Este artículo reproduce la conferencia de Andreu Mas-Colell en el panel "Metodología en Análisis Económico" del Congreso Mundial de la International Economic Association (Medellín, diciembre de 2023), en la que reflexiona sobre el papel de la teoría económica frente a tres herramientas emergentes: el poder computacional, los grandes datos y la inteligencia artificial. El panel, presidido por Eric Maskin (Harvard), contó con las intervenciones de Wendy Carlin (University College London y CEPR), Raj Chetty (Harvard) y el propio Mas-Colell (Universitat Pompeu Fabra).
Driven by improved living conditions, scientific advances, and a sustained decline in fertility, Colombia is experiencing rapid demographic ageing. This transition has occurred amid persistent socioeconomic inequalities that translate into disparities in older adults’ health, well-being, and material living conditions. Although objective indicators are indispensable for measuring these inequalities, subjective well-being provides a complementary lens by capturing self-perceptions of life satisfaction, emotional states, and sense of purpose— dimensions closely linked to health and quality of life in old age. However, existing evidence is largely concentrated in high-income countries, leaving important gaps for contexts such as Colombia, where poverty and structural inequality shape ageing trajectories. Using microdata from the 2023 National Quality of Life Survey (ENCV), this study analyzes subjective well-being among Colombia’s population aged 60 and older. and develops a replicable composite indicator designed to monitor disparities, including gender, informing policies aimed at improving quality of life in old age.
This article examines the impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth in Mexico. Using panel data for 30 Mexican states from 1990 to 2021, we apply panel data estimations and the System GMM estimator to address endogeneity concerns. Results indicate that demographic dividend alone does not have a statistically significant effect; however, economic growth increases when labor force participation is ensured. Accordingly, policies promoting labor force participation should be implemented, alongside a forward-looking approach to converting the demographic dividend into savings that will increase productive investment.
Nota del Editor de Desarrollo y Sociedad Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri sobre nuestro número 102.
Tarjeta Alimentar (TA) has been in place since 2020 as an income supplement for families receiving Argentina’s Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH). The amount of the benefit varies depending on the number of children and adolescents in the household. This study assesses the impact of TA eligibility on food insecurity (FI) using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. Based on a sample of urban households with children and adolescents who were AUH recipients, the findings indicate that TA eligibility significantly reduced severe food insecurity in 2020. Owing to the program’s design, severe FI reductions were larger than the average in households with two child recipients, as well as in those with younger children. Moreover, substantial decreases in severe FI were registered in single-parent households and in households where mothers had low education levels. Given that the identification strategy is based on eligibility (age-based rule) rather than observed receipt, the estimates should be interpreted as an Intention-To-Treat (ITT) effect of being eligible for TA.
This study examines the relationship between natural resources, institutions, and economic performance over the period 1995-2019. Using cross-sectional data from a large sample of countries, a set of regressions is estimated through the two-stage least squares method. The findings indicate, first, that measures of natural resource dependence and abundance are negatively associated with both institutional quality and economic growth (1995-2019). At the same time, the estimates reveal a positive relationship between measures of natural resource abundance and dependence and the level of per capita income (2019), alongside a negative association between natural resources and institutional quality. Overall, the results suggest that natural resources may adversely affect institutions and, in some resource-abundant countries, hinder economic development.
Recent research on informality in Colombia shows that reforms aimed at stimulating the demand for formal employment by reducing corporate taxes have had only modest effects on the relative size of informal employment. Given the apparent limits of demand-side policies and considering that 73 % of informal workers are self-employed this paper examines the incentives that influence the supply of formal labour. Specifically, it quantifies the monetary costs faced by informal workers when deciding to become formal. The paper defines the potential monetary loss associated with formalisation through the Formalisation Tax Rate (FTR) and calculates it across several simulated scenarios. When the monetary benefits granted by law to formal employees are included (such as family and transport subsidies and mandatory bonuses), some informal employees may have an incentive to formalise. However, self-employed workers—who make up the majority of informal employment—would have no incentive to enter formal work unless their income base were raised to at least the level of the monthly minimum wage.
Nota del Editor de Desarrollo y Sociedad Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri sobre nuestro número 100.
Income inequality is a structural characteristic of Latin America. This article examines how perceptions of distributive injustice relate to life satisfaction in 17 countries, using microdata from the 2023 Latinobarómetro and a multilevel ordered probit model. The results show that perceiving income distribution as unfair or very unfair is associated with lower life satisfaction. This relationship can be explained by mechanisms such as social comparison, weakened cohesion and trust, and perceived economic tensions that affect subjective well-being. The study provides robust evidence for understanding how distributive perceptions shape well-being and underscores the need to incorporate these perceptions into the design of public policies aimed at improving quality of life in the region.
Given the need to rethink fiscal rules, seeking a balance that strengthens the fiscal anchor while protecting investment to sustain economic growth, this document addresses the following question: Which fiscal rule is most effective in ensuring fiscal sustainability and credibility in Colombia, while at the same time safeguarding public investment? To answer this, three rules are evaluated: i) a golden fiscal rule combined with a debt rule, ii) an expenditure rule combined with a debt rule, and iii) a structural net primary balance rule, as defined in Law 2155 of 2021. The analysis is conducted through a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated and estimated for Colombia. The results show that the golden rule is more effective in containing the fiscal deficit and public debt as a share of GDP.
This article analyzes the impact of the gradual return to classrooms on the academic performance of two cohorts of students whose in-person education was interrupted by the health emergency caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The first cohort consists of students who were in 10th grade in 2020 and took the Saber 11 exam in 2021; the second includes those who were in 9th grade in 2020 and sat for the Saber 11 exam in 2022. The findings show a positive effect of the progressive return to classes on Saber 11 scores. For the second cohort, in the private sector, it helped close performance gaps among students exposed to different learning methodologies, whereas in the public sector, these gaps remain.
