
AbstractThe phenomenon of land subsidence is one of the most important environmental hazards that have affected many plains of the country today. Jiroft Plain located in Kerman Province is also one of the areas where subsidence effects are evident. In this research, besides analyzing the spatial subsidence of Jiroft Plain and determining the extent and trend of its spread over a period of time, the effective factors in this phenomenon were investigated. For this purpose, the Sentinel-1 radar images related to the years of 2014-2022 were used. The Coherence Pixel Technique (CPT) was utilized to map the affected areas and determine the subsidence rate. The results of this method showed that the subsidence rate in Jiroft Plain had increased from 11 cm in 2014 to 13 cm in 2022. In addition, its area had increased during this period and the expansion trend had moved towards the northern areas of the plain. To analyze the causative factors of this phenomenon, in addition to studying the changes in the groundwater level of the plain and its relationship with subsidence, the roles of faults and soil thickness in creating or intensifying this phenomenon were investigated. The results showed that in addition to the uncontrolled abstraction from the aquifer, the subsidence of Jiroft Plain was affected by Sabzevaran Fault, while subsidence intensity was higher in the areas with higher soil thickness.Keywords: subsidence, groundwater, fault, spatial relationship, Jiroft Plain IntroductionThe phenomenon of subsidence is one of the growing and fundamental problems in most human societies, which often occurs as a result of human activities. Improper use of water in agricultural and industrial sectors due to the increasing population growth has led to adverse quantitative and qualitative effects on water resources. Understanding the spatial extent and measuring the amount of subsidence as accurately as possible can be considered as the first step in studying this phenomenon. Therefore, by recognizing the spatial characteristics and temporal behavior of this phenomenon, it is possible to present and develop a regional model of it as well as practical and basic solutions to reduce the damage associated with it and prevent its future trends. The use of radar interferometry method in recent years as an efficient tool for monitoring displacements caused by various phenomena, such as volcanoes, subsidence, earthquakes, and landslides, etc., has been considered by earth scientists. The advantages of this method compared to the previous one include the possibility of calculating displacements with centimeter-level accuracy, providing continuous and extensive spatial coverage, and having the ability to operate it in any weather conditions. So far, various studies have qualitatively identified the relationship between groundwater level declines and occurrence of subsidence. However, few studies have tested this relationship quantitatively. Jiroft Plain has been facing a serious drought crisis and declining groundwater levels in recent years. In fact, changes in the agricultural pattern, reduced rainfall, and occurrence of continuous droughts have led to unplanned and unprincipled use of groundwater resources and decline of groundwater levels in the catchment area of Jiroft Plain and have provided conditions for the occurrence and expansion of land subsidence. Therefore, subsidence monitoring has been proposed as an efficient method for identifying and displaying the regional situations in terms of the risk of land subsidence by planners and managers and made it possible to plan and implement appropriate prevention programs. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was spatial analysis of Jiroft Plain subsidence and evaluation of the effects of uncontrolled groundwater abstraction on land subsidence and fault development. To this end, 73 Sentinel-1 images related to the period of 2014-2021 were processed by using the CPT technique. The darkest areas were related to agricultural areas, which had the least amounts of coherence since their vegetations had not remained constant over time and caused a temporal correlation in the interfering phase. MethodologyThe first step in the CPT processing was production of differential interferometers. Initially, the images were referenced in pairs and the interferometers were selected from the items that had spatial and temporal baselines of less than 100 and 365 m, respectively. Based on this, 72 mapping overlays were generated. Along with the various interferences, the related coherence maps were generated. Coherence is a good estimator of phase quality and is used in the pixel selection phase. Coherence values range from 0 that shows a completely uncorrelated phase or pure noise to 1 that indicates a coherent or noise-free phase. In the second step, differential interferometers were processed to obtain the deformation time series, which included linear and nonlinear components and DEM error. Not all image pixels are suitable for processing due to lacking correlation. Among the various pixel selection criteria, a coherence-based criterion was used. Therefore, all the pixels that had a mean coherence value of less than 0.6 were discarded. Figure 3 shows the coherence map created by the CPT for Jiroft Plain where the brightest areas showed the most coherent areas, which corresponded to barren lands, mountainous lands and highlands, and residential areas because they showed very little change over time. DiscussionFigure 4 shows the magnitude of the shifts that occurred along the satellite's line of sight as a result of Sentinel-1 data processing from April 12, 2014 to September 21, 2021. The total number of pixels calculated from the Sentinel-1 data set by the CPT technique reached 2571. The calculations revealed a high deformation rate with a maximum speed of up to -13 cm per year for satellite visibility in the central and southern parts of Jiroft Plain from 2014 to 2021. The positive values indicated that the surface was rising. Most of these values were located in the mountains around the plain. Motion may be related to tectonic factors and the isostatic process. In contrast, the negative values indicated subsidence, which was mainly concentrated in the central and southern parts of the plain. As can be seen in Figure 4, the displacements in the direction of satellite view of the points varied from +3 to -13 mm. In addition, the results showed the increasing trend of subsidence over time in Jiroft Plain. From 2014 to 2022, the area affected by subsidence had increased from 530 km2 in 2014 to 580 km2 in 2022, showing an expansion from the southern to the northern areas of the plain. In addition to the extent of the subsidence rate, it had increased from 11 cm in 2014 to 13 cm in 2022. ConclusionIn this study, the subsidence phenomenon of Jiroft Plain was investigated and its relationship with various factors was analyzed. The displacements that had occurred and were then obtained from the CPT technique indicated that the study area had undergone progressive subsidence. The subsidence rate in the southern and southeastern parts of the plain had increased from 11 ear to 13 cm per year over an 8-year period. In addition, during this period, the area affected by this phenomenon had increased from 530 to 580 km2 and had been drawn to the northern parts of the plain over time. Investigation of groundwater level changes in Jiroft Plain and its compliance with the subsidence areas showed that improper abstraction from the aquifer had been an important and key factor in creating this phenomenon. In addition, it is worth noting that the areas with the highest subsidence rate corresponded to the areas with the highest soil thickness. Thus, their impacts on the subsidence were investigated due to the enclosure of Jiroft Plain by faults. The results of this study showed that Sabzevaran Fault had controlled subsidence and affected this phenomenon. Finally, the subsidence of Jiroft Plain could be considered as a result of two factors, one was the uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater and the other one was the activity of faults, which could affect each other. This issue had intensified the subsidence phenomenon.
Extended abstract:Urban Heat Island (UHI) is an important factor for heat change and balance in global studies and is considered as a proxy for climate change. Studying this phenomenon and investigating its mechanism are very important in urban planning. During the last two decades, the great need for earth surface temperature information for environmental studies and land resource management activities has turned earth surface temperature remote sensing into one of the most important scientific issues (Sobrino et al., 2004). In a research, Hay et al. (2018) studied the effect of the topographical factor on LST in mountainous areas. The results of their research showed that there was a high correlation between topography parameters and surface temperature. For the area studied in this research, the relationship between LST and altitude was inversely linear. Tran et al. (2017) used Landsat 5,7,8 in order to determine the relationship between land cover change and land surface temperature of the inner city of Hanoi (plain and flat area). The results revealed that: a) LST depends on the non-linear method of LULC types; b) Foci analysis by using the Getis Ord Gi* statistic allows analysis of LST pattern change over time; c) UHI is affected from both the urban perspective and type of urban development; d) investigation of LST pattern prediction and UHI effect can be done by the proposed model by using nonlinear regression and simulated LULC change scenarios. In a research in a city of China, the harmful effects of land cover and land use changes on the Earth's surface temperature were investigated through vegetation indicators based on three image sensors of TM and ETM+. For this purpose, the researchers obtained the Temperature Vegetation Index (TVX) from the images. Their results showed that land use change is an important factor for increasing the Earth's surface temperature. It also showed high temperature in areas with scattered vegetation and low temperature in areas with dense vegetation. It has been used in the statistical period of 2013-2015 in the city of Isfahan as well. The results of this research showed that there was a sharp thermal gradient due to the presence of Urban Cold Islands (UCI) between the center and suburbs. The largest UCI was identified in Region 6 (Ahmadi et al., 2016).Keywords: Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), spatial statistics, Isfahan City AssumptionsIt seemed that the growth and development of the city had increased the number of heat islands.It seemed that the heat islands had spread from the surroundings towards the city center in the investigated time period. General purposeMeasuring the degree of spatial autocorrelation between land surface temperature and land useSub-goals:Survey of land use in the summer of 2019Spatial survey of thermal penalty in the summer of 2019 Research method:In this research, 6 images obtained from Landsat 8 satellite were used Isfahan city in the summer of 2019. Landsat has two sensors; one is called Operational Land Imager (OLI) for Earth observation and the other is Thermal Infra-Red Sensor (TIRS) thermal observation. These two sensors form 11 bands together. The selected images had the wavelengths of 10.30-11.30 µm, spatial resolution of 100 m, and thermal band of 10. The pictures were taken in the warm season when we had the least amount of cloud cover. To prepare the data, atmospheric and geometric corrections on satellite data were used from the digital height data. Then, the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated by using Google Earth Engine and radiometric corrections were implemented on the data. Results and conclusion:This research paid attention to changes in the spatial autocorrelation pattern of surface temperature and its relationship with land use. For this purpose, hot spot index and nearest neighbor average were used. ArcGIS was used to apply the methods. The results of the nearest neighborhood average index showed that Isfahan had some changes in the spatial correlation of ground surface temperature with a high confidence level and the dispersion was clustered at the 99% confidence level. Based on the patterns of hot spots in Regions 5 and 6, which were located in the south of the region, it played a significant role in the formation and creation of thermal islands with 99% hot clusters. There were areas of negative spatial autocorrelation (99% cold clustering areas) in the center of Isfahan city where Regions 1 and 3 existed due to the presence of water use (33 bridges) and thus, a significant part of Isfahan city lacked a statistically significant pattern. The results showed that the areas with vegetation and water use weakened the heat island effect and the areas, in which the built regions were expanded accelerated the heat island effect. In the planning and development of the city, more attention should be paid to greening the city of Amar. Spatial statistics studies can lead to a suitable and new model for the officials, politicians, and urban planners to use in the future. References- Clark, w.a.v & Hosking, p.l (1986). Statistical Methods for geographers, John Wiley, (32)2, 65-68.- Guo, A.Yang J,Sun W,Xiao X (2020). Impact of urban morphology and landscape characteristics on spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land surface temperature. 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Shengtai Xuebao/Acta Ecologica Sinica, 33(6), 1852-1859.- Zhou, G. Huang, and M. L. Cadenasso,.(2011). Does spatial configuration matter? Understanding the effects of land cover pattern on land surface temperature in urban landscapes, Landscape and Urban Planning.(102), 54-63.- Zhu, CIdemudia C. Fengb W.(2019). Improved logistic regression model for diabetes prediction by integrating PCA and K-means techniques. Informatics in Medicine Unlocked, 17, 100179.- Zullo, F. Fazio, G. ; Romano, B. ; Marucci, A. ; Fiorini, L..(2019). Effects of urban growth spatial pattern (UGSP) on the land surface temperature (LST): A study in the Po Valley (Italy). Science of the Total Environment, 650, 1740-1751. Figures and Tables- Fig. 1: Map of the study area (Source: authors, 1400)- Fig. 2: Steps to examine the changes through Landsat satellite imagery- Fig. 4: Land use map of Isfahan City in 2019 (Source: writers, 2021)- Table 2: Areas of landuse per square kilometer in 2019 (Source: authors, 2021)- Table 3: Minimum, average, and maximum changes of ground surface temperature in land use (Source: authors, 2021)- Fig. 5: Spatial autocorrelation of surface temperature (Source: authors, 2021)- Fig. 6: Clustering of hot and cold spots (Source: authors, 2021)- Fig. 7: Charts of land use share in hot and cold spots (Source: authors, 2021)
AbstractAs a natural hazard, earthquake has always caused destruction and loss of human life throughout history. Proper planning to prevent or reduce the destructive impact of earthquake hazard is of particular importance. In this study, to prevent and decrease the risk of this phenomenon, faults were detected and earthquake risk zoning was done in Rumeshkan County in Lorestan Province. For this purpose, first, the lineaments in the region were detected by using 2013 satellite images from Landsat 8 OLI sensors (row 37 and pass 166) and applying Directional Filters in ENVI software, as well as Lineament Extraction in Geomatica software. Afterwards, by comparing the lines with the constructed band combinations, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and geological map of the study area were investigated, the faults were separated, and their map was prepared in the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). In this study, by using expert judgment method and AHP-Fuzzy, the factors that affected the risk of earthquakes in Rumeshkan County, including distance from fault, slope, geomorphology, lithology, and distance from epicenters of past earthquakes were weighted and the seismic hazard map of the region was prepared. According to the obtained results, 31.8, 34.3, 10.3, 14.6, and 9.0% of the area were in very low, low, medium, high, and very high hazard classes, respectively. Examination of the earthquake hazard sensitivity map showed that the highest sensitivity to seismic hazard was in the eastern parts of the county and that the central parts had very low and low risks; thus, settlement of population in the latter areas is recommended.Keywords: earthquake, Rumeshkan, remote asensing, GIS, AHP-fuzzy IntroductionEarthquakes have always been among the most important natural hazards. Every year, a large number of people in the world are affected by the adverse effects of earthquake. To decrease human and economic losses, as well as their social consequences, it is necessary to gain an accurate knowledge of the risks of earthquakes in different places based on the current knowledge and the latest reliable technologies. Risk zoning is an important approach in the pre-crisis management process that greatly assists planners and managers to take measures to reduce earthquakes earthquake vulnerability. The main issues are the selection of vulnerability criteria and the way of combining them, as well as selecting an appropriate model that can best represent the rate of vulnerability.Today, with the increasing science advancement, satellites and satellite imagery have progressed; therefore, the use of remote sensing methods and satellite image processing appear to be highly efficient for identifying and studying geological phenomena, such as faults and lineaments. GIS is also one of the most powerful software in the field of environmental hazard mapping that contributes to efficient management of spatial and temporal data. MethodologyManual, automatic, and semi-automatic methods are used to extract tha data of lineaments and faults. In this study, a semi-automatic method was used, which is a combination of automatic and manual methods and is more reliable with a good speed. For this purpose, the 2013 Landsat 8 images taken by OLI sensor (row 37 and pass 166) were analyzed.In this study, first the lineaments in this area were extracted by applying Lineament Extraction Filter in Geomatica software. Then, by spatial highlighting and applying directional filters on 8-band images obtained from the Landsat 8 satellite image of OLI sensor, as well as creating band combinations, the faults in the area were manually identified.AHP-fuzzy was used for earthquake hazard zoning in Rumeshkan County. In addition to the fault map of the region, other factors, including slope, geomorphology, lithology, and distance from the epicenters of past earthquakes, were used. The fuzzy hierarchical integrated model has a high efficiency in earthquake risk zoning due to removing the inherent inaccuracy and uncertainty of decision makers' perceptions and reflecting their opinions as a definitive number. After weighting the factors, by combining the maps in the environment of Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the earthquake zoning map of the region was prepared. DiscussionIn this research, after examining the factors affecting the earthquake risk, a map of each of the factors was prepared in the environment of ArcGIS software. The results obtained from the analysis of each factor were as follows:The study of lithology and geomorphology of the region showed that due to the looseness of Quaternary alluvial sediments, this unit had the highest sensitivity to earthquake hazard and the highest weight was assigned to it.Investigation of the area slope according to the expert judgments indicated that the highest sensitivity to earthquake hazard was related to the highest slope degrees, which could be attributed to the low shear strength of materials at high slopes.The results obtained from the study of the faults in the region revealed that sensitivity to earthquakes increased by decreasing distance from the faults because earthquakes themselves were caused by the movement of faults. Also, the sensitivity increased as the distances from the epicenters of past earthquakes decreased.After examining the factors affecting earthquake risk, the map of each factor was fuzzified by using the fuzzy membership functions.For this purpose, to standardize the maps, the slope and lithology maps were respectively obtained through incremental linear and Gaussian membership functions to determine distances from the faults, epicenters of old earthquakes, and geomorphology of the faults.Considering the fact that each layer had a different impact on seismic hazard zoning, weighting of the layers and substrates was necessary. In the hierarchical analysis process, first, a pairwise comparison was done and the results were transferred to the Expert Choice software in order to calculate the weight of each factor. Based on the obtained findings, the fault layer had the most important role in preparing the seismic zoning map of the study area. According to the prepared lineament maps, the faults were mostly concentrated in the eastern parts of Rumeshkan County. ConclusionMost studies concerning fracture and fault modeling in each region depend on analysis of lineaments. In this research, a remote sensing technique (OLI sensor satellite imagery) was used to obtain an integrated digital map of the region's lineaments. The results showed that the use of a semi-automatic method was one of the fastest and most accurate approaches for extracting the maps of faults and fractures.In this study, 5 factors were selected as effective factors in the seismic hazard zoning of Rumeshkan City. Prioritization of the factors by using the hierarchical analysis showed that the factors of distance from fault, distances from epicenters of past earthquakes, lithology, slope, and geomorphology played the most important roles in preparing the seismic hazard map, respectively.According to the results of seismic hazard zoning, >23% of the area was in the high- and very high-risk classes, covering most of the eastern part of the study area. Combination of the residential area map with the earthquake risk zoning map also showed that the residential areas located in the eastern, western, and central parts were in high- and very high-risk classes, low- to medium-risk class, and very low- and low-risk classes, respectively. Chaqabol, the capital of the county, was located at the central part. References- Bimal, N., Yadav, O. P., & Murat, A. (2010). A fuzzy- AHP approach to prioritization of CIS attributes in target planning for automotive product development. Expert System with Application Journal, 37, pp. 6775- 6786.- Fayaz, M., Romshoo, S. A., Rashid, I., & Chandra, R. (2022). Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of the Built Environment in Srinagar City, Kashmir, Himalaya, Using GIS. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, pp. 1-35. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-155- Gannouni, S. and Gabtni, H. (2015). Structural Interpretation of Lineaments by Satellite Image Processing (Landsat TM) in the Region of Zahret Medien (Northern Tunisia). Journal of Geographic Information System, 7, pp. 119-127. doi: 10.4236/jgis.2015.72011- Janardhana Raju, N., Reddy, T. V. K., & Munirathnam, P. (2006). Subsurface dams to harvest rainwater: A case study of the Swarnamukhi River Basin, southern India. Hydrology Journal, 14, pp. 526-531.- Kahraman, C., Cebeci, U., & Ruan, D. (2004). Multiattribute comparison of catering service companies using fuzzy AHP: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Production Economics, 87(2), pp. 171-184.- Pudi, R., Martha, T. R., Roy, P., Vinod, K., & Rao, R. (2021). Mesoscale seismic hazard zonation in the Central Seismic Gap of the Himalaya by GIS-based analysis of ground motion, site, and earthquake-induced effects. Environ Earth Sci., 80, p. 613. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09907-w- Saaty, T. L. (1980). The analytic hierarchy process. McGraw-Hill, New York.- Varo, J., Sekac, T., & Jana, S. K. (2019). Earthquake hazard micro-zonation in Fiji islands: A research of Vitilevu Island. IJRTE, 8, pp. 2296-2307.- Vahidnia, M. H., Alesheikh, A. A., & Alimohammadi, A. (2009). Hospital site selection using fuzzy AHP and its derivatives. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(10), pp. 3048-3056.- Yassaghi, A. (2006). Integration of Landsat Imagery Interpretation and Geomagnetic Data on Verification of Deep-Seated Transverse Fault Lineaments in SE Zagros. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 56(12), pp. 152-167.
