The relationship between China and Yugoslavia holds a significant place in the history of international communist movement,and its legacy has a significant impact on China's relations with Yugoslav successor states.However,this impact varies from country to country and exhibits three main types:First,a comprehensive strategic partnership characterized by political mutual trust(Serbia),serves as a vivid example of the positive projection of the China-Yugoslav legacy;second,a relationship primarily based on pragmatic economic cooperation(Croatia,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Montenegro,North Macedonia),reflects more of the pragmatic attitude inherited from the China-Yugoslav legacy;and third,a dual relationship of cooperation and competition(Slovenia),represents a dynamic influenced by a broader security environment,geopolitical factors,and Slovenia's domestic political landscape.The historical legacy of China-Yugoslavia relations,particularly the accumulated experience of interaction between China and these successor states in political,economic,and cultural fields,will continuously play a significant role in shaping the fundamental diplomatic framework and psychological expectations of Yugoslav successor states towards China.
Under the complex time and space changes and the political game of external forces,Moldova has long faced problems such as ethnic identity,national identity positioning,"Transnistria"and Gagauzia regional separatism,and weak national governance capabilities since its independence.Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the economic and social situation of"Transnistria"and Moldova has worsened.The West has significantly increased strategic investment based on Moldova's rising geostrategic status.Ukraine and Romania have also strengthened cooperation with Moldova,prompting the Moldavian government to adopt radical policies,speed up Romanianization and de-Russification,and accelerate the pace of cooperation with the EU and NATO,which makes Moldova's relationship with"Transnistria"and Russia continue to deteriorate,and Moldova has become another"outpost"in the geopolitical game between Russia and the West.Russia,the West,Ukraine,Romania,Moldova and"Transnistria"each have their own interests,and the development directions of Moldova and"Transnistria"are highly uncertain.It is expected that in the short term,with the persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the outbreak of a military conflict among"Transnistria",Moldova and Russia is unlikely,but in the long term,this risk shows an upward trend.
Ukraine has a complex history and culture,and Ukraine's three attempts to gain independence are closely associated with changes in international geopolitics.The geopolitical changes caused by World War Ⅰ,the Russian Revolution in 1917,and the Russian Civil War provided Ukraine with the objective conditions to establish its own country on the ruins of the old empire.However,different interests and demands of various forces in Ukraine resulted in fierce competition,and in the end the Bolsheviks won.Before World War Ⅰ,Ukraine was carved up by the Russian Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.After World War Ⅰ,it belonged to four countries:Soviet Russia obtained most of Ukraine,Poland obtained Galicia and Volyn,which once belonged to Russia.In parts,Czechoslovakia received Carpathian Ruthenia,and Romania received Bessarabia and Bukovina.At that time,countries with interests in Russia and Ukraine also adopted different policies toward Ukraine out of their own interests.Studying the competition among various forces in Ukraine during the Russian Revolution and Civil War is significant to understand the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Given Japan and South Korea resume"shuttle diplomacy",the US intensifies strategic competition with China,and the return of geopolitics accelerates in this region,the tripartite cooperation between the United States,Japan and South Korea,symbolized by the Camp David meeting,shows the features including institutionalization of summit meetings,deepening of defense cooperation,continuous expansion of economic cooperation and the strengthening of ideological connections,which certainly lead to the divided camps,rising arms race,weakened economic and trade cooperation and undermined security norms in the region.However,it must be noted that Japan and South Korea still face huge obstacles to achieve deep reconciliation.There are cognitive differences in the trilateral security cooperation between the US,Japan and South Korea regarding whether the"North Korean nuclear issue"or the"Chinese threat"should be prioritized.The strategic cost of pursuing economic security is testing the cooperation between the three countries.Moreover,the Cold War thinking is not accepted by countries in the region.Recently,the improvement of the China-US relations has had a positive impact on the relations between China,Japan and South Korea.We should view trilateral cooperation between the US,Japan and South Korea rationally,maintain communication and dialogue with them,give full play to the leading role of heads of state meetings,promote people-to-people exchanges,co-build values and norms of peace,stability and mutual respect in Northeast Asia,and promote the construction of a community of shared future in Northeast Asia.
