BACKGROUND:The Hubei province is one of the most schistosomiasis-epidemic-prone provinces in China. A series of strategies were adopted by the government to curb the rebound schistosomiasis endemic status that has prevailed since the early 2000s. This study aimed to elucidate the trends of schistosomiasis transmission and to appraise the effectiveness of the integrated control strategy in lake and marshland areas. METHODS:Surveillance data of schistosomiasis in the Hubei province between 2005 and 2018 were analyzed, including conventional health control measures, integrated strategies, and measures that focused on the infection source. According to the local annual plan for schistosomiasis control in endemic counties, previous measures were human and snail control and surveillance. Residents aged 6-65 years were screened by an immunological detection method called indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA) after the transmission season each year. All residents who tested positive were then asked to provide a fecal sample for examination by the miracidium hatching technique (MHT) to detect the presence of schistosomes. Moreover, systematic snail surveys were conducted as a part of the combined environmental sampling method. The latter included integrated strategies and measures that focused on the infection source. Bovine stool samples were also collected and concurrently assessed using the MHT by the agriculture department, river-hardening slope protection was constructed by the water conservancy department, and forestation promotion was conducted by the forest department. The effectiveness of the integrated control strategy was assessed using two indicators of resident and livestock infection rates and three indicators of snail epidemics across all endemic areas. RESULTS:From 2005 to 2018, a total of 28. 46 million and 2. 05 million residents were assessed by immunological (IHA) and etiological (MHT) detection techniques, respectively. Snail surveys and molluscicide application were performed in 2. 26 hectares and 0. 37 hectares, respectively. Moreover, 2. 60 million bovines were assessed by etiological detection techniques (MHT). The river-hardening slope protection project was implemented in 503 places, and 46 thousand hectares in endemic areas underwent environmental modification. Forestation was implemented at an area of 0. 15 million hectares. Between 2005 and 2018, the epidemic indicators, including resident and livestock infection rates and the infested areas and infection rate of snails, all presented downward trends. The resident infection rate decreased from 3. 78% in 2005 to 0% in 2016, which persisted through 2018. The livestock infection rate decreased from 5. 63% in 2005 to 0% in 2013, which also persisted through 2018. From 2005 to 2018, the snail-inhabited area was slightly reduced, but the area of infected snails decreased to 0 in 2012; this persisted through 2018. All counties met the goal for schistosomiasis infection control, transmission control, and disruption of schistosomiasis activity in 2008, 2013, and 2018 separately. That means the goal has been achieved in each stage. CONCLUSIONS:The decline of the schistosomiasis epidemic rate demonstrates that the Chinese government was successful in meeting its public health goal in Hubei province. In the next decade, precision interventions must be implemented in endemic counties with a relatively low epidemic status to achieve the goals of the Outline of the Healthy China 2030 Plan. A similar strategy can be applied in other countries to eliminate schistosomiasis globally.

Background: Due to sustained control activities, the prevalence ofSchistosoma japonicum infection in humans, livestock and snails has decreased significantly in P. R. China, and the target has shifted from control to elimination according to the Outline of Healthy China 2030 Plan. Applying highly sensitive methods to explore the presence ofS. japonicum infection in its intermediate host will benefit to assess the endemicity or verify the transmission interruption of schistosomiasis accurately. The aim of this study was to access the presence ofS. japonicum infection by a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method through a 5-year longitudinal study in five lake provinces along the Yangtze River.Methods: Based on previous epidemiological data, about 260 villages with potential transmission risk of schistosomiasis were selected from endemic counties in five lake provinces along the Yangtze River annually from 2015 to 2019. Snail surveys were conducted in selected villages by systematic sampling method and/or environmental sampling method each year. All live snails collected from field were detected by microscopic dissection method, and then about one third of them were detected by LAMP method to assess the presence ofS. japonicum infection with a single blind manner. The infection rate and nucleic acid positive rate of schistosomes in snails, as well as the indicators reflecting the snails’ distribution were calculated and analyzed. Fisher’s exact test was used to examine any change of positive rate of schistosomes in snails over time.Results: The 5-year survey covered 94,241 ha of environment with 33,897 ha of snail habitats detected accumulatively. Totally 145.3 ha new snail habitats and 524.4 ha re-emergent snail habitats were found during 2015-2019. The percentage of frames with snails decreased from 5.93% [45,152/761,492, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 5.88-5.98%] in 2015 to 5.25% (30,947/589,583, 95%CI: 5.19-5.31%) in 2019, while the mean density of living snails fluctuated but presented a downward trend generally from 0.20 snails/frame (155,622/761,492, 95%CI: 0.17-0.37) in 2015 to 0.13 snails/frame (76,144/589,583, 95%CI: 0.11-0.39) in 2019. A total of 555,393 live snails were collected, none of them was positive by dissection method. Totally 17 pooling snail samples were determined as positives by LAMP method among 8716 pooling samples with 174,822 of living snails, distributed in 12 villages of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui provinces. The annual average positive rate was 0.41% (95%CI: 0.13-0.69%) in 2015, 0% in 2016, 0.36% (95%CI: 0.09-0.63%) in 2017, 0.05% (95%CI: 0-0.16%) in 2018, 0.05% (95%CI: 0-0.15%) in 2019, respectively, presenting a downward trend from 2015 to 2019 with statistical significance (χ2 = 11.64,P < 0.05).Conclusions: The results suggest thatS. japonicum infection still persisted in nature along the Yangtze River and traditional techniques might underestimate the prevalence of schistosomiasis in its intermediate hosts. Exploring and integrating molecular techniques into national surveillance programme could improve the sensitivity of surveillance system and provide guidance on taking actions against schistosomiasis.

