Objective: Mass screening for HIV and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may be effective measures for reducing the probability of HIV transmission. Our study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of preliminary screening in the general population, PrEP for HIV-negative spouses in serodiscordant couples, or both approaches in Zhejiang Province. Design: From a policy-maker's perspective, a Markov model was constructed to compare four strategies over a 30-year horizon. Methods: In the Markov model, the implementation intensities of the strategies varied from 50 to 100%. Different strategies were evaluated by the reduction of unfavorable clinical outcomes, saved life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and net monetary benefits (NMBs). Results: The PrEP-screening strategy reduced the most unfavorable clinical outcomes and saved the most life-years and QALYs from 2023 to 2052. It always gained the maximum QALYs and NMB, while its ICER was always lower than the willingness-to-pay (WTP). The NMB of the PrEP-screening strategy gradually increased as the implementation intensity increased. Conclusion: With adequate manpower and policies, we suggest implementing the PrEP-screening strategy in Zhejiang Province, suggesting that the broader the population coverage of the strategy, the better. In addition, the PrEP strategy is an alternative.

BACKGROUND:Our study aimed to compare the predictive performance of different hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir, including discrimination, calibration, negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk, and proportion of low-risk. METHODS:We conducted a systematic literature research in PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science before January 13, 2022. The predictive performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration index, negative predictive value, and the proportion in low-risk. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses of discrimination and calibration were conducted. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the results. RESULTS:We identified ten prediction models in 23 studies. The pooled 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUROC varied from 0.72 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.83, and 0.76 to 0.86, respectively. REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and HCC-RESCUE achieved the best discrimination. HCC-RESCUE, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B overestimated HCC development, whereas mREACH-B, AASL-HCC, REAL-B, CAMD, CAGE-B, SAGE-B, and aMAP underestimated it. All models were able to identify people with a low risk of HCC accurately. HCC-RESCUE and aMAP recognized over half of the population as low-risk. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis showed similar results. CONCLUSION:Considering the predictive performance of all four aspects, we suggest that HCC-RESCUE was the best model to utilize in clinical practice, especially in primary care and low-income areas. To confirm our findings, further validation studies with the above four components were required.

Methods:We retrospectively screened individuals with serum Cp ≥ 140 mg/L from 1032 WD patients who were hospitalised for the first time. Logistic regression analyses were performed in a case-control study between the WD cohort and another liver disease cohort to explore the independent risk factors for WD diagnosis and establish a regression model to identify them. The follow-up medical records of the WD cohort were subjected to mixed-effects model analysis in a longitudinal study to discover factors associated with Cp normalisation.Results:Eighty-six WD patients and their 353 medical records and another 98 non-WD liver disease patients were included in the present study. Cp normalisation was significantly associated with the copper burden and liver function indexes, such as urinary copper, γ-glutamyltransferase, and albumin (p ≤ 0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that age and serum creatinine (p ≤ 0.001) were independent risk factors associated with WD. The AUC value of the regression model in the total cohort was 0.926 (p ≤ 0.001). At a cutoff value of ≥0.617 and ≥-1, the positive and negative predictive values were both 90.8% for WD.Conclusion:Increased serum Cp in WD patients is related to excessive copper burden and hepatic injury, and common tests can effectively distinguish WD patients from other liver injury patients.

Background This study aimed to estimate hepatitis B incidence and chronicity risk in rural adults in China under the background of eliminating viral hepatitis. Methods Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening was conducted every 2 years in demonstration areas since 2011. Individuals with baseline HBsAg-negative were included. Incidence was calculated as the number of HBsAg-positive cases divided by the total person-times. HBsAg-positive individuals were followed up to study the persistent infection (> 6 months), chronic infection (> 12 months), and recovery with hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs). The chi-square test and cox proportional regression analysis were performed. Results There were 8,942 incident cases over 2,138,532 person-years, yielding an average incidence of 0.42 per 100 person-years. HBV incidence decreased rapidly in both genders and all age groups and then kept stable. Male gender, low population density, low gross domestic product per capita, and islanders were associated with higher incidence. Of the positive cases, 4,989 (55.8%) patients were followed up. The persistent infection, chronic infection, and recovery with anti-HBs rates were 32.3%, 31.0%, and 31.4%, respectively. Persistent or chronic infection was more common in younger adults and males, while seroconversion had no concern with gender or age. Conclusions HBV incidence in adult rural residents was decreasing and stayed low. The chronicity rate was relatively high and protective antibodies were induced in only one third. The importance of population-based screening and vaccination for susceptible individuals should be addressed.

