Tensor methods are not commonly used for standard insurance pricing or reserve calculations, which often rely on traditional statistical and actuarial techniques. However, they can be highly useful in advanced scenarios with multidimensional data structures, nonlinear correlations, or complex interactions among different data types.
The percentage of uninsured motorists has been a topic of interest to various stakeholders for decades. While the percentage has dipped slightly over the last 15 years using Insurance Research Council (IRC) data, it remains high and varies widely at the state level throughout the United States. In this study we consider a legislative trend that is expected to influence the percentage of uninsured motorists and the number of licensed drivers. Immediately following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, states restricted eligible applicants for state-issued driver's licenses. However, over the past 12 years that trend has reversed, with an increasing number of states now allowing undocumented immigrants to become licensed drivers. This study analyzes the impact of this legislative change on the uninsured motorist rates. Our research also uses updated data from the IRC's 2021 Uninsured Motorist study. In all our model specifications, the effect of the undocumented-immigrant-to-population ratio significantly increases the uninsured motorist rate. The test for the structural change in the data indicated that there was none with respect to states offering driver's licenses but there was for states that did not offer the same privileges. [Key words: uninsured motorists, regulations, undocumented immigrants, driver's licenses, unauthorized immigrant license policies].
Development of a generic model for the valuation of Labor Liabilities under the international standards IAS 19 and FASB 87, for defined benefits, generally granted in Latin American countries, following [1].The contribution of this work is to provide a detailed valuation tool for defined benefits that depend structurally on a salary and creditable service over time.Likewise, assess a defined benefit plan for termination of employment under 2 very similar current approaches, but with different liabilities [2].
One of the most important aspects in actuarial valuations of a defined benefit plan type (severance schemes) is the forecast of the Projected Benefit Obligation (P) of a new individual or employee, given certain characteristics of a new employee. It is then a matter of estimating the actuarial liabilities of the company's employees in a sample and being able to estimate the new ones. This paper adds to previous research, using an application from company-level data, in the aggregate, where in this case they are employees of the same company.
It is of vital importance to explore the relationship between pensions and inflationary levels because this forms a link between social policy and economic development in the context of Venezuela’s challenging economy and its impact on the development of pension systems. With such rampant inflation, companies must adjust the rates of salary increases to avoid a significant decrease in the purchasing power of income from defined benefit plans. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. Consequently, the cost of interest associated with the actuarial liability of the Benefit plans increases substantially in the next fiscal period to the actuarial valuation, sometimes compromising its sustainability over time. In order to minimize this problem, two scenarios for calculating the interest rate are proposed to smooth out this volatile effect; both are based on a geometric average with the expectation of working life or with the duration of the obligations. We are careful to use a reasonable interest rate that is not so high as to compromise the cash flow, resulting in skewed annual results of the companies. Our research seeks to find the possibility of using an average geometric rate of future interest rates expressed as an expected value to discount obligations. We formulate and actuarially evaluate two different scenarios, based on job expectations and Macaulay's duration, of the obligations that allow the sustainability of the plan in an environment of extremely high inflation. To illustrate the impact of the basic annual expenditure of the period, the results of an actuarial valuation of an actual Venezuelan company were utilized. Despite some companies adjusting their book reserves increasingly through a geometric progression, the amounts associated with the costs of interest would be huge in any such adjustment pattern. Therefore, we suggest adoption of one of the alternatives described in the research.
This research uses a survey mechanism to query actuarial science programs as to the usage of industry advisory boards at such programs in the U.S. The study's methodology employs a questionnaire to examine the formation, governance, and utilization of such entities. The data collected identify the most widespread purposes and composition of industry advisory boards. The highest rated outputs of board members, in order, are addressing curriculum issues, guest speaker suggestions, and interactions with students via mock interviews and student presentations. A comparison of results to a similar survey of advisory boards at risk management and insurance programs is conducted as well.
The primary objective of this research is to determine the impact of actuarial assumptions for work liability valuations in Venezuela. The time frame of interest to the study finds that Venezuela has and continues to experience an extremely volatile rate of inflation. In such an environment, it is imperative that the discount rate be set as a function of the inflation rate plus a premium. This study is focused on the challenges of adopting such a policy given the absence of a well-developed capital market.
