Global agricultural trade has become a major driver of land-use change and ecosystem service alteration, but the absence of a composite indicator characterising the intensity of trade-offs among multiple services constrains the monitoring of its multidimensional ecological impacts. This study constructed and validated the Trade-off Intensity Index (TII), quantifying the dispersion of the standardised supply–demand ratios of four services—food production, carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation—on the global 1 km grid over 2000–2020, and used a two-way fixed-effects model to identify the telecoupled effects of soybean and maize trade on national ecosystem service trade-offs. The main findings are as follows. (1) The ecological consequences of trade exhibited pronounced North–South divergence: developed countries decoupled trade growth from ecological imbalance through environmental pressure displacement, whereas developing net exporters bore structural imbalance risks. (2) The effects were crop-specific: soybean exports were the principal driver of ecological imbalance in developing countries, whereas maize trade showed no significant disruptive effect. (3) Historical attribution indicated that soybean export expansion offset approximately 33.32% of the potential ecological improvement in developing net exporters. As a diagnostic tool, the TII captures multidimensional structural degradation that single indicators cannot reflect, and provides a transferable framework for monitoring telecoupled ecological change beyond agricultural trade; these findings support coordinated green supply-chain governance to counter ecologically unequal exchange.

Achieving development within planetary boundaries faces its most acute challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, where rapid population growth intensifies land use pressure. Yet, it remains unclear whether, where, and to what extent population growth can decouple from land loss across the region. Here we address this gap by developing a multiscale research framework to examine population and land loss decoupling from 1990 to 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We combine Tapio elasticity analysis with a Geographically Weighted Elastic Net model to quantify decoupling at pixel, national, and biome scales. Our results show that decoupling is limited in extent and structurally weak across scales. Most pixels exhibited no change, and where change occurred, weak decoupling (WD) dominated with elasticities clustered near zero. Spatial heterogeneity is evident, with localized hotspots of strong decoupling (SD) and coupling coexist. Ecological context conditions decoupling capacity; humid and semi-humid forest systems maintaining more stable decoupling than dryland and Mediterranean systems. Over time, stronger divergence in the 1990s weakens toward a more constrained quasi-equilibrium. Future decoupling trajectories are pathway dependent. SSP1 and SSP2 stabilize WD, whereas SSP3 and SSP4 slightly increase SD prevalence while reducing weak negative decoupling. These findings indicate that land loss dynamics in SSA are shaped not by population growth alone, but by the interaction of ecological conditions, spatial scale, and socioeconomic development pathways. This emphasizes the need for land use policies that are spatially differentiated, ecologically sensitive, and aligned with long-term development pathways.

Context: Global warming threatens rice production and increases methane (CH4) emissions from paddy fields. Although nitrogen (N) fertilizer alleviates yield losses caused by warming, its interaction with carbon allocation and the subsequent impact on CH4 emissions remains unclear. Objectives: This study aimed to elucidate the impact of carbon allocation on CH4 emissions under warming and the regulatory mechanism of N fertilizer. Methods: A two-year field experiment was conducted employing a free-air temperature enhancement system. Four treatments were applied: normal temperature (CK), warming (ET), normal temperature with extra N fertilizer (CKN), and warming with extra N fertilizer (ETN). Yield, biomass, soluble sugar content, gene expression, root exudates, CH4 emissions, and rhizosphere microbial communities were determined. Results: Warming significantly increased CH4 emissions by increasing root exudation and enriching methanogenic substrates in the soil. It also increased soluble sugar content in grains and leaves but downregulated the gene expression of starch synthesis-related enzymes, decreasing carbon utilization efficiency. Conversely, warming with extra N fertilizer promoted the accumulation of photosynthetic products in grains and reduced carbon output from roots by upregulating starch synthesis-related genes and reducing root exudate-related genes expressions. Consequently, N fertilizer significantly mitigated CH4 emissions from rice paddies under warming by 29.5 %-31.6 %, while simultaneously increasing rice yield by 15.7 %-19.1 % and biomass by 12.5 %-19.8 %, compared to the warming-only treatment. Conclusion & implications: This study demonstrates that appropriate N fertilizer under warming conditions can effectively redirect carbon allocation from roots to grains, enhancing rice yield and reducing CH4 emissions from paddy fields. It provides both a practical strategy and a theoretical foundation for sustainable rice cultivation under global warming.

