This paper describes the research protocol for the Educational and Developmental Gains in Early Childhood (EDGE) Study, which will examine the implementation of two years of funded kindergarten prior to the first year of school in Victoria, Australia. EDGE will examine whether children's language, cognitive, social-emotional, and behavioural outcomes are improved after two years of kindergarten compared to one year. The experiences of (and impacts on) teachers, service leaders, and families will also be examined. The study includes a cross-sectional cohort of 95 early childhood education and care (ECEC) services, and an embedded longitudinal observational cohort of children attending these services. Case studies of 15-20 ECEC services will also be collected, in addition to interviews with policy stakeholders.

Although it is well established that women’s labour force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, surprisingly little is known about women’s labour market transitions, especially in developing countries. This paper uses the Indonesian Family Life Survey to track the employment histories of over 9,000 women across a period of more than 20 years, observing them as they get married and have children. The data show that large numbers of Indonesian women drop out of the labour market as a result of marriage and childbearing. The difficulty of maintaining formal sector employment emerges as a key problem. Having worked in the formal sector prior to the birth of a first child reduces the probability of working in the year following the birth by 20 percentage points and reduces the probability of returning to the labour market thereafter by 3.6 percentage points. Further, to the extent that women do return to work, formal sector employment is associated with greater delays in returning - women are more likely to return to work in the formal sector only once their child starts primary school, while in the informal sector they return earlier. We find little evidence of women switching from the formal to the informal sector. Formal sector labour market policies such as flexible work hours; compressed work weeks; part-time work (with the same career opportunities and benefits as full-time work); the ability to work from home; and work-based childcare are likely to boost women’s labour force participation, with consequent boosts to economic productivity and prosperity.

Interventions that combine unconditional permanent housing with support services, known as Housing First approaches, generally improve housing outcomes for people who have experienced chronic homelessness. However, little is known about their long-run outcomes or the consequences of ending such services. We investigate both aspects by examining the long-run effects of an intensive support program on the housing, employment, and health outcomes of chronically homeless people in Australia. Evaluating the three-year program over six-years using a randomised controlled trial, we document substantially higher rates of housing and better employment outcomes during the program period for the treated group, but no substantial changes in health. Three years after the program ends, we observe no significant differences between the treatment and control group with respect to any outcomes, including housing. Our results imply that stable housing is a necessary but not sufficient condition to overcome multiple sources of economic and social disadvantage.

Background: In the Australian state of New South Wales nearly 60,000 approved applicants are waiting for social housing. Future Directions for Social Housing is a response to this challenge. This collection of housing programs aims to provide more social housing, support and incentives for leaving social housing and a better social housing experience. This document presents the protocol of the evaluation of these programs and the overarching Future Directions Strategy. Methods/Design: The evaluation will use a Type 1 effectiveness-implementation hybrid design, with an integrated, dual focus on assessing the effectiveness of Future Directions and better understanding the context for reform implementation. Program effectiveness will be examined using quasi-experimental techniques applied to linked administrative data. The implementation context will be examined via program level data, qualitative interviews and focus groups with stakeholders and tenants. Some quantitative survey and administrative data will also be used. Findings from the implementation evaluation will be used to inform and interpret the effectiveness evaluation. Economic evaluations will also be conducted. Discussion: This methodology will produce a high-quality evaluation of a large, complex government program which aims to facilitate rapid translational gains, real-time adoption of effective implementation strategies and generate actionable insights for policymakers.

We examine the impact of housing and labour market conditions on individual risks of homelessness. Our innovation is a focus on homelessness entries, although findings from jointly estimated homelessness entry and exit probit equations are reported. Risky behaviours and life experiences such as regular use of drugs, the experience of violence and biographies of acute disadvantage lead to a higher risk of becoming homeless. Public housing is a strong protective factor. We find clear evidence that for certain subgroups it is being the 'wrong person in the wrong place' that matters most when considering risks of entering homelessness. Indigenous Australians, for example, are no more likely to become homeless than other vulnerable groups holding housing and labour market conditions constant. However, tighter housing markets and weaker labour markets expose Indigenous Australians to significantly higher risks of entering homelessness.