AbstractCities manifesting the world's most consuming ecosystem are responsible for a large part of the world's environmental problems. Knowledge of the ecological conditions prevailing in any regions is essential for achieving development. Ecological Footprint Index (EFI) is of great interest for assessing urban communities as a way to measure the levels of sustainability. In this research, the ecological footprint method, which is a quantitative model, was used to analyze the data and measure the sustainability of urban areas. To this goal, an attempt was made to study the EFI and biological capacity of the urban ecosystem of Sari City by using a descriptive-analytical method and relying on library resources. Ecological footprint in the consumption sector, including housing, services, and transportation, was calculated in 4 areas of Sari City. According to the results of data analysis, the ecological footprint of consumption in the mentioned city was equal to 0.94 global hectares and its biological capacity was 0.59 global hectares per person. Comparison of the biological capacity and ecological footprint of this city showed that it had an ecological deficit and was thus ecologically unstable. Among the footprints calculated in the consumption sector, transportation with the ecological footprint of 46.46969 ha had the most ecological footprint. Also, analyses of the ecological footprints in the 4 regions of Sari City showed that Region 1 had a more footprint than other regions, indicating that it followed a higher consumption pattern, but in general, all areas of Sari City were in an ecologically unstable situation according to the research results.Keywords: ecological footprint, sustainable development, urbanization capacity, SariIntroduction:Rapid population growth and consequent expansions of cities, as well as the urbanization process exceeding management and development of urban services, have led to an increasing use of natural resources and energy. The amount of ecological footprint of a society depends on the following factors: population size, average standard of living, average productivity of land ecosystem, efficiency of harvesting, processing, water resources, and use of other resources. By measuring and controlling each of these variables, the effects of resource utilization can be determined, the degree of sustainability of the urban system in relation to the natural ecosystem can be studied, and finally, appropriate policies and strategies can be applied to reduce the effects of ecological footprint and increase urban sustainability. It is important to note that analysis of ecological footprint varies according to the type of community, country, and the amount of technology used in that community. In other words, ecological footprint varies based on the level of development and land use in each country. Generally, the study of ecological footprint shows that the developed countries have a greater impact on natural areas. Methodology:Various social, economic, cultural, political, and environmental aspects, etc. have affected human life. One of the aspects of rapid urban development is increasing urban population and thus increasing use of the ecological resources of cities. The mismatch between the exploitation level of resources and ecological potential of a city has caused urban instability, which needs to be determined by measuring the ecological potential of exploitation so as to increase urban sustainability. In recent decades, there has been a large increase in the population of Sari City, which has caused its ecological instability due to the excessive use of land and ecological resources. Therefore, it is necessary to determine its ecological potential and level of utilization of resources. The present study tried to measure the ecological footprint, consumption, housing, and transportation in Sari City and determine its ecological status and sustainability. Thus, in addition to recognizing the current situation, the future of this city can be predicted and its problems can be solved in terms of each of the mentioned ecological indicators, as well as providing the necessary measures to prevent its possible natural hazards. Discussion:Ecological footprint is a computational tool for measuring population demand on nature. It is mainly used to assess ecological potential, ultimate ecological capacity, and sustainable development. The ecological footprint of a country or region involves the areas of bio-production (land and sea) that will be needed to consolidate current consumptions by using the dominant technology. The Ecological Footprint Index (EFI) includes several special functions in the areas of bio-production, such as land, agriculture, and forestry, both for wood production and carbon sequestration in geospatial pastures and water areas. The key concept for calculating ecological footprint and bioavailability by this index is using the same unit of hectare globally; thus, it is easy to evaluate and compare the studied areas with other areas globally. The ecological footprint method is a prelude to planning and one of the important and essential tools, which helps to achieve sustainability. The results of this research indicated that the ecological footprint of housing in Sari City was 1 hectare worldwide. Of 13980,29 hectares, 2071,55, 3840,81, 1602,64, and 620,66 hectares showed the global ecological footprints of the housing sector in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th regions of Sari City, respectively. Among the 4 districts of the city, District 2 had the highest footprint in the housing sector with an ecological footprint of 3840,81 hectares; in other words, the citizens living in this district needed more lands to meet the needs of their housing sector. The ecological footprint of transportation is estimated with regard to urban areas. It is calculated by the sum of the ecological footprints of the Earth and the energy consumptions, including gasoline, diesel, CNG. Conclusion:Due to the nature of this research, library and field methods were used based on quantitative and qualitative data and information. At first, the ecological footprint indicators were developed for Sari City based on library methods. Then, the field information required for each indicator were collected and analyzed. Finally, the status of each indicator and the general situation of the city were determined in terms of ecological footprint and degree of sustainability. The ecological footprint in the city of Sari was 46969,24 hectares worldwide, of which 13955,3, 10736,77, 10563,51, and 11713,66 hectares were the global footprints of Zones 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Ecological sustainability offers solutions that initially require revision in relation to agriculture, housing, energy, urban design, transportation, economy, family, consumer resources, forestry, deserts, and the core values of our lives. The study of the bodies and functions of cities, urban planning and designing, ecological design, ecological village, ecological city, and other forms of environmental designs are essential for achieving and promoting urban sustainability. According to the results obtained from the roles of the various parameters in the stability of Sari City, the most important issue for promoting this city was achieving sustainable development by preventing the pattern of consumerism and replacing it with productivity, as well as taking advantage of the opportunities with regard to the strengths and weaknesses. References:- Abedi, Z. (2017). From Ecological Footprint to Sustainable City. 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Three-dimensional ecological footprint based on ecosystem service value and their drivers: A case study of Urumqi. Ecological Indicators, Vol. 131, No. 108117.- Lin, D., Hanscom, L., Murthy, A., Galli, A., Evans, M., Neill, E., & Wackernagel, M. (2018). Ecological footprint accounting for countries: Updates and results of the National Footprint Accounts, 2012–2018. Resources, Vol. 7, No. 3, p. 58.- Liu, W., Yan, Y., Wang, D., & Ma, W. (2018). Integrate carbon dynamics models for assessing the impact of land use intervention on carbon sequestration ecosystem service. Ecological Indicators, Vol. 91, pp. 268-277.- Saberifar, R. (2007). Sustainable Urban Development, Peak Noor. Humanities, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 108-115.- Salehi, I. (2007). The Role of Urban Planning Rules and Regulations in Realizing a Good City and Sustainable Urban Development (Case Study: Tehran). Journal of Environmental Studies, 32(40), 51-62.- Tan, F. and Lu, Z. (2016). 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Extend abstractAbstractThe rapid growth of population could have negative consequences for urban life in urban areas and has caused unfavorable development of cities. With expansive growth of cities, their shapes, forms, and structures have been disrupted. The city entrance has an important role, which has changed over time. In the process of changing, the city entrance has got a new form. Its concept can be understood by having a look in its past and structure. The city entrance plays an important role in creating its general image in the human mind. However, it seems that the entrance structures of of today's cities consist of empty buildings and abandoned lands, which not only could not respond to the need for action, but also lack the identity and function of connection between the two different spaces, with the edges unfavorable to the city. The aim of this study was to identify the effective factors in improving the quality of city entrances. In terms of purpose, this research was an applied one with a descriptive cross-sectional method and quantitative data based on nature. Also, it was a survey research in terms of how it was conducted. Based on people's opinions, the results of this study showed that the variables of environment and green space, traffic, and facilities and furniture were more preferred. The integration of general and specialized perception approaches in landscape management processes could contribute to the development of urban landscape. Finally, it can be said that the resulting environment could be better accepted and satisfied by people if their demands are taken into account for designing urban landscapes.Keywords: city Entrances,";"urban landscape";"Saqqez";"environmental quality IntroductionA city is a spatial landscape in which achieving a healthy environment is considered. Human destiny is determined not in the countryside, but in cities. This shows the unrivaled role and importance of cities in the life of human society. Accordingly, the world has rapidly turned into urbanization. Public spaces in cities and their attractions can change human behaviors and play an important role in creating human culture (Muzaffar et al., 2016: 74) Social, economic, cultural, and political developments resulting from the modernization of human life in urban spaces have affected each region and area. The uncontrolled growth of urban population and lack of an appropriate and optimal model of urban growth leading cities towards industrialization have doubled urban problems and challenges. Migration to cities and increasing urban population have fueled these challenges. Currently, 54% of the world's population lives in cities and it is predicted that this figure will reach about 66% by 2050 (Girma et al., 2019: 139). Studies also show that world's population has increased by 423% from 1950 to 2014 (Kim et al., 2017: 82). City entrance is one of its most attractive parts providing one of its most influential memories. It should have a special identity and characteristics in order to be distinguished from other cities. It should also have certain environmental qualities to meet the audience’s needs (Habibi et al., 2019: 5). In terms of function, this space usually faces a disproportionate distribution of actions, activities, and uses, which are very effective in enhancing the environmental quality of field performance. Today, reduction of quality indicators in urban public spaces is one of the problems that cities have faced. Since the city entrance space is one of the urban spaces and is located in the middle of city with its physical development, paying attention to the concept of entrance and environmental quality needs special attention regarding the urban space. Urban spaces are important in human life activities and affect people’s life quality. However, development of urban space management strategies by experts and paying attention to people's perceptions of urban spaces are often overlooked (Dupont et al., 2015: 68). Therefore, in planning and managing public spaces, it is necessary to pay attention to the users’ perceptions of these spaces (Rossetti et al., 2019: 177). Integrating the specialists and non-specialists’ approaches in the landscape management processes can help improve the quality of urban landscapes (Vouligny et al., 2009: 890). Evidence shows that in Iran, the non-specialists’ views in urban spaces, especially about the entrances of cities, have not been paid attention to. Therefore, this study tried to examine the current situation of Saqqez entrances by considering the factors affecting the qualities of the entrance environments of cities from the perspectives of the indigenous people of Saqqez, travelers, and tourists. Materials & MethodsStudy areaSaqqez City is located to the northwest of Sanandaj City (the province center) with a distance of approximately 190 km. It is situated between the north latitudes of 36◦ 13' and 36◦ 16' minutes and east longitudes of 46◦ 14' and 46◦ 17'. It has got a population of 168.359 and been divided into 22 neighborhoods and 8 districts.Fig. 1. Map of the study area. Questionnaire StructureThe first section of the questionnaire contained demographic information. Before answering the questions, the participants were asked to offer their personal socio-demographic information, including marital status, age, education level, monthly income, and city of residence. Another section of the questionnaire dealt with the independent and dependent variables of the research. The questionnaire was designed based on the Likert spectrum with a closed structure. Survey Population and Sample SizeThe statistical population of the present study included the native people of Saqqez, as well as the travelers and tourists, who were present at the city entrances. The respondents were selected from among the clients, who were present at its entrances during the summer of 2019. Also, the residents, employees, travelers, and tourists of this area were randomly selected as the statistical population. Due to the uncertainty of the population size (number of inputs) in this study, the number of sample members was obtained using the Mitra-Langford method. The most relevant formula with a suitable solution was the formula proposed by Mitra and Lankford (1999). This formula significantly prevented errors by reducing the sampling error and increasing the confidence level, while at the same time lowering the non-sampling error. The standard deviation was assumed to be equal to 2.88, resulting in the sampling size of 300 persons:e = √ (P (1-P)/n); P = 50% and e = 2.88% 2.88% = √ (50 %( 1-50%)/n) → n = 300 Discussion of ResultsEvaluation of people's views based on the current situation and factors affecting the qualities of entrance spaces in Saqqez CityThe respondents mostly agreed with the two effective components of the environment and green space (f=247 and 82.4%) and traffic component (f=246 and 82%), respectively. They considered these components as the most important factors in improving the qualities of the entrance environments of cities.The research findings showed that there were different opinions. Most of the respondents (f=136, 45.3%) evaluated the attractiveness and qualities of the entrances of Saqez City to be completely unsatisfactory. Only about 5 percent of respondents assessed the situation to be favorable and completely desirable (f=18.5, 5.5%). The respondents’ general views indicated lack of sufficient utility. This issue highlighted the need for appropriate measures to improve the qualities of the entrances to Saqqez City.People's views on the independent variables based on their demographic characteristics of age and educationIn this section, the Kruskal-Wallis test was used to identify the differences between the factors affecting the quality of the input environment based on the people's views. The respondents’ levels of education and age were arranged in 4 categories in the form of sequential variables. According to the variable of education, the value of the chi-square test for the variable of traffic was 9.637. Also, the value of the variable of environment and green space was 9.310, which was significant at the level of 0.05. According to the variable of age, the value of the chi-square test for the visual variable was equal to 7.904, which was significant at the level of 0.05%. Also, the variable of traffic was 13.99, which was significant at the level of 0.01. Therefore, the results showed a significant difference between the main factors of the research from the perspectives of the people with different education levels and ages.The Mann-Whitney test was used to identify the differences between the factors affecting the quality of the input environment based on the people's views. The respondents’ marital status and residence in a 2-floor apartment were adjusted in the form of sequential variables. Also, according to the variable of marital status, the variable of traffic was significant at the level of 0.01. Therefore, the results showed a significant difference between the main factors of the research from the people's point of view based on the place of residence and marital status. ConclusionsThe descriptive results of data analysis showed that the entrances of Saqqez City were not of good quality in general because most respondents had an unfavorable viewpoint about this component. The physical design inability of the route to create a situation for public monitoring, the existence of abandoned buildings and barren lands, industrial workshops and repair shops, military uses, the existence of vague and defenseless spaces along the route, and the impossibility of active gathering of people were the reasons. The reason for the alienation of space in areas that had the potential to create green spots fueled this phenomenon. In many places, the green space around the entrances was only visual and inaccessible and along this axis, the points that had the potential to provide footpaths for people had been left unattended.Studies have shown that the environment and green space with the highest average are in better conditions compared to other components. The results of this study were consistent with the findings of Mosallanejad and Moztarzadeh (1396) and Nahibi and Sadat Hassan Dokht (1391). In addition to improving the quality of the environment, urban green space has an impact on the quality of life in cities and has a positive and significant relationship with life satisfaction (Maidzadeh and Farrokhian, 1398; Yuan et al., 2018). The study of Khaljani also revealed that the expansion of urban parks and green space at the entrances of Tabriz City was an important factor in increasing the tourists’ length of stay in the city and also attracting tourists by creating welfare facilities, security, and amenities, such as camp, surrounding landscape, recreational facilities, interior space, and proximity to the city, showing a positive relationship (Khaljani, 2014). The variable of traffic is in the second place. The factor of optimal traffic to entrances of cities is one of the effective factors in improving the quality of the environment. Similar studies have shown that traffic signs play an important role in directing traffic flow (Mina et al., 2013). Also, traffic signs are commonly used to regulate, warn, and guide road users. Signs on the streets and roads are a vital element and the widespread understanding of signs and traffic signs has a great impact on traffic safety (Taamneh & Alkheder, 2018; Hou & Lu, 2018). Furniture and facilities are ranked third after traffic with very little difference. The results of this study were consistent with those of Azadkhani and TahmasebiKia (2016) and Basiri and ZeinaliAzim (2017).There is a general consensus that social and demographic characteristics affect people's perceptions and preferences from one perspective, but may differ in population groups with different cultures and social characteristics (Zhou et al., 2018; Jiang and Yuan, 2017). The importance of examining the preferences of different cognitive socio-collective groups over landscape quality indicators has been proven in a number of previous studies. Therefore, in planning and managing public spaces, it is necessary to pay attention to the perception of users of these spaces (Rossetti et al., 2019: 177; Surová & Pinto-Correia, 2016: 35). Landscape management can help improve urban landscape (Vouligny et al., 2009: 890) since its users have some expectations that may lead to incompatibility between space and citizens if not in line with reality (Daniel, 2001: 267). It is clear that recognizing people's desires and preferences is not only an educational challenge, but also vital for policy-making and implementation. It also helps to create more attractive places and promote environmental services (Zheng et al., 2011: 7) so that urban public spaces can be better accepted and satisfied. Consideration:This article was extracted from a thesis entitled “Assessing and Designing the Landscapes of City Entrances (Case Study: Saqqez Entrances)” in Tabriz University.
