Amidst the wave of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,the development of new quality productive forces represented by intelligent technology will shape the form,structure and nature of new production relations that adapt to it,such as the lesser status of human-human coordination,the increased importance of human-machine coordination,and fundamental changes to the ownership relations,corporate organizational forms,distribution methods,management structures,and so on.The assumptions,logic,and paradigms of economics that are compatible with the first three industrial revolutions will all be challenged.Therefore,it is necessary to comprehensively reform the actual economic system and promptly adjust the capital system,industrial policy,employment and distribution policy,market policy,and education,science and technology,and talent policy that are not suitable for the development of new quality productive forces.
The proposal of developing new quality productive forces is based on the reality of the domestic economy and the complex international environment in the new era,to develop advanced productive forces needed for Chinese modernization,and to build a qualitative state of advanced productive forces that conform to the new development philosophy.This paper systematically analyzes the three characteristics of new quality productive forces:green,digital and high-tech,and demonstrates the key driving role of technological innovation in accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces.The results show that technological innovation strongly supports the formation of the modern industrial system through basic,critical and disruptive technological breakthroughs and their application to the industrial system,through the transformation of traditional industries,the promotion of emerging industries,and the derivation of future industries.The study shows that the new quality productive forces can help to enhance the value of the industrial chain for developing countries,contribute to the global economic recovery,and form a new economic growth pole.The authors believe that to accelerate technological innovation needed for the development of new quality productive forces,it is necessary to further improve China's systems,enhance the ability of independent research and development,accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies,seize the commanding heights of technology,and actively build an open technological innovation system.
The slow relative productivity growth in the service sector is at the heart of “Baumol’s disease”, and the integration of services and manufacturing may offer a critical pathway to address this issue. This paper uses China’s tax survey data and OECD-ICIO input-output tables to examine how service inputs enhance the relative productivity of Chinese service firms and help overcome the “Baumol’s disease” trap. Additionally, it validates global patterns of this phenomenon through cross-country data. The results indicate that (1) increasing service sector input to the manufacturing sector improves the relative productivity of the service sector, narrows the wage cost gap between the two industries, and facilitates the crossing of the “Baumol’s disease” trap; (2) service sector input into high-tech manufacturing and into the manufacturing sector in developed countries is particularly effective in overcoming the “Baumol’s disease” trap, with producer services playing a significant role; (3) service sector input into manufacturing enhances competition, scale, and innovation within the service sector, which is vital for improving its relative productivity; and (4) cross-country data support the conclusion that service sector input into manufacturing can enhance the relative productivity of the service sector, establishing a global framework for overcoming the “Baumol’s disease” trap.
Abstract The promotion of fuller and higher-quality employment is a prime task for China’s high-quality development. Both employment security (ES) and employment quality (EQ) need to be improved for women who, as an essential part of labor force, have long been faced with high stress and employment threshold. The role of digital transformation in promoting women’s employment through reducing the cost of job information search is analyzed with the Job Search Theory in this paper. By using China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data, this research found that digital transformation of households in China contributes to women’s employment significantly, raises the number and proportion of female family members in employment, and enhances women’ access to medical care insurance, endowment insurance, unemployment insurance, housing fund and overtime pay. Digital transformation can improve the information accessibility of households, and the reduction in information asymmetries benefits women’s employment, as indicated by the mechanism analysis. The positive impact of digital transformation is more pronounced for households in Central China, Western China and provinces with high unemployment rates, as well as those supporting the elderly and without housing. This paper will serve as a reference to fuel high-quality employment and reduce difficulties for women in the context of digital transformation.