Do people experiencing homelessness have private information that helps predict when they will leave homelessness? Our answer is yes: homeless people know important things about their future. We use data from Journeys Home, a path-breaking longitudinal study of homeless people and people at risk of homelessness in Australia. We suggest ways that private information can be used to improve service delivery. In particular, we show why decentralized intake systems may be more effective than command-and-control systems, despite the popularity of the latter.

Do people at risk of homelessness have private information—information that social service agencies cannot credibly obtain—that helps predict whether they will become homeless? This article asserts that the answer to this question is yes: homeless people and people at risk of homelessness know important things about their future. Data from Journeys Home (JH), a pathbreaking longitudinal study of people experiencing homelessness and people at risk of homelessness in Australia, are used in this article. In many cases, the private information that participants have predicts entries better than the public information that agencies can obtain. Ways in which this private information can be used to improve service delivery are suggested.

In 2010 the Australian Government commissioned The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne to undertake “Journeys Home (JH): A Longitudinal Study of the Factors Affecting Housing Stability”. The broad aim of JH was to improve the understanding of, and policy responses to, the diverse social, economic and personal factors related to homelessness and the risk of becoming homeless. Importantly, JH is one of the first longitudinal studies of homeless people that both draws it sample from a wide population and includes people who are vulnerable to homelessness. This paper provides a brief summary of the JH survey, discussing its aims, survey design, data collection process, and response outcomes over its six waves of data collection. It also highlights some of the initial research that has been published utilising the data since its release.

The past decade has seen increased use in Australia in the use of administrative data in homelessness research. We review this research, using a framework from the US literature, and highlight innovative and policy-relevant Australian initiatives in five areas. While the use of administrative data in Australian research on homelessness has lagged behind what has been done in the United States, the emerging body of Australian research in this area should continue to take an increased role in understanding and informing responses to homelessness. We conclude by assessing the opportunities and challenges facing continued research using this type of data.

Australian Economic ReviewVolume 50, Issue 2 p. 195-196 Policy Forum: Australian Homelessness—Research and Policy Insights Introduction to the Policy Forum on Australian Homelessness David C. Ribar, David C. RibarSearch for more papers by this authorYi-Ping Tseng, Yi-Ping TsengRibar: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research and ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia, and Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn 53113 Germany; Tseng: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia. Corresponding author: Ribar, email < david.ribar@unimelb.edu.au>. The findings and views reported in this article are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Melbourne Institute.Search for more papers by this author David C. Ribar, David C. RibarSearch for more papers by this authorYi-Ping Tseng, Yi-Ping TsengRibar: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research and ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia, and Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn 53113 Germany; Tseng: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia. Corresponding author: Ribar, email < david.ribar@unimelb.edu.au>. The findings and views reported in this article are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Melbourne Institute.Search for more papers by this author First published: 31 May 2017 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12223 Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume50, Issue2June 2017Pages 195-196 RelatedInformation

This paper uses survival analysis to model exits over time from two alternative notions of homelessness. We are unique in being able to account for time-invariant, unobserved heterogeneity. We find that duration dependence has an inverted U-shape with exit rates initially increasing (indicating positive duration dependence) and then falling. Like previous researchers, we find results consistent with negative duration dependence in models which ignore unobserved heterogeneity. Exit rates out of homelessness fall with age and with the education level of mothers. Women are more likely than men to exit homelessness when it is broadly conceived, but appear to be less likely to exit when it is narrowly defined. Finally, higher paternal education and exemptions from welfare-related activity requirements due to either mental or physical health conditions are all associated with higher exit rates.

