We study whether access to corporate environmental information prompts public avoidance behavior. We focus on the disclosure policy change in the US fracking industry, where the use of chemicals in operations may impact local water quality, but the chemical information was previously concealed from the public. Following the chemical disclosure mandates by states, we document a 12% increase in defensive spending (bottled water sales) in fracking counties. These results are consistent with the notion that mandatory environmental disclosure alters the public's perception of health risk exposure and prompts avoidance behavior. The behavioral change is more pronounced in counties where operators frequently use toxic chemicals or hide chemicals as trade secrets. Media coverage and information search are key drivers triggering avoidance behavior. We observe heterogeneity in public response based on demographic characteristics such as at-risk populations, risk tolerance, and employment in extraction industries. We also provide suggestive evidence that regulators' effort in environmental management can crowd out the public's need for avoidance behavior. Taken together, our findings highlight the societal benefits of environmental disclosure mandates.

近20年我国金融市场实践了直接入市和互联互通两种对外开放模式,互联互通模式表现出一定的"后发优势".两种模式的发展趋势与国际经验有所不同,这是由我国特定国情和政策决定的.本文基于对制度型开放内涵和国际实践的剖析,构建一套评价体系对两种模式进行比较分析并发现,虽然互联互通模式的市场吸引力更强,但直接入市模式更有利于提升我国金融服务能力和风险防控水平.此外,本文勾勒出我国金融市场制度型开放的政策目标、发展原则和具体路径,认为金融市场制度型开放应以统筹发展和安全为原则,以直接入市模式为主、互联互通模式为辅,以全市场开放为主、管道式开放为辅.未来,我国应加快提升直接入市便利化程度,推动制度规则统一,鼓励境内机构和金融基础设施为全球人民币资产多元化国际交易需求提供服务,抓住战略窗口期开展试点,以推动金融市场向制度型开放转变,服务于中国式现代化.

This paper studies whether firms shift some pollution from regulated reporting facilities to their non-reporting facilities after the US Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). Using remotely sensed satellite data, I find that, after the disclosure mandate, PM 2.5 concentration dropped by 6% in areas with a large number of reporting facilities, but also increased by a similar level in areas with predominantly non-reporting facilities owned by GHGRP-exposed firms. My findings remain robust after considering other major PM sources, such as wildfires and vehicle emissions. In cross-sectional analyses, I document that the increase in pollution is more pronounced in counties with weaker regulatory constraints on pollution shifting and low socioeconomic communities. Finally, I provide some evidence for the broad societal impact of pollution shifting. Overall, pollution shifting increases local employment in the affected polluting sectors but does not deteriorate the death rate from respiratory diseases. This paper provides the first large-scale evidence of the effect of GHGRP on firms' polluting activities.

衍生品基本功能是规避风险.与封闭经济体相比,开放经济体居民和非居民规避风险的需求更加丰富,需要完善发达的衍生品市场予以支持.通过跨国和跨币种比较发现,我国衍生品的国际地位远低于经济的国际地位,人民币衍生品的国际地位与货币的国际地位相当.我国衍生品市场存在市场结构不够平衡、对外开放程度不高、法律体系和制度建设不完善以及金融基础设施质量不优等发展短板,还面临来自离岸市场的竞争以及跨境监管协作的挑战.定性和定量分析显示,开放经济下应防范离岸人民币流动性风险,并警惕人民币汇率定价权旁落境外的问题.建议深化在岸利率汇率市场化改革,完善衍生品产品体系和优化交易制度,推动在岸制度型开放,引领构建全球人民币衍生品监管框架,推出离岸流动性操作工具,以推动开放经济下中国衍生品市场加快健康发展.

近年来,在内地金融市场开放进程不断加快的背景下,香港离岸人民币市场得以快速发展,市场发展的深层动力由跨境贸易人民币结算向金融市场"本币跨境支付"开放模式转变,离岸人民币流动性的波动随之呈现新特征.持续优化香港离岸人民币流动性安排,不仅有助于为香港离岸人民币业务枢纽建设营造更加有利的环境,对于统筹内地金融市场开放与风险防范亦具有重要意义.