AbstractThe aim of the current research was to identify the effective factors in the future state of housing planning in Ahvaz metropolis. The research method was applied based on the purpose and descriptive-analytical based on the nature. In this regard, by applying the mutual effects analysis method in Mikmak software, the key factors affecting the housing supply system of Ahvaz City were identified. Finally, the effective factors of the housing supply system in the mentioned city were selected by using the scenario writing method in the software and the scenario wizard was executed. The findings showed that the 7 factors of migration, marginalization, weakening of the value of national currency, low ability to pay loans, increase in land prices, insignificant credit facilities, and lack of an integrated and coordinated management system in the housing sector had the most impacts and key roles in the system. They provided housing in Ahvaz City.Keywords: future research, housing, housing supply, Ahvaz metropolis IntroductionIn recent decades, the cities of Iran have experienced an increasing concentration of population; yet, the weakness of economic management, lack of comprehensive housing planning, and inadequacy of the government's economic infrastructure have caused the problem of housing shortage and inadequate housing supply. The various policies and programs of the government have not led to good results either. The issue of the land market has caused a large part of lands in the capital to be attracted and ultimately, a large number of citizens to be deprived of shelter. Ahvaz metropolis in Khuzestan Province has undergone extensive demographic and spatial changes during the last decade for 3 main reasons: 1) having provincial centrality, 2) becoming a major industrial hub in line with adopting the policy of creating a growth hub, and 3) disrupting the order of the urban network as a result of the 8-year war and destruction of the major partner cities (Abadan and Khorramshahr) in favor of the all-round development of this city. As a result of these factors, the population of this city has had an increase of 120,098 to 1184,788 people during the years of 1956-2016). In the first general census of the country in 2015, Ahvaz had a population of 120,098 people. Therefore, this rapid population growth has caused problems, such as low quality of housing in the city, lack of ownership by a group of citizens, small areas of residential units, etc. Based on this, this research sought to research the future of the housing supply system in Ahvaz metropolis to respond to the current and future needs and solve the existing problems in this city. In this regard, the main goal of the current research was to identify the most important factors influencing the future state of housing planning in Ahvaz metropolis. MethodologyThe main purpose of this research was to identify the most important factors influencing the future state of housing planning in Ahvaz metropolis. Therefore, a descriptive-analytical and survey method was chosen in this research. In the first step, a list of the primary factors that played a role in the housing supply system of Ahvaz City were identified as the research variables by using documentary sources and previous researches, as well as the Delphi questionnaire. The research variables were analyzed based on an expert questionnaire. In the research process, by using the mutual effects analysis method and Micmac software, the influences of the primary factors on each other were evaluated in the form of the expert questionnaire. Finally, by using another questionnaire, the key factors of housing supply in Ahvaz City were selected via the scenario writing method in the Scenario Wizard software. The statistical population of the research included the specialists and experts of the urban area. The size of the studied sample was determined through the theoretical saturation of 30 experts through the snowball sampling method. The validity of the research tool was evaluated by university professors and it was confirmed after fixing the problems and deficiencies. To measure the reliability of the first expert’s questionnaire (analysis of mutual effects) and the second expert’s questionnaire (scenario writing), the questionnaire was completed by 10% of the experts and then, the results obtained from the supervisor could be cited and confirmed. DiscussionThe results showed that 7 key factors played a role in the housing supply system of Ahvaz City. As shown in Figure 3, these factors include migration, marginalization, weakening of the value of national currency, low ability to pay loans, increase in land prices, insignificant credit facilities, and lack of an integrated and coordinated management system in the housing sector. Also, the results revealed that the 3rd scenario was the most optimistic and promising scenario for the housing supply system of Ahvaz City with 5 favorable conditions and a suitable percentage of 42.87%. The 1st and 2nd scenarios were intermediate. The 2nd and 4th scenarios were respectively the most critical scenarios with unfavorable situations for the housing supply system of Ahvaz City. ConclusionHousing is one of the most essential human needs after food and clothing and it is very important for the preservation and survival of the individuals and society. It is related to one of the most basic and sensitive sectors in economic and social development planning. The rapid growth of population in Ahvaz City has caused problems, such as low quality of housing in the city, lack of ownership by a group of citizens, small areas of residential units, inappropriate interference of activities by residing adjacent to the functional zones of the city, especially heavy industries and administrative-service zones, placement of extensive military, industrial, and wasteland uses in the middle of the residential context (one of the main factors of disintegration of the urban structure of this city), existence of the residential formal or informal settlements, like villages outside the legal boundaries and adjacent to the city, which have their own service and infrastructure needs, illegal constructions in the river boundary and encroachment on its bed, etc. In addition, financial and economic inabilities of low-income groups on the one hand and lack of modern planning and appropriate support mechanisms on the other hand have prevented the vulnerable groups from having access to suitable housing. This lack of access has shown itself in various forms of marginalization and ugly urban landscapes and has caused all kinds of social and economic problems. All these clearly reveal the necessity of fundamental change in the planning process from the traditional method based on forecasting trends towards modern planning with a forward-looking approach. Cities need to be planned with a new approach to recognizing the future challenges so as not to be caught off guard in the face of the upcoming challenges and can take control and manage a favorable future condition. References:- Alavi, A., Benari, S., & Samadi, M. (2017). Analysis of quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in the city of Ahvaz and forecasting the required housing until 2021. Geography and Human Relations, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 867-850.- Arvin, M (2014). Survey of urban sprawl with an emphasis on endogenous development (Case study of Ahvaz City). Master's thesis in the field of geography and urban planning, University of Tehran, supervisor: Dr. Ahmad Pourahmad.- Iran Statistics Center (2015-2016).- Sherizadeh, A., Roostayi, Sh., & Hakimi, H. (2018). Identifying the key factors affecting the future status of low-income housing planning in Tabriz metropolis with a future research approach. Urban Research and Planning Quarterly, 10th year, No. 38, pp. 39-49.- Yazdani, M. H., Hasanpour, S., & Hashemi Masoumabad, R. (2018). Spatial analysis of social and physical dimensions of housing in the areas of Ahvaz City: Physical Development Planning. Scientific Research Journal, Year 4, No. 2, Serial 14, pp. 51-66.- Adeoye, D. O. (2016). Challenges of Urban Housing Quality: Insights and Experiences of Akure, Nigeria. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 216, pp. 260-268.- Bharath, H. A. et al. (2018). Modeling urban dynamics in rapidly urbanizing Indian cities. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 21 (3), pp. 201-210. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.08.002- Cobbinah, P. B. and Niminga-Beka, R. (2017). Urbanization in Ghana: Residential land use under siege in Kumasi central cities. 60, Part A, pp. 388-401. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.10.011- Garbawaziri. A. and Roosli, R. (2013). Housing Policies and Programs in Nigeria: A Review of the Concept and Implementation. Business Management Dynamics.- Lamé, G., Jouini, O., & Cardinal, J. (2019). Methods and contexts: Challenges of planning with scenarios in a hospital’s division. Futures, Vol. 105, pp. 78-90.- Malpass, P. and Victory, C. (2010). The Modernization of Social Housing in England. International Journal of Housing Policy, 10 (1), pp. 3-18. DOI: 10.1080/14616710903565647- McClure, K. (2019). What should be the future of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program? Housing Policy Debate, 29 (1), pp. 65-81.- Miller, J. D. and Hutchins, M. (2017). The impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban flooding and urban water quality: A review of the evidence concerning the United Kingdom. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 12, pp. 345-362. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.06.006- Moulaert, F. (Editor) et al. (2014). The International Handbook on Social Innovation: Collective Action, Social Learning, and Transdisciplinary Research. Cheltenham: UK Edward Elgar.- OCED (2015). How’s Life? Measuring Well-Being. DOI: http: //dx.doi.org/10.1787/how_life-2015-en- Pawson, H., Milligan, V., & Yates, J. (2020). Financing and Governing Affordable Rental Housing. In Housing Policy in Australia, Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, pp. 259-298.- Pons, A. and Rullan, O. (2014). The expansion of urbanization in the Balearic Islands (1956-2006). Journal of Marine and Island Cultures, 3 (2), pp. 78-88. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.imic.2014.11.004- Rowland, N. and Spaniol, M. (2017). Social foundation of scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 124, pp. 6-15.- Schwarts, A. F. (2014). Housing Policy in the United States.- Short, J. R. (2014). Urban theory: A critical assessment. Palgrave Macmillan.- UNDESA/PD (2012). World urbanization prospects: The 2011 revision. New York: United Nations.- Zedlewski, S. R. and Waller, M. (2002). The Importance of Housing Benefits to Welfare Success. Center on Urban & Metropolitan Policy and the Urban Institute.- Zhang, M. and Rasiah, R. (2016). Localization of state policy: Shandong's experience in financing Cheap Rental Housing in urban China. Habitat International, 56, pp. 1-10. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.04.003 Figures and Tables- Table 1: Housing provision policies in Iran at different times- Table 1: Population of Ahvaz City during the years of 1956-2016- Fig. 1: Location of the study area (Vice President of Planning and Development of Human Capital of Ahvaz Municipality, 2022)- Table 3: Factors and components affecting the housing supply system of Ahvaz City- Table 4: Descriptive statistics of the respondents' status- Table 5: The direct and indirect effects of the factors on each other- Fig. 2: The distribution diagram of the variables in the impact-affectability axis based on the direct effects- Fig. 3: Factors affecting the housing supply system of Ahvaz City- Table 6: Key factors, situation, and possible assumptions facing the system- Table 7: Status of each of the key factors according to the compatible scenarios- Table 8: Coefficients, number, and percentage of each of the scenarios based on the 3 spectra
AbstractIdentifying homogeneous climatic zones plays an important role in the success of regional development programs. The climate system is composed of various elements, factors, and variables that together form the climatic components of a region. Multi-characteristic and multivariate methods can combine and overlap the types of elements and variables effective in constructing the climate with appropriate weights in the climatic zoning area. In the present study, climatic zoning of the Caspian region was performed using factor analysis and cluster analysis. For this purpose, a 30*30 matrix consisting of 30 meteorological stations and 30 climatic and environmental variables was formed. The results of factor analysis showed that the climate of the region is affected by 5 factors including precipitation-humidity, temperature, wind, sunlight, and environmental factors. These factors explained a total of 92.5% of the variance of the data. Then, cluster analysis was performed by the hierarchical integration method of Ward on the five mentioned factors. The results showed four climatic zones including humid, semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid in the study area.Keywords: Climate Zoning, Factor Analysis, Multivariate Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Caspian Coastline, Iran. IntroductionKnowledge of climatic zones has long attracted the attention of many scientists and has led to the presentation of various methods of climatic classification such as De Marten, Koppen, Ivanov, Amberje, Selianinov, Hansen, and others. With significant computer advances in recent years, it has become possible to perform internal methods on large volumes of data and the use of new classification methods such as multivariate statistical methods (factor analysis and cluster analysis) have expanded to classify the interactions of a large number of climatic components. Identifying homogeneous climatic zones and the capabilities and limitations of the agricultural climate of each climatic zone can play an effective role in carrying out projects and planning. MethodologyThe study area in this research is the greenest and rainiest region of the country (i.e. the southern shores of the Caspian Sea). In this study, factor analysis with Varimax rotation has been used to identify the factors affecting the climate of the study area and the hierarchical clustering method has been used in its climatic zoning. For this purpose, out of 30 variables affecting agricultural activities, including three environmental variables of latitude, altitude, and distance from the sea, as well as 27 climatic variables including maximum, minimum, and average temperature, an average temperature of winter, spring, summer, and autumn were used. Number of days with a maximum temperature of 30 ° C and above and minimum temperature of 0 ° C and below, average sunny hours, number of full cloudy, partly cloudy, and sunny days, hours of radiation, average relative humidity and annual rainfall, average winter, spring, summer and autumn, total annual rainfall with more than 1 mm, number of days more than 1 mm, more than 5 mm, more than 10 mm and more than 20 mm, average evapotranspiration and average wind speed in 30 stations, and the synoptic meteorology of the region with a suitable statistical period between 2002 to 2018 were used on a daily time scale. ETO Calculator software and radiation amount were used using the Angstrom-Prescott function to calculate the reference evapotranspiration. DiscussionThe results of the Bartlett test showed that the data are suitable for factor analysis and the results can be generalized to the statistical population. The results also showed that the region's climate is the result of the interaction of 5 different factors and explains 92.5% of the total variance. Based on the results of factor scores of variables, variables of average annual rainfall, winter, spring, summer, and autumn, total annual rainfall on days with more than 1 mm, number of days with more than 1 and 5 mm and with heavy rainfall of more than 10 and 20 mm, the number of full and partly cloudy days and average relative humidity had the highest correlation coefficient with the first factor. Due to the fact that the naming of the factors is based on the highest values of correlation coefficients, it was named the precipitation-moisture factor. In the second factor, the variables of average minimum, maximum and average daily temperatures, average temperatures of winter, spring, summer, and autumn, and the number of days with a maximum temperature of 30 ° C and above had the highest factor load and weight. Therefore, the second factor was named the temperature factor. The third factor explains 6.5% of the total variance of the data and was named the wind factor, as the mean variable of wind speed had the highest correlation coefficient with this factor. The fourth factor explains only 5.8% of the variance of the data changes. Because the variable number of sunny days had the highest correlation coefficient with this factor, it was named the factor of sunshine. The fifth factor explains only 5.5% of the variance of the data changes. Because the variables of distance from the sea and latitude had the highest factor and weight in this factor, it was named an environmental factor.After performing factor analysis and identifying the main factors using the hierarchical clustering method by the Ward method, the studied stations are grouped into homogeneous categories and zones and climatic classification was performed. According to the cluster tree diagram obtained and the cutting location of the diagram at the interval of 8, 4 clusters were identified. According to the findings, four climatic zones including a humid climate zone located in the northern parts of Gilan province to the western and central plains of Mazandaran province, a semi-humid climate zone including the eastern and central parts of Mazandaran province to parts of the western and southern regions of Gilan province and western parts of Golestan province, semi-arid climate zone located in the southern parts of the southern shores of the Caspian Sea, and arid climate zone located in the eastern and northeastern parts of Golestan province for the region were identified. ConclusionThe output of this study was four climatic clusters for the study area, which is different from the study of Nazmafar and Goldoust (2015) who in their research on the zoning of the north and northwest of the country, identified three climatic zones for the northern region. In their study, the first climate zone with the effect of precipitation factor was located in the southwest of the Caspian Sea and the second climate zone with the effect of temperature factor was located in a part of the southern shores of the Caspian Sea and the northern slopes of Alborz Mountain range. Therefore, the present study has provided more specific and accurate climatic zones. The findings of this study are consistent with the findings of Montazeri and Bai (2012). They showed in their research that Mazandaran province was located in two humid and semi-cold climates with low rainfall, Gilan province was located in two humid and semi-humid regions, and Golestan province was located in the climate zones of humid, semi-humid, cold, low rainfall, semi-cold, and low rainfall. Also, the findings of this study were consistent with the findings of Fallah Ghaleri et al. (2015) in the field of climatic zoning in Gilan province. References- Biabiany, E., Bernard, D., Page, V., & Paugam-Moisy, H. (2020). Design of an expert distance metric for climate clustering: The case of rainfall in the Lesser Antilles. Journal of Computers and Geosciences, 145, 1-15.- Carvalho, M., Melo-Gonçalves, P., Teixeira, J., & Rocha, T. (2016). Regionalization of Europe based on a K-Means Cluster Analysis of the climate change of temperatures and precipitation. Journal of Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 94, 22-28.- Schmidt, G. (2019). The Ecological relevance of parameter choice in describing climate. The Ecological relevance of parameter choice in describing climate, 6, 1-26.- Tapiador, F., Moreno, R., & Navarro, A. (2019). Consensus in climate classifications for present climate and global warming scenarios. Journal of Atmospheric Research, 216, 26-36.- Yang, L., Bai, L., Song, B., & Liu, N. (2020). A new approach to develop a climate classification for building energy efficiency addressing Chinese climate characteristics. Energy, 195, 1-14.- Zhao, J., Xia, B., Han, J., & Liang, K. (2020). Technological adaption zone of passive evaporative cooling of China, based on clustering analysis. Journal of Sustainable Cities and Society, 66, 1-10.