KEY POINTS Of key importance for this project is its research methodology as it is the first to combine housing and labour market data with Journey’s Home survey data. It developed three models to examine the probability of entry into and exits from homelessness. Men are prone to higher rates of homelessness. They are more likely to become homeless and less likely to exit homelessness. Individuals who are married or in a de facto relationship are less likely to enter homelessness but if they do, there is a significantly lower likelihood of escape. Long-term ill-health issues do not affect people’s likelihood of entering homelessness. People diagnosed with mental health issues have lower risk of entering homelessness and higher chance of exiting homelessness. Drinking and drug taking at risky levels, and recent incarceration raises the chances of entering homelessness, as does a previous spell of homelessness. These personal characteristics correlate with a higher risk of becoming and remaining homeless irrespective of the condition of local housing and labour markets.

Executive Summary: Journey to Social Inclusion was a three year pilot that provided intensive support designed to break the cycle of long-term homelessness. This report presents the social and economic outcomes of the J2SI pilot. It covers the three years the trial ran, and the 12 month period following the completion of the trial. The evaluation used a randomised controlled trial to track and compare the outcomes of the J2SI participants (Group J) with those of an equivalent group of long-term homeless people (Group E) who were supported by existing services. After 48 months 67% of the original participants remained involved in the trial. The evidence suggests that J2SI had a positive impact on the lives of most participants, over time and relative to the control group. The physical health of Group J improved, with the proportion reporting no bodily pain increasing from 27% to 45% over the four year period. In other measures of bodily pain Group J also report larger gains over time and relative to Group E. Although there is some variation in the use of health services with both groups showing greater improvements in some areas relative to the other group, the most important pattern to note is that Group J’s average use of emergency hospital services and their average number of days hospitalised in general hospitals and psychiatric units declined by about 80% over the 48 month period. Group E’s need for emergency hospital treatment increased by 21%. While the average number of days Group E spent in hospital declined by about one third, the reduction is considerably less than observed in Group J. These results represent a substantial health care impact and suggest that an intervention comprising of stable housing and intensive case management can reduce the public burden associated with the over-utilisation of health services. The report also shows improvements over time and relative to Group E in the use of welfare and homelessness services, and the amount of time incarcerated. In the absence of the J2SI Program, Group J’s use of welfare service has started to rise. Finally, there was only a modest improvement in the extent to which the participants’ felt connected to and supported by the community over the four years. However, the trend was always in a positive direction, and in the final survey J2SI participants recorded their highest scores on both social support and social acceptance indexes. There are signs, however that the impact of J2SI is declining in some areas. After three years 85% of J2SI participants were housed compared to 41% of those who were receiving existing services. In the 12 months following its closure the proportion of J2SI participants who were housed dropped by 10 percentage points to 75%. Although this was substantially higher than at baseline, compares favourably with international studies, and is still 17 percentage points higher than that reported by the control group (58%), it was the first ‘substantial’ decline we have observed over the four year period. Similarly, while the emotional health of the J2SI participants improved and they report lower levels of stress, anxiety and depression after four years compared to where they were at the start of the trial, the results are not much different to those reported by Group E. Similarly, although there had been substantial gains in the labour force participation rate during the trial, these gains were not sustained when J2SI closed. Throughout the trial we found little change in the substance use behaviour of the participants, although this is a common finding in studies evaluating service impacts among the long-term homeless. Finally, we found the short-term economic benefit to be modest but trending upwards, with a return of 0.25 for every dollar invested. Taking into account lives saved over a 10 year time frame the economic benefit was more substantial, with a $1.32 return for every dollar invested. J2SI shows that breaking the cycle of long-term homelessness is possible and that intensive support coupled with stable housing can reduce demand on expensive health, justice and welfare services. However, some of the successes and improvements were not sustained and some individuals subsequently became homeless once J2SI support ended. About one quarter of the participants would have benefitted from ongoing support. The agencies they had been referred to after J2SI ended failed to provide the level and breadth of support necessary for ongoing stability. This presents two challenges for policy makers. First, many services, particularly clinical health services, are configured in such a way as to exclude the long-term homeless for the very issues they seek assistance with. Second, policy makers need to explicitly acknowledge that a small minority of homeless people require ongoing and indefinite support. Among those who had succeeded in maintaining their housing some had made a successful journey out of homelessness and were continuing to move on with their lives. Equally, it was clear that having a home did not lead to social acceptance and social inclusion for everyone. With limited employment options, few social networks outside of the homeless population, and few alternative social activities, opportunities for social inclusion remain limited for many individuals whose experience of social exclusion is both wide and deep. In this context programs designed to permanently end long-term homelessness such as J2SI need to temper their expectations and accept that years immersed in homelessness not only have physical and emotional effects, but long-term social and economic effects as well. Further, despite sharing many similar characteristics and experiences the long-term homeless are a heterogeneous group. Recognising similarities and differences among the long-term homeless is important in terms of designing appropriate interventions – whereas some participants would benefit from ongoing support, for others the support requirements were less. Much has been learnt from the J2SI pilot – what works, what doesn’t, for whom and why. The key now is to translate these findings into a more balanced policy framework that is sensitive to the challenges and complexities of permanently ending long-term homelessness.

