We examine the relationship between gender equality and fertility ideals, focusing on the role of societal norms about men’s participation in care and household work, known as the second half of the gender revolution. We set out to capture how the prevalence of this revolution translates into fertility ideals on the societal level and among different social groups. Data come from the ISSP module 2012, covering 26 societies. The first objective is to examine the relationship between gender equality norms and fertility ideals across national contexts. The second objective is to compare how measures of gender equality focusing on the first half of the gender revolution, and the second half, respectively, are associated with fertility ideals. As previous research focusing on the first half of the gender revolution noted and/or predicted that actual or intended fertility tends to be comparatively lower among women, the highly educated, younger generations, and the non-religious, our third objective is to analyse the extent to which norms embracing the second half have the capacity to modify these relationships. The results show that norms about gender equality are positively related to fertility ideals and seem to influence patterns of fertility ideals among social groups. In societies with strong gender equality norms, women, the highly educated, and the young display comparatively higher fertility ideals. In societies with weak gender equality norms, these patterns are reversed. Differences depending on gender equality norm measures were small but systematically in favour of those capturing the second half of the gender revolution.
Rising survey costs, increasing internet usage, and restrictions during the pandemic have accelerated a shift from face-to-face (Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, or CAPI) to web-based interviews (Computer Assisted Web Interviews, or CAWI). This paper analyses the consequences of this shift for the comparability of survey-based measurements of demographic key indicators. We use data from a unique experiment on the modes of data collection such as CAPI or CAWI (in the following: “modes”), conducted in the Generations and Gender Survey in Germany, Croatia, and Portugal. We calculate mode-specific means and ratios of selected indicators and perform regression analyses to estimate mode effects. In all countries, we find a few distinct mode-selection effects: Less educated people are more underrepresented in CAWI, and urban regions are underrepresented in CAPI mode. Mode-measurement effects vary widely across indicators and country contexts. For sensitive questions, there are less social desirability biases in CAWI. For questions with a high respondent burden, there are less survey satisficing biases in CAPI. Loop questions with a high respondent burden are of particular concern. The mode shift challenges comparability between data collections, in longitudinal analyses and in cross-country comparisons. Data users should use weights for descriptive analyses, control for the mode where possible, and consider mode differences when interpreting results. The unique data source allows insights into mode effects among demographic indicators that were not possible before.
Across Europe, reception systems share key structural features, such as collective accommodation, capacity-based allocation, and highly variable waiting times. Yet quantitative evidence on what happens to asylum-seekers during the application period remains scarce and is largely confined to the largest receiving countries. Most research on refugee integration begins only after a residence permit is granted, leaving the asylum-seeking phase itself poorly understood, despite research pointing to how waiting times, reception-centre conditions, and residential (in)stability can shape subsequent integration trajectories. This paper addresses two interlinked gaps in the literature: the demographic selection mechanisms determining whose claims are approved and therefore shapes the refugee population, and the dynamics of reception-centre stays, including the competing pathways through which asylum-seekers exit their first centre. Drawing on linked administrative registers covering the full population of asylum-seekers arriving in Norway between 2005 and 2016 (N ≈ 104,000), this study estimate continuous-time event-history and competing-risks models for time to decision, likelihood of approval, and four exits from the first ordinary reception centre: resettlement, relocation, registered departure, and disappearance. Outcomes vary systematically by year of arrival, country of origin, sex, age, and family status. Women and unaccompanied minors have higher approval rates, while young men arriving alone seem to face a “labour-migrant penalty”. The results suggest vast differences in experiences during the asylum-seeking period and by including the asylum-seeking period in further research and policy discussions, we can better understand heterogeneities in integration trajectories.
Housing expenditure can reflect two distinct dynamics: affordability constraints that limit resources available for childbearing, and willingness to pay for family-oriented housing that may support childbearing. Prior research relying on property prices primarily captures affordability constraints, while the limited literature using household-level housing expenditure has only begun to address willingness-to-pay considerations. This study examines how rent and mortgage payments relate to fertility in the United Kingdom from 1992 to 2021, and how these associations vary by housing tenure and income. Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey and Understanding Society, multilevel discrete-time hazard models estimate the likelihood of first, second, and third births. Results show that higher housing costs are positively associated with first, second, and third births among owner-occupied households. Among private and social renters, housing expenditure shows no clear relationship with childbearing. Although fertility follows a clear income gradient, there is no evidence that the housing expenditure–fertility association differs across income quartiles. Interaction tests further indicate stability in these associations across historical periods. Overall, the findings suggest that household-level housing expenditure provides insight into how housing investment and fertility are jointly structured beyond what macro-level affordability indicators reveal.