IntroductionAmong natural disasters, earthquakes are one of the most important natural disasters that pose a threat to the development of the society. Each year, it causes various physical, social, and economic damage around the world. The consequences of an earthquake, both in terms of recurrence and in terms of the damage it causes, affect society. Because, on the one hand, earthquakes contribute to the lack of security for residents at risk, and on the other hand, they reduce the risk of achieving sustainable development. Therefore, earthquakes, both psychologically and financially, due to the speed of occurrence and the volume of destruction, have devastating effects and are at the forefront of natural disasters. Until the 1980s, the dominant approach to crisis management worldwide was based on reducing vulnerability, but since the 1980s, efforts have been made to change the prevailing crisis management paradigm. Thus, the prevailing view has shifted from focusing solely on reducing vulnerability to increasing disability resilience. In this new paradigm, the shift from reactivity to deterrence and participation has changed. Meanwhile, analyzing the interaction of earthquake resilience variables to identify key factors is one of the issues that should be considered in any society. It is noteworthy that the type of attitude towards the issue of resilience and how it is analyzed, on the one hand, plays a key role in how resilience recognizes the current situation and its causes, and on the other hand, affects policies and measures to reduce risk and how to deal with it. Therefore, analyzing the interaction of resilience variables against earthquakes and reducing their effects according to the results will be of great importance.Keywords: Resilience, Interaction, New Urban Habitations, Earthquake Risk, Isfahan Urban Area.MethodologyDue to the studied components and the nature of the subject, the approach of this research is descriptive-analytical. The interaction analysis method was used to analyze the data. Interaction/structural interaction analysis is a method for analyzing the possible occurrence of an issue in a predicted set. The probabilities of this can be adjusted by judgments about the potential for interaction between the predicted subjects. In this study, using 86 variables in the form of 6 indicators, the interaction of the studied resilience variables in the new urban Habitations of the Isfahan metropolitan was analyzed using MIC Mac software. DiscussionPreliminary analysis of the matrix data indicates that there are a total of 3496 relationships for the matrix. Also, the degree of saturation of the matrix is %63.29, which indicates that the selected factors have a relatively large and scattered effect on each other, and in fact, the system has been in an unstable state. Out of 4791 evaluable relations in this matrix, 2778 relations have zero numbers, which means that the factors have not affected or have not affected each other. Also, the studied matrix was %100 desirable and optimized based on statistical indices with two data rotations. The results of direct matrix data analysis have shown that the variables of geographical confinement diversity, level of awareness about seismicity of the habitation, and population density with scores of 159, 158, and 146, respectively. As the most important influential variables of the severity of the damage, compensation capacity proximity to hazardous areas with 191, 162, and 157 points, respectively, have been identified as the most important variables. In a cross-matrix, the sum of the row numbers of each factor indicates the degree of influence, and the sum of its columns indicates the degree of influence of that factor on other factors. Also, the results of indirect matrix data analysis have shown that the variables of geographical environment diversity, level of knowledge about seismicity in the region, and population density with scores of 1312373, 1272025, and 1200271, respectively, were the most important indirect variables. Severity, damage capacity and compensation capacity, and community-based risk management with scores of 15372702, 1298828, and 1298341, respectively, have been identified as the most important indirectly affected variables. What can be understood from the scattering plane of the variables affecting the resilience of new urban Habitations in the Isfahan metropolitan, the concentration of most variables around the diagonal axis, which indicates the instability of the system under study? ConclusionIn this study, using Mick Mac software, the effective variables on resilience forecasting of new urban Habitations in the Isfahan urban area have been investigated. The results of direct matrix data analysis have shown that the variables of geographical confinement diversity, level of awareness about seismicity of habitat, and population density were the most important influential variables. Severity, compensation capacity, and proximity were the most important risk areas. The analysis of indirect matrix data has also shown that the variables of geographical environment diversity, level of knowledge about seismicity of the region, and population density were the most important indirect variables. The variables of the severity of the damage, and compensation capacity were the most important indirectly affected risk-based risk management variables. EReferences- Ahmad Pour, A., Abdali, Y., Sadeghi, A., & AllahGholi Pour, S. (2018). Analysis of resilience components in the central tissue of Hamedan using Moran spatial autocorrelation. Quarterly Journal of Physical Development Planning, 5(1), 93-106.- Aksha, S. K., & Emrich, C. T. (2020). Benchmarking community disaster resilience in Nepal. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(6), 1-22.- Delavar, M. R., Sadrykia, M., & Zare, M. (2017). A GIS-based fuzzy decision making model for seismic vulnerability assessment in areas with incomplete data. International Journal of Geo-Information, 6(4), 119.- Febriyanti, F., Martini, S., Hidajah, A. C., & Dwirahmadi, F. (2021). A study on community economic resilience in response to earthquakes in Jailolo sub–district, North Maluku. 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AbstractHydraulic modelling of floods plays an important role in flood management and the related risk reduction. The case study in this research was a 20-km reach of the Atrak River in the upstream of Maraveh Tappeh City, which is one of the most hazardous regions of Iran from flood viewpoint. The aim of this research was to estimate the accuracy of the TanDEM-X digital elevation model with a resolution of 12 meters in simulating flood hydraulic characteristics. To achieve this aim, the HEC-RAS 2D model was used in steady conditions to simulate floods with a return period of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. The results indicated that the inundation area varied in the range of 4.40 km2(return period of 5 years) and5.93 km2 (return period of 200 years). In the return period of 200 years, the mean flow depth and velocity increased by 67.9 and 49.5% compared to the return period of 5 years, respectively. The sensitivity test also indicated that the maximum sensitivities of the inundation area, mean flow depth, and mean flow velocity to Manning’s coefficient were4.65, 4.84, and -12.23%, respectively. The validation results of the HEC-RAS 2D model by using the inundation area extracted from Landsat-8 OLI satellite images for a return period of 10 years showed that the fit percentage indicator was 86%. The results of this study indicated an initial effort for hydraulic modelling of flood characteristics with the TDX elevation digital model.Keywords:HEC-RAS 2D model, Frequency analysis, Hydraulic modelling, Landsat-8 satellite images IntroductionFloods are among the most common and destructive natural disasters worldwide, imposing various adverse effects in different countries (Bui et al., 2018). These include fatalities, damage to infrastructures, people displacement, and environmental damages (Rahmati et al., 2020). Over the last decade, floods have affected millions of people worldwide and caused a damage of more than US$ 400 billion (Aerts, 2020). In Asia, more than 90% of human casualties resulting from natural disasters stem from flood events (Smith, 2003). Among several countries in Asia, Iran faces destructive floods each year due to its vast extent and heavy precipitations in most basins (Jahangir et al., 2019). Over the past 60 years, more than 3,700 flood events have been reported in Iran, while during the last decade, the damage caused by flooding has increased by 250% (Norouzi and Taslimi, 2012). Iran has recently experienced immense floods because of poor watershed management and climate change (Pouyan et al., 2021). In 2019, flooding events affected 25 out of 31 provinces, resulting in more than 77 human casualties and damage of US$ 2.2 billion (Khosravi et al., 2018). Even though we do not have an accurate answer to how climate change may impact flooding events, such as the ones that occurred in 2019(Sherpa and Shirzaei, 2021), a recent study has suggested that Iran will probably experience a higher frequency of floods in the future (Vaghefi et al., 2019). In addition, the growth of urbanization and increasing deforestation will make the condition worse (Arabameri et al., 2019). MethodologyIn the current study, the long-term (1977-2017) data of maximum discharge in the hydrometric station of Qazanqaya were used for the frequency analysis of Flood Peak Discharge (FPD). The stationarity in the time series of annual maximum peak discharge was checked before fitting the distribution. For computing FPD in the various return periods for the hydrometric station of Qazanqaya, the annual maximum discharge records were fitted via EasyFit software. Three goodness-of-fit criteria, including Anderson-Darling, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Chi-square, were adopted to select the best-fitted distribution. Finally, flood discharges with 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- 100-, and 200-yr return periods were estimated for the hydrometric station based on the corresponding best-fitted distribution. This study simulated 2D steady flow in a return period of 5-200 years using HEC-RAS 5.0 software (U.S. Army Corps of Engineering, 2016). Due to the complex numerical schemes, 2D diffusive wave equations could provide greater stability and faster calculation times (Li et al., 2020) and were thus used in this study to simulate 2D steady flows in a return period of 5 to 200 years. The peak flow discharges in the return periods of 5-200 years estimated from frequency analysis in the hydrometric station of Qazanqaya were considered as the upstream boundary conditions in the hydraulic model. Furthermore, the downstream boundary conditions were considered as normal depth conditions obtained based on the energy slope. Manning’s roughness coefficients of the main channel and floodplain were estimated based on the land cover mapand USGS method (Arcement and Schneider, 1989). In the previous studies, modification of Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) has been successfully done to map the flooding areas (Li et al., 2018). Hence, based on the date of the flood events, which were recorded in the hydrometric station of Qazanqaya, the flooded area was extracted from Landsat-8 OLI images. On the other hand, the fit percentage indicator proved to be useful for the validation of flood inundation models (Khojeh et al., 2022). A value of closer to 100% could denote a better agreement in flood extent modeling by TDX Digital Elevation Model. DiscussionThe results of hydraulic modelling indicated that the inundation area varied in the range of 4.40 square kilometers (return period of 5 years) and5.93 square kilometers (return period of 200 years). On the other hand, in the return period of 200 years, the mean flow depth and velocity increased by 67.9 and 49.5% compared to the return period of 5 years, respectively. The validation results of the HEC-RAS 2D model by using the inundation area extracted from Landsat-8 OLI satellite images for a 10-yr return period indicated that the fit percentage indicator was 86%, indicating a high agreement of flood modeling results based onthe TDX digital elevation model. ConclusionThe results of the frequency analysis and estimation of flood peak discharges with a return period of 5 to 200 years in the Atrak River Basin showed that this basin with peak discharges between 487.8 m3/s (5-year flood) and 1605.6 m3/s (200-year flood) could be considered as one of the most dangerous basins in Iran, which could cause a lot of human and financial losses, especially for floods with a high return period. Although HEC-RAS 2D modeling based on the TDX digital elevation model with a resolution of 12 m indicated that this digital elevation model with an accuracy of 86% (14% error) was probably better than digital elevation models, such as SRTM, ASTER, and ALOS, with a resolution of 30 m , its validation for other flood-prone areas of Iran was necessary. References- Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2020). Integrating agent-based approaches with flood risk models: A review and perspective. 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Comparison of TanDEM-X DEM with LiDAR data for accuracy assessment in a coastal urban area. Remote Sensing, 11(7), 876.- Zhang, K., Gann, D., Ross, M., Robertson, Q., Sarmiento, J., Santana, S., & Fritz, C. (2019b). Accuracy assessment of ASTER, SRTM, ALOS, and TDX DEMs for Hispaniola and implications for mapping vulnerability to coastal flooding. Remote Sensing of Environment, 225, 290-306.
AbstractSearching in family roots and traveling to discover genealogy with a leisure motivation is called tourism, which can not only create opportunities to introduce and preserve family heritage, but also diversify the tourism market. The present study pursued the following 3 objectives: 1) identification of the potentials of Isfahan City for promoting ancestral tourism, 2) introduction of suitable travel packages of ancestral tourism in Isfahan Province, and 3) identification of appropriate strategies for promoting ancestral tourism. This research was of an exploratory type with qualitative method associated with thematic analysis. The statistical population of the study consisted of the experts in the fields of history, tourism, and culture. The findings of this research illustrated that Isfahan City had the potential of promoting ancestral tourism due to the presence of famous families, who had migrated to this city throughout history, families, who were known for their professions, royal families, neighborhoods called other cities in Isfahan;, and immigrants and refugees throughout the history, as well as different past divisions of the country. In addition, the incoming and outgoing travelers and city tour packages could be introduced as the revenue-generating opportunities in the ancestral tourism sector in this province. Lastly, the 4 strategies of market penetration, product development, horizontal integration, and collaboration could be introduced as suitable strategies for the prosperity of ancestral tourism in Isfahan City.Keywords: ancestral tourism, Isfahan, genealogical tourism, roots tourism IntroductionNowadays, searching in family roots, as well as traveling and discovering genealogy with a leisure motivation is one of the aspects of tourism that can not only create opportunities to introduce and preserve family heritage, but also diversify the tourism market. Ancestral tourism has been proposed as one of the rapidly growing segments of the heritage tourism market (Basu, 2004; Santos and Yan, 2010), which was not noticed by academics in 2005 and was just introduced under the umbrella of cultural heritage tourism. The existing research literature demonstrate that the genealogical tourists are not a homogeneous group whose activities have been described by presenting a set of terms. Ancestral tourism is variously classified into genealogical tourism, heritage tourism, diaspora tourism, cultural tourism, and roots tourism (McCain and Ray, 2003, pp. 713-17; Timothy and Teye, 2004; Basu, 2004; Gaudry, 2007).It is noteworthy that Isfahan Province has been invaded by many foreigners throughout history and many ethnic groups, such as Georgians, Armenians, etc. have immigrated to Isfahan. In addition, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province and Yazd Province have been parts of Isfahan. Historical evidence has demonstrated that Isfahan has a great potential to organize ancestral tours. Therefore, the current research sought to identify suitable travel packages for the development of ancestral tourism in Isfahan Province and identify suitable solutions and strategies for the development of this new niche market of tourism from the experts’ points of view. Methodology The present study pursued the following 3 objectives: 1) identifying the potentials of Isfahan City for promoting ancestral tourism, 2) introducing suitable travel packages of ancestral tourism in Isfahan Province, and 3) identifying appropriate strategies for promoting ancestral tourism. This research was of an exploratory type with a qualitative method based on thematic analysis. MAXQDA software was used as a tool for data analysis. The statistical population of the study included the experts in the fields of history, tourism, and culture. The data were gathered through snowball sampling or chain-referral sampling as a non-probability sampling technique. After each interview, the data were coded until the codes reached a saturation point in the 16th interview and no new codes were added to the previous codes. Results and discussionThe research findings indicated that Isfahan had the potential of promoting ancestral tourism due to the presence of famous families, who had migrated to this city throughout history, families, who were known for their professions, royal families, neighborhoods called other cities in Isfahan, and immigrants and refugees throughout the history, as well as different past divisions of the country. In addition, the incoming and outgoing people and city tour packages could be introduced as the revenue-generating opportunities in the ancestral tourism sector in this province. Lastly, the 4 strategies of market penetration, product development, horizontal integration, and collaboration could be introduced as suitable strategies for the prosperity of ancestral tourism in Isfahan. ConclusionAncestral tourism is a journey that is done with the motivation of discovering and searching family genealogies. The results of our data analysis indicated that famous families, such as Kazeruni, Homayi, Sheikh Baha'i, etc., who had migrated to this city throughout history live in Isfahan City. In addition, being the capital of Iran, especially during the Safavid dynasty, and the 34-year rule of Mass'oud Mirza Zell-e Soltan, the first son of Naser al-Din Shah Qajar, had made this city suitable for ancestral tours. There were also families in Isfahan, who were famous for their professions. Moreover, there existed some neighborhoods in Isfahan called other cities. The presence of immigrants and refugees throughout the history and different past divisions of the country were the other potentials that attracted visitors and genealogical tourists to Isfahan.The second purpose of the present study was to identify travel packages with the subject of genealogy. The results of data analysis using a qualitative method based on thematic analysis demonstrated that the design of packages for visits to this city and province with the subject of genealogy, including itinerary designs for the incoming and outgoing tourists, especially for Armenians, Georgians, and Iraqis, would not only help diversify the tourism market of the province, but also be a source of income for travel agencies and tour guides. It is worth mentioning most of the researches in the field of ancestral tourism (Pelliccia et al., 2018; Murdy et al., 2018) emphasized on incoming travel packages, while the city of Isfahan and Isfahan province had the potential of outgoing packages and city tours as well.The third goal of the current research was to identify appropriate strategies for the prosperity of ancestral tourism in Isfahan City. Ultimately, the 4 strategies of market penetration, product development, horizontal integration, and collaboration were introduced as suitable strategies for the prosperity of ancestral tourism in this city. Birtwistle (2005) also emphasized marketing strategy for ancestral tourism boom, which was confirmed by the results of this investigation. References- Agoes, A. and Par, M. M. (2016, May). Tourism Management in Cikondang Ancestral Hamlet. In Asia Tourism Forum 2016-the 12th Biennial Conference of Hospitality and Tourism Industry in Asia (pp. 78-84, Atlantis Press.- Alexander, M., Bryce, D., & Murdy, S. (2017). Delivering the past: Providing personalized ancestral tourism experiences. Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), 543-555.- Basu, P. (2004). My own island home: The Orkney homecoming. Journal of Material Culture, 9(1), 27-42.- Basu, P. (2005). “Roots Tourism as Return Movement: Semantics and the Scottish Diaspora.” In Emigrant Homecomings: The Return Movement of Emigrants 1600-2000, edited by M. Harper, 131-50, Manchester: Manchester University Press.- Basu, P. (2007). Highland homecomings: Genealogy and heritage tourism in the Scottish diaspora., London: Routledge.- Birtwistle, M. (2005). Genealogy tourism: The Scottish market opportunities. In M. Novelli (Ed.), Niche tourism: Contemporary issues, trends, and cases (pp. 59-72). Oxford: Elsevier.- Coles, T. E. and Timothy, D. J. (Eds.) (2004). Tourism, diasporas, and space London: Routledge. Fowler, S. (2003). Ancestral tourism. Insights, 2003, D31-D36- Fowler, H. W. and Fowler, F. G. (1974). The concise Oxford dictionary of current English. Oxford: Oxford University Press.- Gaudry, L. (2007). What Clan Are You? An Exploration of Heritage and Ancestral Tourism with Canadian Scottish Descendents (Master's thesis, University of Waterloo), Ontario, Canada.- Garrod, B. and Fyall, A. (2000). Managing heritage tourism. Annals of tourism research, 27(3), 682-708.- Gergelyova, M. (2007). An investigation of the potential of genealogy tourism as a catalyst for regional development in County Galway. Unpublished thesis (Master of Arts in Heritage Studies), Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology. Galway, Ireland. http://hdl.handle.net/10759/314245- Harraway, D.J. (1997), Modest Witness. London: Routledge- Higginbotham, G. (2012). Seeking roots and tracing lineages: Constructing a framework of reference for roots and genealogical tourism. Journal of Heritage Tourism, 7(3), 189-203.- Hjorthén, A. (2021). Old World Homecomings: Campaigns of Ancestral Tourism and Cultural Diplomacy (1945–66). Journal of Contemporary History, 56(4), 1147-1170.- Luke, C. (2013). Cultural sovereignty in the Balkans and Turkey: The politics of preservation and rehabilitation. Journal of Social Archaeology, 13(3), 350-370.- McCain, G. and Ray, N. M. (2003). Legacy tourism: The search for personal meaning in heritage travel. Tourism Management, 24(6), 713-717.- Maruyama, N. U., Weber, I., & Stronza, A. L. (2010). Negotiating identity. Experiences of Tourism Culture & Communication, 10(1), 1-14.- Murdy, S., Alexander, M., & Bryce, D. (2018). What pulls ancestral tourists ‘home’? An analysis of ancestral tourist motivations. Tourism Management, 64, 13-19.- Nash, C. (2005). Geographies of relatedness. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 30(4), 449-462.- Russell, D. W. (2008). Nostalgic tourism. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 25(2), 103-116.- Stephenson, M. L. (2002). Travelling to the ancestral homelands: The aspirations and experiences of a UK Caribbean community. Current Issues in Tourism, 5(5), 378-425.- Pelliccia, A. (2018). In the family home: Roots tourism among Greek second generation in Italy. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(18), 2108-2123.- Scottish Parliament (2000). The Scottish Tourism Industry. The Information Center Research Notes. Database online: Available atwww.scottishparliament.uk/SI/whats_happening/research/pdf-res-notes/rn00-77. pdf- Santos, C. A. and Yan, G. (2010). Genealogical tourism: A phenomenological examination. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 56-67.- Sim, D. and Leith, M. (2013). Diaspora tourists and the Scottish Homecoming 2009. Journal of Heritage Tourism, 8(4), 259-274.- Wilson, F. R., Pan, W., & Schumsky, D. A. (2012). Recalculation of the critical values for Lawshe’s content validity ratio. Measurement and Evaluation in Counseling and Development, 45(3), 197-210.
