Part I: Signs of Change Part II: Forcing Change Part III: Driving Climate Change Part IV: Expected Consequences Part V: Responding to Change Part VI: Committing to Solutions Part VII: Climate Change Data

In the last decade, increasing evidence of climate change fostered the development of multiple initiatives for adaptation. However, there are few examples in which adaptation has been successfully implemented, evidencing the need for improving understanding about the socio-institutional context of adaptation processes and the underlying causes of barriers to adaptation. In this research, we developed a stakeholder-based assessment of barriers to the adoption of climate adaptation options for irrigation in the Guadiana basin, one of Spain’s most climate-vulnerable basins. Based on social network mapping, we elicited potential barriers to adaptation in the water sector. Using stakeholder questionnaires, we assessed the impact of the identified barriers on the implementation of selected adaptation measures. Results highlight the low acceptance of planned adaptation by stakeholders, and the lack of awareness and of a common understanding among the different actors as preeminent barriers to adaptation, potentially caused by insufficient interactions between water users, the scientific community and environmental groups. The role of the government as a catalyst of those interactions can be crucial for overcoming those barriers. Acknowledged water management instruments, such as water tariffs and quotas, may face the greatest barriers, while widely accepted adaptation measures, such as irrigation modernisation, can contribute to overcoming the obstacles for the implementation of more controversial measures. Overall, the results of this research contribute to climate change adaptation providing a better understanding of the social dimension of adaptation processes, potential barriers to overcome and the feasibility of specific measures.

This highly acclaimed atlas distills the vast science of climate change, providing a reliable and insightful guide to this rapidly growing field. Since the 2006 publication of the first edition, climate change has climbed even higher up the global agenda. This new edition reflects the latest developments in research and the impact of climate change, and in current efforts to mitigate and adapt to changes in the world's weather. The atlas covers a wide range of topics, including warning signs, vulnerable populations, health impacts, renewable energy, emissions reduction, personal and public action. The third edition includes new or additional coverage of a number of topics, including agreements reached in Copenhagen and Cancun, ocean warming and increased acidity, the economic impact of climate change, and advantages gained by communities and business from adapting to climate change. The extensive maps and graphics have been updated with new data, making this edition once again an essential resource for everyone concerned with this pressing subject.

Conservation organizations are increasingly applying adaptive capacity assessments in response to escalating climate change impacts. These assessments are essential to identify climate risks to ecosystems, prioritize management interventions, maximize the effectiveness of conservation actions, and ensure conservation resources are allocated appropriately. Despite an extensive literature on the topic, there is little agreement on the most relevant factors needed to support local scale initiatives, and additional guidance is needed to clarify how adaptive capacity should be assessed. This article discusses why adaptive capacity assessment represents a critical tool supporting conservation planning and management. It also evaluates key factors guiding conservation NGOs conducting these assessments in tropical island communities, and explores alternative priorities based on input from academic experts and key local stakeholders. Our results demonstrate that important differences exist between local stakeholders and nonlocal academic experts on key factors affecting adaptation and coping mechanisms. The exclusion of local community input affects the validity of adaptive capacity assessment findings, and has significant implications for the prioritization and effectiveness of conservation strategies and funding allocation.

Climate change threatens tropical coastal communities and ecosystems. Governments, resource managers, and communities recognize the value of assessing the social and ecological impacts of climate change, but there is little consensus on the most effective framework to support vulnerability and adaptation assessments. The framework presented in this research is based on a gap analysis developed from the recommendations of climate and adaptation experts. The article highlights social and ecological factors that affect vulnerability to climate change; adaptive capacity and adaptation options informing policy and conservation management decisions; and a methodology including criteria to assess current and future vulnerability to climate change. The framework is intended for conservation practitioners working in developing countries, small island nations, and traditional communities. It identifies core components that assess climate change impacts on coastal communities and environments at the local scale, and supports the identification of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Although the literature supporting vulnerability adaptation assessments is extensive, little emphasis has been placed on the systematic validation of these tools. To address this, we validate the framework using the Delphi technique, a group facilitation technique used to achieve convergence of expert opinion, and address gaps in previous vulnerability assessments.

Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of climate change, evidencing the need to develop integrated tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. This research presents a hydro-economic model of the Middle-Guadiana basin, Spain, to assess potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and options for adaptation. It combines a farm-based economic optimisation model with the hydrologic model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. Simulated scenarios include a severe A2 climate change scenario up to 2070, two policy-based adaptation scenarios, and autonomous adaptation. Results show that climate change may impact severely irrigation systems reducing water availability and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements. The risk faced by farmers is determined by technology and water use efficiency but also by spatial location and decisions made in neighbouring irrigation areas. The analysis of adaptation strategies underscores the role of current EU water policy in facilitating adaptation. Overall, the applied framework proved to be a useful tool for supporting water and climate change policy-making. It contributes to improve understanding about potential impacts of climate change, multi-scale vulnerability and the scope for adaptation.

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

More than a century has passed since some of the earliest scientific efforts at understanding the variability of tropical and subtropical rainfall (Blanford 1884), while Walker made extra-ordinary progress in uncovering the three larg-est known modes of interannual atmospheric variability (Walker 1930; Walker & Bliss 1930; 1932). Despite this promising grounding, seasonal forecasts of rainfall have only become op-erational in the last ten years or so (see Hulme et al. 1992).With its marked record of droughts, high interannual variability of rainfall and its largely agricultural economy, Africa is a prime potential benefactor of seasonal forecasting. This paper reviews recent developments in both climate prediction and the use of climate forecasts in promoting household food security.

1. Introduction: setting and problem definition 2. The Adaptation Pathway –2.1 Stage 1: appraising risks and opportunities •Step 1: Impact analysis •Step 2: Policy analysis •Step 3: Socio-institutional analysis –2.2 Stage 2: appraising and choosing adaptation opt ions •Step 4: identifying and prioritizing adaptation o ptions 3. Conclusions

The shift from framing climate change adaptation as vulnerabilityimpacts to adaptation pathways is also a shift from a predict-and-provide approaches to understanding dynamic processes. Studies of the economics of adaptation relying only on the comparative statics of reference and climate impacts scenarios ignore the more challenging frontier of representing decision processes and uncertainty. The logic of the shift to dynamic-pathway approaches is widely accepted in principal. Effective analytical tools are only beginning to appear. Further case studies are required to explore the matrix of uncertainty in future climate conditions against the range of metrics for valuing impacts in decision processes. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:161170. doi: 10.1002/wcc.157

In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rural livelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies' implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rural livelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.