OBJECTIVES:Progress in national schistosomiasis control in China has successfully reduced disease transmission in many districts. However, a low transmission rate hinders conventional snail surveys in identifying areas at risk. In this study, Schistosoma japonicum-infected sentinel mice surveillance was conducted to identify high-risk areas of schistosomiasis transmission in Hubei province, China.METHODS:The risk of schistosomiasis transmission was assessed using sentinel mice monitoring in Hubei province from 2010 to 2018. Field detections were undertaken in June and September, and the sentinel mice were kept for approximately 35 days in a laboratory. They were then dissected to determine whether schistosome infection was present. Ripley's K-function and kernel density estimation were applied to analyze the spatial distribution and positive point pattern of schistosomiasis transmission.RESULTS:In total, 190 sentinel mice surveillance sites were selected to detect areas of schistosomiasis infection from 2010 to 2018, with 29 (15.26%) sites showing infected mice. Of 4723 dissected mice, 256 adult worms were detected in 112 infected mice. The infection rate was 2.37%, with an average of 2.28 worms detected per infected mouse. Significantly more infected mice were detected in the June samples than in the September samples (χ2=12.11, p<0.01). Ripley's L(d) index analysis showed that, when the distance was ≤34.52km, the sentinel mice infection pattern showed aggregation, with the strongest aggregation occurring at 7.86km. Three hotspots were detected using kernel density estimation: at the junction of Jingzhou District, Gong'an County, and Shashi District in Jingzhou City; in Wuhan City at the border of the Huangpi and Dongxihu Districts, and in the Hannan and Caidian Districts.CONCLUSION:The results showed that sentinel mice surveillance is useful in identifying high-risk areas, and could provide valuable information for schistosomiasis prevention and control, especially concerning areas along the Yangtze River, such as the Fu-Lun, Dongjing-Tongshun, and Juzhang River basins.

Schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum is a public health concern in China, and Hubei is one of the most affected provinces. Although the routine surveillance since the mid 1950s has generated substantial data pertaining to the habitats of the intermediate snail host, Oncomelania hupensis, its spatiotemporal distribution is not known. A review of local chronicles on the annual records of schistosomiasis control program was conducted to retrospectively collect information about O. hupensis habitats. The habitats were mapped by a field survey in 2016. We categorized the habitats into five evolutionary types, namely, Type I, current habitat; Types II-IV, historical habitat; and Type V, suspected habitat according to habitat development. The shape of habitats was determined using geographical information systems. A visual database was established and managed on the ArcGIS platform. A total of 43 472 O. hupensis habitats, covering an area of approximately 430 000 hectares, were identified through the study. Over 60% of these habitats have been eliminated. The highest number of O. hupensis habitats was recorded in 1975; however, most of them were preserved until 1995. Our study, for the first time, sheds light on the spatiotemporal distribution of O. hupensis in the most affected province in China. The data will be valuable for policy making and for formulating strategies to eliminate schistosomiasis in Hubei Province.