Ecosystem services (ESs) are increasingly recognized as an important criterion for landscape ecological risk (LER). However, previous studies always concentrated only on the ESs or LER in regional management. To empirically test whether ESs-based conservation can mitigate future LER, taking Jiangsu Province, China as a case study, based on the LER assessment method, InVEST model, bivariate Moran's I and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, five scenarios were set by the ESs hotspot areas, and an analysis framework of LER warning was developed. Results showed LER was characterized by a substantial decline in the dominant medium risk areas (from 78.8% to 52.9%) and a concurrent, dramatic expansion of moderate high risk zones (from 9.1% to 37.0%) in 2000-2020. Concurrently, food production, water yield, and soil conservation increased, while carbon sequestration and habitat quality decreased, and the LER and ESs showed a negative spatial correlation. Construction land would expand the most (over 3900 km2) under the natural development (S-natural) scenario in 2030, and the least (2807.62 km2) under the integrated service protection (S-integrated) scenario. Consequently, S-integrated scenario yielded the smallest proportion of warning areas (high and moderate high risk zones), totaling only 29.3% of the study area, compared to 58.2% under S-natural. This study empirically demonstrated that integrating ESs protection into LER warning could effectively mitigate future ecological risks and provide critical support for the high-quality ecological development of rapidly urbanizing regions.

The Global South has experienced rapid urban expansion in recent decades, driven by population growth and rural-to-urban migration. This rapid urbanization presents both significant challenges and opportunities. On one hand, it creates momentum for innovation, particularly in enhancing water use efficiency, accelerating the adoption of renewable energy, and advancing infrastructure development. On the other hand, it places increasing pressure on essential resources such as water, food, and energy. This increasing pressure consequently leads to the need for integrated, resource-efficient systems as the region grapples with energy poverty, water scarcity, and food insecurity. However, empirical studies exploring the synergistic pathways among water use efficiency, renewable energy adoption, and urbanization in achieving food security remain limited. Therefore, this study uses Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a case study to explore synergistic causal pathways between urbanization, renewable energy use, water use efficiency, food supply, and food prices using a panel dataset of 15 demographically dynamic SSA countries from 2000 to 2022. We employed Common Correlated Effects and Temporal Causal Models to estimate long-run panel elasticities and establish mutual causal synergies among urbanization, water use efficiency, and renewable energy in achieving food security. The findings indicate that urbanization drives food prices while also advancing improvements in water use efficiency and renewable energy adoption, which in turn enhance food security. Both water use efficiency and renewable energy use individually and interactively contribute to improved food security outcomes. Moreover, renewable energy use and water use efficiency also promote urbanization, which in turn mediates and reinforces their effects on food security. Furthermore, results of the scenario analysis indicate that improvements in water use efficiency contribute to food stability. These findings underscore the positive role of urbanization in catalyzing renewable energy adoption and water use efficiency, which together enhance food security outcomes.

Unreasonable exploitation of natural resources has caused the degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) and elevated landscape ecological risks (LER). Existing studies have mostly focused on the imbalanced relationships between ESs and human well-being, while insufficient attention has been paid to the correlations between LER and ESs. This study developed an integrated multi-scale analysis framework. Taking Henan Province as a case study and considering globality, spatiotemporal dynamics, and topography, this study selected four scales-1 km grid, county, sub-watershed, and topographic gradient-to analyze the interrelationships between LER and ESs. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting-SHapley Additive exPlanations (XGBoost-SHAP) method was employed to explore their driving factors. The results show that: (1) Both LER and ESs exhibited declining trends from 2000 to 2023. The area of the lowest LER increased at an average annual rate of 4.71%, while the lower LER class dominated, covering 67.78% of the total study area. ESs were generally higher in the southwest and lower in the northeast. (2) Across multiple scales, the relationship between LER and ESs exhibited a significant negative correlation. The relationships at the 1 km grid, county, and sub-watershed scales fluctuated but varied in magnitude. At the topographic gradient scale, a synergistic correlation was observed in low-altitude areas, whereas an imbalance emerged in high-altitude areas. (3) Among the key factors influencing their correlation, natural factors exerted stronger effects than social factors at the 1 km grid, sub-watershed, and topographic gradient scales. However, social factors played a more prominent role at the county scale. This study clarifies the correlation mechanism between LER and ESs and provides scientific support for regional ecological management and policy formulation.