This study examines home-leaving patterns among Middle Eastern (ME) immigrants and youth with ME backgrounds in Sweden using population register data for individuals aged 17 to 35 between 1998 and 2022. Applying competing risks models, we analyse transitions from the parental home to independent living while accounting for marriage as an alternative pathway. The results show that youth of ME origin are less likely than native Swedes to leave the parental home for independent living and more likely to transition directly into marriage. These differences are particularly pronounced among the second generation and among women. Individual and parental socio-economic characteristics explain only a small share of the observed gaps between immigrants and natives, while neighbourhood unemployment is strongly associated with lower transition rates to independent living. Overall, the findings highlight persistent differences in the timing and pathways of leaving the parental home between immigrant-origin youth and the native population.
Recall questions provide the possibility of obtaining longitudinal information in cross-sectional surveys and are often used in family research. Yet, recall instruments may suffer from measurement issues. This study links a recent cross-sectional survey that includes recall histories of all unions involving cohabitation to administrative cohabitation records for Denmark and assesses the recall error in cohabitation status histories. Under mild assumptions, it distinguishes recall error from other survey error types, allowing for assessing the increase in recall error as time to the recalled period increases. The quality of recall for living with a partner decreases in a linear fashion by 0.5-0.6% points per year on average over a 20-year period. Results are robust to a series of sensitivity tests. The presented estimate of recall error for cohabitation status likely provides a lower bound for general recall error and shows by example how regression calibration methods can be used to correct for recall error even if only a small random subset of data includes true values. Recall instruments used in family research are prone to recall error, and failing to account for this may lead to biased estimates especially for longer recall periods.
Lifespan inequality is a fundamental indicator of population health, reflecting inequalities in the timing of death. Life expectancy-based indicators have been widely used to monitor changes in lifespan variation across populations. This study proposes using indicators relative to the modal age at death (M): the standard deviation below the mode, SD(M-) , which captures variation in premature mortality, and the standard deviation above the mode, SD(M+) , which reflects variation in senescent mortality. Although trends in SD(M+) are relatively well documented, less is known about how SD(M-) has changed over time and what drives these changes. This study aims to (1) document and compare trends in SD(M-) and SD(M+) across high-income countries since 1960, and (2) examine the contribution of cause-specific mortality to changes in SD(M-) in selected countries. To achieve this, we propose a novel two-step decomposition method. In the first step, changes in SD(M-) are decomposed into two components: one attributable to shifts in the modal age itself (“mode” component) and another to changes in the shape of the age-at-death distribution (“distribution” component). In the second step, the “distribution” component is further decomposed by cause of death. Applying this framework to data from Japan and the U.S., results revealed that the decline in SD(M-) in the U.S. was primarily driven by reductions in heart disease and neoplasm mortality. However, these gains were partially offset by increased variation linked to infectious diseases and external causes. In Japan, declines in SD(M-) were primarily driven by reductions in cerebrovascular diseases, heart disease (women), and neoplasms (men), while increases in variation since the mid-1990s were largely attributable to external causes and neoplasms (women). This decomposition is a useful tool for identifying the factors that drive or hinder the compression of premature mortality.
In most European countries, women’s labour force participation differs strongly by migration background. As employment trajectories unfold as a result of the interplay of employment entries and exits, employment gaps might be rooted in differential risks of entering and/or exiting employment. However, available research mainly addresses differences by migration background in employment rates or the initial school-to-work transition, thereby obscuring the underlying dynamic process through which repeated employment entries and exits accumulate and shape diverging employment trajectories. Therefore, this study uses longitudinal microdata on women’s employment trajectories in tandem with innovative multistate hazard and microsimulation models to quantify the relative importance of differential risks of entering and exiting employment as dynamics shaping differences in early employment by women’s migration background in Belgium. Our results indicate that differences in early employment between migrants’ daughters and women without a migration background are mainly driven by lower probabilities of entering employment. Except for second generation Southern European women (for whom the employment difference with native women is also limited), the barriers for employment entry clearly outweigh the barriers for employment stability. This is particularly true for 1.5 generation women who migrated after the age of 12, as a sizeable share never enters employment during the first four years after graduation. Hence, our results indicate that particularly policies aimed at reducing barriers to employment entry could substantially enhance the early employment of migrants’ daughters in Belgium.
