This Element outlines the origins and evolution of an international award-winning development intervention, index-based livestock insurance (IBLI), which scaled from a small pilot project in Kenya to a design that underpins drought risk management products and policies across Africa. General insights are provided on i) the economics of poverty, risk management, and drylands development; ii) the evolving use of modern remote sensing and data science tools in development; iii) the science of scaling; and iv) the value and challenges of integrating research with operational implementation to tackle development and humanitarian challenges in some of the world's poorest regions. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Abstract Smallholder farm-households produce most of the crop and livestock products consumed in developing countries. Equitable transitions to low emissions food production will depend on policies that promote a reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) whilst improving these farmers’ livelihoods. Here, using survey data and simulation modelling, we show that Tanzania’s public programme to reduce import dependence through efficiency gains in the dairy sector increases farmer incomes (+12-20%) whilst reducing GHG emissions consistent with the Nationally Determined Contributions pledge (21-39%). Scenario analysis demonstrates that incrementally higher proportions of improved cattle (Bos taurus crosses) in the herd lead to greater reductions in GHGs over the Baseline, whilst benefitting producers through higher marketable surpluses and household income. As East Africa has the highest population density of indigenous Bos indicus cattle in Africa, genetic gains will be a key lever for reconciling food sovereignty with climate mitigation pledges throughout the region.

Climate change is increasingly putting milk production from cattle-based dairy systems in north sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA) under stress, threatening livelihoods and food security. Here we combine livestock heat stress frequency, dry matter feed production and water accessibility data to understand where environmental changes in NSSA’s drylands are jeopardizing cattle milk production. We show that environmental conditions worsened for ∼17% of the study area. Increasing goat and camel populations by ∼14% (∼7.7 million) and ∼10% (∼1.2 million), respectively, while reducing the dairy cattle population by ∼24% (∼5.9 million), could result in ∼0.14 Mt (+5.7%) higher milk production, lower water (−1,683.6 million m 3 , −15.3%) and feed resource (−404.3 Mt, −11.2%) demand—and lower dairy emissions by ∼1,224.6 MtCO 2 e (−7.9%). Shifting herd composition from cattle towards the inclusion of, or replacement with, goats and camels can secure milk production and support NSSA’s dairy production resilience against climate change.

Tanzania's dairy sector is poorly developed, creating reliance on imports for processed, value-added dairy products and threatening food security, particularly when supply chains are disrupted due to market volatility or armed conflicts. The Tanzanian Dairy Development Roadmap is a domestic development initiative that aims to achieve dairy self-sufficiency by 2030. Here, we model different outcomes of the roadmap, finding that adoption of high-yield cattle breeds is essential for reducing dairy import dependency. Avoided land use change resulting from fewer, higher yielding dairy cattle would lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Dairy producers' average incomes could increase despite capital expenditure and land allocation required for the adoption of high-yield breeds. Our findings demonstrate the importance of bottom-up development policies for sustainable food system transformations, which also support food sovereignty, increase incomes for smallholder farmers and contribute towards Tanzania's commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Birthe K Paul, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, An Notenbaert, Alex Nduah Nderi and Polly Ericksen 1 Tropical Forages Program, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi, Kenya 2 Sustainable Livestock Systems Program, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya 3 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Division Bio-Geo-Chemical Processes, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

• The African pastoral farming system consists of livestock and drylands cropbased production that supports an agricultural population of 38 million people of whom 13.4 million in sub-Saharan Africa are extremely poor. • Human population growth has resulted in low per capita livestock and land resources, and while the farming system has options to develop agriculture, further demographic expansion will exacerbate degradation and inequality. • While there is potential for agricultural development, e.g. through intensification and greater market orientation, such development needs to take into account pastoral peoples’ access rights to resources and minimize trade-offs with current land and water users. • Effective drought management, a key to the success of pastoralism, relies on multiple resource management strategies and community interactions. Therefore, there is a need for policies that strengthen the resilience of agriculture and pastoralists livelihoods through, e.g. support to livestock mobility, agricultural insurance, sustainable land and water management as well as monetary and legal support for effective implementation. • Interventions that strengthen opportunities for a future outside agriculture, such as education and job creation, are needed for those living in chronic poverty.

Abstract Rangelands research in arid and semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa has been reinvigorated by renewed government and donor interest in pastoral livelihoods. The challenges facing productive rangelands remain competition over resources, which has been exacerbated by armed conflict; overuse of some rangelands as fragmentation continues; and the failure of many technical and governance interventions. The unresolved development challenges of pastoralism in East and West Africa make it essential to renew long-term empirical research to understand rangeland dynamics and to develop appropriate public policies. The rangelands research agenda at the International Livestock Research Institue focuses on: (i) governance for better rangeland management; (ii) monitoring rangeland conditions to improve development interventions; (iii) understanding the interactions between climate change and the rangelands; and (iv) improving rangelands productivity for pastoral resilience.

Abstract This chapter describes the livestock production systems and resource use (land, water quantity and quality, air and ecosystem services), climate change impacts on ruminant livestock, adaptation of livestock systems to climate change, knowledge gaps on adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock.

Key messages The African pastoral farming system consists of livestock and drylands crop-based production that supports an agricultural population of 38 million people of whom 13.4 million in sub-Saharan Africa are extremely poor. Human population growth has resulted in low per capita livestock and land resources, and while the farming system has options to develop agriculture, further demographic expansion will exacerbate degradation and inequality. While there is potential for agricultural development, e.g. through intensification and greater market orientation, such development needs to take into account pastoral peoples' access rights to resources and minimize trade-offs with current land and water users. Effective drought management, a key to the success of pastoralism, relies on multiple resource management strategies and community interactions. Therefore, there is a need for policies that strengthen the resilience of agriculture and pastoralists livelihoods through, e.g. support to livestock mobility, agricultural insurance, sustainable land and water management as well as monetary and legal support for effective implementation. Interventions that strengthen opportunities for a future outside agriculture, such as education and job creation, are needed for those living in chronic poverty.