This review evaluates the ability of the fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4) identifying fibrosis stages, long-time prognosis in chronic liver disease, and short-time outcomes in acute liver injury. FIB-4 was accurate in predicting the absence or presence of advanced fibrosis with cut-offs of 1.0 and 2.65 for viral hepatitis B, 1.45 and 3.25 for viral hepatitis C, 1.30 (<65 years), 2.0 (≥65 years), and 2.67 for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), respectively, but had a low-to-moderate accuracy in alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and autoimmune hepatitis. It performed better in excluding fibrosis, so we built an algorithm for identifying advanced fibrosis by combined methods and giving work-up and follow-up suggestions. High FIB-4 in viral hepatitis, NAFLD, and ALD was associated with significantly high hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and mortality. Additionally, FIB-4 showed the ability to predict high-risk varices with cut-offs of 2.87 and 3.91 in cirrhosis patients and predict long-term survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy. In acute liver injury caused by COVID-19, FIB-4 had a predictive value for mechanical ventilation and 30-day mortality. Finally, FIB-4 may act as a screening tool in the secondary prevention of NAFLD in the high-risk population.

Background Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is highly prevalent among adults in rural China and better management of those populations is of vital importance for viral hepatitis elimination. Adult immunization has been the subject of much controversy in previous studies. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of population-based hepatitis B screening, treatment, and immunization strategy (comprehensive strategy) in rural areas with high prevalence under the national policy of sharp- drop drug prices. Methods We constructed a Markov model comparing 4 strategies in a 30-year horizon from the healthcare payer perspective: (1) the conventional pattern; (2) screening and treating infected (treatment); (3) screening and immunizing susceptible individuals (immunization); and (4) the comprehensive strategy. Screening intensity ranged from 50% to 100%. Outcomes were measured by costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and clinical outcomes. Results The costs for the conventional pattern, treatment strategy, immunization strategy, and comprehensive strategy were US$ 341, 351, 318, and 323, respectively. In addition, effects were 17.45, 17.57, 17.46, and 17.58 QALYs, respectively. The ICER of the comprehensive strategy was US$ 35/QALY gained at 50% screening intensity and 420 US$/QALY gained at 100%. The net monetary benefit increased with increasing screening intensity and declined after 90%, with the highest value of US$40 693. All new infections and 52.5% mortality could be avoided from 2020 to 2049 if all patients were properly treated and all susceptible individuals were immunized. The results were stable within a wide range of parameters. Conclusion It was cost-effective to implement the mass hepatitis B screening, treatment, and immunization strategy in areas of rural China with high prevalence, and the strategy gained the most net monetary benefit at a screening intensity of 90%. Although it was impractical to fulfill 100% coverage, efforts should be made to obtain more people screened.

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a disease characterized by inflammation and disruption of the intestinal epithelial barrier. Necroptosis plays a critical role in disease progression. Indole-3-carbinol (I3C), a natural dietary agonist of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), has shown alleviating effects on UC. However, its mechanisms of action have not been comprehensively elucidated. Therefore, we aimed at investigating the protective role of I3C in DSS-induced colitis mice models. I3C significantly ameliorated body weight loss, colon length shortening and colonic pathological damage in colitis mice, reduced disease activity index (DAI) and histological (HI) scores, as well as alleviated colonic necroptosis and inflammation. In vitro, I3C attenuated necroptosis and inflammation of colonoids and NCM460 cells. AHR, activated by I3C, inhibits activation of receptor-interacting protein kinase 1 (RIPK1) and the subsequent assembly of necrosome in a time-dependent manner, as well as suppressing NF-κB activation and decreasing TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-8 expression. Silencing of AHR aggravated necroptosis and inflammation of NCM460 cells, and did not be ameliorated by I3C. Furthermore, AHR activation induces the expression of inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (IAPs) and the ubiquitination of RIPK1. In conclusion, I3C exerts a protective effect in DSS-induced colitis mice models by alleviating the necroptosis and inflammation of IECs through activating AHR.