Protected areas (PAs) are important for keeping ecosystem services (ESs), yet their effectiveness is increasingly undermined by the expanding human footprint (HF). The interaction between HF and ESs varies across governance gradients surrounding PAs, reflecting differences in human pressure and management intensity. To capture these divergences, we developed an innovative multi-scenario framework that integrates spatial scale, governance gradients, and human-pressure gradients, applied to 447 national PAs in China. Five spatial scenarios were defined to represent a governance continuum, including strictly protected cores (PAs), co-managed edge zones (PAs + 0-5 km and PAs + 0-10 km), and human-dominated edge zones (0-5 km and 0-10 km). Spatiotemporal interactions between HF and four key ESs (habitat quality, carbon storage, soil retention, and water yield) were analyzed from 2000 to 2020 using spatial correlation, coupling coordination, and spatial matching approaches. Results showed that HF intensified over the two decades, with edge zones providing varying buffering for PAs. Water yield in the 0-5 km edge zone showed the strongest spatial correlation with HF, while other ESs correlated most strongly within PAs or their edge zones. Coupling coordination between HF and ESs was generally higher in edge zones than in PAs, and spatial matching revealed more complex dynamics in edge zones. Natural relic PAs exhibited the lowest coordination and unique spatial correlations, while ecosystem and wildlife PAs showed broadly similar coupling and spatial matching patterns. These findings highlight divergent HF and ES interactions along governance and human-pressure gradients and provide insights for evaluating PA effectiveness and improving management across protected and adjacent landscapes.

The ongoing loss of global biodiversity and ecosystem degradation have become pressing challenges requiring urgent solutions. As vital spatial units for biodiversity conservation, the ecosystem quality (EQ) within protected areas (PAs) directly impacts the maintenance of ecological functions and security. However, existing assessment frameworks often fail to capture their integrated socio-ecological dynamics. This study develops a structure-function-resilience-pressure framework to comprehensively evaluate EQ within China's national-level PAs. We employed the optimal parameter geographic detector (OPGD) model to analyze the drivers and interactions influencing EQ in different types of PA. Results reveal a gradual decline and marked spatial heterogeneity in EQ over time. Forest and grassland PAs maintain relatively high EQ stability, whereas animal and paleontological PAs show lower EQ and stronger temporal fluctuations. Multiscale analysis identifies 2 km as the optimal scale, where precipitation and NDVI act as the main natural determinants, while human disturbances like population density and nighttime light have relatively minor impacts. Although the drivers of EQ vary across different types of PA, natural factors remain the primary drivers overall, while human disturbances exhibit relatively lower explanatory power. Meanwhile, the interaction analysis between natural and anthropogenic drivers substantially enhances explanatory power, highlighting the complexity of socio-ecological interactions. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms shaping conservation effectiveness, and offer a scientific basis for adaptive classification and governance of PAs in pursuit of long-term sustainability goals.

Investigating the scale transmission mechanisms of ecological networks (ENs) resilience is critical for designing adaptive planning and policies to mitigate multi-scale anthropogenic pressures. Accordingly, an analysis framework applicable to multi-level scales was developed, taking the provincial, city cluster and city scales as a nested hierarchy, constructing structural ENs (based on Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis) and functional ENs (based on the ecological importance and sensitivity evaluation), then evaluating their resilience and cross-scale transmission characteristics using a node attack model. Results showed structural and functional ENs were most stable at city scale, with stability weakening as scale increased. Complete removal of city scale patches caused a larger decline in provincial scale resilience (0.19 and 0.15 for structural and functional ENs) than in the city cluster scale (0.08 and 0.09 for structural and functional ENs). The provincial scale resilience only decreased 0.07 for structural ENs when city cluster scale patches were removed completely, lower than complete removal of city scale patches, but it showed extreme vulnerability at the initial stage. ENs resilience exhibited cascading fragility, removing finer scale patches can trigger asymmetric cross-scale transmission, and the re-stabilization could be achieved through sacrificial degradation of secondary nodes and reconfiguration of peripheral corridors. It emphasized the critical need for tiered conservation strategies and coordinated management across scales to enhance ENs stability. The proposed framework provides a transferable tool for multi-scale ENs optimization, supporting biodiversity conservation and sustainable development goals.

Assessing the balance between ecosystem service supply and demand (ESSD) relationship and identifying its driving factors is essential for addressing ecosystem degradation. While previous local-scale studies have highlighted climate change and human activities as critical influences, their roles at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze the global dynamics of supply-demand relationships for four key ecosystem services-food production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and water yield-over the period 2000-2020. We find that ESSD relationships generally exhibit spatially high supply-low demand and quantitatively surplus characteristics. Climate change and human activity influence ESSD relationships in dual-directional pathways. Specifically, they positively affect food production and soil conservation in 80.69 % and 72.50 % of global regions respectively; while negatively influencing carbon sequestration and water yield in 76.74 % and 62.44 % of global regions respectively. Human activity primarily shapes the ESSD relationships for food production and carbon sequestration, with mean contribution rates of 66.54 % and 60.80 % respectively; whereas climate change exerts greater control over soil conservation and water yield, with mean contribution rates of 54.62 % and 55.41 % respectively. Our findings clarify the direction (positive or negative), mode (individual or combined), contribution rates, and geographic distribution of these impacts. This research closes a critical gap in understanding global ESSD relationships and provides essential insights to inform sustainable ecosystem management from local to global scales.