Background The prevalence of schistosomiasis in China is at the lowest level in history, and sentinel surveillance sites of schistosomiasis have fully covered all epidemic areas of China. This article has analyzed the surveillance data for the last four years and can help guide the next stage of surveillance work at the national level, including the scope of surveillance, surveillance content, and surveillance methods, etc. Methods Data from the National Schistosomiasis Surveillance System were collected. The infection rate of schistosomiasis among the human population, livestock, snails, and the change of the breeding area of snails in sentinel surveillance sites for four consecutive years were analyzed, and the trends in schistosomiasis prevalence in surveillance sites were determined. Results The prevalence of schistosomiasis in all sentinel surveillance sites of China showed downward trends from 2015 to 2018 with infection rates decreasing in this time period for local human population (0.05% to 0.00%), the floating population (0.020% to 0.003%), and cattle (0.037% to 0.000%). No infected snails were found during the period. From 2015 to 2018, the total area of newly found habitats of snails (Oncomelania hupensis, O. hupensis) were 34,730 m(2), 1,367,694 m(2), 18,944 m(2), and 50,420 m(2), and the total area of re-emergent habitats of snails (O. hupensis) were 822,194 m(2), 1,391,779 m(2), 1,516,292 m(2), and 1,750,558 m(2), respectively. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice The prevalence of schistosomiasis in human and livestock is going down and is sustained at a very low level, but new and re-emerging habitats of O. hupensis are new challenges regardless of the achievement of schistosomiasis control. Therefore, two actions are necessary to effectively further reduce the transmission risk of schistosomiasis: 1) taking effective measures to control the source of infection of schistosomiasis; and 2) reducing the breeding areas of O. hupensis.

Schistosomiasis caused by parasitic flatworms of blood flukes, remains a major public health concern in China. The significant progress in controlling schistosomiasis in China over the past decades has resulted in the remarkable reduction in the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma japonicum infection to an extremely low level. Therefore, the elimination of schistosomiasis has been promoted by the Chinese national government. Hubei Province is the major endemic area, that is, along the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River in the lake and marshland regions of southern China. Eliminating the transmission of schistosomiasis in Hubei Province is challenging. The current issue is to determine the distributions and clusters of schistosomiasis transmission. In this study, we assessed the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and the risk at the county level in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2015 to provide guidance on the elimination of schistosomiasis transmission in lake and marshland regions. Spatial database of human S.japonicum infection from 2011 to 2015 at the county level in the study area was built based on the annual schistosomias is surveillance data. Moran's I, the global spatial autocorrelation statistics, was utilized to describe the spatial autocorrelation of human S. japonicum infection. In addition, purely spatial scan statistics combined with space-time scan statistics were used to determine the epidemic clusters. Infection rates of S. japonicum decreased in each endemic county in Hubei from 2011 to 2015. Human S. japonicum infection rate showed statistical significance by global autocorrelation analysis during the study period (Moran's I > 0, P < 0.01). This result suggested that there were spatial clusters present in the distribution of S. japonicum infection for the five years. Purely spatial analysis of human S. japonicum infection showed one most likely cluster and one secondary cluster from 2011 to 2015, which covered four and one counties, respectively. Spatiotemporal clustering analysis determined one most likely cluster and one secondary cluster both in 2011-2012, which appeared in 4 and 5 counties, respectively. However, the number of clustering foci decreased with time, and no cluster was detected after 2013.The clustering foci were both located at the Jianghan Plain, along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and its connecting branch Hanbei River. Spatial distribution of human S. japonicum infections did not change temporally at the county level in Hubei Province. A declining trend in spatiotemporal clustering was observed between 2011 and 2015. However, effective control strategies and integrated prevention should be continuously performed, especially at the Jianghan Plain area along the Yangtze and Hanbei River Basin. Multivariate statistical analysis was carried out to investigate the risk of missing examinations, missing treatment, and unstandardized treatment events. The results showed that age, education level and Sanitary latrines are risk factors for missing examinations (b > 0, OR >1), and treatment times in past and feeding cattle in village group are protective factors (b < 0, OR <1). We also found that age and education level are risk factors for missing treatment (b > 0, OR >1). Study of the risk for un-standardized treatment revealed that occupation is risk factors (b > 0, OR >1), though, education level is protective factors (b < 0, OR <1). Therefore, precise prevention and control should be mainly targeted at these special populations.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effect of clinical pathway (CP) on the implementation of advanced schistosomiasis patients with ascites. METHODS Totally 1 129 cases of advanced schistosomiasis patients with ascites but without other complications were selected randomly from the Performance Evaluation and Management System for Medical Treatment of Advanced Schistosomiasis Patients in Hubei Province from year 2011 to 2013. Among the patients, 754 cases were treated by CP (CP group), and 375 cases were treated with traditional methods (NCP group), and the hospitalization days, hospitalization expenses, medicine proportions, treatment outcomes and degrees of satisfaction and health knowledge rates of the two groups were compared. Meanwhile, the variation of CP was calculated. RESULTS The average length of hospital days of the CP group and NCP group were (13.85 ± 5.60) d and (17.92 ± 5.80) d, respectively, and the average hospitalization costs of the two groups were (4 699.14 ± 1 520.59) Yuan and (5 692.01 ± 1 616.66) Yuan, respectively, both the differences were statistically significant (both P ＜ 0.05). Also the hospitalization cost structures of the two groups were remarkably different, the composition ratios of the inspection fee and accommodation fee in the CP group were lower than those in the NCP group, but the constituent ratios of the examination fee, diagnosis and treatment fee, drug charges and other expenses were higher than those in the NCP group (all P < 0.05). The awareness rate of health knowledge in the CP group was higher than that in the NCP group (P < 0.05), but there were no statistically significant differences in the treatment outcome and the degree of satisfaction between the two groups (both P > 0.05). The variation rate of CP was 9.02% (68/754). CONCLUSIONS The implementation of CP can decrease the days of hospital stay and medical expenses, improve the awareness rate on health knowledge of the patients. The CP treatment with low variation rate is applicable to advanced schistosomiasis patients with ascites but without complications.