Strengthening exchanges and cooperation with Turkic-speaking countries is one of the important directions of Kazakhstan's current diplomacy.At the beginning of its independence,Kazakhstan President Nazarbayev faced political isolation and economic chaos,and with the support and help of Turkey,he put forward the concept of"integration of Turkic-speaking countries"while exploring an independent development path of Kazakhstan.The essence of this idea is to seek a new development path for Kazakhstan from the perspective of nationalism and pragmatism.The successor President Tokayev further promoted the practice of this"concept",which invovles the fields of culture,economic cooperation,interconnection and intercommunication among Turkic-speaking countries,and concern for global issues.Kazakhstan is also gradually enhancing its sense of mission and responsibility for the work of the Organization of Turkic States.In terms of the relationship between Kazakhstan and Turkey,Kazakhstan has established a highly sensitive and vulnerable interdependence with Turkey through the discourse system of"integration of Turkic-speaking countries".
As the Ukraine crisis becomes protracted and complicated,Russia and North Korea have significantly increased the frequency and scope of strategic interactions and have proposed the goal of building an"all-round"relationship.The driving force for Russia and North Korea to build an"all-round"relationship includes order recognition,strategic alignment,and role positioning.In terms of order recognition,the two countries have similar isolated environments and perceptions of threats to their national security.In terms of strategic alignment,Russia's"eastward and southward"strategic layout intersects with North Korea's anti-hegemony and anti-interference policy.In terms of role positioning,Russia and North Korea have self-positioning as mutual fulcrums,security coordination and mutually embedded needs.Judging from the spillover effects of the"all-round"relationship between Russia and North Korea,more active and comprehensive strategic cooperation between the two countries may intensify the complex nature of the existing security dilemmas in Northeast Asia and strengthen the"Cold War narrative"created by countries outside the region and further increase the complexity of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.It should be noted that the"all-round"relationship between Russia and North Korea faces structural shortcomings such as the fragility of mutually beneficial relationships,the singleness of interest ties,and the path trap of pursuing"triangular linkage",which may bring high uncertainty for its resilience and sustainability.
冷战结束后较长一段时间里,由于缺乏内部条件和外部推力,西巴尔干次区域合作几无进展.在欧盟 1996年开始调整地区政策特别是 2003 年将西巴尔干成员整体纳入扩大进程后,西巴尔干次区域合作机制显著增多.在约 64 个次区域合作机制中,有欧盟主导并促其与欧洲一体化趋同的合作机制,也有欧盟成员国倡导并使其与欧洲一体化协同的合作机制,还有由部分成员自主创设、与欧洲一体化进程不完全同步的合作机制,如开放巴尔干倡议和西巴尔干四方机制.西巴尔干次区域合作深受地区内部问题和外部国际环境的双重影响,欧盟的意愿和能力起到联结作用.换言之,在欧洲乃至全球地缘政治加剧博弈的情形下,西巴尔干次区域合作的形态还会不断演化和分化,其与融入欧洲一体化的关系也将变得更加复杂.
冷战结束以来,中东欧地区涌现出大量的次区域合作组织,它们是欧洲国际政治中的一个新特征,同时催生了国际关系中的小多边主义理论.中东欧地区次区域合作组织的发生发展有明显的阶段性,并展现出四项基本功能.中东欧若干次区域合作组织具有合作内容广泛且开放性等特征,次区域合作成员国可以是不同政权性质的国家,次区域合作组织是否具有制度化机构并非评价次区域合作深度或效率的硬性指标.人们在评价中东欧次区域合作组织的功效方面存在争议,但绝大多数这类型组织在促进中东欧国家加盟入约、推动转轨/转型顺利进行、协助解决"地方性"跨国问题等方面发挥了一定程度的积极作用.中东欧次区域合作(小多边)给欧洲一体化带来更多的是动力,其功能是"拾遗补缺",与欧洲一体化相向而行,因而欧盟对中东欧的次区域合作基本持支持立场.