Background: The false increase of ceruloplasmin (Cp) in some Wilson’s disease (WD) patients, which overlaps with those in non-WD liver disease patients, decrease the diagnostic accuracy. The aims of our study was to understand the factors affecting WD patients’ Cp normalization, and develop a model using routine predictors to identify WD patients with ambiguous serum Cp. Results: The mixed effects model analysis which executed in longitudinal study revealed that the WD patients’ Cp normalization were significantly associated with the copper burden and liver function indexes, like urinary copper treated with dimercaptopropansulfonate sodium ( P =0.000), aspartate aminotransferase ( P =0.011), γ-glutamyltransferase ( P =0.000), albumin ( P =0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis in case-control study showed age (P=0.000) and serum creatine ( P =0.000) were independent risk factors associated with WD. Based on their regression coefficients, a simplified WD index was derived: 0.001 × age [yr] × Creatine [umol/L] . The AUC value of WD index in total cohort were 0.923 ( P =0.000). At a WD index cutoff value of ≤ 1.9 and ≤ 2.5, the positive and negtive predictive value are 88.2% and 89.9% for WD, respectively. Conclusions: The increase of serum Cp in WD patients is related to their excessive copper burden and hepatic injury, common tests can effectively foretell those WD patients with nearly normal serum Cp from other liver injury patients.

Recent advancements in the field of artificial intelligence have demonstrated success in a variety of clinical tasks secondary to the development and application of big data, supercomputing, sensor networks, brain science, and other technologies. However, no projects can yet be used on a large scale in real clinical practice because of the lack of standardized processes, lack of ethical and legal supervision, and other issues. We analyzed the existing problems in the field of artificial intelligence and herein propose possible solutions. We call for the establishment of a process framework to ensure the safety and orderly development of artificial intelligence in the medical industry. This will facilitate the design and implementation of artificial intelligence products, promote better management via regulatory authorities, and ensure that reliable and safe artificial intelligence products are selected for application.

乙型肝炎病毒( HBV )自20 世纪60 年代在澳大利亚土著居民血清中被发现以来,已成为世界性公共卫生难题.跟据 WHO 最新发布的全球肝炎报告显示,2015年共有2 . 57亿人(约占世界总人口3 . 5％)感染HBV,约 90 万人因此死亡;全球 HBV 表面抗原( HBsAg)阳性者中我国约占30％[1].WHO 估计,若保持现有干预措施,到2030年我国仍将有6000万乙型病毒性肝炎(简称乙肝)感染者和68万乙肝相关死亡病例[2].2016年5 月,第69 届世界卫生大会发布了首个针对病毒性肝炎的全球策略,即2030年消除病毒性肝炎作为重大公共卫生威胁,其核心目标是基于2015 年的基线数据, 2030 年乙肝新发感染率减少90％,乙肝相关病死率减少65％,建议消除病毒性肝炎要从推广乙肝免疫计划、预防母婴传播、提高血制品和注射安全、预防吸毒人群内部的肝炎传播及提高乙肝的诊断率和治疗率5个方面着手[1].本文从我国的国情出发,结合WHO上述五大措施,从传染病防控的3个环节(即控制传染源、切断传播途径和保护乙肝人群)阐述我国在消除HBV感染道路上取得的成就、面对的挑战及努力的方向.

Hepatitis B constitutes a severe public health challenge in China. The Community-based Collaborative Innovation hepatitis B (CCI-HBV) project is a national epidemiological study of hepatitis B and has been conducting a comprehensive intervention in southern Zhejiang since 2009. The comprehensive intervention in CCI-HBV areas includes the dynamic hepatitis B screening in local residents, the normalised treatment for hepatitis B infections and the upcoming full-aged hepatitis B vaccination. After two rounds of screening (each round taking for 4 years), the initial epidemiological baseline of hepatitis B in Qinggang was obtained, a coastal community in east China. By combining key data and system dynamics modelling, the regional hepatitis B epidemic in 20 years was predicted. There were 1041 HBsAg positive cases out of 12 228 people in Round 1 indicating HBV prevalence of 8.5%. Of the 13 146 people tested in Round 2, 1171 people were HBsAg positive, with a prevalence of 8.9%. By comparing the two rounds of screening, the HBV incidence rate of 0.192 per 100 person-years was observed. By consulting electronic medical records, the HBV onset rate of 0.533 per 100 person-years was obtained. We generated a simulated model to replicate the real-world situation for the next two decades. To evaluate the effect of interventions on regional HBV prevalence, three comparative experiments were conducted. In this study, the regional hepatitis B epidemic in 20 years was predicted and compared with HBV prevalence under different interventions. Owing to the existing challenges in research methodology, this study combined HBV field research and simulation to provide a system dynamics model with close-to-real key data to improve prediction accuracy. The simulation also provided a prompt guidance for the field implementation.