Biofouling of ships and boats is a dominant global transport pathway for marine invasive species. Many marine non-indigenous species (NIS) can only be entrained by vessels and subsequently ‘discharged’ during their short-lived but highly mobile larval form. This means their ability to spread is reliant on vessels arriving in suitable habitat during spawning. Vessel arrivals and spawning are, however, both transient events. The prevalence of synchrony between shipping traffic and spawning and its influence on the spread of marine NIS is not well understood, however. Using New Zealand as a case study, we show that seasonality of shipping traffic is much more prevalent for domestic (coastwise) shipping traffic, than for international shipping arriving from overseas. Seasonality in ship arrivals occurred in 35 of 58 nationwide locations that receive commercial vessels. In many locations (ports) exhibiting seasonality, peaks in shipping coincide with peaks in reproductive outputs of spring-summer spawning NIS. This suggests that troughs in vessel traffic during cooler months may play an important role in limiting secondary spread of autumn and winter spawning NIS throughout New Zealand. Our findings indicate the importance of incorporating seasonality in models of vessel-mediated spread and the need for more empirical data on the timing of introduction and entrainment events. They also point to an opportunity to optimise surveillance and vector management efforts during periods of peak synchronicity.

Biodiversity indicators measure progress toward global biodiversity goals, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. A suite of indicators is typically needed to capture the complexity of biodiversity. For the suite to be effective, it needs to capture the important aspects of the system, without over-representing some at the expense of others. It is therefore important to identify redundancies and contradictions between indicators within a suite. Comparing indicators derived from independent input data can also serve as a validation of indicator accuracy, or alternatively, identify unexpected behaviour and potential flaws or incompatibilities in data or construction. We examined the relationships between eight widely adopted global biodiversity indicators, all proposed for use in the monitoring framework of the Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework. We focused on the relationships between indicators driven by landuse data and those driven by species observations, testing for pairwise and multivariate correlations between indicator values for ecoregions. We used hierarchical clustering to identify spatial patterns in relationships between landuse and species response indicators. We found no strong correlation between landuse and species-response indicators in ecoregions with high landuse. Reasons for disagreement among indicators may include inaccurate, or coarse spatial data and mismatched baselines. We did find strong correlations between indicators sharing input data. We suggest that indicators selected for the Kunming-Montreal framework be systematically reviewed for correlations and recommend that suites of indicators should consider the independence of input data sources to minimise the risk of using correlated or biased measures of conservation progress.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity set the agenda for global aspirations and action to reverse biodiversity loss. The GBF includes an explicit goal for maintaining and restoring biodiversity, encompassing ecosystems, species and genetic diversity (goal A), targets for ecosystem protection and restoration and headline indicators to track progress and guide action 1 . One of the headline indicators is the Red List of Ecosystems 2 , the global standard for ecosystem risk assessment. The Red List of Ecosystems provides a systematic framework for collating, analysing and synthesizing data on ecosystems, including their distribution, integrity and risk of collapse 3 . Here, we examine how it can contribute to implementing the GBF, as well as monitoring progress. We find that the Red List of Ecosystems provides common theory and practical data, while fostering collaboration, cross-sector cooperation and knowledge sharing, with important roles in 16 of the 23 targets. In particular, ecosystem maps, descriptions and risk categories are key to spatial planning for halting loss, restoration and protection (targets 1, 2 and 3). The Red List of Ecosystems is therefore well-placed to aid Parties to the GBF as they assess, plan and act to achieve the targets and goals. We outline future work to further strengthen this potential and improve biodiversity outcomes, including expanding spatial coverage of Red List of Ecosystems assessments and partnerships between practitioners, policy-makers and scientists.