For organizations facing changes in a social benefit system that mandates employer contributions, a major problem facing decision-makers is forecasting the impact of those changes for companies in different sectors of the economy. Such is the case in Venezuela at the time of this study. When a company employs a relatively large number of employees, accurately determining the impact of the maximum it can be quite laborious and complicated. The processing of information on an individualized basis can be nearly impossible when facing time constraints, making the development of a model imperative. In this research study, we tackle the issues raised above by identifying key variables. The impact is then explained using a reduced multivariable statistical model. This study has used a proprietary data set to model a methodology for measuring the rigor of these regulatory changes. Three key explanatory variables – the number of employees; the cumulative warranty; the monthly average full salary – are analyzed to determine the impact on those companies. Among these, the most important variable and in terms of statistical significance is the amount of accumulated warranty at five percent, followed by the salary and lastly the number of employees in the company.
In addition to premiums, investment income is one of the two main sources of capital for property-casualty (P/C) insurance companies. This study investigates short-term equity trading behavior of P/C insurers in the United States in 2007 and 2008, and finds that over 27 percent of non-group affiliated insurers engage in short-term equity trading activity. When it comes to the medium of short-term equity trading, stocks categorized as Industrial and Miscellaneous Stocks are the most frequently utilized with Financial Institutions’ stocks a distant second. This is due to a larger number of stocks falling under these two categories. However, in terms of the mean size of transactions, the average investment in preferred stock ranges from four to five times larger than that of common stocks during the period of interest in this study. The mean holding period for short-term common equity transaction is about 100 and 95 days in 2007 and 2008, respectively. We also identify factors associated with P/C insurers’ short-term equity trading behavior. Logistic regressions show that financial variables are more strongly tied to insurers’ short-term equity trading behavior than underwriting and demographic variables.
The property insurance industry in China has achieved rapid growth since 1980s. However, further growth and development has been restricted for several reasons. While there are a variety of property insurance products, the product portfolio is unbalanced. Also, the early stages of these products are too simple to meet the diverse requirements of policyholders. Finally, certain products of different companies are somewhat duplicative. Based on the Structure Conduct Performance (SCP) analytical framework, the research paper analyzes various management index indicators and market competitive behaviors of China’s property insurance market in recent years. Utilizing germane data to perform an empirical study model, this paper elaborates on the importance of product structure on the property insurance market and proposes related measurements of practical and theoretical significance. These include the delicate management of the auto insurance business, expansion of the non-automobile property business, etc. The paper also provides suggestions on improving the current business structure, increasing the industry’s probability of profitability, lowering management risk, strengthening the competitiveness of the business enterprise, and achieving a more productive and efficient increase in the development of China’s promising property insurance market.
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the number of undocumented immigrants and the fraction of uninsured motorists using a crosssectional analysis of all states plus the District of Columbia. We find that an increase in an endogenously determined illegal immigration relative to the labor force of one percentage point in states that do not require lawful presence (for example, Utah and New Mexico) increases uninsured motorists (UM) by almost two percentage points, all else equal. In addition, larger percentages of uninsured motorists are accompanied by more motor vehicle crash fatalities, a result which is contrary to previous findings in the literature. 1. Associate Professor , Department of Finance and Business Law, P.O. Box 30001/MSC 3FIN, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001. (505) 646-5253; (505) 6462820 (fax). tquery@nmsu.edu. 2. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Quantitative Sciences, Duquesne University, 600 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15282. (412) 396-2215; (412) 396-4764 (fax). kumazawar@duq.edu. © 2011 National Association of Insurance Commissioners Journal of Insurance Regulation
Global inflation and economic cyclical fluctuations have accelerated the depreciation rate of monetary assets. Safeguarding the purchasing power of long-term life insurance products' cash flow becomes an issue of great theoretical and practical significance for life insurance. Using data from China, this article designs a long-term life insurance policy denominated in ounces of gold, and compares it with traditional long-term life insurance policies. For the time frame of interest to this study, we confirm that a long-term life insurance policy denominated in ounces of gold provided significant protection against the effects of inflation and economic cyclical fluctuations. We propose a risk management program aimed at price risk, interest rate risk, currency risk and investment risk as a result of the insurance policy denominated in ounces. Our recommended strategy includes an inducing index method to hedge against the losses caused by price fluctuations of gold.
In this paper, we investigate the rebuild or repair decision that property owners face after damages caused by catastrophic hurricanes such as Katrina in New Orleans. In particular, we consider how the degree of risk aversion and uncertainty affect the decision-making process. A theoretical model is developed using the real-options framework of Dixit and Pindyck (1994). According to the model, the decision to rebuild a property is reached much later when there is a high degree of uncertainty over future social costs and a high discount rate. We demonstrate these effects using simulations with actual numbers from Hurricane Katrina.