AbstractOne of the most important challenges facing policymakers and urban planners in recent decades is the issue of accessibility to a variety of urban services. The main purpose of this study was thecalculation of the accessibility of census blocks to medical centers using the Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (2SFCA) method in Isfahan City. In the present study, according to the conditions with and without the limitations of the accessibility radii, different types of distance decay functions were used. The results showed that the 2SFCA method with the use of the cumulative opportunity negative linear function had the highest average of correlation for calculating accessibility to medical centers in comparison with other functions. Calculation of average accessibility in the 15 main regions of Isfahan City showed that the central regions (3, 1, and 5) had the highest decrease and the marginal regions (9, 8, and 11) had the highest increase in the unlimited compared to the limited mode. In general, based on the obtained results of 2SFCA method and the calculated Gini index, the level of inequality in accessibility of census blocks to health services was high in Isfahan City and this inequality increased in terms of accessibility to both hospitals and clinics. Since the extended 2SFCA method has a high capability for assessing supply and demand, as well as catchment area, application of this method can provide a great help for managers and planners in theassessment of the population’s access to a variety of services, such as emergency services and healthcare.Keywords: spatial accessibility, 2SFCA method, distance decay function, medical centers, Isfahan IntroductionOne of the most important challenges faced by policymakers and urban planners in recent decades has been the subjct of access to a variety of urban services. Hospital and clinic centers as the most important urban facilities play an important role in serving people. handeling access to healthcare requires examining the factors, such as spatial distribution of services and demands. Distribution of healthcare centers can affect ease of accessibility for applicants. As health is the basis of social, economic, political, and cultural developments of human societies, identifying deprived areas in terms of accessibility and planning for equitable accessibility to health services for all members of society are essential. MethodologyIn the present study, the Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method (2SFCA) was employed to calculate the access of census blocks to medical centers (hospitals and clinics) in the city of Isfahan for limited and unlimited accessibility radii. To define the most appropriate distance decay function in the 2SFCA method, the average of Pearson’s correlation coefficient between the accessibility values obtained from different distance decay functions was used. The distance decay function with the highest mean correlation of accessibility values compared to other functions was determined as the most appropriate function in the 2SFCA method. Also, the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient were applied to compare inequalities of access to medical centers in Isfahan. Results and DiscussionThe results showed that the use of the negative linear cumulative opportunity distance decay function had the highest average correlation in the accessibility values compared to other functions. In the case of limited accessibility radius, the central regions and some northwest and east areas had the highest accessibility to hospitals. In the case of unlimited radius, the central areas had the most accessibility, while accessibility decreased as the distance from these areas increased. Calculation of the average accessibility in the 15 main regions of Isfahan showed that the central (3, 1 and 5) and marginal (9, 8, and 11) regions had the highest decrease and increase in the unlimited compared to the limited mode, respectively. Also, the sensitivity analysis of accessibility to hospitals showed that Al-Zahra and Hazrat Zahra hospitals in Districts 5 and 14 had the greatest impacts on the accessibility of cesus blocks to hospital services in Isfahan City. Comparing the accessibility of census blocks to both hospitals and clinics with accessibility only to hospitals showed an increase in accessibility in the central areas of the city due to the greater concentration of clinics in those areas. However, in the case of combination of hospitals and clinics, the Gini coefficient was equal to 0.60, which showed an increase of 0.04 compared to the case of accessibility only to hospitals, which indicated that inequality was higher in the combinatorial case. ConclusionConsidering the supply and demand simultaneously, the 2SFCA method can provide a more realistic assessment of the accessibility status of census blocks to medical services. In general, based on the obtained results by this method and due to considering the limited radius of accessibility and calculating the Gini index, the level of inequality in the accessibility of census blocks to health services was high in Isfahan City, while this inequality increased in the case of accessibility to both hospitals and clinics. References- Apparicio, P., Gelb, J., Dubé, A. S., Kingham, S., Gauvin, L., & Robitaille, É. (2017). The approaches to measuring the potential spatial access to urban health services revisited: distance types and aggregation-error issues. International Journal of Health Geographics, 16(1), 1-24.- Bryant Jr, J. and Delamater, P. L. (2019). Examination of spatial accessibility at micro- and macro-levels using the enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method. Annals of GIS, 25(3), 219-229.- Chatterjee, S. and Hadi, A. S. (2006). Regression analysis by example. 4th Ed., John Wiley & Sons.- Chen, X. and Jia, P. (2019). A comparative analysis of accessibility measures by the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 33(9), 1739-1758.- Dai, D. (2010). Black residential segregation, disparities in spatial access to health care facilities, and late-stage breast cancer diagnosis in metropolitan Detroit. Health & Place, 16(5), 1038-1052.- Dewulf, B., Neutens, T., De Weerdt, Y., & Van de Weghe, N. (2013). Accessibility to primary health care in Belgium: an evaluation of policies awarding financial assistance in shortage areas. BMC Family Practice, 14(1), 1-13.- Goswami, S., Murthy, C. A., & Das, A. K. (2018). Sparsity measure of a network graph: Gini index. Information Sciences, 462, 16-39.- Hashtarkhani, S., Kiani, B., Bergquist, R., Bagheri, N., Vafaeinejad, R., & Tara, M. (2020). An age-integrated approach to improve measurement of potential spatial accessibility to emergency medical services for urban areas. The International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 35(3), 788-798.- Jamtsho, S., Corner, R., & Dewan, A. (2015). Spatio-temporal analysis of spatial accessibility to primary health care in Bhutan. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(3), 1584-1604.- Kiran, K. C., Corcoran, J., & Chhetri, P. (2020). Measuring the spatial accessibility to fire stations using enhanced floating catchment method. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 69, 100-673.- Luo, W. (2004). Using a GIS-based floating catchment method to assess areas with shortage of physicians. Health & Place, 10(1), 1-11.- Luo, W. and Qi, Y. (2009). Health & place: An enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method for measuring spatial accessibility to primary care physicians. Health & Place, 15(4), 1100-1107.- Luo, W. and Wang, F. (2003). Measures of spatial accessibility to health care in a GIS environment: Synthesis and a case study in the Chicago region. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 30(6), 865-884.- McGrail, M. R. and Humphreys, J. S. (2014). Measuring spatial accessibility to primary health care services: Utilising dynamic catchment sizes. Applied Geography, 54, 182-188.- Ngui, A. N. and Apparicio, P. (2011). Optimizing the two-step floating catchment area method for measuring spatial accessibility to medical clinics in Montreal. BMC Health Services Research, 11(1), 1-12.- Peng, Z. R. (1997). The jobs-housing balance and urban commuting. Urban Studies, 34(8), 1215-1235.- Park, J. and Goldberg, D. W. (2022). An Examination of the Stochastic Distribution of Spatial Accessibility to Intensive Care Unit Beds during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of the Greater Houston Area of Texas. Geographical Analysis.- Radke, J. and Mu, L. (2000). Spatial decompositions, modeling and mapping service regions to predict access to social programs. Geographic Information Sciences, 6(2), 105-112.- Wang, F. (2000). Modeling Commuting Patterns in Chicago in a GIS Environment: A Job Accessibility Perspective. Professional Geographer, 52(1), 120-133.- Wang, L. (2007). Immigration, ethnicity, and accessibility to culturally diverse family physicians. Health and Place, 13(3), 656-671.- Wang, F. (2012). Measurement, optimization, and impact of health care accessibility: a methodological review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 102(5), 1104-1112.- Zhang, S., Song, X., & Zhou, J. (2021). An equity and efficiency integrated grid-to-level 2SFCA approach: spatial accessibility of multilevel healthcare. International Journal for Equity in Health, 20(1), 1-14.
AbstractThis study was conducted to monitor the current water quality of Beshar River by the Iranian Surface Water Quality Index (IRWQIsc). Monitoring of the river water quality was done based on sampling 12 stations along the river in October of 2021 as the period of water shortage and January of 2022 as the period of high water flow simultaneously with sampling two other stations (fish farm effluent and Yasuj wastewater treatment plant effluent) as the point source pollution entries. The results of zoning Beshar River based on IRWQIsc in the period of water scarcity showed a decrease in river water quality from the upstream to the downstream part. 41.66% of the upstream part of the river (Tang-e Tizab to Dehno) was in a relatively good condition, 8.34% of the river (entrance of Yasuj City) was in a good condition, 8.33% (middle part of the river in Shah Mokhtar Area) was in a relatively bad condition and 41.66% (downstream of the river) was in a moderate condition. Despite the increase in discharge and rainfall, no significant increase in water quality was observed in the high water flow period. In this period, 25% of the river (Tang-e Tizab, Tang-e Sorkh, and downstream of Qalat) was in a moderate condition and 75% of the river was in a relatively good condition based on IRWQIsc. Comparison of the flow rates and IRWQIsc indices showed that only during the high water flow period in the lower reaches of the river, the increased river discharge enhanced the river water quality , but no relationship between the river flow and the IRWQIsc was found at the upstream part of the river and in the period of water scarcity.Keywords: Beshar River, IRWQIsc index, biological oxygen demand IntroductionWater quantity and quality are of the most vital parts of each ecosystem that affect other parts. Therefore, evaluation of the quantity and quality of river water can indicate the status of water resources management in a watershed. Beshar River is one of the most important and water-rich rivers in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province. It provides most of the water needed for drinking, industry, and agriculture, while being exposed to various pollutions. This study was conducted to monitor the current water quality of Beshar River by the Iranian Surface Water Quality Index (IRWQIsc). MethodologyMonitoring of river water quality was done based on sampling 12 stations along the river from the upstream (Tang-e Tizab) to the downstream (Pataveh) parts in October of 2021 as the period of water shortage and January of 2022 as the period of high water flow simultaneously with sampling two other stations (fish farm effluent and Yasuj wastewater treatment plant effluent) as the point source pollution entries. DiscussionThe results of zoning Beshar River based on IRWQIsc in the period of water scarcity showed a decrease in the river water quality from the upstream to the downstream part. 41.66% of the river (upstream part of the river, Tang-e Tizab to Dehno) was in a relatively good condition, 8.34% of the river (entrance of Yasuj City) was in a good condition, 8.33% (middle part of the river in Shah Mokhtar Area) was in a relatively bad condition, and 41.66% (downstream of the river, Tange-Seriz to Pataveh) was in a moderate condition. Despite the increase in discharge and rainfall, no significant increase in water quality was observed in the high water flow period. In this period, 25% of the river (Tang-e Tizab, Tang-e Sorkh, and downstream part of Qalat) was in a moderate condition and 75% of it (Qalat, Dehno, entrance of Yasuj City, Shah Mokhtar to Pataveh) was in a relatively good condition based on IRWQIsc. ConclusionComparison of the flow rates and IRWQIsc indices showed that the increased river discharge in the lower reaches of the river increased the river water quality only during the high water flow period, but at the upstream part of the river and in the period of water scarcity, no relationship was seen between the river flow and IRWQIsc. Proper exploitation of Tang-e Sorkh Dam upstream of Bashar River in the near future and determining and supplying the environmental flows of the river with regard to water quality, especially at its upstream part should be taken into consideration to keep the self-purification ability of the river. References- Abdullah, N. and Jain, S. (2020). Multi-index summer flow regime characterization to inform environmental flow contexts, A New England case study. Ecological Indicators (111):15-1.- Kareem, S., Jaber, W., Al-Maliki, L., Al-Husseiny, R., Al-Mamoori, S. and Alansari, N. (2021). Water quality assessment and phosphorus effect using water quality indices: Euphrates River- Iraq as a case study. Groundwater for Sustainable Development (14): 1-10.- Marselina, M.; Wibowo, F. and Mushfiroh, A. 2022. Water quality index assessment methods for surface water: A case study of the Citarum River in Indonesia. Heliyon (8): 1-10.- Matta, G.; Nayak, A.; and Kumar, A. (2020). Water quality assessment using NSFWQI, OIP and multivariate techniques of Ganga River system, Uttarakhand, India. Applied Water Science 10: 1-12.- Murali, K.; Meenakshi, M. and Uma, R. N. (2020). Surface water (wetlands) quality assessment in Coimbatore (India) based on national sanitation foundation water quality index (NSF WQI). 1st International Conference on Science, Engineering and Technology: 1-7.- Nemati Varnosfaderany, M., Mirghaffary, N., Ebrahimi, E., and Sofyanian, A.R. (2009). Water quality assessment in an arid region using a water quality index. Journal of Water Science & Technology (60.9): 2319-2327. Figures and Tables- Fig. 1: Study area of Beshar River with locations of the point sources of pollution- Fig. 2: Study area and locations of the sample stations along Beshar River- Table 2: IRWQIsc indices and their weights (Water Resources Quality Index, 2013)- Table 4: Classification of surface water qualities of Iran based on IRWQIsc (Water Resources Quality)- Table 5: The measured variables of water quality for the sample stations along Beshar River during the low water flow period- Table 6: The measured variables of water quality in the sample stations along Beshar River during the high water flow period- Fig. 3: IRWQIsc index of the sample stations along Beshar River and effluents of the major sources of pollutants- Fig. 4: Changes of IRWQIsc indices along Beshar River during the high and low water flow periods- Fig. 5: The relationship between discharge and IRWQIsc index in the studied stations (numbers of the stations from the upstream to the downstream part of Beshar River from 1 to 12, respectively)- Supplementary Table 1: Locations of the sample stations along Beshar River and their water qualities- Supplementary Table 2: Water quality variables and their measuring methods (Rezvanipour and Razavi Dinani, 2014)
Extent AbstractIntroductionNew urbanization developments and the emergence of problems in the world have made the central cities of metropolitan areas more vulnerable to the adverse effects of urban development compared to other urban areas. Meanwhile, technological advances have accelerated the population change and increased urban populations. This volume of rapid urbanization has had a significant impact on ancient and historical textures. The ancient and historic cores of cities with a large population of mostly immigrants in recent years have been continually deformed and their textures have been eroded. Therefore, urban planners around the world are working to integrate models of urban development so as to meet the demands and expectations of today's world by integrating all aspects of urbanization.One of the new concepts to address the current challenges of cities in the field of urban planning is smart city development. The smart city is at the heart of the evolution of the 3rd millennium and means opening up of new concepts in urban planning, which combines real-world and virtual world capabilities to solve urban problems. One of the most important projects for the development of worn-out textures, on which planners and city officials have now focused, is the idea of infill development. This theory is one of the categories of urban smart growth and if it is applied correctly, the development of old and worn-out urban areas can be strengthened.Tabriz is one of the oldest residential centers of Iran and an important city in different natural, political, demographic, and other aspects. The metropolis needs several goals to refurbish and modernize the worn-out areas in the form of smart and infill developments so as to maintain its core pillars. One of these goals is providing the basis for optimal urban development and analyzing the infill development in the context of urban development. Prioritizing the indicators, providing sub-themes of the research subject, and identifying the key variables of interstate development policies were the goals of this research. MethodologyA smart city has 6 features: smart shifting, smart economy, smart environment, smart community, smart life, and smart government. In the present study, the subsets of each of these 6 key factors, along with the infill development factors, were studied by measuring their interactions in a matrix. In this regard, the current study intended to identify the priority areas for future planning by examining different aspects of urban smart development and infill development and propose optimal strategies for effectively implementing such developments. The structural equation modeling was utilized to investigate the research conceptual model in detail. For this purpose, the opinions of 50 experts were gathered.To estimate the impacts of smart growth and interdependent development, the researchers created a 53-by-53 matrix by taking into account 34 urban smart development subdivisions and 19 interdisciplinary development subsystems with regard to indigenous and territorial conditions within the system.The 50 experts were provided with the matrix in order to identify the impact of each subsystem in the system. DiscussionThe researchers prepared a questionnaire to determine the weights of the criteria, besides conducting a survey on the opinions of the 50 experts in Tabriz University and Municipality.A total of 53 criteria were identified in a table for the two main factors of smart development and interstate development. Then, by placing these factors in a 53-by-53 matrix, their effects on each other were determined after weighting them.After determining the degree of influence and effectiveness of each of the smart development and infill development factors in the worn-out areas of Tabriz City, the relationship between these factors were investigated using Micmac software. With respect to the bi-directional variables, there was only one factor -- land use compatibility -- related to infill development and the rest of the components were among the factors that affected smart development, indicating the importance of having such development in urban growth and development. The future of the city of Tabriz in different aspects, as well as the development of its worn-out urban textures in particular, could be tied to this kind of development. ConclusionThe current research was undertaken as the first step in studying the impacts of macroeconomic policies on sustainable development and infill development as two interrelated issues. Hence, new horizons were created for the smart development of the worn-out areas of Tabriz. The results showed the prominence of the 3 critical factors of technological infrastructure, creativity, and innovation and ultimately, social and corporate cohesion in the infill development of historic and worn-out areas.A look at the results clearly revealed the impact of urban smart development on infill development that inevitably need to be further explored in planning the developments of the burnt urban areas so as to achieve a comprehensive development. Keywords: urban smart development, infill development, regeneration, worn-out tissue, Tabriz City References- Alvarez, F. (2009). The future internet. Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York.- Aly, S. S., & Attwa, Y. A. (2013). 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IntroductionIn Iran, the Rural Hadi Project is recognized as the first organized and comprehensive national effort to spatially organize villages. It is the most extensive and costly project that has been implemented in geographical areas in the country in order to develop villages. In a simple definition, Hadi Plan is a plan that aims at organizing and modifying the existing texture, the amounts of future expansion, and the way of using lands for various functions, such as residential, commercial, and agricultural lands, facilities and equipment, and general rural needs, as the case may be, in the form of approval for spatial plans and settlements. It determines rural or regional master plans. Taking an approach based on the limitation of physical changes in rural development, several projects have been implemented, all of which have sought rural development. Therefore, it is referred to as a comprehensive rural development plan and the most important tool for rural development management in Iran.One of the important measures that can help strengthen and sustain the positive effects of Hadi Plan is the pathology of the Rural Hadi Plan. In fact, this will lead to awareness of the experts’ views and opinions and identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the plan. Rural communities are perhaps the best evaluators of the functional impairments of Hadi Plan. According to the above, the main questions of the present study were as follows: What are the most important structural damages of the Rural Hadi Plan? What are the most important operational and executive solutions to eliminate the identified damages? 2- MethodologyThe present qualitative research was conducted within the framework of the interpretive-constructive paradigm and its governing method of analysis was thematic analysis. The statistical and target population included the experts and specialists of the Rural Hadi Project. The community included all the individuals at the provincial level and even the nationally recognized experts, who had scientific expertise and executive background for preparing and implementing the master plan. These people included the officials and senior managers, as well as the experts of the Housing Foundation of the Islamic Revolution, surveyors, consultants for preparing the master plan, contractors, consulting engineering companies, the fourth factor, and so on. The relevant data were collected through in-depth semi-structured individual interviews and group interviews, which were based on the theoretical saturation. 3- DiscussionBased on the content analysis of the individual and group interviews conducted with managers, experts, specialists, etc., the identified structural damages included 3 comprehensive themes: extra-organizational, technical-executive, and managerial themes. Each of these themes was derived from several organizing themes (a total of 10 organizing themes), which themselves were identified from 105 basic themes.The identified themes in combination led to the formation of serious damages in the process of preparation and implementation of the Rural Hadi Plan. The effectiveness of this national and macro plan faced many challenges. Therefore, providing operational and executive solutions to solve these damages can be as effective as possible in the Rural Hadi Plan. 4- ConclusionPathology of all development programs and projects can help identify the challenges and issues facing them, present operational-executive solutions to solve problems, and provide the ground for their success as much as possible. Due to the increasing growth of the preparation and implementation of Hadi Plan in rural settlements of the country, the pathology of this design can be effective in further improving its performance. These damages can be grouped into 2 categories: structural and functional. Structural damage in this study meant all the processes related to the Rural Hadi Plan before its impact (its functional effect) on the rural community. The results showed that the most important structural damages of Hadi Plan could be grouped into 3 comprehensive themes: "external organizational", "technical-executive", and "managerial" themes. These resulted in 10 themes the organizer could obtain: damages related to the type of credit and the amount of its allocation, description of the project preparation services and instructions and the criteria for its implementation, handing over the project to the local authorities and maintaining them, preparation of the plan, project implementation monitoring mechanism, consultant (surveyor, design preparation consultant, and fourth agent) and contractor, selection of a village to prepare/review and implement the plan, selection of the type of executive project, schedule of the plan implementation, and approval and notification steps. Due to the uniform process of preparation and implementation of Hadi Plan throughout the country, the results of this study can be generalized to all other provinces in the country. Therefore, the thematic map prepared regarding the structural damage of the conductor design in this research can be used as a basis for solving the damages of Hadi Plan and optimizing its performance in other provinces. Since the output of any scientific study is providing operational and executive solutions to the problem under study, appropriate solutions were presented for each of the identified damages in this paper. Keywords: rural development, Hadi Plan, pathology, theme analysis, Kermanshah References- Belošević, I., Kosijer, M., Ivić, M., Pavlović, N., (2018). Group decision making process for early stage evaluations of infrastructure projects using extended VIKOR method under fuzzy environment, European Transport Research Review, 10 (43), https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-018-0318-4.- Berk, A., Akdemir, S., (2006). Impacts of Rural Development Projects on Rural Areas in Turkey: A Study on Yozgat Rural Development Project, Journal of Applied Sciences, 6 (9): pp 1892-1899.- Bhave, P., Rahate, S., (2018). Impact of Redevelopment Projects on Waste Water Infrastructure, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, 99(3), pp 503–509.- Hosseini, S. B., Faizi, M., Norouzian-Maleki, S., Karimi Azari, A. R., (2015). Impact evaluation of rural development plans for renovating and retrofitting of rural settlements Case Study: Rural Districts of Tafresh in Iran, Environmental Earth Sciences, 73 (7), pp 3033–3042- Hou J., Duan Y., (2016). Research on Rural Infrastructure Project Management of Baohe Village in Beijing of China. In: Qi E., Shen J., Dou R. (eds) Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management 2015. Atlantis Press, Paris.- Huggins, CD (2016), Village land use planning and commercialization of land in Tanzania, LANDac RESEARCH BRIEF 01, pp: 1-6. Available at: https://www.landgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/20160301-LANDacResearchBrief-01Tanzania1.pdf.- Jamini, D., Amini, A., gadermarzi, H and Tavakoli, J (2017), Challenges of food security in rural areas using grounded theory approach in Ravansar County, Western Iran, European Journal of Geography 8 (4): 26–40.- Melore, T.W., Nel, V., (2020). Resilience of informal settlements to climate change in the mountainous areas of Konso, Ethiopia and QwaQwa, South Africa, Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies 12(1), a778. https://doi.org/10.4102/ jamba.v12i1.778.- Mikaeil, H., Ebrahimi, M.S., Amini, A.M., (2013). Analysis the Physical Impact of Implementation of a Rural Master Plan in Iran, American Journal of Rural Development, 1(4), pp 70-74.- Nassar, D.M., Elsayed, H.G., (2018). From Informal Settlements to sustainable communities, Alexandria Engineering Journal, 57, pp 2367–2376.- OECD (2012), Modernisation and Innovation in Rural Areas: Meeting the Challenge, Remarks by Yves Leterme, Deputy Secretary-General OECD, Krasnoyarsk, 3 October 2012, Available at:https://www.oecd.org/regional/regionaldevelopment/Speech%20DSG%20Leterme%20Rural%20Conference%20opening_ENG.pdf.- Satterthwaite, D., Archer, D., Colenbrander, S., Dodman, D., Hardoy, J., Mitlin, D., Patel, S., (2020). Building Resilience to Climate Change in Informal Settlements, One Earth Review, One Earth 2, February 21, pp: 143-156. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.- Setty Pendakur, V (1985), Modernization and Rural Development Strategies: A Case Study of a South Indian Village, Asian Survey, 25(6): 659-677.- Shamsoldini, A., Jamini, D and Jamshidi, AR (2016), Measurement and analysis of social stability in rural areas (Case study: Javanrood Township), Journal of Rural Research, 7(3): 486-503.- Taheri Karimi, A., Javani, B., (2016). An Overview of the Pathology of Historical Context in Soynas Village in Mahabad, International Journal of Social Sciences (IJSS), 6(3), pp 49-64. - Figure 1. Geographical location of Kermanshah province in the country- Figure 2. Number and percentage of Hadi plan implemented in the Township of Kermanshah province- Figure 3.Thematic map of structural damages of rural Hadi plan- Table 1. Number and percentage of implemented Hadi plan in the County of the province separately (Authors, 2021)- Table 2. The basic, organized and comprehensive themes of the interview coding (Authors, 2021)- Table 3. Operational solutions to solve structural damage in rural Hadi Plan (Authors, 2021)
Extended abstract:Introduction: Following the increasing expansion of cities and urban population, the demand for urban services is also increasing. One of the important services in cities is administrative service that meets the citizens’ daily needs. This type of service has been established by ministries and central organizations with the increase of the number of cities and urban population and consequently, the increase of citizens' service needs. On the other hand, fair and adequate distribution of disciplinary enforcement centers has an effective role in establishing security and tranquility in cities. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately identify the current situation in this field in order to create a more appropriate and equitable distribution of administrative-disciplinary spaces that are needed by today's societies. In this regard, the purpose of this article was to evaluate the spatial pattern of administrative-disciplinary services in Isfahan so as to achieve the effect of the administrative model of administrative-disciplinary services on the desirability of the functional radius of these services and assess the relationship between the spatial distribution of administrative-disciplinary services and population in the related areas. Methodology: This study was of an applied type based on the purpose and a descriptive-analytical research in nature and method. Data collection was based on the library method. After collecting the basic information and data, the spatial distribution of administrative-disciplinary enforcement services was firstly modeled by using the nearest neighborhood analysis method, local Moran index, global Moran index, and hot-spot analysis in Arc GIS software environment. Then, the effect of the spatial distribution pattern of these services on the desirability of their functional radius was evaluated in the same software by using fuzzy membership function. In the next step, by drawing the map of Isfahan neighborhoods in GeoDa software, the spatial autocorrelation of the variable population of Isfahan with the distribution of administrative-disciplinary services in its neighborhoods was determined and analyzed by using Moran’s bivariate index.Discussion: The analysis of the nearest neighborhood showed that the administrative-disciplinary enforcement services in Isfahan were randomly distributed. According to the calculations of the global Moran coefficient, the administrative-disciplinary enforcement services were distributed in clusters in the neighborhoods with a probability of 99%. By calculating the local Moran for the neighborhoods of Isfahan, it was found that 3 neighborhoods in District 13 were significantly located at the High-High clustering level, which indicated establishment of the neighborhoods with more administrative-disciplinary enforcement services nearby and in clusters. One neighborhood in District 10 and one in District 14 were located at the High-Low level. These neighborhoods had a large number of administrative-disciplinary enforcement services, while being surrounded by less record-breaking neighbors. 3 neighborhoods in District 13, which were located at the Low-High clustering level, faced the lack of access to these services, while being adjacent to the neighborhoods with a better access. Other neighborhoods did not have a significant autocorrelation. According to the maps drawn through the hot-spot analysis, the neighborhoods and central areas, especially areas 1, 3, 5, and 6, had formed hot spots and moved to the outskirts of the city due to their high administrative-disciplinary services, especially area 9 and the northeast part of the city. Also, cold spots were forming, which indicated the lack of administrative-disciplinary enforcement services in these neighborhoods. Assessing the effectiveness of the spatial distribution model of these services on the desirability of the functional radius demonstrated the desirability of their functional radius in the central regions, as well as unfavorable areas and neighborhoods around the city. The desirability of the functional radius was in favor of the center but had caused a detriment to the surroundings. Moran’s bivariate index was applied to measure and evaluate the spatial autocorrelation, which showed very low probability of the spatial distribution of administrative-disciplinary enforcement services based on the variable population with low significance. Conclusion: In general, the results indicated that the spatial distribution of administrative-disciplinary enforcement services in the neighborhoods of Isfahan City was inappropriate in a way that the desirability of access to these services in the central areas was very high, while citizens in the suburbs were facing lack of access to these services. Therefore, it is necessary to consider programs and policies that eliminate this major spatial gap and establish spatial justice in the neighborhoods of Isfahan and ultimately social justice to cover the entire city. According to David Harvey, it is advisable to give extra services to the groups in need because they do not have a history of using these services and are not thus accustomed to them. This is especially true of municipal services for very poor groups, new immigrants, and the like. Hence, entitlement to the geographical framework would be allocation of additional resources to compensate for the social and natural problems of each region. Keywords: spatial justice, spatial distribution, administrative-disciplinary services, Isfahan neighborhood References- Ardeshiri, Ali, Ken Willis & Mahyar Ardeshiri (2018). Exploring preference homogeneity and heterogeneity for proximity to urban, public services, Cities, pp 1–13.- Boyne. A., Georg, Martin A. Powell (2002). Territoial Justice Spatial Justice and Local covernment Finance, University of Herhordshire & university of clamorgan.- Delbosec, A. and G., Currie (2011). Using Lorenz curves to assess public transport equity, Journal of Transport Geography, 19(6), 1252-1259.- Deniz, A. (2012). Measuring the satisfaction of citizens for the services given by the municipality: the case of Kirsehir municipality. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 32(24).- Dutta, v (2012). War on the Dream, How Land use Dynamic and Sprawling City Devour the Master Plan and Urban Suitability. A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach, proceeded in 13th Global Development Conference Urbanisatio and Development: Delving Deeper into the Nexus, Budapest, hungary.- Getis Arthur, (2005). Spatial Pattern Analysis, Encyclopedia of Social Measurement, Volume 3.- Godillon, S (2011). Urban renewal – a vehicle for spatial justice in the face of traffic safety problems, js.1-10.- Harvey, David (1935). "Social Justice and the City", the translator: Farokh. Hesamyan and Mohammad Reza Haeri and Behrouz monadi zadeh, the company processing and urban planning, Winter 1997, page 271.- Herrera, F., & Herrera-Viedma, E. (2002). «Linguistic decision analysis: steps for solving decision problems under linguistic information», Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 115, 67–82.- Langford, M., Higgs, G., Radcliffe, J. While, S. (2008). Urban Population Distntution Models and Service Accessibility Estimation Compuers Environment and Urban System.- Laurent E (2011). Issues in environmental justice within the European Union, Ecological Economics, No. 70, 1846–1853.- Liao, Chin-Hsien, Chang, Hsueh-Sheng, Tsou, Ko-Wan (2009). Explore the spatial equity of urban public facility allocation based on sustainable development viewpoint, 14th International Conference on Urban Planning and Regional Development in the Information Society, Spain: Sitges, p 137-145.- Lorestani A., Yaghoubpour Z., Shirzadian R. (2016). Analysis of spatial distribution of Tehran Metropolis urban services using models of urban planning, Capital Urban Manage., 1(2). Pp 83-92.- Mitchel, G. and Norman, P. (2012). longitudinal environmental justice analysis: Co-evolution of environmental quality and deprivation in England, 1960–2007. Geoforum, No. 43, pp: 44-57.- Parry, Jahangeer A., Showkat A. Ganaie & M. Sultan Bhat (2018). GIS based land suitability analysis using AHP model for urban services planning in Srinagar and Jammu urban centers of J&K, India, Journal of Urban Management 7, pp 46-56.- Sohel Rana M. D (2009). Status of water use sanitation and hygienic condition of urban slums: A study on Rupsha Ferighat slum, Khulna", www.elsevier.com, pp. 322-328.- Tirband, Majid and Azani, Mehri (2012). Distribution of facilities and municipal services based on social justice, case study: Yasouj city, Journal of applied sociology, Issue 23, No46, p: 109-138.- Wiesel, Ilan, Liu Fanqi and Buckle Caitlin (2017). 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Figures:- Figure 1: Map of the political situation of Isfahan in the city, province and country- Figure 2: Map of the central feature and directional distribution of administrative- disciplinary services in neighborhoods and areas of Isfahan- Figure 3: The pattern of distribution of administrative- disciplinary services in Isfahan city using the average nearest neighborhood analysis- Figure 4: The pattern of distribution of administrative- disciplinary services in the neighborhoods of Isfahan using Moran index- Figure 5: Spatial autocorrelation of Isfahan neighborhoods from the perspective of having administrative-disciplinary services- Figure 6: Analysis of hot and cold spots in neighborhoods of Isfahan from the perspective of administrative-disciplinary- Figure 7: Analysis of the desirability of the functional radius of administrative-disciplinary services in Isfahan based on the fuzzy membership method- Figure 8: Spatial autocorrelation diagram (local Moran) between of the population and the area of administrative- disciplinary services in Isfahan neighborhoods- Figure 9: Spatial autocorrelation map between the population and the area of administrative- disciplinary services in Isfahan neighborhoods
