The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU– NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weaker updrafts, indicative of a larger role of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike in squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance in situ stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. This study also examines artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting to zero negative mixing ratios that arise from numerical advection errors. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation and 15%–20% of the precipitation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets, and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University - National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine how vertical wind shear impacts the distribution of vertical motion in the eyewall on both the storm and cloud scale. As in many previous studies, it is found here that the shear produces a wavenumber-1 asymmetry in the time-averaged vertical motion and rainfall. Several mechanisms for this asymmetry are evaluated. The vertical motion asymmetry is qualitatively consistent with an assumed balance between horizontal vorticity advection by the relative flow and stretching of vorticity, with relative asymmetric inflow (convergence) at low levels and outflow (divergence) at upper levels on the downshear side of the eyewall. The simulation results also show that the upward motion portion of the eyewall asymmetry is located in the direction of vortex tilt, consistent with the vertical motion that required to maintain dynamic balance. Variations in the direction and magnitude of the tilt are consistent with the presence of a vortex Rossby wave quasi mode, which is characterized by a damped precession of the upper vortex relative to the lower vortex.While the time-averaged vertical motion is characterized by ascent in a shear-induced wavenumber-1 asymmetry, the instantaneous vertical motion is typically associated with deep updraft towers that generally form on the downtilt-right side of the eyewall and dissipate on the downtilt- left side. The updrafts towers are typically associated with eyewall mesovortices rotating cyclonically around the eyewall and result from an interaction between the shear-induced relative asymmetric flow and the cyclonic circulations of the mesovortices. The eyewall mesovortices may persist for more than one orbit around the eyewall and, in these cases, can initiate multiple episodes of upward motion.

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University - National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Erin (2001) at high resolution (4-km spacing) from its early development as a tropical depression on 7 September 2001, through a period of rapid intensification into a strong hurricane ( 8 - 9 September), and finally into a stage during which it maintains its intensity on 10 September. These three stages of formation, intensification, and maintenance in the simulation are in good agreement with the observed evolution of Erin. The simulation shows that during the formation and early portions of the intensification stages, intensification is favored because the environmental wind shear is weak and the system moves over a warm tongue of water. As Erin intensifies, the wind shear gradually increases with the approach of an upper-level trough and strengthening of a low-level high pressure system. By 10 September, the wind shear peaks and begins to decrease, the storm moves over slightly cooler waters, and the intensification ends. Important structural changes occur at this time as the outer precipitation shifts from the northeastern and eastern sides to the western side of the eye. A secondary wind maximum and an outer eyewall begin to develop as precipitation begins to surround the entire eye. The simulation is used to investigate the role of vertical wind shear in the changes of the precipitation structure that took place between 9 and 10 September by examining the effects of changes in storm-relative flow and changes in the shear-induced tilt. Qualitative agreement is found between the divergence pattern and advection of vorticity by the relative flow with convergence (divergence) generally associated with asymmetric inflow (outflow) in the eyewall region. The shift in the outer precipitation is consistent with a shift in the low-level relative inflow from the northeastern to the northwestern side of the storm. The changes in the relative flow are associated with changes in the environmental winds as the hurricane moves relative to the upper trough and the low-level high pressure system. Examination of the shear-induced tilt of the vortex shows that the change in the tilt direction is greater than that of the shear direction as the tilt shifts from a northerly orientation to northwesterly. Consistent with theory for adiabatic vortices, the maximum low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (and the maximum upward motion) occurs in the direction of tilt. Consequently, both mechanisms may play roles in the changes in the precipitation pattern.

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high ( low) bias for low ( high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5 degrees-resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm h(-1) to 20% at 14 mm h(-1). Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%-80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5 resolution is relatively small ( less than 6% at 5 mm day(-1)) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%-35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%-15% at 5 mm day(-1), with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

Using the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity profiles, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) influence on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) is simulated numerically with the MM5 model. The warmth and dryness of the SAL (the thermodynamic effect) is assimilated by use of the nudging technique, which enables the model thermodynamic state to be relaxed to the profiles of the AIRS retrieved data for the regions without cloud contamination. By incorporating the AIRS data, MM5 better simulates the large‐scale flow patterns and the timing and location of the formation of Hurricane Isabel and its subsequent track. By comparing with an experiment without nudging of the AIRS data, it is shown that the SAL may have delayed the formation of Hurricane Isabel and inhibited the development of another tropical disturbance to the east. This case study confirms the argument by Dunion and Velden (2004) that the SAL can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing the vertical wind shear, reducing the mean relative humidity, and stabilizing the environment at lower levels.