Recreational vessels are an important pathway for spreading marine non-indigenous species (NIS) around coastal environments globally. However, most vessels are not tracked, limiting our ability to map their movements and identify locations at greater risk of NIS introductions. Using New Zealand as a case study, we quantified spread and risk patterns of recreational vessel movements, using a web-based survey allowing the more than 1,800 respondents to map significant trips with over 12,000 visits. These vessel routes were used to build a network model representing nationwide recreational vessel movements. Two proxies were used to quantify the risk of introduction of marine NIS: (i) incoming hull length and (ii) cumulative residency periods at sites. There was significant variation in the distances travelled, the destinations they visited and the duration of their stays. New Zealand's recreational boating network contained 317 destinations with over 4,000 unique connections, concentrated within two distinct areas of the country. Network-based metrics and risk proxies quantified the relative importance of domestic locations as incursion or spreading hubs for NIS. This approach highlighted several areas that pose high relative biosecurity risk within the national network, but are underrepresented within current surveillance programmes. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates how the movement dynamics of recreational vessels can be quantified at a regional scale to inform proactive management. The identification of spreading hubs and locations at particular risk of NIS introductions, enables managers to design risk-based and effective surveillance and monitoring programmes. Our network-based approach to determine the biosecurity implications posed by recreational vessels is transferable to other parts of the world. It enables managers to understand the distribution of risk within an area of interest (e.g. a jurisdiction) and develop optimised approaches for mitigating impact. Our study demonstrates how the movement dynamics of recreational vessels can be quantified at a regional scale to inform proactive management. The identification of spreading hubs and locations at particular risk of non-indigenous species introductions, enables managers to design risk-based and effective surveillance and monitoring programmes. Our network-based approach to determine the biosecurity implications posed by recreational vessels is transferable to other parts of the world. It enables managers to understand the distribution of risk within an area of interest (e.g. a jurisdiction) and develop optimised approaches for mitigating impact.image

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are the preferred tool for preventing marine biodiversity loss, as reflected in international protected area targets. Although the area covered by MPAs is expanding, there is a concern that opposition from resource users is driving them into already low-use locations, whereas high-pressure areas remain unprotected, which has serious implications for biodiversity conservation. We tested the spatial relationships between different human-induced pressures on marine biodiversity and global MPAs. We used global, modeled pressure data and the World Database on Protected Areas to calculate the levels of 15 different human-induced pressures inside and outside the world's MPAs. We fitted binomial generalized linear models to the data to determine whether each pressure had a positive or negative effect on the likelihood of an area being protected and whether this effect changed with different categories of protection. Pelagic and artisanal fishing, shipping, and introductions of invasive species by ships had a negative relationship with protection, and this relationship persisted under even the least restrictive categories of protection (e.g., protected areas classified as category VI under the International Union for Conservation of Nature, a category that permits sustainable use). In contrast, pressures from dispersed, diffusive sources (e.g., pollution and ocean acidification) had positive relationships with protection. Our results showed that MPAs are systematically established in areas where there is low political opposition, limiting the capacity of existing MPAs to manage key drivers of biodiversity loss. We suggest that conservation efforts focus on biodiversity outcomes and effective reduction of pressures rather than prescribing area-based targets, and that alternative approaches to conservation are needed in areas where protection is not feasible.

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision‐making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Abstract It is nearly three decades since the world recognized the need for a global multilateral treaty aiming to address accelerating biodiversity loss. However, biodiversity continues to decline at a concerning rate. Drawing on lessons from the implementation of the current strategic plan of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the 2010 Aichi Targets, we highlight three interlinked core areas, which require attention and improvement in the development of the post‐2020 Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. They are: (1) developing robust theories of change which define agreed, adaptive plans for achieving targets; (2) using models to evaluate assumptions and effectiveness of different plans and targets; and (3) identifying the common but differentiated responsibilities of different actors/states/countries within these plans. We demonstrate how future multilateral agreements must not focus only on what needs to be done but also on how it should be done, using measurable steps, which make sense at the scales at which biodiversity change happens.

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.

The Pacific Island Regional Ocean Policy (PIROP), which was released in 2002, provided the framework for ocean governance in the Pacific region. Since then there have been a myriad of policy documents and institutional arrangements that have been developed to address ocean governance issues, however, little progress has occurred with regard to the actual implementation of PIROP. This paper examines the region's progress in establishing integrated oceans management, and how this fits with the use of marine spatial planning and area based management tools, such as marine protected areas. It argues that policy making in this region encounters the usual difficulties with integrated policy approaches experienced elsewhere but that these difficulties are further accentuated when applied to developing nations that are highly dependent on external support. It suggests a way forward for the future with development of action plans, implementation and the practical application of those plans including a regional contextualisation/analysis of progress against regional objectives.