Transportation infrastructure and household consumption are important issues in China.Due to excess sensitivity of household consumption,predictable income changes will cause substantial changes in consumption behavior.Understanding the excess sensitivity of consumption is the key to unleashing consumption potential,unblocking domestic flows and promoting high-quality development in China.However,no studies have investigated the relation between transportation network density and excess sensitivity of consumption. This paper matches panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)of 2010,2012,2014,2016,2018 and macro transportation network density to explore the impact of transportation infrastructure on excess sensitivity of household consumption from the perspective of domestic market integration.This paper intends to illustrate the importance of transportation infrastructure and its influence on excess sensitivity of household consumption.Besides a series of robustness tests,heterogeneity tests and endogenous issues tests such as the instrumental variable method,we further explored the working mechanism of this effect.No previous research in the transportation infrastructure literature has accurately examined these problems. The results show that fast-growing transportation infrastructure significantly weakens the degree of excess sensitivity of household consumption.This conclusion was still robust after the instrumental variable method and a series of robustness tests were used.According to the heterogeneity tests,in terms of the weakening effect of transportation infrastructure,railroads rank the first,highways the second,substandard roads the third,waterways the fourth,and roads of other grades at the bottom.The mechanism test shows that transportation infrastructure has significant influence on the degree of excess sensitivity of household consumption by promoting domestic market integration.This paper confirms the weakening effect of transportation infrastructure.Improved transportation infrastructure will contribute to building a unified national market.Domestic market integration will weaken the degree of excess sensitivity of consumption and then stimulate consumption.This paper provides suggestions for implementing the strategy of boosting domestic demand,and helps the government understand households'consumption decision-making from a broader perspective.This study also provides a theoretical basis for the economic spillover effect of transportation infrastructure. This study contributes to the existing literature in the following five ways.First of all,this paper is one of the first to systematically investigate the impact of transportation infrastructure on Chinese excess sensitivity of household consumption at the micro level,and provides a new explanation for it.Second,this paper uses micro household-level consumption data from CFPS to investigate the impact of transportation infrastructure on excess sensitivity of household consumption.In contrast,numerous previous studies use macro aggregate consumption measures to explore the determinants of excess consumption sensitivity,which are not sufficiently comprehensive to capture micro facts about household consumption.Third,using the instrumental variable method,this paper constructs six instrumental variables to alleviate the endogeneity problem in the literature on the connection between transportation infrastructure and household consumption.This makes our main conclusions more convincing.Fourth,although the economic effects of transportation infrastructure have been widely researched by economists,few have definitely analyzed its impact on excess sensitivity of household consumption.This paper enriches the literature on the effects of transportation infrastructure.Finally,this study further identifies micro mechanisms through which transportation infrastructure affects the excess sensitivity of Chinese household consumption and deepens our understanding of their internal relationship.
本文以马克思再生产理论为基础构建了一个包含固定资本的三部类再生产模型,将收入分配和技术结构纳入财政支出乘数的分析框架,拓展了财政支出乘数影响因素的相关研究.以此为基础,本文运用中国1992年以来的投入产出表数据测算了各年度财政支出乘数,总结了收入分配、技术结构和财政支出结构变迁的典型事实及其对财政支出乘数的影响.研究发现:剩余价值率与财政支出乘数负相关,当收入分配制度改革使劳动收入份额不断提高时,财政支出乘数会变大,当前中国的劳动收入份额不断提升,有利于提高财政政策的效能;固定资本有机构成与财政支出乘数正相关,流动不变资本有机构成与财政支出乘数负相关,当发生固定资本偏向型的技术进步时财政支出乘数变大,发生流动不变资本偏向型的技术进步时财政支出乘数变小.本文认为在高质量发展和新发展格局构建的过程中,以共同富裕为导向的收入分配制度改革和创新驱动发展战略有助于财政政策的提质增效.
能否有效化解产能过剩事关经济高质量发展和社会稳定,在新发展格局下探究如何提升产能利用率具有重要的理论与现实意义.本文以我国服务业外资参股的政策调整为准自然实验,采用倍差法系统考察了服务业开放对企业产能利用率的影响及其传导途径.研究发现,服务业开放显著促进了企业产能利用率提升.机制分析结果表明,服务业开放通过提高生产率、促进出口扩张和减少非效率投资途径提升企业产能利用率.服务业开放的产能利用率提升效应对于民营企业、一般贸易企业、高行业资本密集度企业和低融资约束企业而言更大.此外,本文还考察了服务业开放对企业贸易模式和贸易方式转变的影响,发现服务业开放有助于推动出口企业从间接出口模式向直接出口模式转变,以及从非一般贸易(纯加工贸易、混合贸易)方式向一般贸易方式转变,并通过贸易模式和贸易方式的转变进一步提高了企业产能利用率.本文有助于加深对我国制造业企业产能利用率变化驱动因素的理解,为我国通过服务业市场开放化解产能过剩困境提供可行思路.
