According to Victor Fuchs(1968),the cyclical fluctuations in output and employment in the industrial sector are larger than those in the service sector.This implies that as the proportion of the service sector increases,the cyclical fluctuations of the overall economy will tend to decrease,which has been confirmed by the performance of the real economy.Why does the growth of the service sector lead to a reduction in economic fluctuations?This paper intends to explore this issue from the perspective of production networks. Theoretically,we propose a general equilibrium model with a production network to understand the mechanism by which the growth of the service sector affects economic fluctuations,and develop two interrelated theoretical hypotheses.First,when the elasticities of substitution between primary inputs and intermediate inputs are greater than those between different intermediate inputs,lower sparsity of production networks will lead to smaller economic fluctuations.Second,a rising proportion of the service sector will cause declining sparsity of production networks,via an increase in the shares of primary inputs and final consumption,with the former reflecting the growing role of the service sector as a user of pri-mary inputs and the latter reflecting the increased role of the service sector as a provider of final goods. Empirically,we employ nearly 30 years of global input-output data to conduct empirical tests based on a simultane-ous equation econometric model.The benchmark regression results show that a 10％increase in the proportions of pri-mary inputs and final consumption in the service sector will reduce production network sparsity by 0.42％-1.34％,while a 10％reduction in production network sparsity will result in a decrease of 0.79-1.56 units in economic fluctuations.This suggests that the growth of the service sector with rises in the proportions of primary inputs and final consumption can lower production network linkage sparsity,and thus iron out economic fluctuations.This basic conclusion remains valid after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests.A counterfactual analysis for China indicates that if the service sector share,intermediate input share,and service productivity volatility in China are replaced with those in the USA,re-spectively,China's aggregate economic fluctuations would experience varying degrees of decrease.However,changing the service sector share and the Intermed,ate input share contribute more(69.8％and 73.6％). This study has significant policy implications.In China,the current service sector share in the national economy is significantly lower than that of developed market economies,which not only hinders the optimization and upgrading of economic and industrial structures but also constrains the further development of Chinese overall economy.As this re-search shows,the backwardness of the service sector also leads to an increase in the sparsity of production networks,fur-ther resulting in larger economic fluctuations.Substantial economic fluctuations not only raise the cost of structural ad-justments and worsen expectations for sustainable economic growth but also generate global spillover effects through ex-ternal economic and trade channels,thus exacerbating the external development environment.Conversely,we can reduce the sparsity of production networks and smooth out significant economic fluctuations by increasing the primary input share(or employment)and the final consumption share of the service sector.Therefore,it is both urgent and strategically profound to take active measures to promote the comprehensive development of the service sector. First,we should properly handle the relationship among economic growth,structural changes,and economic fluctua-tions.It is crucial to continuously optimize the structure and reduce economic fluctuations in the process of economic de-velopment and growth. Second,we should take effective measures to promote the healthy,efficient,and sustained development of the ser-vice sector.These include improving the institutional mechanisms of the service sector,breaking administrative monopo-lies,fostering market competition,balancing the development of different service sectors,as well as adapting to the global trend of service liberalization,and becoming a contributor to multilateral rules in service trade. Third,we should correctly deal with the relationship between the service sector and other sectors,especially the manufacturing sector.It is necessary to improve the development quality and efficiency of the service sector,so as to bet-ter serve the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector and shape a congenial development pattern,which can ultimately enhance the resilience and security level of the industrial and supply chains. Lastly,we should leverage the framework or perspective of economic networks to comprehend the impact of the growth of the service sector on economic fluctuations.It is imperative to contextualize the development of the service sec-tor within the broader framework of overall economic development both domestically and internationally,rather than con-sidering it in isolation.The economic networks should not be confined to a single country but extend their reach on a global scale.Only in this way can domestic service enterprises grow bigger and get stronger to consolidate the micro foundation of the service sector development.