This brief report delves into the poverty dynamics of second-generation immigrant (G2) children in Sweden and Finland, comparing them with their peers from the majority population. These are unique contexts to examine such socioeconomic inequalities since they are the two highest ranked countries in terms of the Migrant Integration Policy Index. This study draws on longitudinal full-population register data from 2011–2019 for children aged 0–4. This study contributes to existing research by providing a detailed, up-to-date analysis of socioeconomic disparities between a wide range of second-generation immigrant groups and majority children during early childhood—a period widely recognized as critical for development and strongly influenced by work-family reconciliation and family welfare policies. Findings reveal significant inequalities with G2 children facing longer exposure to poverty, higher poverty persistence and higher poverty entry rates than majority children. Interestingly, the G2’s longer exposure to poverty is not due to a higher likelihood of remaining poor, but rather a greater risk of falling into poverty. The study underscores the severe poverty levels among some immigrant groups, G2 Somalis being the chief example, as a critical challenge to equality and social stability in both countries.
Migration research has long been divided between studies of drivers, which focus on the factors shaping migration flows, and studies of patterns, which describe how these flows are organised across space. Theories of migration typically identify and operationalise drivers, but are often less explicit about patterns. As a result, migration theories are usually evaluated using goodness-of-fit measures that assess explanatory power but pay limited attention to spatial accuracy. This article addresses this limitation by introducing a simulation-based procedure to evaluate the spatial accuracy of migration theories. Starting from an observed system of origin-destination migration flows, the procedure generates synthetic systems that reflect the spatial outcomes implied by a given theory. These synthetic migration systems are then compared to the observed case to assess spatial accuracy. The procedure is applied to intra-European migration flows from 2002 to 2021 and illustrated using two long-standing migration theories: the gravity model and migration systems theory. Both theories achieve high explanatory power under conventional goodness-of-fit metrics, and migration systems theory performs better overall. However, the empirical analysis shows that both theories fail to reproduce important spatial features of the European context, including the high level of reciprocity of flows and the observed migration profiles of Eastern and Northern European countries. These findings highlight how strong statistical fit does not imply accurate spatial representation. Evaluating migration theories through their implied spatial outcomes provides new insights into their limitations and offers a complementary and integrative tool for migration research.
This study examines how the introduction of an abortion ban can shape the next generation’s family formation trajectories, and whether the influence of the ban varies by gender and parental socioeconomic status (SES). Focusing on Romania’s abortion ban period under the Ceaușescu regime, we investigate changes in the probability of being married, the age at leaving the parental home and at first marriage, and spousal age characteristics. Using two complementary datasets, the 2011 Romanian census and the 2005 Generations and Gender Survey, and employing a regression discontinuity design, we find that compared to their counterparts born before the abortion ban, women born under the ban regime left their parental home later, formed their first marriage later, and had a lower probability of being married. This postponement effect was mainly driven by women with lower parental SES. Conversely, we do not observe significant changes in men’s family formation outcomes, except for a higher likelihood of marriage among men with higher parental SES who were born after the ban. The spousal age difference was smaller for both women and men born during the abortion ban. Findings show that abortion restrictions can have lasting effects not only on the individuals who are directly affected by them, but also on the next generation’s family formation trajectories.
Research on internal migration has paid limited attention to how job quality influences repeat migration. We theorize three possible scenarios where job quality may exert a dampening, facilitating, or null effect on repeat migration, a complex process contingent on gender and educational attainment. Using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we construct comprehensive measures of objective and subjective job quality and assess their roles in shaping repeat migration among rural-to-urban migrants. Our analyses reveal a clear gendered pattern, where objective job quality significantly affects repeat migration among male migrants but not among female migrants. Moreover, substantial educational variation exists within male migrants. Among men with some college education, higher-quality jobs significantly reduce the likelihood of repeat migration, particularly return moves to rural home villages. In contrast, job quality is not significantly related to repeat migration among men without college education. By examining China’s large and dynamic internal migrant population, our study contributes new insights into repeat migration processes amid growing employment precarity in developing countries, and offers policy implications for promoting migrant integration and reducing labour market inequality in rapidly urbanizing societies.