把握撬动世界科技强国建设的杠杆,需要找准并充分发挥推动自主创新的"国家特定优势".国内需求优势和产业数字化的领先发展是当前中国建设世界科技强国的特殊优势.本文回归创新源泉,提出产业数字化通过助推"需求引致创新"从而赋能科技强国建设的新命题,通过跨国投入产出表测算各国各制造业的本土需求和产业数字化水平,并与WIPO国际专利分类(IPC)数据匹配,利用"国家-行业"层面数据考察了产业数字化对本土需求引致创新的影响效应.研究发现,即便在开放条件下,本土需求仍然是引致创新的重要源泉,产业数字化通过提升供需匹配程度和提高研发效率等途径显著强化了"需求引致创新"效应,但这一强化效应受到基础科技能力和市场成长性的制约.进一步研究发现,市场制度环境不完善会抑制"需求引致创新"效应,而产业数字化可以缓解市场制度环境不完善对"需求引致创新"的制约效应.本文的研究从创新源泉视角拓展了产业数字化赋能创新的新途径,对发挥国内需求在科技强国建设中的重要作用提供了新的政策启示.
股东目标是高管薪酬契约的基础.随着以投资组合价值最大化为 目标的共同大股东日益增多,现有以单个企业价值最大化为 目标的薪酬契约理论已难以全面解释资本市场中高管薪酬倒挂现象.本文提出高管薪酬契约的"横向持股共谋理论",即与以往基于单个公司价值最大化目标不同,共同大股东会基于其投资组合整体价值最大化目标与公司高管签订薪酬契约,以此产生两者的"共谋效应".本文利用共同大股东投资组合上市公司数据对该理论进行了检验,研究发现,共同大股东的存在不会提升高管薪酬对其所在的单个企业业绩的敏感性,但提升了对共同大股东持股联结形成的投资组合整体业绩的敏感性,初步证实了"横向持股共谋理论"适用于中国资本市场,并发现负外部性机制和大股东权力制衡机制是共同大股东"共谋效应"的影响机理,委派董事是共同大股东"共谋效应"的作用路径.进一步检验表明,共同大股东与高管之间的"共谋效应"在市场势力较强的上市公司和投资者保护程度较低的地区较为明显,且共同大股东显著提升了持股企业高管薪酬.本文不仅拓展了薪酬契约理论和共同大股东研究,也为投资者保护制度和公司治理结构的完善提出了切实可行的建议.
科层制内部的任务分解和资源分配是中国政府治理的重要方式."行政发包制"是理解中国政府治理的思路之一,但是不同特点的任务如何"发包"给不同能力的下级等问题尚未被充分讨论.2015年,中央将科技创新工作的重要性提到前所未有的高度,这一冲击为本文研究省级政府如何向地市分配工作任务提供了契机.首先,本文把政府工作分为"明星型"任务和"守卫型"任务,并使用理论模型刻画了省级政府向不同能力的地市政府分配不同任务的行为特征.其次,基于2011-2018年288个地级市面板数据,利用各省人民政府发布的主体功能区规划文件作为分组依据,使用双重差分法研究了 2015年中央提出大力支持科技创新前后,两类地级市在财政科技支出上的变动差异.经验研究发现:(1)实验组地级市科技支出("明星型"任务)占财政支出比值增速明显快于其他城市;(2)省份越重视科技创新工作,则辖区内地级市的上述差异就越明显;(3)地级市科技支出占比与省内其他市科技支出占比呈现明显的负相关关系,印证了省级政府进行任务分配的机制.本研究对进一步理解中国地方政府治理的逻辑,推动省以下财政体制改革具有一定的借鉴意义.
揭示宏观经济与利率期限结构的混频作用机制有助于及时预判宏观经济形势,也是优化宏观政策跨周期和逆周期调控的基础和保障.本文融合中国独特的同比数据信息属性,提出一种包含日度信息的混频利率期限结构模型,即D-MF-NS模型.该模型引入累积器变量,避免可能出现的"维度灾"问题.结果表明,首先,与基准模型相比,即使包含新冠疫情期间的样本信息,日度混频模型对收益率曲线拟合效果依然占优.其次,通货膨胀率对高频利率期限结构水平因子有显著正向影响,其对水平因子预测方差在长短时间跨度中都有较大贡献,宏观经济跨周期和逆周期调节和操作均需要关注预期通胀机制.再次,日度高频斜率因子对GDP具有显著的正向影响,时间跨度无论是长期还是短期,收益率曲线斜率因子都是经济周期的稳定驱动因素.跨周期和逆周期政策的调控都需要重视收益率曲线斜率因子的作用机制.最后,我国货币政策在防通胀和促增长方面的跨周期调控效果明显好于逆周期调控效果.本文从数据频率的视角阐述利.率期限结构的作用机制并为宏观经济政策的跨周期和逆周期调控提供新的经验证据.