In 1944, just five years after the controversy between John Maynard Keynes and Jan Tinbergen, Lawrence R. Klein found himself in a unique position. As a leading expert on Keynesian economics in the United States, Klein was recruited at the Cowles Commission to rebuild Tinbergen’s macro-econometric model of the US economy. This paper explores Klein’s macro-econometric approach as a serious attempt to reconcile Tinbergen’s work with Keynes’s criticisms. For Klein, macro-econometric modeling was not merely a tool for generating insights about the economic world but also a practice that took seriously the inherent limitations of statistical and mathematical methods. Ultimately, it was this complex practice—rather than econometric techniques alone—that enabled macroeconomists to discover, understand, and articulate concrete observations about the economy.
Cocoa production in Peru has seen remarkable growth in recent years, positioning it as a potential driver for poverty reduction. This study examines the relationship between cocoa cultivation and poverty levels in cocoa-producing regions during the 2008–2019 period. The analysis employs panel data regression models estimated using pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects approaches. To address omitted variable bias, control variables, and the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator are incorporated. The results indicate that a 20% increase in productivity leads to a 0.2 percentage point reduction in poverty rates, while price fluctuations have no significant effect. These findings underscore the importance of policies focused on enhancing cocoa productivity as a means to alleviate poverty.
The Todos a Aprender Program (TAP) has been the Colombian government’s flagship initiative for addressing low academic performance in primary schools over the past decade. While previous evaluations indicate limited overall effects due to heterogeneity in its implementation, they have underscored the importance of consistent monitoring. However, prior studies have yet to integrate implementation outcomes with program results to offer a comprehensive assessment. This study fills that gap by employing matched multilevel models and a metric treatment variable to evaluate the TAP’s impact. Results indicate that the TAP positively influences school efficiency, though its effectiveness varies significantly based on the extent of program implementation. These results highlight the need for ongoing monitoring of TAP's operation and call for further evaluation to identify the program's saturation points.
This study examines the impact of COVID-19 quarantine measures on employment in Lima Metropolitan Area and Callao in 2020, with a particular focus on gender disparities. Women’s vulnerability in the labor market, reflected in lower wages, domestic responsibilities, and high informality rates, underscores the importance of this analysis. Using data from the Permanent Employment Survey (EPE) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methodology, the study evaluates how mobility restrictions affected working hours and hourly income. Results indicate a reduction in working hours, with the most significant impacts observed among female heads of households. Conversely, women in essential jobs and men in the formal sector experienced increases in working hours. Regarding income, women saw substantial reductions, whereas men in essential jobs and women in the formal sector recorded income increases. The findings highlight the need for public policies aimed at mitigating labor inequalities and protecting the most vulnerable workers.
New technologies are reshaping the global economy and labor markets. This article examines the effects of job automation risk on wage gaps in Mexico. Using data from the 2024 National Survey of Occupation and Employment, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is applied, correcting for sample selection bias, to estimate the effects of automation probability on wages. The findings reveal negative impacts of automation on wages, particularly affecting low-skilled workers. Due to regional human capital specialization, the Central and Southern regions face grater wage gaps, which can be explained by observable differences among workers. In contrast, the Northern, Northwestern, and Western regions face the strongest effects of wage discrimination due to automation probability. The study concludes that education plays a strategic role in reducing wage gaps caused by the risk of automation.
Nota del Editor de Desarrollo y Sociedad Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri sobre nuestro número 100.
The global rise in income inequality has heightened interest in how fiscal policy—particularly the composition of tax revenues—affects income distribution. This study examines the relationship between government revenues from direct and indirect taxes and income inequality, contributing to the tax incidence literature through three key innovations: it focuses on a recent period (2000–2012), compares countries with different income levels and tax structures, and addresses endogeneity using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) estimator. The empirical analysis reveals that a greater reliance on indirect taxation is associated with higher income inequality, while a larger share of direct taxes correlates with reduced inequality. These patterns hold across both OECD and non-OECD countries. Given the higher Gini coefficients observed in non-OECD economies, the findings highlight the importance of enhancing tax progressivity as a policy strategy to reduce income disparities and promote more equitable economic development.
Access to financial markets, digitization, and formality have been identified as key factors associated with firm performance. This paper presents a detailed descriptive analysis of the income gap among a group of micro-businesses (MBs) in Colombia’s Pacific region, examining how various factors relate to this gap. Using data from MBs participating in a program by Foundation WWB Colombia and applying the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, the analysis shows that formal MBs owned by men—with stronger financial inclusion and digital skills—tend to generate higher income than their counterparts. Complementary qualitative fieldwork reveals that micro-entrepreneurs often perceive informal credit as more attractive than bank credit due to its easier access and greater payment flexibility. These findings suggest that policies promoting women's empowerment, formalization, digital literacy, and access to financial services may contribute to narrowing these income gaps among MBs in Colombian’s Pacific Region.
Given Colombia’s persistently high rate of informality, this paper explores the association between informal workers’ residential locations in Cali and intra‑urban labor informality. Employing microdata from the 2012–2013 Employment and Quality of Life Survey, spatial‑dependence models are estimated across analytically homogeneous regions to ensure statistical validity. The results reveal marked patterns of spatial segregation: areas with lower educational attainment and a higher proportion of Afro‑Colombian residents host a large share of informal workers and exhibit a statistically significant positive relationship between residential proximity to the workplace and the prevalence of labor informality. These findings underscore the need for targeted educational and vocational training, formalization policies, and improved public transport infrastructure to mitigate mobility barriers and foster greater integration into the formal labor market.