This paper sheds light on the health-related, economic, and social well-being of single parents of children with disabilities, a population often overlooked in research. Much literature examines single parenthood and child disability independently and generally finds negative consequences of experiencing either. Yet, little is known about the well-being of parents at the intersections of single parenthood and raising a child with a disability. Drawing on data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study, the study compares the health-related, economic, and social well-being of single parents of children with disabilities to that of single parents of non-disabled children and partnered parents. The findings show that single parents of children with disabilities experience significantly worse mental and physical health, higher rates of poverty and lower employment rates. These challenges are compounded by the lack of appropriate childcare and limited support from non-residential parents and extended family members, which further constrains parents’ ability to work. This study investigates a neglected social group and contributes to the literature by integrating two separate strands of research—single parenthood and child disability—and identifying the unique disadvantages that stand at their intersection.
Education is linked to whether and with whom individuals form partnerships. However, it is largely unclear how educational differences in union formation and matching with equally, more, or less educated partners shape educational disparities in fertility. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we applied marginal structural models to investigate how higher education affects the probabilities of ever having a first and a second child, and to what extent these effects operate through union formation (having a partner or not) and assortative mating (having a highly educated partner or not). We compared women and men socialised in East and West Germany before reunification, two contexts with distinct gender and stratification regimes. Findings indicate that higher education influenced fertility directly and indirectly through partnership formation, but only marginally through partners’ education. Moreover, findings varied across contexts. In West Germany, higher education reduced women’s probability of becoming mothers but had minimal impact on second births. For men, higher education increased the probabilities of having both a first and a second child. These gendered effects emerged because higher education influenced fertility directly and indirectly via union formation. In East Germany, higher education had limited effects on fertility, except for increasing men’s second birth probabilities. These weak effects resulted from small direct effects, counterbalanced by indirect effects linking higher education and fertility through union formation and assortative mating. Our study contributes to debates about precursors to family formation, underscoring the importance of union formation as a mechanism linking education and fertility.
It is well-established that deaths peak in winter and show throughs in summer. However, it remains unclear how mortality patterns will unfold as the climate warms, bringing fewer cold days and more hot days. One concern is “harvesting,” where a short-term surge in deaths among the most vulnerable people is then followed by a period with fewer deaths than usual because those individuals would have died soon anyway. Under global warming, it is possible that higher mortality rates in summer will result not only from an increase in extreme heat events but also from a seasonal shift in excess deaths that would have previously occurred in winter. Combining mortality data from the Italian Statistical Office with temperature data from the Copernicus Data Store for Italy at the provincial level from 2011 to 2019, we employ Poisson regression models to estimate the effects of temperature extremes on mortality among individuals aged 60 and above. The results reveal that temperatures outside the comfort zone, both lower and higher, are associated with increased monthly mortality rates, with the strongest effects seen in the most extreme temperature ranges. We find evidence of a harvesting effect, particularly for moderately warm days (≥ 85th to < 95th percentile). However, even after high winter mortality, extremely hot days still lead to significant increases in deaths—especially among individuals aged 80 and above. This suggests that while some short-term mortality displacement occurs, it is not enough to offset the full impact of extreme heat, highlighting the continued vulnerability of older populations.
This article presents an investigation into the gendered outcomes of inter-regional moves in six European countries, adopting a life-course perspective. Analyses are based on retrospective data from SHARELIFE for birth cohorts from the 1930s to 1960s in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Sweden. Linear probability panel models with fixed effects are used to examine the association between inter-regional migration and employment status over time, while assessing whether it differs by gender and family status. Results show that men experience improved employment probabilities following migration, regardless of their family status, and that these outcomes are consistent across countries. Moreover, the likelihood of employment for men continues to gradually increase several years after the move. In contrast, inter-regional mobility favours single women more than partnered women, especially mothers. Results, however, do not confirm a pattern of continued disadvantages, as mobility does not further reduce the employment prospects of mothers over time. The largest differences in the association between geographical mobility and employment between single women and mothers are observed in Mediterranean countries, while in more egalitarian countries like Sweden these differences are comparatively small.