自 2017 年特朗普政府重返中东欧之后,美西方与俄罗斯利益博弈态势加剧,导致中东欧地缘政治加速动荡.尤其是 2022 年俄乌冲突的爆发,给处在中美博弈新中间地带以及美西方和俄罗斯博弈前沿阵线的中东欧国家带来了前所未有的地缘安全挑战,改变了中东欧绝大多数国家对外战略的优先次序,经济利益全面让位于安全利益成为这些国家制定外交战略的优先事项.这一变化对"中国-中东欧国家合作"产生了难以逆转的冲击,本文根据中东欧国家对华政策趋向的特征,将其分为五大类:对华强硬派、合作与批评并举派、战略模糊派、对华务实派和对华友好派.总之,后乌克兰危机时期的中国-中东欧国家合作除了充分研判大国博弈因素之外,应遵循差异化和精准化的合作对策,应根据当前中东欧国家对华政策定位的不同类型而因国施策,统筹经贸、环保、人文等多个维度,协调中央和地方多层级合作.
中俄扩大经贸合作,物流通道的重要性不言而喻.在欧洲航线两大基本物流通道环境发生巨大变化的情况下,适应中俄经贸合作快速发展趋势和俄罗斯远东开发意愿,中俄合作打造远东物流大通道具有多重意义,应将其定位为中俄战略性合作项目.以符拉迪沃斯托克港口为核心的俄罗斯远东港口群具有形成中俄进出口贸易铁-铁跨境班列物流运输、东北亚海-铁联运国际中转、中国内贸货物跨境运输中转、中俄边境互市商贸货物物流运输等多种物流功能的极大潜力.目前看,中俄远东物流基础设施存在很多问题,经常出现的口岸货物通关拥堵的原因既有中俄双方通关便利化程度不够,也有物流通道基础设施落后.中俄在远东物流通道基础设施合作的重点应放在以下几方面:提高口岸铁路换装效率、口岸地方合作投资改善俄方口岸至符拉迪沃斯托克港口间的公路质量、投资合作开发远东港口、务实推进东北黑吉两省利用符拉迪沃斯托克港口群开展内贸货物跨境运输.
2023 年 3 月出台的《俄罗斯联邦外交政策构想》是指导俄罗斯中长期外交实践的"战略规划文件",其对过去 30 年的战略失误进行系统性修正,彻底放弃融入欧洲,标志着俄历史上第二轮大规模西化的终结.在新构想中,成为未来多极世界的重要一极、打造强大而独特的欧亚文明国家被确立为俄外交运筹的重点方向.新构想具有鲜明的反霸特点和积极防御性质,将全球分为"建设性国家"、"中立国家"和"不友好国家",首次在官方外交文件中使用"盎格鲁-撒克逊国家"概念,并将其与欧洲放在外交排序的最后.新构想试图打造"倚陆向海"陆权板块,并转向东方、面向南方,将发展中国家特别是"近邻国家"和金砖国家作为外交重点,利用法德与"盎格鲁-撒克逊国家"的结构性矛盾拉欧抑美.新构想对华倚重和信任明显加大,将中俄战略合作视为构建世界新秩序的两大世界文明的合作,迫切希望与中国"战略联盟"和深化经济一体化.新构想有利于中俄关系深化,有利于促进南南合作,有利于构建欧亚陆权新秩序,可望对国际格局和国际秩序的演进产生积极影响.
人文合作是中国与中亚国家合作的重要组成部分.中国与中亚国家建交30余年来,人文合作蓬勃发展,对促进双方关系不断深化发挥了重要作用.新冠疫情、阿富汗剧变、乌克兰危机等多重复杂因素造成欧亚地区外部环境发生较大变化,给中国同中亚国家的人文交流带来一定冲击,但双方还是克服诸多困难,完善合作机制,创新交流形式,取得丰硕成果,为新时期双方人文合作的深化奠定了坚实基础.随着"中国+中亚五国"合作机制的确立,中国同中亚国家关系由外长会晤机制升级为元首会晤机制,中国同中亚国家关系进入新时代,人文合作维系以及提升双方友好关系的"纽带"作用更加凸显,将迎来发展的重大契机.中国与中亚国家应抓住机遇,化解挑战,破解"顽疾",共同探索人文合作的新路径,为推动构建中国-中亚国家命运共同体发挥积极作用.