OBJECTIVE:To analyze the Oncomelania hupensis snail situation in schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2014.METHODS:From 2009 to 2014, 207 schistosomiasis endemic villages from 13 cities were selected as the surveillance sites in Hubei Province, where the surveillance of snail situation was performed, and the data about the indexes of snail situation during the 6 years were collected and analyzed statistically.RESULTS:From 2009 to 2014, totally 80 963.47 hm2 of snail areas were investigated, and 45 309.77 hm2 of area with snails as well as 364.93 hm2 of area with infected snails were found out, and 1 646 125 snails were captured. In the 207 surveillance sites, the density of living snails was reduced from 0.493 3 snail/0.1 m2 in 2009 to 0.339 3 snail/0.1 m2 in 2014, with a decline rate of 31.22%; the density of infected snails was reduced from 0.000 7 snail/0.1 m2 in 2009 to 0 in 2014; the infection rate of snails was reduced from 0.14% in 2009 to 0 in 2014. The infection rates of snails in the third-rank villages, endemic areas in inner embankment, ditch environment and weed environment were relatively higher.CONCLUSIONS:The snail situation of Hubei Province has been declined steadily. However, the environment of snail breeding has not been changed completely. In order to consolidate the control achievements further, the measures including mollusciciding and snail control projects should be strengthened.

OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the effect of wild feces detection in Oncomelania hupensis environments on the surveillance of infection source of schistosomiasis, and find the weakness in schistosomiasis control in Hubei Province, so as to put forward the targeted strategies and measures.METHODS:Four environments with O. hupensis snails in endemic areas of Hubei Provinces, where human and livestock often haunted, were selected according to the river systems, namely the Juzhanghe River beach in Jingzhou City, Changjiang River beach in Jiayu County, Hanbei River beach in Tianmen City, and Changshou River beach in Zhongxiang City, then the snail survey and wild feces detection were implemented in the selected environments.RESULTS:There were O. hupensis snails, livestock, wild feces of cattle or sheep as well as positive cattle feces found in all the 4 environments, and the positive rate of schistosome miracidium incubation was 47.62%.CONCLUSIONS:The schistosome miracidium positive rate of wild feces of cattle is high in the environments with snails in endemic areas of Hubei Province, which has high risk for schistosomiasis transmission.

