В работе рассмотрены некоторые результаты функционирования автоматизированных систем сейсмометрического контроля на плотинах Красноярской и Зейской ГЭС. Представлены информационная модель и программное обеспечение как инструмент для исследования изменения динамических характеристик во времени и в сопоставлении с основными факторами внешних воздействий на плотину ГЭС. The paper considers some results of the operation of automated seismometric control systems at the dams of the Krasnoyarskaya and Zeyskaya HPP. An information model and software are presented as a tool for studying the changes in dynamic characteristics over time and in comparison with the main factors of external impacts on the hydroelectric dam.

The residual life of the runners of hydraulic turbines in the presence of operational defects is estimated. The main problems of the operation of hydraulic turbines associated with technological defects and exhaustion of the standard resource are described. The main requirements for initial data to be used in estimation of the residual resource and the requirements for predicting the residual resource of runners based on the results of surveys and analysis of their technical condition are specified. We have classified and briefly described the applied approaches and techniques used in estimation of the residual resource. The main damaging factors affecting the residual life of the runners are revealed: deformation aging of the metal, cavitation, corrosion and fatigue damage to the elements of runners. The most characteristic defects are divided into three groups: zones of cavitation erosion; corrosion-fatigue cracks; and weld defects. Particular attention is paid to corrosion-fatigue cracks identified using flaw detection. The mechanism of crack formation and the most probable location of the cracks in the runner are shown. Statistical data on the number of cracks at the onset of the runner operation and at the time of shutdown maintenance are presented. The main statistical parameters of the sample and the parameters of crack size distributions including the distribution law are determined. The distribution law is exponential for the crack length parameter; whereas for the crack opening width it is log-normal. The revealed multidirectional cracks are located at the surface, subsurface or inner layer of the metal. They arise from operational defects (ulcers, craters, undercuts or delamination) and grow during operation of the turbine units. We also present the design schemes of elements with cracks used for quantification of resources according to the criteria of fracture mechanics. The results of calculations for static and dynamic crack resistance are presented as the dependence of stress intensity factors on the crack size. The levels of the total accumulated damage to the runners, the values of the residual life at the stage of crack nucleation and development were determined for 11 hydraulic units in the «start-stop» and «working» cycles. The main conclusion is that the total operating time of the hydraulic turbine runners significantly exceeds the standard operating life, while the residual resource is insufficient for a further period of long-term operation.

Основная цель обеспечения безопасности при добыче угля на разрезе снижение рисков аварий до научно обоснованных уровней. Разработана не имеющая аналогов авторская методика оценки эффективности системы управления промышленной безопасностью угольных разрезов через алгоритм внутреннего аудита. Решение задач управления рисками аварий на объектах открытой угледобычи предлагается реализовать в рамках системы «человек-машина-среда» (Ч-М-С). Актуальность работы определяется тем, что разработанная методика учитывает специфику горнодобывающей отрасли и адаптирована к её критическим вызовам и потребностям. Является важным инструментом обеспечения оптимальных условий работы и поддержания требуемого уровня безопасности на открытых горных работах. The main goal to be pursued in organizing surface coal mining operations from a safety point of view is to reduce the risk of accidents to acceptable science-based levels. To realize this goal, it’s necessary to form the structure and mechanisms of open pit management on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. To solve the problems of accident risk management at the objects of surface coal mining it’s proposed to use the system "man-machine-environment" (HM-E). The aim of the work is to determine the efficiency of the technology of work organization in the system "H-M-E" through the efficiency of the unified system of industrial safety management (USIMS) of a coal open pit. For this purpose, the author's methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the industrial safety management system of surface coal mining through the internal audit algorithm has been developed, which previously had no analogues.