Expanding consumer demand is the key link to realize the domestic big cycle. According to WDI data calculated by the World Bank, from 2005 to 2020, the consumption rate of Chinese residents has always been between 34%-39%, with an average of 37.10%, which is far lower than the average level of 58.73% in high-income countries during the same period, and even lower than the average level of 77.64% in low-income countries. It is not difficult to understand that an important reason for the low consumption rate of Chinese residents is the high savings rate in China.Generally speaking, a sound social pension system can significantly reduce people’s preventive savings. However, the experiences of some countries are just the opposite. Taking Japan as an example, although Japan has a more complete pension system than most countries, its savings rate has been rising in recent years. The reason for this is related to Japan’s increasingly severe population aging. At present, China is also facing an increasingly serious problem of population aging, and the social pension system is not yet perfect in developed countries such as Japan. How to provide for the elderly in the future will become a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the heads of the Chinese people. Based on the analysis of the latest national policies and public opinion survey results, this article concludes that in the context of population aging, it is difficult for China to solve the pension problem in the future by relying solely on social pension or improving a single pension mode that relies on family pension. Building a pension mode that promotes and increasingly integrates family pension and social pension may be the best choice for China. Based on the above analysis, this article proposes the following research topics: How does the integration of family and social pension mode affect the savings rate of Chinese residents? What is the mechanism? What kind of pension system should China establish to more effectively reduce the resident savings rate?The research finds that:（1） improving the social pension system is conducive to reducing the savings rate of residents, but in the long run, due to the existence of aging population, its impact on the decline in the savings rate of residents is limited; In contrast, the integration of family pension and social pension can more effectively reduce the savings rate of residents.（2） The mechanism behind the above conclusions is that, along with the return of family pension mode and the integration of the two pension mode, children’s fertility desire increases, so their intergenerational transfer income to their parents can be maintained for a long time, which is conducive to reducing the household savings rate.（3） Empirical analysis confirms the above conclusions, and it is also found that families with more elderly people have a higher fertility rate of their children. This is due to the fact that elderly people help their children care for them, reducing the time cost of raising their children, and therefore, family pension mode are more effective in reducing the savings rate.The contributions of this article are mainly manifested in the following two aspects:（1） Based on the background of population aging, this article combines the traditional Chinese family pension mode of “raising children to prevent aging” and the social pension mode into the classic OLG model, and establishes an OLG expansion model for the impact of the integration of family pension mode and social pension mode on the savings rate.（2） This article demonstrates why the role of social pension mode in reducing the savings rate of residents is limited in the context of population aging, while the return of family pension mode and the integration of family pension mode and social pension mode are a more sustainable pension system and more effective in reducing the savings rate. It can be said that this paper provides a new perspective for the establishment of a more sustainable pension system.
本文为研究政府间转移支付提供了一个可拓展的一般性理论框架.在公共支出存在外部性、地区对于公共品需求具有异质性偏好的设定下,本文证明中央对地方一般性转移支付是公共支出的函数,其边际量大小由四个因素决定,分别是支出对转移支付的弹性、公共支出在地区间的分布、中央对公共支出均等化的偏好,以及地区公共支出的外部性大小.结合该理论框架,本文进一步使用中国2019年的县级财政数据进行了数值分析,结果表明最优边际转移支付呈现U型且主要为负,其形状主要由公共支出均等化偏好和外部性决定.通过与现实政策对比,本文认为应进一步增强地区间基本公共服务均等化的政策倾斜力度.
近年来,随着可持续发展意识的增强,企业的ESG表现逐渐受到了投资者的广泛关注,并对企业长期经营产生持续影响.在新发展阶段,ESG表现能否促进企业创新值得深入研究.论文基于利益相关者理论分析了 ESG表现对企业创新可能的影响及机制,利用2009-2020年A股上市公司的专利数据,实证检验了企业ESG表现的创新效应.研究表明:ESG表现可以显著提高企业创新产出,这一促进作用在大型企业和国有企业中更为显著;机制分析发现,ESG表现主要通过缓解融资约束、提高员工创新效率和风险承担水平等机制促进企业创新.进一步研究发现:ESG表现不仅提高企业创新产出数量,还有助于提升创新质量;但随着ESG评级不确定性程度提高,ESG表现对企业创新水平的促进作用相对减弱.为此,应进一步鼓励企业加强ESG建设,加快构建ESG信息标准化和强制披露制度,提高企业ESG信息披露质量,推动企业创新,助力企业高质量发展.
现代财税体制是同社会主义市场经济和现代国家治理相匹配的财税体制形态,其本质是中国式现代化财税体制.作为国家治理体系中具有基础性和支撑性意义的组成部分,它是优化资源配置、维护市场统一、促进社会公平和实现国家长治久安的制度保障.其基本标志,就是匹配现代国家治理要求,让财政成为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,让财税体制成为国家治理体系的基础性和支撑性要素.其基本特征,就是"公共性+非营利性+规范性+基础性+支撑性".只有契合这一基本标志且同时具备这五个基本特征的财税体制形态,才能称得上现代财税体制.说到底,建立现代财税体制是朝向实现财税治理体系和治理能力现代化、全面建设社会主义现代化国家的宏伟目标而去的.