高质量卖家认证是缓解网上市场信息不对称问题的一种重要机制,本文针对当前网上市场平台纷纷利用自身大数据优势引入平台主导型认证机制的现象,首次从平台商业生态系统收益最大化角度出发,考察了平台主导型认证机制的选择问题.研究发现,当卖家质量差异较小时,平台采用传统"主动-收费"型自愿认证模式的收益更高;当卖家质量差异较大,且认证成本较低时,平台采用"被动-免费"型认证模式的收益更高;当卖家质量差异增大或平台的外部性收益较大时,"被动-免费"型认证模式更易形成平台收益优势;与"主动-收费"型认证模式相比,平台采用"被动-免费"型认证时,认证标准可以设置得更低进而使更多的卖家留在市场中.
传统劳动力流动理论无法解释中国劳动力候鸟式流动现象.本文构建了一个考虑房租和房价的异质技能劳动力两期流动模型,用于分析城市住房成本对异质技能劳动力流动的影响.理论推演发现:城市房租和房价的"剪刀差"导致了劳动力候鸟式流动,同时强化了劳动力技能特征的选择.实证分析表明:在劳动力一期流入过程中,城市房租不会阻碍劳动力流入城市,从而不产生技能筛选效应;在劳动力二期定居过程中,城市房价会降低劳动力的定居意愿,且对低技能劳动力的挤出作用更强,进而产生技能筛选效应.机制检验表明:异质技能劳动力流入城市带来的收入改善通常能够覆盖房租支出,但流入城市后低技能劳动力由于难以承担购房负担从而形成候鸟式流动.城市房价对因就业流动、跨省流动和农业户口的低技能劳动力定居意愿的负向影响较大.因此,政府部门实施"租购并举"政策,推动住房租赁市场发展,将有助于促进劳动力自由合理流动,进而有助于区域经济协调发展目标的实现.
本文系统探讨对外工程承包如何影响中国企业国际化.理论机制分析表明,对外工程承包可能通过弥补所有权优势的短板、降低市场进入的所有权优势门槛和节约市场搜索成本的"推力"促进中国企业对外直接投资,也可能通过放大东道国劳动力市场和制度的"拉力"吸引中国企业对外直接投资.据此,本文利用2005-2013年中国企业数据进行实证研究.研究发现,一方面,对外工程承包显著促进了中国企业在当地直接投资.该结论在稳健性检验和工具变量分析之后仍然成立.扩展性分析发现,对外工程承包的"推力"推动了中国企业跨越对发达国家的直接投资门槛、清除东道国制度障碍、打破企业所有制局限,并弥补了企业国际化经验的不足,从而验证了理论机制分析的对外工程承包联动企业"走出去"的"推力"机制.另一方面,对外工程承包放大了东道国劳动力市场、营商环境和制度质量吸引中国企业对外直接投资的"拉力",同时对外工程承包引致市场寻求型而不是资源获取型对外直接投资增加,从而驳斥了外界对中国对外工程承包和对外直接投资"新殖民主义"的论调.本文深入探讨中国对外工程承包与企业"走出去"的双向联动机制,为各界理解对外工程承包如何影响中国企业国际化提供理论和经验证据.
本文选取2014-2019年银行发起的信贷资产证券化项目作为研究样本,探讨整合审计对证券化资产出表效果的影响.具体而言,本文关注信贷资产证券化项目与其发起银行使用同一个会计师事务所对证券化资产出表的影响.研究结果显示,整合审计有助于推动证券化资产的出表,而会计师事务所在银行业方面的专业水平越高,证券化资产出表的概率越高.同时,机制检验结果显示,信贷资产证券化项目与其发起银行使用同一个会计师事务所时,审计师的信息优势促使其充分披露信息,以更好地满足市场参与者对透明度和可信性的需求,进而影响证券化资产的出表处理.本文的研究结论丰富了整合审计对会计处理方面的文献,并为探究会计师事务所在信贷资产证券化中的作用提供了理论基础.