独立以来,贫困成为中亚国家实现可持续发展的主要障碍.中亚国家的贫困问题有典型的地域差别和人群分层特征,并与各国整体经济发展进程密切相关.中亚各国高度重视对贫困问题的治理,将减贫事业视为国家长治久安的基本战略之一.各国针对减贫事业明确了相关国家发展战略,成立了专门的减贫机构或者社会保障部门,将解决就业问题视为现阶段减贫的核心任务,在促进居民增收、增加社会福利和对弱势群体给予充分权益保护方面制定了详尽政策.2020年后,国际社会出现的一系列危机对中亚国家经济和社会形势产生了负面影响,各国减贫目标的实现在世界经济放缓的背景下面临很大困难.对中亚国家来说,发展是减少贫困特别是消除极端贫困的关键,但各国受限于自身条件,发展无法一蹴而就.中亚国家在稳步推进国家发展的基础上,也借鉴了中国的减贫经验,对贫困人口进行精准识别,力求精准施策,有效分配用于减贫的社会资源.
俄乌冲突爆发后,西方对俄罗斯实施"升级版"制裁和遏制,普京政府被迫实行抗西联东对外政策,即抗衡西方、联合东方,以服务于俄实现在乌克兰的军事和政治目标、维护俄国家安全和大国地位.俄罗斯坚决抵制西方经济制裁,在乌克兰和欧洲—大西洋地区同美国和北约进行军事对抗,与西方展开"外交战".普京政府加强同东方国家和东方国际组织的经济与政治合作,为俄罗斯抗衡西方提供经济助力和外交支持,主要举措为:加强与中国的战略协作伙伴关系,发展与印度的特惠战略伙伴关系,维护其在欧亚地区的传统影响,积极参与上海合作组织和金砖国家等东方国际组织框架下的合作等.2023年版《俄罗斯联邦对外政策构想》确认了抗西联东政策,反映出俄要走独特发展道路、放弃"融入欧洲"愿景的战略转变.用安全、发展和文明认同三个标准衡量,俄罗斯抗西联东政策不甚成功.但是鉴于俄乌冲突和俄罗斯与西方对抗长期化等因素,在2024年以后俄抗西联东政策仍将延续.
哈萨克斯坦是中国的重要邻国,是中国在中亚地区最大的经济合作伙伴和丝绸之路经济带上的重要支点国家,中哈已经成为中国与"一带一路"沿线国家合作的典范.30年来,中哈经贸合作经历了三个不同的时期,总体上贸易额显著增长,投资合作持续提质升级,合作模式不断创新,成就斐然,两国在贸易、投资、产能和金融合作等方面创造了诸多个"第一".站在新的黄金30年的起点上,中哈经贸合作既具备国家发展战略对接、机制建设不断丰富和完善、政府间多项协议提供法制保障等良好基础,又面临哈萨克斯坦2022年"一月事件"和乌克兰危机升级影响、大国博弈加剧区域安全环境恶化等巨大挑战.展望未来,由于中哈经贸发展的韧性较强,潜力巨大,进一步深化经贸合作前景广阔.
Purpose – Central to this paper, Western international political economy cannot well explain China’s peaceful development and its political and economic ties with the outside world, and it is even more difficult to reflect the characteristics of the times that the great changes unseen in a century and socialism with Chinese characteristics have entered into a new era, which are synchronously intertwined and mutually agitated. Constructing China’s international political economy not only emphasizes the Chinese perspective, Chinese discourse and Chinese narrative but also examines the development trend and major problems facing the world from the height of world history and applies the position, viewpoints and methods of Marxist historical materialism to observe the times, interpret the times and lead the times. Design/methodology/approach – Looking back at the development of China’s international political economy, from introducing Western international political economy to increasingly emphasizing the Chinese perspective, Chinese discourse and Chinese narrative, we analyze the distinctive features of China’s international political economy from Western international political economy. Findings – The thought of community with a shared future for mankind is the latest development and concentrated embodiment of Marxist thought on world history in the 21st century, which gives China’s international political economy a distinctive epochal, scientific and practical character, stipulates the research stance and fundamental purpose, establishes the research theme and main line and expands the research space for the construction of Chinese international political economy. Originality/value – The construction of China’s international political economy is not only to create a “Chinese school” of international relations but more importantly to construct a discourse and academic system of China’s international political economy that can understand and grasp the changes in the world, the times and history, providing academic support for in-depth thinking and answering the question of “What is wrong with the world? What should we do?” and contributing Chinese wisdom.