Extended Abstract:IntroductionImam Ali Square (AS) as the most important open space in the northern part of Isfahan with high activity density needs to achieve the desired quantitative and qualitative dimensions. The reconstruction and revitalization of the square has been the major costly urban renovation project in this city. For examlem to rehabilitate the square, the passing cars in the four streets leading to this place were first driven out of the square through the underpasses and then, all the shops in the middle of the square wer bought and demolished through public participation by using participation papers. Next, the markets on the sides of the square were completed and restored with traditional designs. The local markets have now their activaties in this square on Mondays and Wednesdays, while the municipality has tried to organize or dismantle them. When paying attention to the actions taken, one can observe that they are comprehensive and holistic.However, only physical issues, such as paving and improvement of appearance, have been considered in the restoration plans of this complex. It seems that effective steps have not been taken to revitalize this square. Revitalization of an urban -- economic life and vitality --has a hidden dimension often overlooked. For example, this complex has not been successful in enabling the former merchants to buy new shops and got involved in such issues as lack of attending to former small businesses that have used to increase interactions, lack of welcoming citizens, and lack of maintaining meanings and memories. Due to its proximity to the old market and historical sites, this space has the potential to create an active tourist center that can provide strong roots of urban life. Therefore, paying more attention to the performance of this area could increase citizens' satisfaction and vitality and a sense of belonging for citizens and businesses. Undoubtedly, neglecting the mentioned factors and not conducting the necessary research in this regard would cause the lack of tangible identity, disorder and visual confusion, lack of psychological security and people’s confusion in the area, abandonment of cultural and historical elements, lack of positive people’s evaluation of urban spaces, reduced social interactions, and decreased sense of belonging. Therefore, the present made an attempt to study the effects of recreating Imam Ali Square on the socio-economic performance of the surrounding area. MethodologyThe present study was an applied research with a descriptive-analytical approach. In the first step, a list of the influential factors were identified as the research variables and compiled in the form of two questionnaires. In the first questionnaire, the importance of each factor based on Likert Spectrum was asked from 100 urban experts as the statistical population using the Snowball method. To assess the importance of economic and socio-cultural practices in Imam Ali Square, the information collected from the first questionnaire was analyzed through descriptive findings and Chi-square tests in the SPSS software environment. The average values of economic and socio-cultural indicators in the real society were assumed to be equal to 3. The importance of the studied indicators in all the items had to be higher than average. Applying the method of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) in the LISREL software environment, the effective socio-economic factors in recreating the area of Imam Ali Square were identified. DiscussionThe results showed that the level of satisfaction with the neighborhood was below the social criterion and the economic criterion of land and housing market was one of the most important factors affecting the quality of life in the area. Changing false and unstable activities and jobs, organizing suitable jobs and activities, modifying the prices of residential commercial lands, increasing the qualities of commercial units, attracting domestic and foreign investors to the economic sector, increasing the presence of pedestrians and social groups and their understanding of the area, removing the disturbing jobs, strengthening the national and international images of this square, organizing beggars, using the square as an urban space, and reducing individual and social insecurities in the social sector were among the factors that received the highest points in the fields of recreating the economic and socio-cultural performance of the square, thus indicating that the project of recreating the revitalizing Imam Ali Square had been successful in these fields. ConclusionImam Ali Square was considered as the most active and prosperous commercial and economic areas in Isfahan before its reconstruction. People from the surrounding cities and villages in addition to Isfahan used to come to this place for shopping due to the great variety of products offered in this area. For example, the fruit and vegetable market in the north of Abdul Razzaq Street was very prosperous though being an irregular complex of fruit stalls. In the past, especially during the Qajar period, this center was used to buy and sell coal. However, after supplying oil and gas to the domestic and industrial markets, the coal sale activity gradually declined and was replaced by peddling activities. Towards the end of the square, a gathering place was formed for vendors to sell second-hand and cheap goods. Another market in this area was the bird market in Cucumber Caravanserai. In this market, animals, such as chickens, roosters, partridges, pigeons, etc., were sold. The mentioned center and the coal market had a very dirty atmosphere and an unfavorable appearance. They had nothing to do with the historical identity and cultural values of the area. In this place, peddling, smuggling, buying and selling drugs, and begging were done a lot.Nevertheless, among the actions taken, meanings and memorable messages, customer attraction, business satisfaction, and economic life were lacking in this area and this had caused it to be involved in a declined prosperity and hence not to have its former vitality. Keywords: urban space, recreation, historical context, Imam Ali Square, Isfahan References:- Aykaç, P., Rifaioğlu, M.N., Altınöz, A.G.B., Güçhan, N.Ş., (2009). Design Interventions as Regenerators in Historic Towns: Proposal for Ayvalık Historic Depots Region, In the International Conference on the Urban Projects, Architectural Intervention in Urban Areas, TU, Delft, The Netherlands.- Bailey, N., (2010). Understanding community empowerment in urban regeneration and planning in England: putting policy and practice in context, Planning Practice & Research, 25 (3), 317-332.- Bursiewicz, N., (2018). Regeneration of market squares in historic town centres: ideas, discussions, controversies, Urban development issues, 60 (1), 67-79.- Cho, G.H., Kim, J.H., Lee, G., (2020). Announcement effects of urban regeneration plans on residential property values: Evidence from Ulsan, Korea, Cities, 97, 102570.- Coscia, C., Rubino, I., (2020, May). Fostering New Value Chains and Social Impact-Oriented Strategies in Urban Regeneration Processes: What Challenges for the Evaluation Discipline? In INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM: New Metropolitan Perspectives, pp. 983-992, Springer, Cham.- Couch, C., Dennemann, A., (2000). Urban regeneration and sustainable development in Britain: The example of the Liverpool Ropewalks Partnership, Cities, 17 (2), 137-147.- Couch, C., Sykes, O., Börstinghaus, W., (2011). Thirty years of urban regeneration in Britain, Germany and France: The importance of context and path dependency, Progress in planning, 75 (1), 1-52.- Ellin, N., (2006). Integral Urbanism, London and New York: Routledge.- Hajjari, M., (2009). Improving urban life through urban public spaces: a comparison between Iranian and Australian cases, Universitas, 21.- https://rasekhoon.net/- https://www.yjc.news/- Korkmaz, C., Balaban, O., (2020). Sustainability of urban regeneration in Turkey: Assessing the performance of the North Ankara Urban Regeneration Project, Habitat International, 95, 102081.- Orueta, F.D., (2007). Madrid: Urban regeneration projects and social mobilization, Cities, 24 (3), 183-193.- Raco, M., (2003). Assessing the discourses and practices of urban regeneration in a growing region, Geoforum, 34 (1), 37-55.- Sairinen, R., Kumpulainen, S., (2006). Assessing social impacts in urban waterfront regeneration, Environmental impact assessment review, 26 (1), 120-135.- San Juan, C., Subiza-Pérez, M., Vozmediano, L., (2017). Restoration and the city: the role of public urban squares, Frontiers in psychology, 8, 2093.- Sasaki, M., (2010). Urban regeneration through cultural creativity and social inclusion: Rethinking creative city theory through a Japanese case study, Cities, 27, S3-S9.- Trancik, R., (1986). Finding lost space, theories of urban space, New york, 256.- Uysal, Ü.E., (2012). An urban social movement challenging urban regeneration: The case of Sulukule, Istanbul. Cities, 29 (1), 12-22.- Wang, Y., Yamaguchi, K., Kawasaki, M., (2018). Urban revitalization in highly localized squares: A case study of the Historic Centre of Macao, Urban Design International, 23 (1), 34-53.- Xuili, G., Maliene, V., (2021). A Review of Studies on Sustainable Urban Regeneration, EPiC Series in Built Environment, 2, 615-625.- Yu, J.H., Kwon, H.R., (2011). Critical success factors for urban regeneration projects in Korea, International Journal of Project Management, 29 (7), 889-899.
Extended Abstract:Introduction: Today's environmental issues are deeply socialized and consequently, a responsible view of the environment is one of the hallmarks of many societies for moving towards sustainable development. Environmental attitudes are defined as a set of friendly (positive) and unfriendly (negative) feelings towards the environment and related topics. Environmental attitudes are strong predictors of environmental behaviors. Therefore, solving environmental crises depends on changing one’s attitude and perceived value to the environment. Two perspectives can be identified in terms of two paradigms regarding attitudes towards the environment. One view is referred to as the dominant social paradigm and the other is the new environmental paradigm. The new environmental paradigm points to the limitations that must inevitably be placed on human (economic) growth, namely the importance of maintaining a balance between nature and the development of a sustainable economy, or the need to rethink the belief that nature exists solely for the sake of human needs. This paradigm emphasizes the balanced relationship between humans and other species as well as sustainability in the use of natural resources. This paradigm consists of three dimensions, which include ‘growth restriction’, ‘rejecting anthropocentrism’, and accepting the ‘fragility of nature’s balance’. Given the importance of attitudes towards the environment and its role in dealing with nature, the question posed in this study is: which environmental perspective is common among societies? Some experts attribute environmental problems to people and believe that their views on the environment are not appropriate and their indifference to the environment is excessive and unjustifiable. But is this claim true, and is it just for ordinary people? In other words, do natural resource management and conservationists have a good view of the environment? This research was conducted to find the environmental views of forest guard staff in Golestan province. Methodology: This research was conducted using the survey research method. The study population consisted of the Forest Guard staff of the Golestan Province. Using the stratified random sampling method, 264 of them were selected in the counties of Golestan province. Data collection was done in 2018 using a questionnaire. The first part of the questionnaire included questions about the demographic and occupational characteristics of staff including age, marital status, work experience, level of education, and place of residence. The second part consisted of 15 items related to the Environmental Attitude Index based on the new environmental paradigm. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were confirmed by face validity and Cronbach's test, respectively. Discussion: The results of the study showed that the average age of respondents was 40.36 years. They had an average of 14.26 years of work experience. The majority of them (92%) were married. Also, 60.2% of them lived in cities, and the rest in rural areas. The average educational level of the study samples was above the high school diploma. Exploratory factor analysis showed that the structure of Forest Guard staff’s attitudes towards the new environmental paradigm derives from five factors including ecological equilibrium, growth restriction, technology-oriented, optimism about the future, and anthropocentrism, which explained 56.32% of the variance of the dependent variable. Among these factors, ‘growth restriction’ is the first priority and ‘no optimism about the future’ is the last priority. Married participants reject more anthropocentrism than singles, but singles are more skeptical about the future of the environment than married. The attitudes of Forest Guard staff were independent of age, marital status, and place of residence, but with increasing levels of education, their attitude towards the new environmental paradigm became weaker. Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that the environmental attitude of the study population could be assessed at a relatively appropriate level. However, this attitude was not strong enough. In addition, attitudes towards the new environmental paradigm is a multidimensional phenomenon with five dimensions including ecological equilibrium, growth restriction, technology-oriented, optimism about the future, and anthropocentrism. The dimensions revealed in the present study are consistent with those introduced for the new environmental paradigm in other studies, namely the rejection of human dominance over nature, ecological balance, and limited development. Using re-training and in-service programs to improve the environmental attitudes of Forest Guard staff are suggested. Keywords: Environment, Attitude, Conservation, Natural Resources. References:- Ai-He, H., & Greenberg, S. (2008). Motivating in Sustainable Energy Consumption in the Home. Department of Computer Science, University of Calgary. 5 p.- Albrecht, D., Bultena, G., Hoiberg, E., & Nowak, P. (1982). 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Extended abstract IntroductionPopulation growth, drought, climate change, and mismanagement policies have strongly affected the existing water resources. One of the most effective ways to achieve the goals of agricultural water management is setting up and optimizing irrigation and drainage networks for agricultural water. Water experts consider construction and establishment of water pumping stations in rural areas as one of the important principles of optimal agricultural water management. However, despite the costs incurred, the evidence shows that most of these networks have faced many problems and beneficiaries’ participations in the maintenance of installations have been minimal. Moreover, in the design and implementation of these projects, social studies of the involved regions and the main stakeholders’ opinions about these projects seem to have been ignored. As a result, the efficiency and productivity of such stations, as well as investment in the development of water resources, have decreased. In this regard, several pumping stations have been built for developing gardens in Kermanshah Province, but almost all of them are inactive for reasons such as the lack of technical and accurate engineering. The only water pumping station which is ready to operate is in Ghomsheh Village, but many problems occurring from the time of its approval to implementation have led to the villagers’ distrust and pessimism towards the implementation of the project. After taking some steps, the villagers have refused to participate in the project and have not accepted it. However, based on the available evidence, construction of a water pumping station can have positive benefits for stakeholders. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to perform a Root Cause Analysis (RCA) of the factors limiting the success of the project of water pumping station in the village of Ghomsheh Faraman and provide solutions to overcome the mentioned problems. 2- MethodologyThis study was a qualitative research and a case study in terms of obtaining facts and data processing. The study population included the beneficiaries covering the water pumping station of Ghomsheh Village, 15 people in Darood Faraman and 11 officials, who were involved in the implementation of this project. The sampling method was purposeful based on semi-structured interviews and the focus groups were used to collect the data. Fifteen and 11 individual interviews with the villagers and the officials involved in the water pumping station were done, respectively. The average time of the interviews was 40-50 min. The researcher also conducted 2 and 2 focus group interviews with the community of beneficiaries (6-8 people) and the project-related officials (6-7 people), respectively. To analyze the data, the RCA technique was utilized. Root analysis is the process of a structured investigation that aims to identify the real cause of a problem. It is a multi-stage process that includes: 1) problem identification; 2) information gathering; 3) information analysis; and 4) cause-and-effect analysis. To identify the main problem, the interviews were conducted with the project beneficiaries and officials. Then, each of the relevant interviews was transcribed and the key concepts and root causes were extracted after summarizing them. Upon identifying the problem, cause, and root cause during a re-interview with the project beneficiaries and officials, the revitalization strategies of the project implementation were extracted. 3- DiscussionA necessary condition for the growth and development of any community, including the village of Ghomsheh Faraman, is creating jobs, which, despite its high importance, has poorly and negatively been done in the mentioned village, thus resulting in increased unemployment and the villagers’ decreased incomes. Construction of this station has not only led to the villagers’ unemployment, but also enhanced their migration and addiction, as well as divorce in some cases. Researchers’ findings in this regard have shown that the project incompatibility with the beneficiaries’ main profession has extended its duration, labors’ abandonment from the village, and lack of diversity of activities in the village as the root of the problems reducing rural incomes and augmenting unemployment. Another major problem for the project of water pumping station in Ghomsheh Faraman Village has been the villagers’ unwillingness to cooperate with the authorities, which was found to be the dominant and main problem contributing to the project inefficiency in this study. The people’s reluctance towards the project implementation, the beneficiaries’ indecision for accomplishing it, the profiteering views of some of them, their pessimism and distrust towards the officials, as well as the officials’ empty promises and ignorance towards the beneficiaries’ protests and demands were the roots of the problem. Nonetheless, this had not prevented the project construction and implementation, despite the users’ reluctance towards horticulture and even the existence of inadequate feasibility studies, which had temporarily resulted in the waste of resources, stagnation of the station, increased unemployment and migration, return to the primary cultivation method, and the beneficiaries’ pessimism and distrust towards the project. After 8 years from the construction of the project, still, no gardens have been constructed and the agricultural lands have been stagnated, while the beneficiaries have remained undecided whether to continue the path and construct the gardens or return to the primary cultivation method. They are still reluctant to cooperate with the authorities. Another issue was the uncertainty of land ownership. In the lands covered by the station, the issue of ownership was very important with some needs to be considered. Huge investments had been made to control, regulate, transfer, and distribute water by water pumping stations.The beneficiaries’ participation in the station-related planning was one of the joint strategies expressed by the two groups, which, if implemented, could have a very positive effect on the beneficiaries’ participation, which could then increase their desire for gardening, accepting the station costs, reducing the project time and cost, creating the villagers’ sense of ownership and responsibility so as to take care of the tools and facilities required for the project. Farmers' involvement in irrigation projects is essential since it can enhance their abilities to plan, reduce operating and maintenance costs, and increase their sense of responsibility. To solve the main problems, i.e., lack of diversity of activities in the village and the officials and farmers’ involvement in the project, a joint strategy of the Agricultural Jihad Organization to assist the villagers in the construction of a cattle ranch, as well as growing mushrooms and bees is needed. If such businesses are launched, the villagers’ income would increase and the economic pressures could decrease. In addition, creating jobs in the village could reduce unemployment and poverty, improve life quality, and ultimately lower rural migration. A legal solution to the problem of land ownership was another joint strategy proposed by the officials and beneficiaries of the project to address the root of the problem resulting from lack of attention to the customary-property laws. Implementation of this strategy would give hope to the villagers to realize their rights with the help of the authorities, better accept legal votes by the relevant institutions in this area, and have less opposition in launching and reviving the project. The legal solution to the problem of land ownership would make them feel secure about their properties. Another joint strategy presented by the beneficiaries and officials involved in the project was to solve the root of the problem of management instability. Hiring a professional and consistent manager for the mentioned station would shorten the time of garden construction and implementation of the second phase, while solving the challenges and problems of the project more easily because of the manager's familiarity with the project implementation process. 