In the mid-2000s, several highly-cited papers called for improving conceptual coherence and methodological transparency in vulnerability research to support greater policy relevance. As reducing vulnerability rises on political agendas, identifying empirically validated measures will become increasingly important in the design and evaluation ofmulti-site and multi-scale programmatic interventions. Using a systematic review methodology, we analyze the current range of conceptual frameworks, operationalizations and research methodologies as used in empirical studies of local-level vulnerability in agricultural settings. Detailed analysis of theories and methods provides a platform for moving toward reporting that supports valid comparisons between disparate studies. This in turn, enables the design and implementation of empirically-informed programmatic interventions. The results show that earlier concerns remain relevant. Even the best reported cases do not support aggregated analysis because conceptual ambiguity and methodological heterogeneity renders each study effectively unique. While conceptualization is broadly consolidating around the IPCC framework, declaration of that framework does not predict consistent operationalization. Furthermore, emerging alternative frameworks, especially Vulnerability as Expected Poverty, reveal important limitations of the IPCC framework. Findings also highlight that reporting practices in vulnerability research perpetuate problematic ambiguity. When designing and reporting research, we recommend addressing six key questions that can help specify the objectives of the study: (1) Is this system vulnerable? (2) To what is this system vulnerable? (3) How vulnerable is this system? (4)What is causing this system to be vulnerable? (5) How is vulnerability distributed within the system? (6) What is causing the observed distribution of vulnerability within the system? (C) 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

In the mid‐2000s, several highly‐cited papers called for improving conceptual coherence and methodological transparency in vulnerability research to support greater policy relevance. As reducing vulnerability rises on political agendas, identifying empirically validated measures will become increasingly important in the design and evaluation of multi‐site and multi‐scale programmatic interventions. Using a systematic review methodology, we analyze the current range of conceptual frameworks, operationalizations and research methodologies as used in empirical studies of local‐level vulnerability in agricultural settings. Detailed analysis of theories and methods provides a platform for moving toward reporting that supports valid comparisons between disparate studies. This in turn, enables the design and implementation of empirically‐informed programmatic interventions. The results show that earlier concerns remain relevant. Even the best reported cases do not support aggregated analysis because conceptual ambiguity and methodological heterogeneity renders each study effectively unique. While conceptualization is broadly consolidating around the IPCC framework, declaration of that framework does not predict consistent operationalization. Furthermore, emerging alternative frameworks, especially Vulnerability as Expected Poverty, reveal important limitations of the IPCC framework. Findings also highlight that reporting practices in vulnerability research perpetuate problematic ambiguity. When designing and reporting research, we recommend addressing six key questions that can help specify the objectives of the study: (1) Is this system vulnerable? (2) To what is this system vulnerable? (3) How vulnerable is this system? (4)What is causing this system to be vulnerable? (5) How is vulnerability distributed within the system? (6) What is causing the observed distribution of vulnerability within the system? WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e464. doi: 10.1002/wcc.464 This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

A study was conducted to determine trends of variability and extremes in rainfall and temperature in order to inform stakeholder’s decisions in planning for appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change. Daily rainfall and temperature data sets from 1961 to 2013 were used. Data were subjected to trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests while rainfall and temperature extremes were derived using RClimdex software. Coefficient of variation (CV) in annual rainfall was 25.3, 12.9 and 16.3 % for Mbarara, Masindi and Soroti respectively. Mean daily maximum temperatures were 26.7, 29.6 and 30.8 oC for Mbarara, Masindi and Soroti respectively. Annual total wet days were increasing but not significant (P>0.05). Consecutive wet days (CWD) were increasing only in Mbarara while consecutive dry days, CDDs revealed weak declining trends in Mbarara and stronger significant increasing trends in Soroti (P<0.05). The number of hot days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) was significantly increasing (P< 0.05) in Mbarara and Masindi. The number of warmest nights (TNx) and hottest days (TXx) was also significantly increasing (P<0.05). Mean diurnal temperature range, DTR showed significant decreasing trends in Mbarara and Masindi (P<0.05) while in Soroti it was significantly increasing. The observed increasing temperatures, coupled with declining CWDs and increasing CDDs will most likely result into increased heat stress to livestock, drying of most surface water sources and changes in pasture species composition thus causing a decline in livestock productivity.Key words: Climate change and cattle corridor, hot days, trends, wet days

Many projections of the impact of climate change on the crop, livestock and fishery production sectors of African agriculture are reported in the literature. However, they may be arguably too general to understand the magnitude of impact and to inform adaptation strategies and policy development efforts that are tailored to promoting climate-smart agriculture in the West African region alone. This paper was synthesized from several scholarly literature and aimed at providing up-to-date information on climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, policies and institutional mechanisms that each agriculture subsector had put in place in dealing with climate change and its related issues in West Africa. For each subsector (crop, fishery and livestock), the current status, climate change impacts, mitigation and adaption strategies have been analyzed. In addition, we reviewed recent policy initiatives in the region that foster the development and adoption of climate-smart agricultural options to improve resilience of farming systems and livelihoods of smallholder farmers to climate change risks. From community to national and regional levels, various strategies and policies are also being taken to guide actions and investment for climate-smart agriculture in West Africa.