乌克兰东正教会起源于君士坦丁堡牧首区的基辅都主教区,随着莫斯科公国的崛起,罗斯东正教的中心转移至莫斯科.俄罗斯民族意识觉醒,促使莫斯科教会逐渐摆脱了对拜占庭君士坦丁堡牧首区的依附.俄罗斯东正教会牧首制建立后,基辅都主教区转由莫斯科牧首区管辖,成为俄罗斯东正教会的教规领土.2014年乌克兰危机后,乌国内教会纷争不断,俄罗斯东正教会在乌影响力逐渐下降.2019年新成立的乌克兰东正教会获得自主教会地位,这导致俄东正教会面临失去乌东正教会的风险,东正教会世界的统一被破坏.乌国内政治力量以及俄、美等国也卷入其中,乌克兰东正教会成了大国博弈与乌国内政治角逐之地.2022年2月,俄罗斯将保护乌克兰境内仍然忠于莫斯科圣统的东正教信徒作为对乌采取特别军事行动的部分理由,乌克兰的宗教纷争进一步加剧.
安全是任何国家生存与发展的必要条件,俄罗斯也不例外.俄罗斯拥有与美国比肩、足以保障自身安全的核武库,庞大的常规军力和强大的战争能力,从军事实力角度其安全能够得到充分保障.与此同时,俄罗斯对安全的理解,对"绝对安全"的追求,安全优先等不仅体现在思想观念层面,更是构成其内外政策文件的基本内涵和内外政策实践的"绝对命令",且具有极强连续性.俄罗斯这种一方面拥有足够安全保障,另一方面对安全无止境追求的现象可谓是一种独特的"安全困境".对于这一现象,可以从俄罗斯国家身份"帝国性"特征与"安全困境"二者之间的关系角度进行解释.俄罗斯国家身份"帝国性"特征与"安全困境"互为前提、相互建构、相互强化.俄罗斯向现代国家的转型则需要十分强大的内生性思想资源以及对政治权力与社会的关系的必要调整.因而这也是我们观察俄罗斯未来发展变化的一个重要视角.
独立30多年来,俄罗斯生物安全问题很多,主要包括"苏联遗留问题"带来的国内生物威胁没有完全消除、生物安全治理投入有限、外部威胁对俄罗斯生物安全影响不断上升、美欧国家提升生物安全级别给俄罗斯带来严重警示以及国际社会协作不足等.进入21世纪以来,普京政府对俄罗斯生物安全进行规范与治理.俄罗斯生物安全立法工作主要体现在三个层面:一是按照传统立法,把化学和生物作为一个安全领域,统一规范;二是生物安全作为国家安全战略的一部分,在2009年、2015年和2021年《俄罗斯联邦国家安全战略》中对生物安全做出规定;三是对生物安全单独立法,于2020年正式公布了《俄罗斯联邦生物安全法》.俄罗斯政府用立法规范生物安全活动,并在实践中完善立法,通过落实法规,提升生物技术的科技水平,加大资金保障和人才培养力度,加强生物安全跟踪和监测,在地区和国际层面积极开展国际合作,努力提高生物安全治理水平.
在中美战略竞争背景下,美国欲以拉帮结派的手段扩大自身势力范围,以此积累遏制中国发展的战略资源,由此导致在国际社会中出现了一个新的"中间地带".之所以称之为新"中间地带",主要是由于中美关系已不同于冷战时期美苏争霸的敌我关系,以及新"中间地带"国家对战略自主性的追求日益高涨等原因.中美战略竞争背景下,大多数新"中间地带"国家普遍传达出不愿选边站队的态度和追求战略自主性、策略灵活性和利益最大化的战略目标.鉴于此,中国可依托新时代国际统一战线来团结更多朋友,在缓解美对华战略竞争压力的同时,推动国际社会在各领域合作取得切实进展,同时为人类命运共同体的构建赋予新动力.
