The Bucharest University of Economic Studies (Romanian: Academia de Studii Economice din București, abbreviated ASE) is a public university in Bucharest, Romania. Founded in 1913 as the Academy of Higher-level Commercial and Industrial Studies (Academia de Înalte Studii Comerciale și Industriale (AISCI)), it has become one of the largest economic higher education institutes in both Romania and South-Eastern Europe. The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies is classified as an advanced research and education university by the Ministry of Education. It is one of the five members of the Universitaria Consortium (the group of elite Romanian universities).
This paper investigates the role of human capital in fostering financial sector development in developing economies, an area that has received limited attention despite the extensive literature on the relationship between human capital and economic growth. The study empirically analyzes data from 28 developing countries over the period 1990–2019, employing FGLS, DOLS, FMOLS, and Driscoll-Kraay estimation techniques for robust results. Causality is assessed using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin bootstrap approach. The findings demonstrate that human capital significantly contributes to long-term financial sector development. Additionally, economic growth, trade openness, and remittances are positively associated with financial sector expansion. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional causality between human capital and financial sector development, as well as between other explanatory variables and financial development. The results suggest that policymakers should prioritize human capital development, alongside strategies to stimulate economic growth, trade openness, and remittance flows, to support financial sector advancement.
Digital assets (DAs) such as cryptocurrencies, tokenized securities, stablecoins, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and central bank digital currencies, are transforming financial markets with new business models, investment opportunities, and transaction efficiencies. Underpinned by blockchain, distributed ledger technology, and smart contracts, digital innovations are reshaping the financial ecosystem. However, their rapid growth introduces substantial risks, including fraud, market manipulation, cybersecurity threats, and regulatory uncertainty. This position paper offers an interdisciplinary and empirically grounded analysis of the DA landscape. We define and classify major asset types, trace their evolution from speculative instruments to functional tools, and assess current adoption trends. Additional technological developments (e.g., decentralized finance and NFT expansion) are examined for their role in accelerating this transformation. We also analyze the global regulatory landscape, highlighting jurisdictional differences, classification challenges, and emerging governance frameworks. To address key risks, we derive mitigation strategies via quantitative analysis and case-based evidence. The risks include balancing innovation with investor protection through adaptive regulatory design, promoting cross-border regulatory harmonization to prevent arbitrage and fragmentation, and supporting experimentation through regulatory sandboxes and innovation hubs. By adopting a forward-looking, evidence-based, and collaborative regulatory approaches, stakeholders can harness the benefits of DAs while managing systemic risks and maintaining market integrity.
This research presents a regime-aware hybrid forecasting framework for the Bitcoin market’s nonlinear, nonstationary and regime-switching behavior. The architecture integrates econometric models, neural forecasting and meta-learning, unified under a regime-detection mechanism using probabilistic inference. Central to the approach is a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) trained on log returns, which infers latent market regimes, bull, bear and sideways, based on statistical characteristics rather than arbitrary thresholds. Each detected regime triggers a specialized forecasting model: ARIMAX for volatile bear markets, SARIMAX for cyclical sideways periods and NeuralProphet for nonlinear bullish dynamics. These models leverage historical returns (Jan. 2012-Jun. 2025) and external signals, including technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands) and volatility metrics. A meta-learning layer, implemented via XGBoost, dynamically selects the optimal model at each time step based on the regime. This enables real-time adaptation to evolving market conditions. Predictions are made on log returns and translated into price forecasts through exponentiation. The framework’s performance is evaluated using R2, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The regime-aware model outperforms the no-regime model significantly across all metrics, especially in error reduction (MAE cut by 56
This study investigates a stochastic production planning problem with a running cost composed of quadratic production costs and inventory-dependent costs. The objective is to minimize the expected cost until production stops when inventory reaches a specified level, subject to a boundary condition. Using probability space and Brownian motion, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is derived, and optimal feedback control is obtained. The solution demonstrates desirable monotonicity and convexity properties under specific assumptions. An illustrative example further confirms these results with explicit function properties and a practical application.
We examine whether speculative bubbles in shadow banking institutions contribute to the buildup and materialization of systemic risk. Using the Phillips–Shi–Yu (BSADF) bubble detection methodology and market-based systemic risk measures (ΔCoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall), we analyze daily data for 17 publicly listed U.S. shadow banking firms over the period 2010–2026. We document a pronounced pro-cyclical measurement puzzle. During bubble periods, firms exhibit higher market exposure and greater tail risk—Beta increases by 4.9% and Expected Shortfall by 7.9%—yet widely used systemic risk measures decline, with ΔCoVaR falling by 6.6%. This pattern suggests that conventional systemic risk metrics may underestimate vulnerabilities during speculative expansions. However, when bubbles burst, systemic risk materializes rapidly. During burst windows, ΔCoVaR increases by 7.9% and MES by 8.6%, indicating that vulnerabilities accumulated during bubble phases translate into significant systemic spillovers once speculative dynamics collapse. Our findings highlight a pro-cyclical bias in commonly used systemic risk indicators: these measures capture realized financial stress but fail to detect the buildup of fragility during expansion phases. Monitoring bubble dynamics in shadow banking may therefore provide valuable complementary signals for macroprudential surveillance.