金融开放新模式推动了离岸人民币外汇衍生品交易的快速增长.作为一种抵押贷款,市场主体通过外汇衍生品获得的表外负债不易被监管当局所掌握.据我们估算,在实际对冲需求之外的表外隐形负债规模高达2.8万亿元人民币,并以短期负债为主;每日负债到期规模高达1600亿元人民币,该规模将随着外资流入而进一步提高.离岸衍生品下的隐形负债具有不透明、期限错配等问题,会给我国在岸外汇市场和证券市场带来一系列的潜在风险.为此,我们建议推动跨境监管合作、创新建设上海人民币离岸市场、扩大资本项目双向开放、打造全球人民币金融安全网.

China's banking system has seen increasing convergence in exposures to different asset types. These concentrated commonalities have far reaching implications on systemic financial risk. Based on the commonality structure of banks' balance sheets, we construct a bipartite financial network and design novel indicators to analyze the systemic risk of China's banking system and its relation to the real economy. Results show that (1) considering the interconnectivity, indirect loss arising from common exposure is much higher than direct loss; (2) concentrated common exposure to mortgage is demonstrated to be the most significant source of systemic vulnerability in China; (3) the derived contagion network shows the property of "small world", which plays an important role in generating systemic risk, amplified non-linearly by multi-rounds of contagion; (4) a bank's systemic importance/vulnerability depends on complex interaction between asset volume, leverage rate, and its commonality of asset composition to other banks. The model proposed in this study provides a new structural perspective to investigate the systemic risk, and a macroprudential instrument to complement existing stress testing that contributes to more efficient and precise regulations. Moreover, we contribute a ranking framework to assess each bank's systemic importance as well as vulnerability corresponding to specific real sectors.

This paper studies firms’ information withholding in a mandatory environmental disclosure regime where regulators only allow firms to withhold information regarded as a trade secret. I find evidence of withholding information for reasons other than proprietary-cost concerns, which is inconsistent with regulators' intent. Since innovative firms are likely to own trade secrets, I expect them to withhold more information than non-innovative firms. However, I do not find evidence in support of this prediction, and the null result is explained by the opportunistic withholding of information by non-innovative firms. I find that non-innovative firms withhold more information as trade secrets when states have looser disclosure rules (i.e., more opportunities for being non-compliant), regulators do not monitor polluting activities (i.e., fewer litigation concerns), and firms operate in larger communities (i.e., disclosure has higher political costs). I do not find such variations among innovative firms. Together, the findings suggest that firms may engage in avoidance strategies in mandatory environmental disclosure programs with options to withhold trade secrets. This paper highlights the importance of trade secret verification in such disclosure regulations.

近期的全球冲突凸显了以外汇储备为支撑的资本账户 自由兑换的脆弱性和风险.当前人民币在岸和离岸金融体系的发展水平有限、在岸金融体系开放程度不高,较难满足中国经济双循环下多样和全球化的金融需求,以及全球对人民币作为支付和储备货币不断增长的需求.在资本账户不宜全面开放的国际环境下,中国可以构建一个高水平、全开放、包含境内和境外两部分的人民币离岸金融体系来满足这些需求,利用境内外力量共同推动该体系的市场建设,从而风险更可控地推进资本账户开放.这一体系的境内部分因受中国管辖,可建立全开放和全球最佳实践的金融基础设施和监管体系,以便于中国人民银行对离岸人民币进行流动性和金融稳定性调控,保证人民币的全球定价权.主动构建境内人民币离岸金融体系是中国资本账户不宜全面开放时的权宜之计,离岸和在岸需进行风险隔离,并通过离岸和在岸的良性互动、统筹协调和逐渐融合,最终实现中国整个金融体系全面和高水平的开放.

近年来,尤其是新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,全球房价上涨成为一个普遍现象,这或是宽松政策导致的,或是私人部门主动加杠杆进行货币创造所致.房价短期过快上涨和长期泡沫性上涨对经济增长、财富收入分配和金融稳定具有负面影响,值得我们警惕.我国应着力于平衡住房供需,减少供需矛盾对流动性的刺激作用,从而推动金融、房地产同实体经济的均衡发展.

中国金融市场已进入快速开放阶段,跨境资本流动与资产价格受国际环境的影响引发广泛关注.本文以2002年1月至2020年6月间数据为样本,运用滚动窗口和TVP-VAR模型,研究国际投资者资本流动受国际环境影响的演变,以及资产价格跨境传导强度的变化.本文发现,随着金融市场不断开放,资本流动受国际因素的影响明显增强,源于开放制度自由化便利化带来的投资者结构变化.同时,金融市场开放加大了美国债券和股票对中国市场的冲击影响,且冲击传播速度显著加快,印证了上述资本流动的发现.资本流动和资产价格结果均显示,后新冠肺炎疫情时期中国债券的安全性和独立性明显提升.面对国际新形势,我国需在维持宏观经济稳定的同时,加大国内改革步伐并提升人民币在国际货币体系中地位,从而更好地在金融开放与风险防范间作出平衡.