Objective:To understand the water infectivity of schistosomes in key water areas of Hanchuan City, and explore the use of sentinel mice in surveillance and forecast of schistosomiasis. Methods:Surveillance and forecast sites were set up in North Han River, Diaocha Lake, and Miaowu Ditch in 2014. Sentinel mice （male Kunming mice, n=20 in each site） were placed there within the first ten-day period of June and September, respectively. Field detections lasted 4 h each, for a total of 2 days. The loss and death rates of mice were recorded. Humans and livestocks with activities in these sites were also examined for schistosome infection. The sentinel mice recovered were raised in laboratory for 35 days, dissected, and examined for liver granulomas and adult worm counting. The distribution of sites with positive detections and their infection status were analyzed. Emergency measures were taken in the positive sites. Results:A total of 13（5 sites in North Han River, 5 in Diaocha Lake, and 3 in Miaowu Ditch） surveillance and forecast sites were set up. No infected snail was detected in any of these sites in spring 2014. The detection rate of living snails in North Han River （18.7%, 224/1 201) was significantly higher than that in Diaocha Lake（12.8%, 852/6 644） and in Miaowu Ditch （6.4%, 202/3 147）（P<0.01）. Of the 520 mice placed, 6 were lost, and 514 were recovered, among which 4 mice died during laboratory raising. The remaining 510 sentinel mice were then dissected, revealing infection in 4 mice, with a positive rate of 0.8%. Twenty-seven Schistosoma japonicum worms were collected, and the mean worm burden of positive mice was 6.8 worms per mouse. Three sites (Sansi village, Kangjia village and Doubu village) were found to be positive sites of infection in September, with the detailed number of 2, 1 and 0 in North Han River, Diaocha Lake, and Miaowu Ditch respectively, with a positive rate of 1.5% （3/197）, 0.5% （1/195） and 0 （0/118） in sentinel mice （P>0.05）. In addition, among the 22 cattle found in the 13 sites, 2 were infected with schistosomes; and among the 62 fishermen and boatmen, 2 were infected. Emergency measures were taken in the three positive sites, and no high endemicity occurred. Conclusion:The monitoring of sentinel mice infections can improve the sensitivity of the surveillance and forecast system of schistosomiasis. The infected fishermen and cattle remain the major source of schistosomiasis transmission in Hanchuan City.

OBJECTIVE:To grasp the distribution and epidemiology of confirmed cases of schistosomiasis in Hubei Province, so as to provide the evidence for promoting the prevention and control work.METHODS:The confirmed cases of schistosomiasis in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2014 were epidemiologically investigated, and the prevalence characteristics and main influencing factors were analyzed.RESULTS:A total of 10 102 confirmed cases from 2010 to 2014 were surveyed. There were 1 062 local infected patients, accounting for 10.51% and including 354 repeated infections and 17 newly infected. There were 290 foreigninfected patients, accounting for 2.87%, with 206 repeated infection cases and 84 newly infected. There were 8 750 historical patients, including 2 229 patients who leaked the former schistosomiasis investigations, accounting for 22.06%; 570 patients missed treatment, accounting for 5.64%; 3 640 patients were treated with non-standard therapy, accounting for 36.03%; 2 311 patients were treated with poor medication efficacy, accounting for 22.88%. The multivariate non-conditional Logistic regression, targeting at confirmed cases in 2014, showed that, for the leaking investigations, the potential risk factors included the age, educational level, and latrine renovation (b＞0, OR＞1), the protective factors were the times of previous treatment, cattle feeding in villager team, and Oncomelania hupensis snails in surroundings (b＜0, OR＜1); for the treatment-missing, the age, educational level, snails in the surroundings of residence were risk factors (b＜0, OR＜1); for the substandard treatment, the risk factors included the occupation and snails in the surroundings of residence (b＞0, OR＞1), and the educational level and snails in the own field were protective factors (b＜0, OR＜1).CONCLUSIONS:The epidemiological investigation on the confirmed cases of schistosomiasis could grasp the epidemic factors so as to improve the management and carry out the scientific control.

OBJECTIVE:To establish an expression platform of surveillance and forecast for schistosomiasis in key water regions of Hubei Province.METHODS:The platform of surveillance and forecast for schistosomiasis was established based on Google Earth, GIS Office software, network albums and network video stations. The results of the field surveillance and laboratory testing, and figures and videos were inputted into the established platform, and an information management file was set up to express the information of forecasting.RESULTS:The operation and expression platform based on Google Earth in key water regions of Hubei Province was successfully established. It was able to provide the forecasting data timely, to achieve off-site and real-time query and sharing.CONCLUSIONS:The platform based on Google Earth has preferable prospective on field application in Hubei Province.

