As sustainability challenges intensify globally, evaluating the environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become increasingly important. Using panel data from 176 countries spanning 2003-2022, this study examines the influence of BRI on environmental sustainability using ecological footprint per capita (lnEF) as a comprehensive indicator and difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology. BRI participation leads to a 5 per cent increase in the lnEF among partner countries. Dual-channel analysis shows that renewable energy consumption mitigates ecological pressure, whereas information and communication technology development partially mediates the effects of BRI participation and environmental outcomes. Pronounced heterogeneity effects were observed for (i) countries joining between 2016 and 2019 (in Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa), and (ii) countries in upper-middle- and high-income groups. Propensity score matching-DiD and robustness checks showed consistent findings. This study offers policy recommendations that emphasize environmental assessments, green technology support and international cooperation on sustainability.
Abstract The study investigates the effect of extreme heat on consumption inequality in India from 2014 to 2022. To capture local geographical and climatic diversity, the study examines the effect at the district level. We calculated a range of indices to measure extreme heat, including heatwaves, hot days and heat stress. We provided empirical evidence on the effect of extreme heat on inequality using two-way fixed-effects and generalised method of moments, and causal evidence using double machine learning. Results reveal that extreme heat increases inequality. Districts with high-temperature anomalies adapt to extreme heat, whereas those with low-temperature anomalies experience greater adverse effects. The study explores the agricultural channel and finds that districts with high agricultural intensity exhibit greater adaptation to extreme heat, whereas low-agricultural-intensity districts experience increased inequality due to extreme heat. Classifying districts by temperature anomalies and agricultural intensity is crucial for policies aimed at mitigating the impacts of extreme heat.
The link between climate change and gender is intricate, particularly in developing countries, where women are disproportionately affected due to lower adaptive capacity and economic opportunities. This study investigates the gendered economic impacts of climate change in South Africa using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Results reveal that climate-induced shocks reduce productivity, labour demand and economic growth, leading to higher prices and reduced purchasing power. Female-headed households face greater poverty impacts than their male counterparts. These findings highlight the need for gender-responsive social protection policies that support women in vulnerable sectors such as agriculture and tourism. Targeted interventions such as combining compensatory transfers with investments in education, skills development and access to resilient livelihoods are essential to mitigate gender inequality and strengthen women's economic resilience in the face of climate change.
Climate change impacts are expected to be unevenly distributed across locations and population groups. However, to date, evidence on the effects of warming on within-country inequality remains limited. In this paper, we test the relationship between gradual warming (i.e., climate change) and long-run distributional dynamics within countries, using a global panel dataset over the period 1955-2015. We find that warming increases overall income inequality, as well as the concentration of income at the top of the income distribution. We also show that these effects persist over time. We complement our main findings with an exploratory analysis of the relationship between warming and several additional dimensions of inequality, including the concentration of wealth, inequality in the spatial distribution of economic activity within countries, and measures of inequality in life expectancy. Overall, our analysis presents a rich picture of the far-reaching distributional effects of global warming.
We develop a health demand model informed by Grossman's theoretical framework, examining how air pollution governance (APG) affects health and income inequality. Analysis of the China Health and Nutrition Survey data reveals that APG has markedly enhanced the health status of local residents, consequently mitigating regional income inequality. For every doubling of air pollution control, the likelihood of residents falling ill diminishes by 40.3 per cent; in contrast to regions with inadequate APG, the income inequality coefficient in regions with robust APG declines by approximately 6.2 per cent. An in-depth examination of the welfare implications of APG, both theoretically and empirically, reveals that such governance enhances the 'production possibility frontier' for the population, thereby augmenting individual utility.
This study examines the association between air pollution exposure and health using a representative survey sample from Siddharthanagar municipality of Nepal. Our data on household characteristics, spatial locations and individual lung function allow us to understand heterogeneity in exposure and respiratory health. We examine exposure differential through three potential mechanisms - occupation, residence and exposure avoidance. We employ a simultaneous equations model to account for the endogenous choice of avoidance and spatial error models to control for the spatial spillover of health outcomes. We find that outdoor workers and those residing near brick kilns have lower lung function. Exposure avoidance positively correlates with lung function. Exposure avoidance, however, is low among marginalized outdoor workers and individuals residing in polluted areas, further exacerbating the exposure gap among socioeconomic subgroups. The study advances the case of environmental inequity through the 'triple jeopardy' of low socioeconomic status, exposure differences and poor health.
We explore the effectiveness of regulatory inspections in promoting compliance with environmental protection standards and the variations influenced by institutional trust and corruption. We utilize a nationally representative dataset of manufacturing micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Zimbabwe using the Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjusting estimation method. We find that, first, regulatory inspections promote MSMEs' compliance with environmental protection standards. Second, the impact of regulatory inspections on compliance is stronger when MSME owners have trust in regulatory institutions compared to when they do not. Third, regardless of entrepreneurs' trust levels in institutions, the possibility of bribing regulatory agency officers dilutes the effectiveness of regulatory inspections in fostering compliance. Finally, in cases where entrepreneurs lack trust in institutions, regulatory inspections have no statistically significant effect on compliance for corrupt entrepreneurs.
