Аннотация.Социально-экономическое развитие территорий определяются решением задач государственной политики, эффективностью применения организационно-управленческих практик, прогнозирования возможных опасных событий и принятия мер по снижению риска возникновения аварийных происшествий и стихийных бедствий.Современные тенденции территориального управления связаны с использованием риск-ориентированного подхода.Информация о частоте проявления неблагоприятных событий может служить базой для определения источников различного уровня риска

Представлен подробный анализ факторов опасности, возникающих в техносфере и влияющих на устойчивое развитие территорий Крайнего Севера и Арктической зоны Красноярского края, с учетом природно-климатических особенностей. Даны общая характеристика и оценка состояния промышленной инфраструктуры, приведены данные по аварийности объектов техносферы. На основе байесовских сетей предложена методика оценки вероятности возникновения опасных техногенных событий и выполнены оценки техногенного риска Арктической зоны Красноярского края The main factors influencing the sustainable development of the territories of the Far North and the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, taking into account natural and climatic features, are considered. The general characteristics and assessment of the state of industrial infrastructure are provided, data on the accident rate of technosphere objects are given. On the basis of Bayesian networks, a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of dangerous technogenic events is proposed and estimates of the technogenic risk of the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory are made

In the conditions of active development of the northern regions of Russia, the urgent task is not only strategic planning for the development of the resources of the north, but also a rational approach to the conservation of primary landscapes of ecosystems. Management of natural areas should be based on a risk-based approach that takes into account factors of biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic origin. The method of applying the Bayesian approach to assessing environmental risks is considered on the example of the forest ecosystem of the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Graphical models of probability distribution take into account such elements of the system as the species composition of wood, the type of pest or disease of the forest as input data. An assessment of the probability of damage to forests showed that insect pests (Siberian silkworm, Ussuri polygraph) contribute to significant damage to forests. Economically valuable species of wood (larch, fir, cedar) are vulnerable to the impact of biotic factors. It is proposed to carry out sanitary felling as measures to prevent the death of the forest to strengthen control over the development of centers of biological threats.

A study was carried out to assess the effect of concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and formaldehyde (F) exceeding the MPC on the mortality rate of the population of the city of Krasnoyarsk for 10 years (from 2000 to 2004 and from 2014 to 2018). The relative increase in mortality from exposure to the pollutants under study was determined using the relative risk model.

The process describes an intelligent system creation designed for risk evaluation and management. The risk can be anthropogenic, natural, or social nature, and belong to territories of different scales. Complexity in structuring and collecting information about the state territorial security as well as different risks assessment methods necessitate the development of a modular multitask system. The information management system support model formalizes the problem area to justify the joint intelligent technologies use. Based on the model, system architecture has been developed. This architecture defines the composition, functionality, interaction interfaces, as well as the information resources organization, that were used to support management. Here is presented an intelligent system prototype operation result.

In this paper an assessment of air pollution in Krasnoyarsk for 2017–2019 is carried out based on the observations primary data of stationary posts for monitoring the state of air quality; the location of the posts with an indication of the development type is shown.

In this paper an assessment of air pollution in Krasnoyarsk for 2017–2019 is carried out based on the observations primary data of stationary posts for monitoring the state of air quality; the location of the posts with an indication of the development type is shown.

Models and assessment methods of anthropogenic risk are analyzed at this article, general basis of mathematical approach for risk analysis is disclosed. Based on multivariate statistic methods, algorithm of analysis for Siberian territories safety is formulated, it allows to define acceptable level of risk for each territorial group (cities with population density more than 70 000, towns with population less than 70 000, and municipals areas).

The safety of territorial entities is characterized by the presence of facilities with functionally complex and highly hazardous production systems, which carry obvious threats to the life and health of the population (risks of accidents and disasters) and concealed ones (environmental pollution). The presence of a large number potentially dangerous objects increases the probability of accidents and natural, social and man-made character disasters. For safety analysis and risk assessment, it is proposed to use multidimensional statistics methods, which make it possible to divide the territory into homogeneous groups with similar characteristics. Based on the breakdown results, a quantitative assessment of the risk within each individual group was determined.