The province of Hubei is located in the middle of China, near the middle and lower reaches of the River Yangtze, and is an area where schistosomiasis is endemic. It is challenging to control this disease in this environment, and it would be useful to identify clusters of infection and transmission, as well as their distributions during recent years. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Hubei, in order to facilitate the effective control and elimination of this disease.

OBJECTIVE:To analyze the surveillance results of schistosomiasis and understand the transmission situation in Hubei Province in 2014.METHODS:According to the Scheme of Schistosomiasis Surveillance in Hubei Province (the 2009 edition), 207 endemic sites were selected, where the schistosome infections of residents and livestock, and the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails were investigated.RESULTS:In the 207 sites, there were 27 sites without positive results of the blood tests and 129 sites without positive results of the stool tests. The infection rates of residents and cattle were 0.17% and 0, respectively. The density of living snails was 0.339 3 snails/0.1m2, the rate of living snails was 10.12%, and the infection rate of snails was 0. The infection rate of residents in the inner embankment type was 0.22%, higher than the rates in the other types. In different age groups, the infection rate in the 50-59 years age group was higher than the rates in other age groups. The infection rates of residents in farmer and fisherman were higher than those in the other occupation groups. The infection rate of floating people was 0, and no acute schistosomiasis patients were found.CONCLUSIONS:The endemic situation of schistosomiasis has decreased obviously in Hubei Province, and the whole province has achieved the criteria for transmission control of schistosomiasis.

OBJECTIVE:To improve the information level of schistosomiasis control by using the related functions of CorelDRAW software.METHODS:Combining with the requirement of schistosomiasis control, the sketch map was drawn according to the linear element drawing, the geometric drawing, the color rendering and the text adding.RESULTS:The schistosomiasis epidemic sketch map and the Oncomelania hupensis snail distribution sketch map at all levels were produced in CorelDRAW software.CONCLUSIONS:The sketch map drawing in CorelDRAW software is beautiful and standardizing, and it can improve the level of information management.

BackgroundSchistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in China. The major endemic areas are located in the lake and marshland regions of southern China, particularly in areas along the middle and low reach of the Yangtze River. Spatial analytical techniques are often used in epidemiology to identify spatial clusters in disease regions. This study assesses the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and explores high-risk regions in Hubei Province, China to provide guidance on schistosomiasis control in marshland regions.MethodsIn this study, spatial autocorrelation methodologies, including global Moran's I and local Getis-Ord statistics, were utilized to describe and map spatial clusters and areas where human Schistosoma japonicum infection is prevalent at the county level in Hubei province. In addition, linear logistic regression model was used to determine the characteristics of spatial autocorrelation with time.ResultsThe infection rates of S. japonicum decreased from 2009 to 2013. The global autocorrelation analysis results on the infection rate of S. japonicum for five years showed statistical significance (Moran's I > 0, P < 0.01), which suggested that spatial clusters were present in the distribution of S. japonicum infection from 2009 to 2013. Local autocorrelation analysis results showed that the number of highly aggregated areas ranged from eight to eleven within the five-year analysis period. The highly aggregated areas were mainly distributed in eight counties.ConclusionsThe spatial distribution of human S. japonicum infections did not exhibit a temporal change at the county level in Hubei Province. The risk factors that influence human S. japonicum transmission may not have changed after achieving the national criterion of infection control. The findings indicated that spatial-temporal surveillance of S. japonicumtransmission plays a significant role on schistosomiasis control. Timely and integrated prevention should be continued, especially in the Yangtze River Basin of Jianghan Plain area.

OBJECTIVE:To study the endemic trend of schistosomiasis japonica in Hubei Province, so as to provide the theoretical basis for surveillance and forecasting of schistosomiasis.METHODS:The time-series auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2013, and to predict the short-term trend of infection rate.RESULTS:The actual values of infection rate of residents were all in the 95% confidence internals of value predicted by the ARIMA model. The prediction showed that the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province would continue to decrease slowly.CONCLUSION:The time-series ARIMA model has good prediction accuracy, and could be used for the short-term forecasting of schistosomiasis.