This study investigates the causal impact of temperature on labour productivity within Indonesia's household-based enterprises. We combine rich, household-based data on micro and small enterprises from the Indonesian Family Life Survey with historical temperature data to estimate the effect of temperature on labour productivity, which we measure as revenue and revenue per worker. Our empirical strategy leverages plausibly exogenous, time-varying temperature fluctuations within specific geographic areas. The findings reveal a significant negative relationship: a 1 degrees C increase in the 12-month average temperature deviation is associated with a 14 per cent reduction in enterprise revenue and a 21 per cent decrease in revenue per worker. Furthermore, we find that the effect of temperature on labour productivity follows an inverted U-shape and disproportionately impacts smaller businesses. Our study highlights the vulnerability of the informal sector to rising temperatures and underscores the urgent need for targeted policies aimed at enhancing the climate resilience of household-based enterprises.
We surveyed economics and finance professionals on the transition to a low-carbon economy, assessing risks, opportunities and stakeholder responsibilities. Findings reveal that respondents view the transition as an opportunity for the financial sector, with a modest increase in banking risks. Most respondents agreed that governments hold the primary responsibility for climate mitigation policies, with carbon tax as the favoured solution. Additionally, respondents perceived the COVID-19 pandemic to have a neutral or positive impact on the transition, while the Ukraine war to have a strong negative impact. Notably, opinions differ based on environmental consciousness and professional roles, with environmentally conscious individuals expressing more optimism.
Using the synthetic difference-in-differences method, this study evaluates the comprehensive effects of the 'coal-to-gas' policy in China following its complete implementation in 2017. We propose four channels through which the policy could affect the air quality in untreated cities. The findings reveal a significant decrease in air pollution levels, as measured by PM10, in both the treated and untreated areas. However, the net spillover effect in the treated and untreated areas exhibits heterogeneous spatial distribution patterns due to different mechanisms. These differences could be related to the political economy and natural geography of China.
This study treats the selection of land conservation and intensive use model counties as a quasi-natural experiment. Using Chinese county-level panel data, we evaluate the multidimensional impacts of the land conservation and intensive use policy (LCIUP). We find that LCIUP reduced PM2.5 concentrations in counties while simultaneously lowering per capita GDP, exerting a positive effect on environmental quality but a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth, showing a distinct environment-economy asymmetry. LCIUP restricts industrial land supply and curbs the entry of polluting enterprises, but fails to facilitate industrial transformation and upgrading. Counties reliant on secondary industries face significant industrial transformation lock-in challenges, while those with substantial market potential can achieve dual economic and environmental goals. Green finance policies effectively complement LCIUP to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, whereas technological innovation and talent attraction policies currently lack such synergy. Cost-benefit analysis confirms that LCIUP's marginal environmental benefits outweigh economic losses.
In the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMed) region, the transition to low-carbon power must be achieved while ensuring security of supply, affordability and development. Using the Just and Sustainable Energy Transition framework and a neo-institutional lens, we analysed 470 study-country-family observations (2000-2025) across 11 jurisdictions and 7 instrument families to create an institutional mechanism map. Three regularities stand out. Systems performance signals dominate in nine countries, primarily through time-differentiated pricing, settlement discipline and codified connection, queuing and curtailment rules. Financing and integration risks are often addressed together where auctions, revenue-support schemes, published access terms and standardised long-term contracts coexist with system rules. Equity-related signals arise where prosumer compensation and reconciliation rules influence participation and cost sharing at the retail margin. These patterns provide an interpretive basis for sequencing constraint-led reforms in SEMed power systems that target binding risks while respecting fiscal and distributional constraints.
We estimate the causal effects of local officials' growth preferences on air pollution. Leveraging the unprecedented and uneven economic shocks caused by COVID-19, which resulted in substantial changes in gross domestic product growth rankings, we analyse variations in growth preferences. Our findings reveal that a 10-unit change in growth rankings leads to significant increases in Air Quality Index and ambient pollutant concentrations. Key predictors of this increased pollution include factors sensitive to governmental influence, such as fixed investments, industrial activities and registration requirements for polluting companies. Finally, we characterize the cautious behaviours of local officials in balancing economic and environmental objectives within China's context of multiple, yet unequally weighted, tasks. Our study illuminates how growth preferences contribute to environmental consequences and underscores the strategic responses with political motivations to meet dual conflicting targets set by higher authorities.
The Kyoto Protocol and the subsequent Doha Amendment represent crucial milestones in international environmental efforts to establish binding emission reduction targets for the participating members. Many studies have examined the effects of the former, but not many the latter, on emissions reduction; however, their impact is inconclusive. One major reason may be due to the heterogeneous issue arising from the fact that countries ratified and implemented those agreements at different times. This study is the first to employ the staggered difference-in-difference method to analyse the two agreements within a unified framework. We empirically found that ratifying the Kyoto Protocol has significantly contributed to a decrease in global carbon dioxide emissions, although the impacts of the Doha Amendment are not statistically clear, underscoring the substantial role those agreements can play in protecting the global environment. Our findings are robust across several techniques, including the imputation estimator and the average group-time treatment approach.