Countries with low mortality show uneven success in improving longevity. Smoking—still a dominant health risk—is a major determinant of these divergent trajectories. Our study aims to determine: a) the continuing influence of smoking on national mortality trends, and b) the extent to which other factors are preventing countries from realizing their health potential. Using mortality data from 20 low-mortality countries (1950–2019), we quantify life expectancy and age-specific mortality differences as calendar years behind the current longevity frontier, defined as record smoking-eliminated life expectancy. We find that current life expectancy largely reflects smoking-eliminated records from two decades ago, with a notable gender paradox across most countries: men are moving closer to the optimal health benchmarks, while women are drifting further away, although men still bear a greater burden of past smoking. While longevity leaders differ from laggards mainly in mortality at advanced ages, laggards show also extensive developmental delays throughout most of the working ages and the second half of life. Our results highlight the diminishing effect of smoking and the role of additional adverse factors in delayed mortality improvement. However, the positive effects from smoking declines have not yet been fully realized, as evidenced by the still comparatively high reduction in development delays after eliminating smoking. Nevertheless, the realization of further health potential largely depends on countries’ ability to manage health in old age, including the increasing burden of chronic disease.
Despite ongoing efforts to reduce health disparities, substantial mortality differences persist across and within European countries. Avoidable mortality, i.e. deaths preventable through timely medical care or effective public health measures, provides a useful framework for assessing these inequalities. While previous studies largely focus on national differences, this study examines spatial differences and trends in avoidable mortality at the district level. We analysed official cause-of-death statistics for 581 districts across 10 European countries from 2002 to 2019, using age-standardised death rates (SDR) as the primary outcome. Spatiotemporal clusters were identified using emerging hotspot analysis. Our results show that SDRs for avoidable mortality declined across most districts for both sexes, yet marked disparities persist between men and women and between amenable and preventable mortality. Districts in Central and Eastern Europe consistently exhibited higher SDRs than those in Western and Southern Europe, while Germany occupies an intermediate position with particularly high rates for amenable mortality. Spatiotemporal hotspot analysis confirmed these patterns and showed that persistent high-mortality (hotspots) and low-mortality (coldspots) clusters persist, reflecting both substantial within-country inequalities and cohesive cross-border mortality patterns. These findings suggest that national boundaries are not always the most meaningful lines for explaining health outcomes. Instead, local socioeconomic and structural determinants of health play a central role. Persistent hotspots highlight areas where targeted interventions are urgently needed, while coldspots may offer lessons for best practices. Addressing these inequalities requires targeted, place-based, and transnational strategies to effectively reduce health inequalities in Europe.
Considerable variation exists across societies in the prevalence of demographic trends associated with the second demographic transition (SDT). We propose that these persistent disparities are, in part, determined by long-standing cultural traits. Employing an epidemiological approach, we proxy the inherited component of five key values—gender egalitarianism, religiosity, institutional distrust, generalized trust, and family ties—from the descendants of immigrants in the United States, and link them to SDT outcomes across 23 countries. Our analysis investigates whether societies pre-exposed to these specific values through intergenerational transmission are more or less likely to exhibit SDT, operationalized here as the share of births outside marriage. Our findings reveal that several of these traits exert a notable influence when interacting with educational expansion. Gender egalitarianism, institutional distrust, and generalized trust exhibit positive associations with non-marital birth rates when coupled with increased education. Meaning that, with the broad educational expansion that has taken place across all Western countries after the IIWW, the SDT spreads much faster in societies where these three inherited values are deeply ingrained. Conversely, family ties demonstrate a negative association, while no strong evidence is found regarding the influence of religiosity. In conclusion, our study underscores the necessity of a nuanced cultural approach to the SDT framework, acknowledging the importance of local values alongside the global ideational shift.
An incomplete understanding of biases affecting the representativeness of genealogies has hindered their full exploitation. We report on a series of experiments on synthetic populations assessing how structural biases in ascendant genealogies affect the accuracy of demographic estimates. Using the SOCSIM microsimulation programme and Swedish fertility and mortality data (1751–2022), we analyse three biases: lineage survival, limited coverage of collateral kin, and selective omission. Comparing demographic measures from ‘fully recorded’ and ‘bias-infused’ synthetic populations, we find that across the period, including only direct ancestors can underestimate total fertility rate (TFR) ( $$\approx -42\%$$ ) and overestimate life expectancy at birth ( $$e_0$$ ) ( $$\approx +33\%$$ ), mainly due to missing infant, child, and some young adult deaths. Including direct ancestors’ offspring shifts TFR to overestimation ( $$\approx +21\%$$ ) while improving mortality estimation across all ages, with $$e_0$$ overestimation reduced to $$\approx +1.8\%$$ . Our study shows that completeness of family trees is essential for obtaining accurate demographic estimates from genealogies.