现有关于创新合作网络与城市创新的研究主要聚焦于一国内部的城市间创新合作网络,较少关注国际创新合作网络对城市创新的影响,更鲜有文献将国内创新合作网络与国际创新合作网络放在同一个研究框架下.本文从理论和实证两个层面研究了国内国际创新合作网络对城市创新的影响及其作用机制.研究发现,这两种创新合作网络都能够促进城市创新,但尚未形成互补性的协同效应.异质性分析发现,国内创新合作网络对长三角城市群和珠三角城市群城市创新水平的提升作用更为显著,而国际创新合作网络对珠三角城市群城市创新水平的提升作用更为突出.作用机制研究表明,国内创新合作网络通过技术领域集约边际和技术领域扩展边际两大渠道影响城市创新,而国际创新合作网络主要通过技术领域集约边际影响城市创新.
在全球范围内实现人才集聚,以此带动创新资源集聚,提升创新驱动发展能力,对我国增强经济增长动能具有重要意义.本文利用欧洲专利局全球专利统计数据库(PATSTAT)挖掘了全球发明人才流动数据,对全球发明人才流动网络的空间结构变迁进行分析.研究发现,全球发明人才流动网络的空间结构呈现多极化变迁特征,即少数中心国家(包括美国、德国、中国等)越来越重要,而多数外围国家逐渐边缘化.针对上述典型事实,本文构建了一个内生迁移模型,并基于时间指数随机图模型(TERGM)进行计量检验,发现发明人才流动存在互惠性、路径依赖效应、聚敛效应、传递结构和循环结构等内生机制,这些内生机制推动了全球发明人才流动网络的多极化趋势.此外,地区产业结构差异影响着发明人才的流动选择,是多极化变迁中极点形成的决定性因素.上述研究结论的政策含义是:培育与创新中心国家的双向人才流动渠道,降低研发人员迁移成本,以优势高技术产业为抓手抢占新技术和新产品的高地.
碳减排政策对价格竞争力的影响问题极为重要,但严格将价格竞争力的主要指标——实际有效汇率作为分析对象的研究非常少见,且未能考虑全球价值链对这一问题的深入影响.本文在气候变化研究中首次引入考虑全球价值链因素的实际有效汇率指标,通过构建包含异质性成本传导率的投入产出价格模型对相关测算方法进行改进,据此在使用同一框架计算出世界主要国家(或地区)全行业二氧化碳影子价格的基础上,估算了市场型碳减排政策对实际有效汇率的影响.结果表明,首先,各国边际减排成本的差异较大,我国以34.45美元/吨的价格低于大多数国家(或地区).其次,实施碳减排政策后我国产品价格的上升幅度整体可控,小于样本中多数国家(或地区);我国行业层面,电力、燃气、蒸汽与空调供应等高能耗行业由于单位产出的碳排放较高,碳减排政策对产品价格推升作用显著,产品价格受到的影响最大.再次,通过对价格变动进行分解发现价值链因素对于各国产品价格变动都发挥举足轻重的作用.最后,综合考虑碳减排政策的价格效应与数量效应计算实际有效汇率,其变动情况反映出价格水平受碳减排政策影响较小的中国、印度以及墨西哥等国的价格竞争力有所提升.
近年来,大客户黑天鹅事件频繁发生,使企业经营发展遭受巨大冲击,外界对企业罹患大客户"依赖症"的担忧与 日俱增.在此背景下,本文以文本分析技术为基础,采用2009-2020年沪深A股上市企业数据,对数字化转型如何影响大客户依赖及作用机理进行实证检验,研究发现:(1)数字化转型降低了企业对大客户的依赖;(2)从生产环节、销售环节和定价环节的作用机制上看,企业数字化转型主要通过赋能产品专业化发展、强化渠道建设能力、提升潜在降价空间这三条路径降低对大客户的依赖;(3)异质性检验发现,企业面临的经济不确定性较大、所在地数字经济发展较缓慢,或者是非国有企业时,数字化转型对大客户依赖的治理效应更强;(4)进一步研究发现,企业数字化转型治理大客户依赖并非以牺牲企业利益为代价,而是能持续扩大销售收入.上述结论在经过一系列内生性检验后依然稳健.本文不仅从新的视角推进了大客户依赖的相关研究,而且为更客观地认识和肯定数字化转型对企业高质量发展的推动作用提供了一定经验证据.
近年来,越来越多的国内外高水平经济学期刊提出公开实证代码和数据等资料的要求.《财贸经济》编辑部认为,公开代码和数据等资料对读者学习、理解论文的实证过程有较大帮助,对减少学术造假、净化研究环境也有积极作用.同时,应该看到,公开数据代码等资料也可能带来损害知识产权、增加低水平重复研究等风险.