Abstract While the previous studies of the impacts of air–sea interaction on tropical cyclones (TCs) generally agree on significant reduction in intensity and little change in track, they did not further explore the relative roles of the weak symmetric and strong asymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies relative to the TC center. These issues are investigated numerically with a coupled hurricane–ocean model in this study. Despite the relatively small magnitude compared to the asymmetric component of the resulting cooling, the symmetric cooling plays a decisive role in weakening TC intensity. A likely reason is that the symmetric cooling directly reduces the TC intensity, while the asymmetric cooling affects the intensity through the resulting TC asymmetries, which are mainly confined to the lower boundary and much weaker than those resulting from large-scale environmental influences. The differences in TC tracks between the coupled and fixed SST experiments are generally small because of the com...

The influence of uniform large-scale flow, the beta effect, and vertical shear of the environmental flow on hurricane intensity is investigated in the context of the induced convective or potential vorticity asymmetries in the core region with a hydrostatic primitive equation hurricane model. In agreement with previous studies, imposition of one of these environmental effects weakens the simulated tropical cyclones. In response to the environmental influence, significant wavenumber-1 asymmetries develop. Asymmetric and symmetric tendencies of the mean radial and azimuthal winds and temperature associated with the environment-induced convective asymmetries are evaluated. The inhibiting effects of environmental influences are closely associated with the resulting eddy momentum fluxes, which tend to decelerate tangential and radial winds in the inflow and outflow layers. The corresponding changes in the symmetric circulation tend to counteract the deceleration effect. The net effect is a moderate weakening of the mean tangential and radial winds. The reduced radial wind can be viewed as an anomalous secondary radial circulation with inflow in the upper troposphere and outflow in the lower troposphere, weakening the mean secondary radial circulation.

Recent improvements in a method for remotely sensing precipitation and latent heating distributions based upon satellite-borne, passive microwave radiometer observations are summarized. In applications to synthetic data, estimated rainfall rates at sensor footprint-scale (14 km) ire subject to significant random errors, but these errors are substantially reduced by spatial-averaging rain rate and latent heating profile estimates exhibit biases that reduced by spatial averaging. After spatial-avera : arise front a lack of specificity in the information contained in the microwave radiance data.The retrieval method is applied to observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Radiometer (TMI). Retrieved instantaneous precipitation and heating distributions show general self-consistency and delineate plausible storm structures in an application to TMI observations of a mesoscale convective system over the tropical North Atlantic. Well-known climatoloalcal distributions of rainfall are reproduced by global, monthly-mean TMI precipitation estimates from July 2000. Zonal-mean heating profiles in the Tropics from the same period exhibit a primary maximum of heating near 7 km altitude and a secondary peak near 3 km. while at higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, a vertical structure with heating aloft and cooling at. lower altitudes is derived.

A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km on the finest nested mesh. The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of finescale simulation. The time-averaged structure is characterized by a wavenumber-1 asymmetry with maximum low-level vertical motions and near-surface inflow in the left-front quadrant relative to the nearly aligned storm motion and mean wind shear vectors and strong outflow just above the boundary layer collocated with the updrafts. Instantaneous distributions of radial flow, vertical motion, and precipitation are strongly modified by a wavenumber-2 asymmetry that rotates cyclonically around the center at about half the speed of the mean tangential winds, consistent with the theory for vortex Rossby waves.The time-mean asymmetric vertical motion is comprised of small-scale convective updrafts that at any given time cover only a small portion of the eyewall area, but account for a majority of the updraft mass flux, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Calculations of buoyancy indicate that eyewall updrafts are positively buoyant with respect to an environment that includes the vortex-scale warm core structure. Air parcels entering the eyewall in the boundary layer are initially accelerated upward by vertical pressure gradient forces, but once above the boundary layer, they accelerate upward because of buoyancy forces. The buoyancy is typically achieved along outward-sloping paths in a layer characterized by conditional symmetric instability. However, the strong low-level outflow above the boundary layer in the eyewall displaces rising parcels out from under the warm core so that they become unstable to vertical displacements. Consequently, the eyewall updrafts are generally the result of convective rather than symmetric instability. A key source for the buoyancy is the energy gained from surface fluxes of moisture and heat by select parcels that originate from outside of the eyewall in the lowest part of the boundary layer, penetrate furthest into the eye, and then accelerate outward sharply while rising out of the boundary layer. Occasionally, air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts, suggesting episodic rather than continuous venting of the eye air into the eyewall.

