Assessing the data quality of the International Comparison Program(ICP)is a research topic of interest to the World Bank's ICP Technical Advisory Group(TAG),and the study of Purchasing Power Parity(PPP)aggregation methods from the perspective of bias is one of key research directions.This paper proposes a theoretical framework and two theorems to explain the source of bias of two types of PPP aggregation methods,and chooses the shortest path method(SP)as a reference point to measure the bias of 16 PPP aggregation methods,and examines whether the currently used Gini-Elteto-Koves-Szulc(GEKS)method by the Asia-Pacific region has measure advantage from the perspective of China.It finds that the two theorems explaining the substitution bias can be used to clarify that the bias of both types of PPP aggregation methods is derived from the substitution bias.The bias of the chain methods is lower than that of the average price method.Compared with the minimum distance method(MD)and the additive minimum distance method(AMD),the GEKS method does not have measure advantage.The GEKS method chosen by the Asia-Pacific region is not optimal for China.This paper provides a new perspective for understanding and measuring the bias of PPP aggregation methods,and useful references for clarifying the right direction for the development of PPP aggregation methods,for international organizations,such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,to choose more reasonable PPP aggregation methods,and for correctly understanding and improving the quality of ICP data.
作为信息通信技术核心的互联网能否显著提高企业的全要素生产率,在国际上一直存在争论.本文试图对我国是否存在生产率悖论做进一步研判,综合利用正则法则、逻辑判断、多指标协助等方法,针对企业网址、企业邮箱、企业ID等指标进行高精度修复,获得高质量的互联网数据;通过创造性采用跨省人口迁移数据,构建了相对有效的工具变量;综合运用交叉识别、Olley-Pakes、Levinsohn-Petrin、面板工具变量组、间接倾向得分匹配、直接处理效应等方法,最终得出稳健结论.研究表明,我国整体上不存在生产率悖论,在对一些因素进行控制之后,互联网对我国制造企业至少"净"贡献了 10％的全要素生产率增长.
Based on the connotation and characteristics of economic circulation in the new development pattern,this paper constructs an analytical framework to understand the dual circulation,measures China’s supply-side and demand-side dual circulation from the perspective of inter-enterprise intermediate product supply circulation and demand circulation for enterprises’final products,and explores China’s steady economic growth from the perspective of dual circulation through the structural decomposition analysis （SDA） method.It is found that China’s economic development presents a significant feature of the domestic circulation as the main body （accounting for more than 74%）.In the supply side dual circulation,the proportion of circulation between domestic-funded enterprises and between domestic-funded and foreign-funded enterprises is rising,while the proportion of circulation between domestic and foreign enterprises is declining but still plays an important role in China’s economic development.In the demand side dual circulation,the importance of foreign demand for final products of foreign enterprises to economic development is second only to China’s demand for final products of domestic-funded enterprises.SDA results show that domestic circulation plays a stabilizing role in economic growth,and the contribution of domestic circulation effect to China’s economic growth has always been maintained at more than 76%,especially the contribution of China’s demand for final products of domestic-funded enterprises on the demand side and the circulation between domestic-funded enterprises on the supply side.Like domestic-funded enterprises,foreign-funded enterprises also play an important role in promoting the domestic and foreign economic circulation,as the circulation between domestic-funded and foreign-funded enterprises not only drives China’s economic growth,but also is the key factor to promoting China’s steady economic growth.The research of this paper not only enriches the understanding of building a new development pattern,but also provides a new perspective on explaining China’s steady economic growth.
如何有效促进经济稳中求进并严密防范各种风险,实现稳增长和防风险的长期均衡以助力构建新发展格局,是现阶段政策部门关注的重点所在.本文在一个包含多部门的动态随机一般均衡模型中纳入家庭住房抵押借款摩擦和银行贷款摩擦,深入探讨非常规财政政策和宏观审慎政策对房地产市场、金融市场以及宏观经济运行的调控效果,并分别考察了非常规财政政策、信贷类宏观审慎政策及其二者协同调控的福利效应.研究发现,非常规财政政策能够通过降低利差维护金融稳定,但会产生道德风险和效率成本问题;宏观审慎政策能够有效发挥"抑房价"并弱化住房贷款与非住房贷款之间挤出效应的作用,但对社会福利的影响呈"倒U"型特征.财政政策-宏观审慎政策协同调控能够有效引导信贷资金流向实体部门并缓解企业"融资难、融资贵"困境,对于促进我国经济与金融的稳定、健康发展具有重要作用.
2008年国际金融危机以来,影子银行无序发展造成金融体系"脱实向虚"问题愈发严重,传统信贷渠道受阻,社会融资出现结构性失衡.对此,中国人民银行强化影子银行监管并创设多种结构性货币政策工具,在遏制影子银行无序发展的同时定向支持实体经济扩大信贷融资,双管齐下破解金融"脱实向虚"问题.本文将结构性货币政策与影子银行宏观审慎监管纳入双支柱调控框架,分析双支柱调控框架的政策效应与可行的政策搭配.研究发现,传统的信贷监管与总量货币政策容易诱发监管套利行为,难以实现精准调控.相较而言,结构性货币政策可以定向降低银行信贷资金成本,疏通信贷渠道,推动金融"向实";影子银行宏观审慎政策可以限制影子银行盲目扩张,促进金融"脱虚".进一步研究表明,两类政策具有叠加效应,可以形成较好的政策合力.此外,有效识别影子银行底层资产风险可以通过风险渠道抑制影子银行逆周期扩张,在货币政策紧缩阶段达成更好的政策效果.本文研究为双支柱相关政策边界拓展与政策协调搭配提供了新的分析思路与建议.
