This chapter examines the effect of changes in the public debt–gross domestic product (GDP) ratio on long, 10 year, interest rates in a panel of 17 countries over the period 1870–2016 controlling for other variables, in particular the world interest rate. Over this long period, one can argue that most of the big changes in public debt were the product of factors largely exogenous to national interest rate determination, such as war, depression or financial crisis. The issue is of current relevance since the Covid-19 pandemic has caused large increases in the ratio of public debt to GDP in many countries. The estimates suggest that it is the change in debt, rather than the level of debt or the deficit that matters for long interest rates. World interest rates have long- and short-run effects on interest rates which are very well determined and close to one. Current inflation has a small but significant effect.

This paper discusses some of the methodological issues involved in analysing military expenditure data, with particular reference to the extended SIPRI data-set. The discussion is organised under the headings of validity, what is the appropriate concept to measure? reliability, how well is it being measured? and comparability, is the same thing being measured over time and space? The paper then considers some of the econometric issues involved in the use of such data.

What type of broadband competition has produced the best results for European consumers? To answer this question, the authors compare different types of competition for their impacts on both price and speed, using data from the EU27 countries for 2008–2011. They examine both inter-platform (DSL, cable, fiber, satellite, and wireless local loop) and intra-platform (unbundled local loop [ULL], bitstream, and resale) competition. The authors find that inter-platform competition and ULL access-based entry are both associated with lower prices and higher speeds, with inter-platform competition having the greater impact, and ULL being the most effective form of intra-platform competition.

Military forces are acquired to provide military capability, the ability to fight and prevail in combat against actual or potential opponents. This capability may be used to attack, defend, deter or maintain peace. The military capability provided by the forces depends on how they are used and what they are used for. How the forces are used involves all the military skills of leadership, strategy, tactics, training, logistics, morale and infrastructure. The elements of the infrastructure are often grouped under the heading C4ISTAR: command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance. What the forces are used for involves the aims of the operation; military forces are used for a very wide range of different purposes and the different purposes have different criteria for success. The how and what interact. Forces organised and trained for war-fighting may be counter-productive when used for peacekeeping, their heavy-handed interventions provoking more conflict. The reverse can be true: a force trained and equipped for peacekeeping, with narrow rules of engagement, may not be able to deliver the required robust response to stop a conflict escalating. Casualty rates that are thought acceptable for one purpose may be unacceptable for another.KeywordsSecurity ObjectiveMilitary CapabilitySecurity Sector ReformHostile IntentCasualty RateThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Military spending, the defence budget, is the first element in the value chain producing security. In principle, governments should determine how much is enough by adjusting military expenditure to the point where the marginal security benefit of a little more military expenditure is equal to the opportunity cost. The opportunity cost is what could be gained if the money was used for other government expenditures, like health and education, or used to reduce taxation, which would allow higher private consumption. While this is a useful framework, reality is more messy, partly because of the difficulty of measuring the marginal security benefits and partly because states are not unified rational actors that could make such decisions. Instead decisions arise from competition between groups. Some, like the arms manufacturers and the military, may have an interest in higher military expenditure and in presenting the threats as more pressing than they are. Others, like the general public, may have little interest in strategic calculation or awareness of potential dangers.KeywordsGross Domestic ProductArmed ForceNuclear WeaponMilitary ExpenditureMilitary SpendingThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

This paper reviews some of the theoretical and econometric issues involved in estimating growth models that include military spending. While the mainstream growth literature has not found military expenditure to be a significant determinant of growth, much of the defence economics literature has found significant effects. The paper argues that this is largely the product of the particular specification, the Feder–Ram model, that has been used in the defence economics literature but not in the mainstream literature. The paper critically evaluates this model, detailing its problems and limitations and suggests that it should be avoided. It also critically evaluates two alternative theoretical approaches, the Augmented Solow and the Barro models, suggesting that they provide a more promising avenue for future research. It concludes with some general comments about modelling the links between military expenditure and growth.

South African Journal of EconomicsVolume 70, Issue 5 p. 789-790 MILITARY SPENDING, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SMALL INDUSTRIALISING ECONOMIES JP Dunne, JP Dunne Professor in Economics, Centre for Applied Research in Economics, Middlesex University Business School, London and University of Cape Town, U.K.Search for more papers by this authorE Nikolaidou, E Nikolaidou City College, Thessaloniki, Affiliated College of the University of Sheffield, U.K.Search for more papers by this authorR Smith, R Smith Professor in Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London.Search for more papers by this author JP Dunne, JP Dunne Professor in Economics, Centre for Applied Research in Economics, Middlesex University Business School, London and University of Cape Town, U.K.Search for more papers by this authorE Nikolaidou, E Nikolaidou City College, Thessaloniki, Affiliated College of the University of Sheffield, U.K.Search for more papers by this authorR Smith, R Smith Professor in Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London.Search for more papers by this author First published: 06 July 2005 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2002.tb00045.xCitations: 24 This is a revised version of a paper presented to the African Econometrics Society Conference, 5–7th July, 2000, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. We are grateful to the participants for comments and to an anonymous referee. Dunne and Smith are grateful to the ESRC for support under grant R00239388 and L138251003 respectively. AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume70, Issue5June 2002Pages 789-790 RelatedInformation

Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the small-sample properties of a mean group and two pooled panel estimators of a regression coefficient when the regressor is I(1). We compare and contrast the effect of I(0) and I(1) errors and homogeneous and heterogeneous coefficients in a design based on two typical PPP panels. The results confirm that the asymptotic theory is relevant to practical applications. With I(0) errors and homogeneous coefficients, the estimators are unbiased, dispersion depends on the signal-noise ratio and falls at rate T(rootN) as expected. With I(1) errors and no cointegration, dispersion falls at rate rootN. When heterogeneity is introduced with I(0) errors, the dispersion of the pooled estimators falls at rate root N, but that of the mean group continues to fall at rate T(rootN). Finally, the pooled estimators are likely to lead to distorted inference both in the case of I(1) errors and the case of I(0) errors with heterogeneous coefficients case. The mean group estimators are, however, are generally correctly sized.

It is now quite common to have panels in which both T, the number of time series observations, and N, the number of groups, are quite large and of the same order of magnitude. The usual practice is either to estimate N separate regressions and calculate the coefficient means, which we call the mean group (MG) estimator, or to pool the data and assume that the slope coefficients and error variances are identical. In this article we propose an intermediate procedure, the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator, which constrains long-run coefficients to be identical but allows short-run coefficients and error variances to differ across groups. We consider both the case where the regressors are stationary and the case where they follow unit root processes, and for both cases derive the asymptotic distribution of the PMG estimators as T tends to infinity. We also provide two empirical applications: aggregate consumption functions for 24 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies over the period 1962-1993, and energy demand functions for 10 Asian developing economies over the period 1974-1990.

Are LNG project really the 'cash cows' of the gas industry and if so, for who the governments or the foreign companies? This major report examines the latest four LNG projects designed to overcome the geographical limitations of the utilisation of Middle Eastern natural gas: QatarGas, RasGas, OmanLNG and YemenLNG. The study analyses in detail the sharing of risks and rewards between governments and foreign companies. It reveals how the four projects lead to quite different profit expectations for the partners involved. The analysis focuses on the following issues: • The contributions of different elements project finance, NGL sales, fiscal regimes and ownership structures to the success or failure of the projects. • The effects of project finance, fiscal regimes and ownership arrangements on the exposure of investors to risks. • The development of unit costs and minimum supply prices for LNG based n actual project details. NG 3, 1998, pp89 + vii, ISBN 1-901795-05-5, £90/US$147

Quantitative methods are an important component of peace research, since many of the issues addressed are inherently quantitative - the frequency and intensity of conflict, or the determination of military expenditures, for instance. This article argues that quantitative peace research could be improved if authors put more emphasis on the substantive issues and less on the mechanical application of rule-based, statistical techniques. After some methodological discussion, seven questions are posed that quantitative researchers might ask themselves; an attempt is made to show why these questions are important. If quantitative peace researchers asked themselves these questions more often, the substantive contribution of quantitative peace research could be increased.

In this paper we suggest an alternative explanation of the high cross-section association between shares of saving and investment in GDP which Feldstein and Horioka (1980) interpret as evidence of low capital mobility. In OECD countries, saving and investment shares appear to be I(1). We show that a solvency constraint implies that the current balance is stationary and thus that saving and investment cointegrate with a unit coefficient irrespective of the degree of capital mobility. It is this long-run relation that the FH cross-section regression captures. Econometric results for 23 OECD countries over the 1960-92 period are consistent with this explanation.

We present evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed-exchange-rate regimes than under gold-based, fixed-exchange-rate regimes. These differences are also reflected in expectations-augmented Phillips curves. We use a two-country macro model, with forward-looking price setters, to demonstrate that higher monetary accomodation of inflation and exchange-rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence. The evidence does not contradict this hypothesis. It supports the hypothesis of forward-looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the Lucas critique.

The Manchester SchoolVolume 59, Issue 4 p. 419-423 SPURIOUS STRUCTURAL STABILITY* R. P. SMITH, R. P. SMITH Birkbeck College, University of LondonSearch for more papers by this author R. P. SMITH, R. P. SMITH Birkbeck College, University of LondonSearch for more papers by this author First published: December 1991 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1991.tb00459.xCitations: 3 * Manuscript received 26.2.90; final version received 16.10.90. AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Citing Literature Volume59, Issue4December 1991Pages 419-423 RelatedInformation