The paper analyzes and dynamics of pollutants in Krasnoyarsk. The contribution of substances to the total concentration of pollutants is revealed. Using a relative risk model, the relative increase in mortality from the effects of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, PM10, was determined.

The analysis of environmental factors influence on the mortality rate of the Krasnoyarsk’s population is executed with using the generalized linear model with Poisson regression. The study’s object was the population mortality rates for Krasnoyarsk city in the age from 60 to 74 years old for the period from 2010 to 2014. The purpose of the study is to assess the degree of common influence of climatic and environmental factors on the population mortality rates for Krasnoyarsk city.

Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 To date, individual risk assessments have been performed for the some components of the S-P-T system using the example of the Krasnoyarsk territory. An analysis of the accident risks and individual death risks as a result of anthropogenic emergencies made it possible to rank the regional municipalities (dangerous, borderline and safe territories) by the quantitative risk level. A methodology to assess the ecosphere risks is being developed based on a combination of classical methods of multivariate statistical analysis as applied to forest ecosystems. Materials of forest fire, phytopathological and other types of monitoring are used as initial data. To assess the socio sphere risks a quantitative analysis was performed for the influence of environmental factors such as air and drinking water pollution, specific climatic parameters on the population morbidity and mortality. For the first time estimates were made of the combined effect on the population mortality of air pollutant concentrations and climatic features, including heat and cold waves sudden changes in air temperature. Maps of the health risks caused by air and drinking water pollution, the risks of death in natural and anthropogenic emergency and the risks of dangerous events and incidents have been developed using GIS technology. At the same time, the assessment of the human morbidity and mortality in the interaction with the regional S-N-T system is significantly limited by the lack of knowledge regarding the impact risk objects in terms of consequences analysis. In addition, the existing models applying to natural, social and technological risks are not identical. These models do not allow to justify the standard requirements for data collecting and analysing, monitoring parameters and risk management. Thus, a methodology for forecasting risks is required depending on the technologies for collecting data, control, monitoring taken to counter risks. Acknowledgments. The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, to the research project: number 18-47-240006 «Methods and information technologies for risk assessment of the development of social-natural-technogenic systems in an industrial region».

A quantitative assessment of human health risk is carried out, at influence of carcinogenic chemicals with using their annual concentrations. The calculated values of air quality standards for priority carcinogenic substances are offered to different categories of the population.

This abstract book contains abstracts of the various research ideas presented at The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium.The RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium served as a perfect venue for practitioners, engineers, researchers, scientists, managers and decision-makers from all over the world to exchange ideas and technology about the latest innovation developments dealing with risk minimization.

The basic indicators of regional water use have been identified and assessed as a component of a single social–natural–technogenic system. These indicators have been assessed in the case of industrial agglomerations in Siberia: Krasnoyarsk Territory and Kemerovskaya oblast, which are considered as pilot regions for the development of the concept of social–natural–technogenic systems. The choice and assessment of basic indicators is a first stage in solving the problems of risk assessment in sustainable regional development.

The presentation of an industrial region as a unified socio-natural-technogenic (S-N-T) system in which various risk groups are formed and implemented is proposed. Detailed attention is paid to the technosphere subsystem. The paper defines the basic risks of the technosphere, presents the probability of an emergency in the Russian Federation, allowing to calculate the risks for various municipalities. The results of systematization and graphical-probabilistic representation of sources and factors causing accidents and man-made disasters in the Krasnoyarsk territory are presented. The results of the emergency risk in the Krasnoyarsk territory for various reasons. The results of emergencies risks on the Krasnoyarsk territory were obtained. The highest value is 8·10-3 – the emergencies risk on land transport, the lowest value is obtained for the occurrence of emergencies on the main oil pipelines 4,3·10-7. Determination of probabilities by the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies allows unifying the risk assessment methodology and improving the management efficiency of territorial S-N-T systems (Preventing the occurrence and development of emergency situations, reducing damage and losses in case of their occurrence, increasing the stability and safety of facilities in emergency situations).