Equitable allocation of protection costs across jurisdictions is crucial to promoting the establishment of transboundary ecological networks (ENs). To explore the influence of cost allocation methods on transboundary ENs, this study took four cities surrounding Taihu lake as study case, and developed five allocation criteria under the targets of maximum protection areas (S1) and best revenue (S2), including allocating equally (Ae), allocating by economic development (Ed), source revenue (Er), source area (Ea) and global coordination (Gc), for example, "S1-Gc" represented global coordination under target S1, Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and least-cost paths (LCPs) methods were employed to identify ecological sources and corridors, respectively. Results showed S1-Gc and S2-Gc achieved the largest protection area (about 1800 km2) with the highest input cost, the patch and corridors numbers, corridor length and revenue in S2-Gc were the highest, and were 139 %, 163 %, 83 % and 105 % higher than those in S1-Gc, it indicated S2-Gc could provide more benefits to biodiversity. S1-Ed achieved the highest network structure index, while the protected area and revenue were 40.75 % and 22.27 % lower than those of S1-Gc, respectively. Results emphasized differences in allocating criteria could lead to varying protection outcomes, and no single strategy universally satisfies all objectives. Therefore, decisionmakers should explicitly define priorities during scenario design based on input cost and its corresponding protection effects, it could promote stakeholders to contribute proportionally to conservation efforts. Results provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners in optimizing cost allocation strategies and designing effective conservation plans in multi-jurisdictional regions.

The global flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) has an impact on the ecosystem services value (ESV) of the host country. However, current research has paid insufficient attention to the mediating role of land use cover change (LUCC) in this process. This study combines all currently available sectoral FDI data to quantify the impact of 6 types of FDI on LUCC and ESV and discusses the potential causes. The study found that 1) FDItotal will have a heterogeneous impact on LUCC, among which it will have a negative impact on forests, wetlands, shrublands, and water bodies, and a positive impact on impervious surfaces and cropland. Affected by sectoral attributes, FDIsector will have further heterogeneous impacts on LUCC. 2) FDI has country-specific heterogeneous impact characteristics. The lower the income/urbanization rate of a country, the greater the impact of FDI on natural land. The host country's governance capacity, technological level, and policy regulations also directly affect the degree of environmental impact brought by FDI. 3) In the scenario simulation, the country with the most significant change in ESV quantity is Canada, and the countries with significant changes in proportion include Mongolia, Morocco, Switzerland, etc. We provide corresponding measures and policy references on how to alleviate the negative environmental impacts brought by FDI in different sectors. The study provides a new perspective for understanding the environmental impact brought by FDI and provides a scientific basis for governments to optimize foreign investment policies and promote sustainable development.

Ecological networks play a crucial role in balancing conservation and development, with notable dependencies on spatial scale, particularly within specific scale ranges. However, there is limited research on the factors influencing the reliability of ecological source information transmission across multi-scales. To address this issue, we integrated a multi-scale analysis framework based on previous studies and examined landscape scales ranging from 102 to 105 km2 across four extents, utilizing a 30 m base resolution and six additional grain sizes. This study was conducted in two regions with distinct geographical features: the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR) and the Loess Plateau Region (LPR). We employed Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and Comprehensive Evaluation (CE) methods to identify ecological sources across different extents and grain sizes, while analyzing the influence of various factors on information transmission. Key findings include: (1) At the landscape level, among all factors, including extents and grain sizes, the influence of geographical features on ecological source information transmission is significant, and it is greater than that of the methods. (2) A comparison between plains and plateaus reveals significant differences in the changes of ecological source information, even exhibiting opposite characteristics. (3) Among the two methods used, the MSPA method demonstrates greater stability when the extent changes, while the CE method exhibits greater stability when the grain size changes. Additionally, the results obtained by applying constraints at different scales are more stable than those without such constraints. This study reveals the mechanisms of ecological source information transmission across scales, underscoring the necessity and urgency of further research within different scale ranges. It also emphasizes that accurately identifying ecological sources is essential for determining critical biodiversity conservation areas and guiding decision-makers in formulating effective conservation strategies and land-use planning.