4- ConclusionTo identify the root causes of inefficiency of the water pumping station in Ghomsheh Village and provide a strategy for solving them, the RCA technique was employed. Following the interviews with the beneficiaries and officials involved in the project, 7 problems of the station inefficiency were identified: lack of the villagers’ willingness to cooperate with the authorities, farmers’ decreased incomes and increased unemployment, lack of land ownership, repetitions of the process and past mistakes, loss of the beneficiaries’ economic livelihood, and imposition of part of the costs on them. Also, such executive strategies as involving the operators in the planning of the station, determining the amount of land covered by the station in the second phase, helping the villagers to establish agricultural projects, finding a legal solution to the problem of agricultural land ownership, beginning and ending the second phase at the announced deadline, using a professional and consistent manager until the end of the project, etc. were proposed.Keywords: water pumping station, Root Cause Analysis (RCA), irrigation scheme, farmer’s participation References:- Abdollah Zadeh, G. H., Ranjbari Shareh, S., & Rahimi, R. A. (2017). Investigating the impact of watershed management projects on quality of life in rural areas of Babol county. Quarterly Journal of Geographical Space, 17(59), 121-142.- Adib Haj Bagheri, M., Parvizi, S., & Salsali, M. (2011). Qualitative research methods. Tehran: Boshra Publication.- Adimi, M. J. (2006). 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Abstract:According to the statistics of the Organization of the Environment, a total of 48 days of air pollution exceeds the admissible threshold (AQI more than 150) for the three months of the year. These days coincide with the time when Tehran's inversion reaches its maximum stability. The purpose of the present study was first to determine the height of air pollution in Tehran on the days when pollution exceeds the permissible limit. It also aims to study the pressure and temperature masses of such days, considering the geographical and topographic conditions, and finally to identify the best of these cells for theoretically possible air turbulence. The results of this study, based on Tehran temperature and pressure data over a 15-year period (2003-2017), show that the highest elevation of Tehran inversion does not exceed 1800 meters on polluted days. Only within 6 days of whole days beyond the admissible threshold, temperature and pressure cells with the highest Newtonian mass are formed. The center of such cells shows a pressure difference of 32 milligrams in November, 7 milligrams in January, 100 milligrams in December, as well as a temperature difference of 1.1 degrees in November, 4.4 degrees in January, and 1.9 degrees in December. Based on the results and topographic conditions as well as the cell adaptation to such conditions, it seems that theoretically, it is possible to artificially create air turbulence in Tehran to mitigate the contamination amount.Extended AbstractIntroductionTehran is one of the largest and the most crowded cities that suffers from air pollution. On some days of the year, the amount of contaminating and pollution elements increases so much that breathing is very difficult for inhabitants. The Air Quality Index (AQI) varies over the course of a year in Tehran. During autumn and winter, Tehran becomes more polluted. Atmospheric temperature inversion worsens air pollution during that period. The two factors of climate and topography are affecting air pollution in Tehran. These two factors are emphasized in this research to look for a way to eliminate or at least decrease the pollution of Tehran's air. This research focuses on vertical and horizontal exchanges via atmospheric mixing by defining the good conditions for instability during the inversion periods in Tehran. If there are suitable mixing conditions (identified with cells of pressure and/or temperature), we could define the best status for instability. There is a need to know the differences between temperature and pressure that give rise to air turbulence. MethodologyFirstly, the pressure and temperature maps were drawn at different levels of the atmosphere. Further, based on these maps, the levels that had the most number cells of pressure and temperature with the most gradient were selected. This revealed the degree of differences in temperature and pressure that cells should have to create instability. We used the synoptic stations and the air pollution testing stations as well as Google Earth, Arc GIS, Surfer, and Voxler software DiscussionIn the first step, we find the days when the AQI (Air Quality Index) was greater than 150 as dangerous days of pollution from 2003 until 2017. In order to calculate the average inversion level, Radiosonde data were used. The height of the inversion phenomenon in Tehran is not the same in the target months (January, November, and December). The highest inversion height in the target months is 1800 m and the lowest is 1300 m. Exceedance of the AQI index or the pollution crisis threshold does not cover all areas of Tehran in the target months. That is, while some districts of Tehran experience higher pollution than the thresholds, others do not. During December, the expanse of pollution in Tehran is wider than other target months.Next, based on the determined inversion levels, the zoning maps of pressure and temperature on critical days of pollution were drawn in the target months. From among them, maps containing temperature and pressure cells were selected, then a matrix was prepared for all cells in the selected maps and their Newtonian mass was calculated. This matrix represents the cells that have the gradient because the two factors of cell difference and distances play a major role in their triggering. Finally, for each month, two temperature and pressure cells with the highest Newtonian mass were selected.In order to investigate the effect of topographic terrains on temperature and pressure cells, and to further understand the location of these cells, the temperature and pressure cells were overlain on the topography of the area. For this purpose, a 3D map of the area’s heights was plotted, and the synoptic stations, pressure, and temperature cells overlapped for analysis and investigation. ConclusionThe following results were obtained by drawing and examining the pressure and temperature maps:1) There are two cells in the November temperature map at Imam Khomeini Airport Station and Mehrabad Station. Imam Khomeini's cell is located at an altitude of 990.2 meters near the low elevation range of southern Shahriar. Mehrabad cell is located at an elevation of 1190 meters and in the easterly part of the southern Alborz Mountains.2) The temperature maps of January with two cells of geophysics and Shemiran are 1423.8 m and 1548.2 meters, respectively. The two formed cells are located in the recesses of the southern slope of the Alborz Mountains, and it may be noted that the confinement of cell formation zones may influence the formation of these temperature cells.3) The December temperature map contains two cells of geophysics and Shemiran, which are located at altitudes of 1423.8 and 1548.2, respectively. These two cells are also located in the indentation of the southern slope of the Alborz Mountains.4) On the map of November pressure difference, two cells of Chitgar at 1305.2 height and Imam Khomeini airport cell at 990.2 height are located. The Chitgar Cell lies on the southern slope of Alborz, where the heights have advanced, and the Imam Khomeini Airport cell is near the low-lying slopes south of Shahriar. The formation of these pressure cells at the sites mentioned may be affected by the air currents in the area. These currents, due to the advance of the southern slopes of the eastern highlands, divert the surface winds of these currents to the southern plains and increase the relative wind velocity at these points.5) The January pressure difference map shows two cells of Mehrabad with a height of 1190.2 and Chitgar with a height of 1305.2 meters. The two cells are located on the eaves of the southern Alborz Mountains.6) December pressure maps showed two cells of geophysics and Mehrabad. These two cells were located at 1423.8 and 1190.2, respectively. These two cells are located on the northern elevation of Tehran. In fact, this part of the southern slope of Alborz is indented, and this retreat can be effective in winds and existing cells.According to the obtained results, among all days that the AQI passes the threshold, only in 6 days, temperature and pressure closed cells with the highest Newtonian mass are formed. The center of these cells shows a pressure difference of 32 milligrams in November, 7 milligrams in January, 100 milligrams in December, and the temperature difference of 1.1 degrees in November, 4.4 degrees in January, and 1.9 degrees in December.Generally, considering the formed cells by the temperature and pressure difference and the gradient between them as well as the difference in height between the cells and their location and pointing out that the local winds cause the difference of temperature and pressure, it seems that, theoretically, it is possible to create artificial air turbulence in Tehran within the study area to control the contamination amount. Knowledge of the conditions in the study area is natural in this study and there is no uniformity pattern for all areas in the subject area. This study was conducted only for a limited period of 15 years (from 2003 to 2017) in the study area of Tehran province and also all analyses were performed on the basis of statistics measured in synoptic stations in this area. It should be emphasized that all reviews and results are based on this range and the data and cannot be generalized. Keywords: Inversion, Air Pollution, Thermal Cells, Pressure Cells, Tehran. References- Ccoyllo, S. O. R., & Andrade, M. F. (2002). The influence of meteorological conditions on the behavior of Sapaolo Brazil. (n.p).- Dutta, J., Chowdhury, C., Roy, S., Middya, A. I., & Gazi, F. (2017). Towards smart city: Sensing air quality in city based on opportunistic crown-sensing. In Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Networking, Hyderabad, India, 5–7.- Fargkou, M. C. (2009). 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AbstractThe purpose of this study was to model and predict temporal and spatial patterns of land-use change in the Zayandehrud basin. In this research, the CA-Markov prediction model was used to simulate and predict land-use change. First, the land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were studied and then the future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Afterward, the future land-use scenarios were designed. The model was validated by comparing the simulated map of 2018 with the real map, and the kappa coefficient of 94 % was utilized to evaluate the model. Based on the results, the Built-up land-use was altered from 13016 hectares in 1996 to 154194 hectares in 2050. This outcome necessitates the management of the future development of the city. Furthermore, the amount of agricultural land was varied from 177067 hectares in 1996 to 40,000 hectares in 2050. Among all the changes, agricultural lands attracted the most attention and concerns. The results indicated the land-use changes in the form of urban areas and reducing area of agricultural lands. Such alterations were taken place in two distinct stages: urban lands have been developing since 2013, with a direct impact on the reduction of vegetation due to the conversion of agricultural lands into other land-uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. In 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. In addition, the agricultural and orchard lands were 74057 hectares in 2018 and can be reduced to 40,000 hectares by 2050. It revealed 34057 hectares lost as compared to the agricultural and orchard lands in 2018. The present study depicts that the expansion of urban and industrial activities and reducing the level of agricultural land in the region requires more attention and care in land management. Extended Abstract:Introduction: Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is one of the main issues of sustainable development. To provide a rational science for regional planning decisions and sustainable development, land use pattern prediction models based on past preliminary information can be used to construct future scenarios of land-use changes. Modeling and predicting land use changes provide an interesting perspective for applications in planning units such as river basins and make it an effective tool for analyzing the causal dynamics of the future landscape under different scenarios. Land-use models are considered a powerful tool for understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of land-use changes, such as the Markov chain, cellular automation, and hybrid models based on these methods, which are widely used to simulate the spatial and temporal dimensions of land use. In the present study, land use changes prediction was performed using a combined model of cellular automation and the Markov chain (CA-Markov) to simulate temporal and spatial land-use patterns. The present study tries to predict land-use changes in the Zayandehrood river basin. The Zayandehrud basin is currently facing major environmental problems (such as water resources scarcity, population growth, urban development, and agricultural land degradation). Therefore, it is essential to evaluate land-use changes for this sensitive basin. In particular, the objectives of the research include two stages: 1) patial modeling of land-use change, and 2) predicting spatio-temporal patterns of land-use changes in the Zayandehrud river basin.Therefore, in the present research, land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were investigated and future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Methodology: In this research, land-use changes modeling was performed in three time periods 1996 to 2013 (17-year period), 2013 to 2018 (5-year period), and 2018 to 2030 and 2050. The purpose of modeling is to determine the capabilities of the Markov chain model and integrate it with cellular automation to detect land-use changes. The images were classified into 4 classes: agriculture and gardens, built-up (urban areas, airport, and road), industrial towns, and other land uses (abandoned lands and fallow, rangeland, water areas). Finally, land-use changes modeling was performed in the period 1996 to 2050 (54-year period). The steps of the research method are as follows:Step 1: Pre-processing of satellite images: Radiometric correction was applied to the images. Next, the images were processed using the FLAASH module in ENVI5.3 software to reduce atmospheric interference. Then, by synthesizing the name and wavelength of the bands, image storage, mosaic, and mask clipping, a preprocessed remote sensing image was generated. Finally, the preprocessed remote sensing image was obtained.Step 2: Processing satellite images: Types of land use images in the area in ENVI 5.3 were extracted using visual interpretation and supervised classification methods. Land use classification algorithms were used to estimate the three main land-use classes (agriculture, urban, and industrial development). The principal component analysis method was performed on the images and was identified agricultural by high resolution. Land use classification for 1996, 2013, and 2018 was done with a classification approach based on the decision tree. To classify the images, maximum likelihood methods, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines were used. The final classification was performed using decision tree analysis. Finally, prediction of land-use changes was performed on images by performing the CA_Markov analysis in TerrSet software.Step 3: Post-processing of satellite images: Using Google Earth and cross-tab analysis, TerrSet software evaluated the accuracy of classifying land-use thematic maps. Using the existing database, a validation process was performed to ensure the accuracy of the model in predicting land-use changes for the forecasted 2018 map. The accuracy of the simulated model of land-use change in 2018 was validated and then compared with the actual map of the same year. The validation process was performed by generating the kappa coefficient. Discussion: In this study, land-use changes in the Zayandehrood basin were identified and investigated. The results showed that land-use changes are in the form of urban development and reduction of agricultural land use. Such changes have occurred in two distinct stages. First, urban land expansion has prevailed since 2013, with a direct impact on declining vegetation as a result of the conversion of agricultural land to other land uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. Because in 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. Future scenarios based on the CA-Markov model provide valuable information about future land use and land cover changes in the study area. This study can identify land-use changes in different periods and depict the increase or decrease of important land uses in the region. According to the study of Motlagh et al. (2020), land-use changes were studied based on three possible scenarios (i.e. the current trend of land use growth, conservation of agricultural lands, and urban development forecast). Future scenarios for 2030 and 2050 estimate that there will be a significant reduction in vegetation and agricultural lands and orchards and continued urban and industrial development in areas along the Zayandehrood basin. Expansion of the agricultural sector along with the conservation of natural resources is not only one of the most important challenges of sustainable development in the Zayandehrud basin but is also essential for future strategic land use plans. Compilation of instructions for sustainable agricultural development can be a way to strike a balance between nature conservation and economic development in the region. Conclusion: In summary, this study demonstrates how the proposed CA-Markov model is used to better simulate land use complex and dynamic changes over time. Of all the land-use changes, the most worrying is the situation in the region for agricultural lands. If the current trend of land use continues, we estimate that by 2050, its area will be halved, and such changes in the landscape will undoubtedly change the entire ecosystem of the basin, emphasizing that the negative effects on the vegetation of the basin have a direct impact on the economic sector of the region because maintaining the quality of the environment of the Zayandehrood river basin is essential for ecotourism. Therefore, the management and planning of the basin are highly recommended to preserve its unique ecosystem, as well as to protect the vegetation in the area. The methods and results of this study will be useful for policymakers and urban planners for precise planning of the region to be able to manage the city using farms and conserving water resources and urban infrastructure development planning for environmentally sustainable development. Keywords: Land-Use Changes, Cellular Automation, the Markov Chain, Zayandehrud River Basin. 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