研究背景和研究问题 健全完善利率体系是我国需长期重点推进的金融任务之一.党的十九届四中、五中全会都提出"建设现代中央银行制度",且明确指出"健全基准利率和市场化利率体系""健全市场化利率形成和传导机制".

潜在产出和产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念,常用来分析宏观经济运行态势,并在一定程度上作为政府制定宏观经济政策的依据.在短期,估算产出缺口可以评估通货膨胀压力;在中期,估算潜在产出有助于了解实际经济增长的水平和空间,从而为调整宏观政策的方向和着力点提供一些依据.不过,在实践过程中,潜在产出和产出缺口对现实的指导作用可能差强人意,尤其对我国而言.目前潜在产出理论的研究离我国的实际较远.

2020年新冠疫情全球蔓延以来,我国加大资本项目改革步伐,尤其是金融市场双向开放步伐.伴随着我国经济率先复苏、货币政策回归常态,国际投资者配置人民币金融资产意愿不断增强.这一趋势正在显著改变着我国的国际收支结构,说明我国资本项目开放进入一个新发展阶段.不过,金融开放深化在丰富国际投资者的同时,也会加大国际风险对我国金融市场的影响,尤其在危机时期.面对国际新形势,我国需加大改革步伐并提升人民币在国际货币体系中的地位,积极吸引境外稳定优质资金,灵活运用政策工具籍以防范系统性风险,通过更好地在金融开放与风险防范间作出平衡,服务于我国以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局.

美国时间7月2日下午,美国众议院财政服务委员会向扎克伯格等Facebook高管致函,要求其立即停止数字货币项目Libra和数字钱包Calibra的所有工作.这已经不是数字货币第一次引发世界范围内的广泛关注,对数字货币的未来,也依然众说纷纭、莫衷一是. 比特币曾经受到热捧,当时有人认为比特币的出现是对现行货币体系的巨大挑战,甚至有人称其是“未来的黄金”.

2016年底金融监管从严后,我国影子银行发展增速明显下降.动态判断影子银行对经济金融的影响是规范影子银行发展、防范系统性金融风险的必备工具.为此,本文从金融账户的角度出发,构建"影子银行支持实体经济力度"这一指标,并测算其对债券价格的影响.本文发现,影子银行支持实体经济力度在2006年至2011年间一直上升,之后明显下降直至2016年底,其后保持稳定并有小幅改善.当这一力度减弱时,企业债信用利差将出现明显下降,尤其是高等级企业债.基于这一指标构建的经验判定可以为如何规范影子银行发展提供初步参考,从而引导影子银行发展在支持实体经济和防范金融风险之间达到平衡.

本文以2006年1月至2017年1月间上海市住房市场为样本,分析上海地区住房贷款与住房价格之间的关系.结果发现上海地区银行住房贷款和住房价格存在一个长期稳定的协整关系并相互影响,二者增速也存在短期双向影响关系.模型显示,住房贷款增速受住房价格增速的影响系数在上海市数次调控政策后有明显变化,但2015年7月之后住房贷款增速对住房价格增速的影响不断下降,住房价格水平持续偏离基本面均衡值,这表明调控政策在需求端有效果,但是调控的边际效果却在下降.上海在住房市场应供给端和需求端调控并重,多渠道加大土地和住房供应,从而保障住房市场平稳健康发展.

在经历了长期低利率以及购买大规模资产之后,美联储于2015年12月开始加息,2017年10月开始缩表,并计划在2018年持续加息并加快缩表进度.与以往利率调控背景不同,当下美国银行业持有巨量准备金,这使得美联储需要使用与危机前不一样的货币政策工具.

货币当局为何要发行央行数字货币?仅仅是为了取代现金吗?仅仅是为了节约现金印制成本吗?显然不是.因为现金的使用比例已逐年下降,替代现金的各种电子货币逐年增长,而研究和发行央行数字货币的经济成本和社会成本是巨大的,各国央行都不可能单单为了取代现金而发行央行数字货币.