Multiple cropping systems (MuCS) have been adopted by smallholder farmers (SHFs) to sustainably manage their environment while ensuring year-round subsistence economic benefits. However, in recent years, the ecological benefits of MuCS have been overlooked, while excessive emphasis has been given to monocropping system (MoCS), causing a gradual shift from MuCS to MoCS in agroforestry landscapes. Thus, this study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal shift to MuCS to MoCS due to land use/land cover (LULC) change in agroforestrydominated areas of Sidama Region, Ethiopia, from 2001 to 2021. Six (6) Woredas and seventeen (17) Kebeles were selected purposively encompassing 340 SHFs households, selected using systematic sampling technique. Landsat images (2001-2021) were used to detect LULC change using maximum likelihood algorithm. LULC change drivers identified by SHFs were validated using econometrics models. The results revealed that the overall accuracy of image classification was good with a Kappa accuracy of 0.87. Eucalyptus plantation, Khat (Catha edulis), built-up area, and cultivated land LULC classes significantly increased by 6.67 %, 16.76 %, 10.19 % and 1.87 %, respectively, while natural forest and agroforestry LULC classes decreased by 23.62 % and 9.39 %. Population increment coupled with the gradual increase in market-oriented cash crops has led to the gradual shift of MuCS to MoCS, indicating the gradual weakening of mutual human-environment relationship in the study area. Hence, applying appropriate land use system and strong proscriptions have to be implemented in the area while encouraging SHFs to engage in off-farm activities so as to obtain additional income for their family.

Human activities that impact the environment are recognized as major contributors to climate change and alterations in ecosystem services. However, the ecological and socioeconomic impacts resulting from such human-induced changes are rarely examined at the current study site. Therefore, this study aims to examine human-induced pressure on the normal functioning of vital environmental services like ecosystem service values (ESV) and selected climatic variables like Land Surface Temperature (LST) using the most fragile and dynamic Central Ethiopian highland as a case study site. Geospatial analysis was mainly used to analyze data obtained from Landsat imageries and field investigation. The result shows that during 1990-2000, water bodies, built-up area, forest land, and farmland gained about 164.7%, 130.9%, 27.6%, and 25.5% of their area in 1990, respectively, whereas grassland exhibited the highest loss (77.3%) of its area during the same period. For the entire study landscape, the total estimated ESVs were 691.4, 731.5, and 704.6 million US$ha-1year-1 for 1990, 2000, and 2020, respectively, and these values changed with changes in the areas of each land use/cover class. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has shown positive values for vegetation-related land use/cover classes, whereas it has shown negative values for non-vegetation-related classes, and LST decreased with an increase in NDVI values. In general, there have been significant changes in land use/cover in the central highland of Ethiopia over the past three decades, and this in turn has brought significant impacts on ESVs and LST. Therefore, appropriate policies need to be devised soon to regulate LUCCs for the sustainable use of vital environmental services.

A deeper understanding of the relationship between urban expansion and ecosystem services (RUE ESs) is closely linked to achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing human well-being. Socioeconomic factors play an important role in the relationship, but how they have an impact at different spatial scales remains unclear. The objectives of our study are to clarify the influence of socioeconomic factors on the RUE ESs and identify key influencing factors at different scales. We constructed a multiscale analytical framework, and by combining the correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and Geodetector model, we quantified the differences in the effects of socioeconomic factors on the relationship at three scales of province, urban agglomeration, and county in China. The results indicate that the influence of socioeconomic factors on RUE ESs can be either enhancing or weakening, depending on the ES types. Moreover, the key socioeconomic factor at different scales also varies. The interaction of socioeconomic factors with urban expansion considerably increases their explanatory power for ESs compared to single factors, suggesting that socioeconomic factors mainly acted on ESs changes indirectly through urban expansion. Moreover, clear administrative boundaries can affect the relationship between socioeconomic development, urban expansion, and ESs. The findings highlight that linking socioeconomic, urban expansion, and ES changes at multiple scales can provide multi-level guidance for landscape management and planning-related sustainable development decisions.

Ignoring the impact of ecosystem service (ES) demand and ES supply-demand relationship (ESSDR) on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may affect the equitable and rational allocation of resources and the SDGs agenda. By coupling multiple models, we find that soil conservation ESSDR has lower coupling coordination with SDGs (especially economic SDGs) than other ESs in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region. Food production and soil conservation have negative impacts on total SDGs in 73.44 % and 62.5 % of the countries, respectively, while carbon sequestration and water production have positive impacts in 87.5 % and 57.81 % of the countries, respectively. The heterogeneity may either converge or expand over time. The ESSDR has the most significant impact on environmental SDGs, with an explanatory power exceeding 70 % and being time-dependent. The findings emphasize integrating the impacts of ESSDR into the framework of SDGs implementation in the BRI region and globally to prioritize policy actions.