The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half-century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate-driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age-structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70-y-old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan Genotype-II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity exhibited by endemic DENV-1. Finally, we simulate an age-structured, mechanistic model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older-age infections witnessed in our data.

Objective Data from 19 years of national dengue surveillance in Cambodia (2002-2020) were analyzed to describe trends in dengue case characteristics and incidence. Methods Generalized additive models were fitted to dengue case incidence and characteristics (mean age, case phenotype, fatality) over time. Dengue incidence in a pediatric cohort study (2018-2020) was compared to national data during the same period to evaluate disease under-estimation by national surveillance. Findings During 2002-2020, there were 353,270 cases of dengue (average age-adjusted incidence 1.75 cases/ 1,000 persons/ year) recorded in Cambodia, with an estimated 2.1-fold increase in case incidence between 2002 and 2020 (slope = 0.0058, SE = 0.0021, p = 0.006). Mean age of infected individuals increased from 5.8 years in 2002 to 9.1 years in 2020 (slope = 0.18, SE = 0.088, p <0.001); case fatality rates decreased from 1.77% in 2002 to 0.10% in 2020 (slope = -0.16, SE = 0.0050, p <0.001). When compared to cohort data, national data under-estimated clinically apparent dengue case incidence by 5.0-fold (95% CI 0.2-26.5), and overall dengue case incidence (both apparent and inapparent cases) by 33.6-fold (range: 18.7-53.6). Conclusion Dengue incidence in Cambodia is increasing and disease is shifting to older pediatric populations. National surveillance continues to under-estimate case numbers. Future interventions should account for disease under-estimation and shifting demographics for scaling and to target appropriate age groups.

Global dengue incidence has increased dramatically over the past few decades from approximately 500 000 reported cases in 2000 to over 5 million in 2019. This trend has been attributed to population growth in endemic areas, rapid unplanned urbanization, increasing global connectivity, and climate change expanding the geographic range of the Aedes spp. mosquito, among other factors. Reporting dengue surveillance data is key to understanding the scale of the problem, identifying important changes in the landscape of disease, and developing policies for clinical management, vector control and vaccine rollout. However, surveillance practices are not standardized, and data may be difficult to interpret particularly in low- and middle-income countries with fragmented health-care systems. The latest national dengue surveillance data for Cambodia was published in 2010. Since its publication, the country experienced marked changes in health policies, population demographics, climate and urbanization. How these changes affected dengue control remains unknown. In this article, we summarize two decades of policy changes, published literature, country statistics, and dengue case data collected by the Cambodia National Dengue Control Programme to: (i) identify important changes in the disease landscape; and (ii) derive lessons to inform future surveillance and disease control strategies. We report that while dengue case morbidity and mortality rates in Cambodia fell between 2002 and 2020, dengue incidence doubled and age at infection increased. Future national surveillance, disease prevention and treatment, and vector control policies will have to account for these changes to optimize disease control.

Introduction:Bats are important providers of ecosystem services such as pollination, seed dispersal, and insect control but also act as natural reservoirs for virulent zoonotic viruses. Bats host multiple viruses that cause life-threatening pathology in other animals and humans but, themselves, experience limited pathological disease from infection. Despite bats' importance as reservoirs for several zoonotic viruses, we know little about the broader viral diversity that they host. Bat virus surveillance efforts are challenged by difficulties of field capture and the limited scope of targeted PCR- or ELISA-based molecular and serological detection. Additionally, virus shedding is often transient, thus also limiting insights gained from nucleic acid testing of field specimens. Phage ImmunoPrecipitation Sequencing (PhIP-Seq), a broad serological tool used previously to comprehensively profile viral exposure history in humans, offers an exciting prospect for viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, including bats. Methods:Here, for the first time, we apply PhIP-Seq technology to bat serum, using a viral peptide library originally designed to simultaneously assay exposures to the entire human virome. Results:Using VirScan, we identified past exposures to 57 viral genera-including betacoronaviruses, henipaviruses, lyssaviruses, and filoviruses-in semi-captive Pteropus alecto and to nine viral genera in captive Eonycteris spelaea. Consistent with results from humans, we find that both total peptide hits (the number of enriched viral peptides in our library) and the corresponding number of inferred past virus exposures in bat hosts were correlated with poor bat body condition scores and increased with age. High and low body condition scores were associated with either seropositive or seronegative status for different viruses, though in general, virus-specific age-seroprevalence curves defied assumptions of lifelong immunizing infection, suggesting that many bat viruses may circulate via complex transmission dynamics. Discussion:Overall, our work emphasizes the utility of applying biomedical tools, like PhIP-Seq, first developed for humans to viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, while highlighting opportunities for taxon-specific improvements.