Clear policy, real results: Alberta’s methane reduction leadership Alberta’s legacy of methane leadership delivers early results and strengthens the global competitiveness of its resource industries. For more than a century, Alberta’s energy, mining, and agricultural sectors have powered the province’s economy. They also account for a significant share of methane emissions, making management a strategic priority for climate leadership.
Policy analysis requires more than predicting whether a proposal will pass: it requires identifying who will be affected, how those actors respond, and what follows. LLM-based policy simulations model these processes at scale, but their validity is hard to establish when plausible behaviour is never compared with observed outcomes. We introduce GPS-Bench, an evidence-grounded benchmark for governance policy simulation that links policies to relevant actors, actor actions and downstream impacts using legislative records, lobbying disclosures, regulatory documents, corporate filings, economic data and other public evidence. Actors are reconstructed from the dated record rather than prompted as archetypes, so a persona is an evidence object with provenance; a human-annotated pool forms the Gold evaluation set, while cases labelled by a separate LLM from retrieved evidence are treated as Silver supervision and never as test labels. Because every inference mode reads the same grounded state and emits the same schema, GPS-Bench turns "does multi-agent simulation help?" into a controlled comparison: we contrast joint reasoning, independent and communicating actor agents, graph-based methods and weight-level fine-tuning over one policy state. Fine-tuning on the grounded record gives the strongest actor-level impact prediction, and decomposition does not beat it; what decomposition adds is mechanism. Agents hold private, non-identical evidence, each seeing its own exposure clause, and address named partners with concrete joint proposals, what they offer, what they need in return, and why acting together beats acting alone, so the coalitions that form can be checked against the commitments the record holds. GPS-Bench therefore gives a common empirical setting for studying when evidence, actor modelling and multi-agent interaction improve the prediction and interpretation of policy outcomes.
Difference-in-means steering requires activations recorded while a model shows the desired behavior, which a sandbagging model withholds by deliberately underperforming. We introduce Activation Flow (ActFlow), which manufactures these activations from k correct labels without fine-tuning. ActFlow sets target logits that rank each labeled item's correct answer first, and moves the logits toward them by adding one vector x to all k residual streams at one layer. ActFlow is a family of ordinary differential equations for x, one for each rule that maps the required logit change to the velocity of x. The smallest-norm rule lands exactly on the targets, while the others keep only the top singular directions of the Jacobian. We test ActFlow on three instruction-tuned models, each locked by a sandbagging prompt and by a password-locked LoRA. At k=40, ActFlow keeping five singular directions raises the mean held-out ARC-Easy accuracy over the six locked models from 0.05 to 0.85, against 0.88 for fine-tuning and 0.92 for the honest models. Furthermore, it scores higher than the smallest-norm rule in 16 of the 18 combinations of locked model and k, and its steering direction is nearly orthogonal to the honest difference-in-means direction. It also unlocks two LoRA locks where the honest direction fails.