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Abstract The effectiveness of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique for creating “bogus” vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is evaluated in this study. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to generate initial vortices for Hurricane Georges and Bonnie (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea level pressure and wind information into a mesoscale numerical model (MM5). Several different strategies are tested for investigating the sensitivity of the initial vortex representation to the type of bogus information. While some of the results in this study confirm conclusions made in previous studies, some significant differences are obtained regarding the role of bogus wind data in creating a realistic bogus vortex. In contrast with previous studies in which the bogus wind data had only a marginal impact on creating a realistic hurricane, this study concludes that the wind information is very important because 1) with assimilation of only bogus sea ...

Hurricane Bob (1991) is simulated using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. The simulation is conducted for a 24-h period at 4-km resolution and for a 6-h period at 1.3-km resolution. The 4-km simulation is able to fairly realistically capture the intensity and structure of the storm. The 1.3-km simulation depicts very small-scale convective structures and produces a convective rain band outside of the eye wall that did not occur in the 4-km simulation. The 1.3-km results are used to characterize several kinematic structures in the storm, including low-level outflow in the eye wall, multiple outflows at upper levels, and the convective rain band structure outside of the eye wall. Thermodynamic characteristics of air parcels flowing into and rising within the eye wall will also be examined through trajectory calculations.

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is used to simulate Hurricane Bob (1991) using grids nested to high resolution (4 km). Tests are conducted to determine the sensitivity of the simulation to the available planetary boundary layer parameterizations, including the bulk aerodynamic, Blackadar, Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model, and Burk-Thompson boundary layer schemes. Significant sensitivity is seen, with minimum central pressures varying by up to 16 mb and maximum winds by 15 m s(-1). The Burk-Thompson and bulk aerodynamic boundary layer schemes produced the strongest storms while the MRF scheme produced the weakest storm. Simulated horizontal precipitation structures varied substantially between the different PBL schemes, suggesting that accurate forecasts of precipitation in hurricanes can be just as sensitive to the formulation of the PBL as they are to the cloud microphysical parameterizations.Each PBL scheme is different in its formulation of the vertical mixing within the PBL and the surface fluxes, with the exception of the MRF and Blackadar schemes, which share essentially the same surface flux parameterization. Detailed analyses of the PBL schemes describe the key differences in the surface fluxes and how they impact storm intensity. In order to isolate the effects of vertical mixing and surfaces fluxes, simulations were conducted in which each of the surface flux schemes was used in conjunction with the same vertical mixing scheme, and vice versa. These experiments indicate that simulated intensity is largely determined by the surface fluxes rather than by the vertical mixing, with the exception of the MRF PBL case, in which excessively deep vertical mixing acts to dry the lower PBL and reduce hurricane intensity. Simulations that vary only the surface fluxes suggest that the intensity of the simulated hurricane increases with increasing values of the ratio of the exchange coefficients for enthalpy and momentum, C-k/C-D. However, even for identical values of C-k/C-D, the simulated intensity varies depending on the wind speed dependence of the surface roughness parameter z(o).

The role of surface friction in modifying cord fronts as they make landfall in regions of steep coastal orography is examined by means of idealized simulations. Both the effects of the surface-roughness change at the coast in the absence of orography and the effects of orography are considered. Flow over a large and abrupt change in surface roughness generates an inertia-gravity wave above the boundary layer with characteristics similar to that associated with how over a plateau. Deceleration of the cross-coast flow occurs over land, as well as for a short distance upstream, and causes retardation of frontal motion. A prescribed northerly postfrontal jet weakens rapidly after landfall. Maximum vertical motions are several centimeters per second; however, only small rainfall enhancement is expected since the updraft is very narrow and produces only small vertical displacements.Friction modifies the flaw over the orography by increasing the upstream flow deceleration and reducing the magnitude of the barrier jet. The reduction of the barrier-jet strength (when compared to inviscid simulations) by surface friction becomes more pronounced as the mountain forcing of the jet increases. With surface friction, frontal-motion retardation by the orography is strong and upstream frontogenesis is enhanced. The frontal updraft is strongest at the coast and remains strong far a short distance inland along the lower portion of the windward slope. The coastal enhancement of the frontal updraft results from the combined effects of the orography and the surface-roughness change, but large parcel displacements are due mainly to the orographic forcing. Along-coast winds in the coastal zone during frontal passage are approximately determined by a superposition of the southerly barrier jet and the frontal jets.