Energy-efficient biomass cookstoves and small solar systems play an important role in the transition to clean energy. Despite their affordability and scalability, uptake remains low among households in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines whether household-level behavioural factors help explain this under-adoption. Drawing on data from real-purchase offers in rural Rwanda and Senegal, we analyse how willingness to pay for the technologies varies with risk aversion, innovation resistance, time preferences and beliefs. These traits explain part of the variation in purchase decisions, though effects are generally moderate. The findings improve our understanding of consumer behaviour with regard to innovative consumer goods at the base of the pyramid and inform policy and market strategies of suppliers entering these markets. We conclude by recommending that behavioural approaches be applied conservatively and only in conjunction with efforts to improve affordability and access.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) has been increasingly adopted in past years. This study provides empirical analysis using a county-level dataset that supported PV poverty alleviation projects (PPAPs) in rural China over 2008-2019 and finds that the rural per capita income of counties participating in PPAPs on average increased by 5 per cent compared to that of their counterparts. The effect is larger in more economically developed areas, those with abundant sunlight hours and in counties where centralized PV predominates. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that PPAPs can yield a net benefit of 57,690 yuan over their life cycle per rural household, with the ratio of household annual income growth to government fiscal expenditure ranging from 1.2 to 1.6. PPAPs are found to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 22 million tons annually, accounting for 0.4 per cent of China's carbon emissions reduction in 2020. Our results hold important implications for other countries working to alleviate poverty and reduce carbon emissions.
Marine protected areas (MPAs) have proliferated to protect marine ecosystems and manage unsustainable fishing, but their outcomes vary by economic and governance contexts. Drawing on a panel dataset spanning 1995-2021 and employing the Pressure-State-Response framework, this study analyses how MPA coverage is associated with overexploited fish stocks and examines Official Development Assistance (ODA). Results show MPAs in high-income countries are associated with lower overexploited catch rates, reflecting robust governance. In low-income nations, however, limited capacity is often linked to 'paper parks' with negligible impact. Multi-purpose ODA - supporting sustainability goals - appears more effective than single-purpose ODA and is associated with better conservation outcomes. Integrating MPAs with fisheries management, supported by international assistance for enforcement, appears important for bridging disparities in effectiveness. By highlighting the interplay among economic conditions, governance and funding, this study offers higher-level insights into factors that shape MPA effectiveness, contributing to broader policy discussions on marine conservation.
Market-based instruments are increasingly incorporated into developing countries' environmental regulation, which has historically been dominated by command-and-control (CAC). To discover whether this shift can enhance efficiency, the two policy instruments are compared in the context of agricultural fire regulation. We unveil optimal policy principles, such as incentivizing compliance proportionally to non-compliance's net benefit. A simulation based on data from Brazilian Amazon municipalities accounts for ambiguous land tenure, indirect deforestation and non-additionality. The results reveal that CAC, when perfectly sanctioned, is more efficient than market-based policy. Such primacy is exacerbated in the realistic case where sanctions are likely to be cancelled on appeal to the judicial power and legally limited in size, because of the opportunities to better address adverse selection and to generate revenue with fines. Therefore, we show that market-based policy is not necessarily superior to CAC and that imperfect sanctioning does not inevitably lead to inefficiency.
City-county consolidation is a prevalent practice observed worldwide, serving as a common strategy adopted by policymakers to effectively respond to the development requirements of large metropolises. Existing literature has extensively explored the effects arising from this particular policy. Nevertheless, how consolidation affects energy efficiency in consolidated regions is rarely examined. Based on the large-scale city-county consolidation reform from 2000 to 2017 in China, our study explores the causal implications of this policy on energy efficiency at the county level through the application of a staggered difference-in-difference method. Our outcomes demonstrate that a consolidation reform is tied to a statistically significant reduction in energy efficiency of consolidated counties relative to their non-consolidated counterparts. We provide additional evidence that the rise in energy usage, the relocation of low-tech and energy-intensive industries, and the intensification of economic agglomeration are potential contributors to the decrease in energy efficiency.
Even though the incidence of conflicts between Fulani nomadic pastoralists and sedentary communities in Nigeria has risen significantly in the last decade, there is a notable lack of research examining how these conflicts influence distrust towards members of the Fulani ethnic group and Muslims. Using novel survey data from Kaduna, the state with the third-highest incidence of pastoral conflict in Nigeria, this study addresses that gap. Regression analyses show that exposure to pastoral conflict increases distrust towards the Fulani and Muslims. This suggests a contagion effect whereby the Fulani are conflated with the broader Muslim population, due to the Muslim identity of nomadic Fulani pastoralists. Disaggregating the data by religious affiliation reveals a pattern: conflict exposure raises distrust only among Muslim respondents, while effects are statistically insignificant among Christians. Among Muslims, the positive effect suggests that pastoral conflict erodes in-group cohesion. The null effect among Christians may reflect the way in which pastoral conflicts align with pre-existing religious fault lines.