Using 189 commercial bank mergers between 1997 and 2004, a positive impact of the merger activity on bank liquidity creation is demonstrated. Consistent with the deposit insurance hypothesis, it is found that banks with higher levels of deposit insurance create higher levels of liquidity around mergers. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the level of equity capital explains the change in liquidity creation around mergers for the sample of large acquirers. Also it is shown that for the sample of small acquirers there is a negative relationship between the level of economic growth and changes in liquidity creation around mergers.
Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro-Estimation, edited by Jonathan Gruber and David A. Wise, 2004, Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro-Estimation is the second volume of an ongoing research project studying the relationship between social security and labor supply. In the first volume, Gruber and Wise reveal strong disincentives to continue working at older ages in developed countries. In many social security programs, provisions are revealed that essentially encourage retirement by reducing total compensation for working. The second volume uses microdata to further analyze retirement behavior on a country-by-country basis. The results in this volume provide an important complement to the first volume in that the results leave little doubt that social security incentives are an important factor in the retirement decision-making process. Around the world, a major demographic tide of declining birthrates is pushing nations further away from the promises that they have made to seniors. Additional salient issues driving the need to reform social insurance include more women in the global workplace, rising divorce rates, changing employment patterns, and rising budget deficits. The combination of changing employment life-cycle behavior and increasing average age of populations in various developed countries, coupled with social security stipulations that have contributed to the decline in the labor force participation of older persons, can substantially reduce the productive capacity of the labor force. While most of the political discussion, at least in the United States, has centered on preserving social security benefits, less attention has been given to the incentive/disincentive employment and early retirement effects of various proposals. The Gruber and Wise book addresses this issue using a logical and salient process. The social security programs in most industrialized countries are financed on a payas-you-go basis. Under this arrangement, most countries have accumulated large unfunded liabilities and face looming financial burdens. The penalty on work induces older employees to leave the labor force early and thus magnifies the financial burden caused by population aging. While the first stage of the Gruber and Wise project produced two major results-(1) social security systems in many countries are laden with strong incentives to leave the labor force at older ages, and (2) a positive relationship between these incentives to retire and the departure of senior workers from the work force-it did not provide a method for estimating the magnitude of plan provision changes on labor force participation. Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World uses substantial databases of individuals compiled by research teams in 12 different countries. The data in each country match information on retirement decisions to the retirement incentives inherent in the social security provisions of each country. Across these 12 countries, noteworthy in their characteristically diverse social security programs and labor market institutions, the results consistently support the contention that program incentives are significantly aligned with retirement decisions. According to the Gruber and Wise, the key advantage of the microestimation approach is that in each country the effects of changes in social security stipulations on retirement decisions can be predicted. Each paper illustrates the country-specific effects of two different reforms. One simulated reform assumes provisions that are common in each of the countries of interest to the study-reducing retirement incentives in some countries and increasing incentives in others. …
This study extends previous research on service quality in the private passenger automobile insurance industry by providing empirical evidence using an improved proxy for the value of service. The endogeneity of the value of service is recognized and treated statistically with the two-stage least squares approach. The empirical model also includes a number of control variables that affect the service quality of an insurer. The measures of quality are customer satisfaction scores that are collected from two consumer surveys: the Consumer Reports Survey and the DALBAR Survey. Of critical interest in the analysis of these two different surveys is their respective treatment of claims problems and non-claims problems. For customers who have filed claims with their insurers, more weight is given to the value of service they perceive. In particular, how fast their insurers handle their claims is much more important to these customers than to the general population of policyholders. In contrast, for general consumers of automobile insurance, their satisfaction is based on a number of factors. Specifically, the insurer's capacity to provide service, output in
This study extends previous research on service quality in the private passenger automobile insurance industry by providing empirical evidence using an improved proxy for the value of service. The endogeneity of the value of service is recognized and treated statistically with the two-stage least squares approach. The empirical model also includes a number of control variables that affect the service quality of an insurer. The measures of quality are customer satisfaction scores that are collected from two consumer surveys: the Consumer Reports Survey and the DALBAR Survey. Of critical interest in the analysis of these two different surveys is their respective treatment of claims problems and non-claims problems. For customers who have filed claims with their insurers, more weight is given to the value of service they perceive. In particular, how fast their insurers handle their claims is much more important to these customers than to the general population of policyholders. In contrast, for general consumers of automobile insurance, their satisfaction is based on a number of factors. Specifically, the insurer's capacity to provide service, output in