This Positioning Paper is the first part of a project that seeks to examine interactions between macro structures such as changes to housing and labour markets, and the micro processes that render individuals vulnerable to homelessness. The empirical findings will be presented in a Final Report, due in early 2015. There are five key messages in the paper.

The objective of this paper is to better understand the factors that affect the chances of re-engaging early school leavers in education, with a particular focus on the importance of time out from school (duration dependence) and school-related factors. Using data from three cohorts of the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth and duration models that control for unobserved heterogeneity, our results suggest that programmes that encourage an early return to study and those that develop post-school career plans may be more effective than programmes that concentrate on improving numeracy and literacy scores.

This is the first of two reports funded by AHURI that set out to examine the relationship between structural factors, individual characteristics, and homelessness using Journeys Home (JH), a unique Australian longitudinal dataset on persons vulnerable to homelessness. In our study we define structural factors to be area-level characteristics that could directly affect individuals’ risks of homelessness, over and above those that are reflected in the individuals' own circumstances. Two structural factors are of particular interest to us—first, the state of housing and second, labour markets of areas. Individual characteristics include demographic, biographic, and behavioural characteristics. These individual characteristics range from those over which the person has no control, such as age, through to those that are the product of unconstrained behaviour where individuals act independently, and make their own decisions (agency). Most individual characteristics lie between these two extremes. Our approach seeks to understand the interaction of area-level characteristics (i.e. structural conditions) and the characteristics of individuals. However, it is important to note that our analysis will be unable to say anything about the society-wide forces that determine how much choice or control (agency) individuals’ exercise with respect to characteristics thought to be risk factors.

As part of the Australian government’s commitment to halving the rate of homelessness by 2020, a research agenda was developed to expand the evidence base for understanding homelessness. A major component of this agenda was the commissioning of a new longitudinal study intended to track the experiences of a sample of persons currently facing housing difficulties, including persons with a recent history of homelessness, into the future (albeit, only over a relatively short period – two years). Work on the design of that study, now known as Journeys Home, commenced in late 2010, with the first wave of fieldwork conducted over the period, September to November 2011. This paper summarises the design of the study and reports on fieldwork outcomes from the first wave of data collection. It describes: the target population and approach to sampling from that population; survey content; and fieldwork parameters (e.g., survey mode, frequency, contact protocols, use of incentives). It also presents information on wave 1 response, including the characteristics of respondents and how they differ from non-respondents.

This report examines the relationship between structural factors, individual characteristics and homelessness. Our interest in the interaction of structural conditions and individual characteristics gives rise to two secondary research questions. First, do structural factors such as housing and labour market conditions, as well as area-level poverty, matter for those individuals vulnerable to homelessness? Second, do structural factors affect those with particular individual risk factors more than others? The questions were answered by analysing an individual's probability of being homeless, the probability of the housed entering homelessness, and the probability that homeless individuals will exit homelessness.

This report presents the social and economic outcomes of the J2SI pilot. It covers the three years the trial ran, and the 12 month period following the completion of the trial. The evaluation used a randomised controlled trial to track and compare the outcomes of the J2SI participants (Group J) with those of an equivalent group of long-term homeless people (Group E) who were supported by existing services. After 48 months 67% of the original participants remained involved in the trial.