近期的全球冲突凸显了以外汇储备为支撑的资本账户 自由兑换的脆弱性和风险.当前人民币在岸和离岸金融体系的发展水平有限、在岸金融体系开放程度不高,较难满足中国经济双循环下多样和全球化的金融需求,以及全球对人民币作为支付和储备货币不断增长的需求.在资本账户不宜全面开放的国际环境下,中国可以构建一个高水平、全开放、包含境内和境外两部分的人民币离岸金融体系来满足这些需求,利用境内外力量共同推动该体系的市场建设,从而风险更可控地推进资本账户开放.这一体系的境内部分因受中国管辖,可建立全开放和全球最佳实践的金融基础设施和监管体系,以便于中国人民银行对离岸人民币进行流动性和金融稳定性调控,保证人民币的全球定价权.主动构建境内人民币离岸金融体系是中国资本账户不宜全面开放时的权宜之计,离岸和在岸需进行风险隔离,并通过离岸和在岸的良性互动、统筹协调和逐渐融合,最终实现中国整个金融体系全面和高水平的开放.

In recent years, there have been sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates in China’s financial markets, posing challenges to the implementation of monetary policies and the stability of financial markets. There was a similar phenomenon in LIBOR rates of major currencies during the financial crisis. After the financial crisis, the interest rate corridor” gradually became a new trend of monetary policies, and the central bank of China gradually introduced a similar mechanism to implement monetary policies. This paper sets up a three-phase model of the inter-bank market, expanding the traditional analytical framework into a peer-to-peer market with OTC market attributes. This approach enables the model of this paper to characterize the heterogeneous characteristics of the bank’s liquidity, and distinguish between banks which need interest rate corridors and those which have no need of the corridors, so that the unique mechanism that interest rate corridors affect market liquidity can be reflected. The establishment of the interest rate corridor mechanism will affect the liquidity position of commercial banks by affecting the expected liquidity management costs and benefits of commercial banks. Thus, the inter-bank offered rate can be impacted and it will be stable within interest rate corridors. In order to highlight the unique mechanism of the interest rate corridor mechanism, this paper first analyzes the impact of open market operations with characteristics of quantitative regulation on market interest rates, and demonstrates the advantages and disadvantages of the interest rate corridor mechanism through comparison. The theoretical analysis shows that open market operations and interest rate corridors have their own advantages and disadvantages in regulating interest rate fluctuations. First, open market operations regulate interest rate volatility by regulating the liquidity of the whole interbank market. Interest rate corridors only need to adjust the liquidity of part of the banks to regulate interest rate fluctuations, so interest rate corridors affect market activities from the margin, and the regulation has less disturbance to the market. Second, in terms of regulating short-term interest rates, both the expected open market operations and interest rate corridor adjustments will be constrained by the liquidity substitution effect”. Because of the liquidity substitution effect, the adjustment of open market operations may be completely offset, but that of interest rate corridors cannot be. In terms of stabilizing interest rates, open market operations rely on the judgment of the central bank, while interest rate corridors can be more independently implemented. Finally, under the interest rate corridor mechanism, a tight mortgage policy may cause the inter-bank offered rate to break through the interest rate corridor ceiling. However, the central bank can adjust the mortgage policy, using the camera selection strategy and the cooperation with macro-prudential management, which can respectively achieve different purposes for post-hoc response and pre-existing prevention.

For over 30 years of reform and opening-up,our country has obtained the remarkable economic growth.But at the same time,it also faced with the transformation of economic development patterns.In the process of transformation of economic development patterns encountered many conditionality factors often can be attributed to the policy environment.Therefore,the policy environment is a major obstacle to hinder the economic development mode shift.Reform policy environment,however,there is no "one-pace-reaches-the designated-position",we must invite policy environment internal analysis,fully considering the vested interests of resistance and the people's support.

目前我国电力供应长期处于紧张状态,需求大于供给的矛盾将长期存在,需求预测管理将有助于缓解供需矛盾。分析影响电力需求的主要经济因素,建立经济模型,对分析和预测电力需求的增长具有现实的意义。采用了传统的计量分析方法,但是由于因素选取得当所以得到了难得的精度,对预测也具有现实意义。