Представлены направления основных исследований, выполненных коллективом авторов в период с 1985 г. по настоящее время, результаты которых получили отражение в издательском проекте научных, научно-технических и прикладных разработок “Конструкционная прочность. Ресурс. Механика разрушения. Безопасность технических систем”. В рамках проекта опубликовано десять коллективных монографий. В обзорной форме отражены результаты исследований предельных состояний, характеристик трещиностойкости конструкционных материалов, композитных конструкций космических аппаратов, разработки в области создания машин и конструкций для условий Сибири и Арктики, приведены примеры результатов диагностики технического состояния и анализа причин аварий сложных технических систем. Отмечена приоритетная роль математического моделирования в решении обозначенных задач, особенно при анализе напряженно-деформированных состояний The article presents the directions of the main research carried out by a team of authors in the period since 1985. The results of the research were reflected in the framework of the publishing project of scientific, scientific, technical and applied developments “Structural strength. Resource. Destruction mechanics. Safety of technical systems”. Ten collective monographs have been published within the framework of the project. The review form reflects the results for studies of limit states, crack resistance characteristics of structural materials, composite structures of spacecraft, developments in the field of creating machines and structures for the conditions of Siberia and the Arctic. Examples of the results of diagnostics of the technical condition and analysis of the causes of accidents of complex technical systems are given. The priority role of mathematical modelling in solving the indicated problems, especially in terms of the analysis of stress-strain states, is anticipated

To analyze the functional characteristics of the «man — machine — environment» system and various factors influencing the occurrence of technogenic incidents at a open pit mining, a logical-stochastic model is developed. Within the framework of this model, it is proposed to consider both deterministic factors, such as working conditions or the state of equipment, and probabilistic (stochastic) factors, for example, random events or the human factor. The model allows for evaluating the probability of specific types of accidents or injuries based on these factors. The purpose of the work is to develop a logical-stochastic model of accident rate and injuries for the open pit mining system under consideration. The work implements an algorithm for a model of the stripping process for machine modeling of the process of the emergence of hazards and their development into the causal chain of a catastrophic accident and injury to personnel. The algorithm is based on the anthropogenic factors of a person psychophysiological properties and other factors determined by the reliability of the machine used by him, the comfort of the working environment and the level of organization of the technology of work being carried out. The model and the algorithm for occurrence of technogenic accidents at a open pit mining during the implementation of hazards in the system under consideration were developed. The algorithm is applicable to conduct a series of machine experiments and identify factors influencing the implementation of technogenic incidents. The combined model of the realization of hazard and the occurrence of a technogenic incident in the open pit mining system under consideration is presented, taking into account many fuzzy logic factors. The model improves modeling accuracy, uncertainty handling ability, and applicability to real-world problems, providing a flexible tool for analyzing complex phenomena when dealing with fuzzy information.

Представлен подробный анализ факторов опасности, возникающих в техносфере и влияющих на устойчивое развитие территорий Крайнего Севера и Арктической зоны Красноярского края, с учетом природно-климатических особенностей. Даны общая характеристика и оценка состояния промышленной инфраструктуры, приведены данные по аварийности объектов техносферы. На основе байесовских сетей предложена методика оценки вероятности возникновения опасных техногенных событий и выполнены оценки техногенного риска Арктической зоны Красноярского края The main factors influencing the sustainable development of the territories of the Far North and the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, taking into account natural and climatic features, are considered. The general characteristics and assessment of the state of industrial infrastructure are provided, data on the accident rate of technosphere objects are given. On the basis of Bayesian networks, a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of dangerous technogenic events is proposed and estimates of the technogenic risk of the Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory are made

Introduction. The need to increase the level of comprehensive safety, reduce accident and injury rates, minimize the risk of failures, accidents and catastrophes determines the relevance of research on the relationship of elements of the "human–machine–environment" (H–M–E) system during open-pit mining. One of the most effective mechanisms for studying the functional characteristics of the H–M–E system of a coal mine is to conduct simulation modeling in order to identify problematic situations that trigger accidents with catastrophic consequences and injury to personnel. Simulation modeling of a technological process involves constructing a model of a real system and setting up computational experiments to describe the behavior of the system and evaluate various strategies that ensure its functioning. The aim of the research was to adapt simulation modeling technologies to solve the problem of complex safety during open-pit mining. Within the framework of the study, the task was to determine the elements that made the greatest contribution to the implementation of risks in the H–M–E system during stripping operations at a coal mine. The simulated subsystems were "human", "machine", "environment", and "weather conditions". Materials and Methods. Stripping process was considered in the ARIS eEPC (extended Event Driven Process Chain) methodology as a business process linking a set of subprocesses and/or business operations. To build a simulation model in the AnyLogic software environment, the business process of stripping works in ARIS eEPC notation was described by a graph representing a structure consisting of objects and connections between them. This approach allowed us to structure the sequence of events and operations and determine alternative outcomes that arose during stripping operations. Results. As part of the research, a method was developed for translating the formal model of the stripping business process in ARIS eEPC notation into a combined simulation model of AnyLogic. Based on the developed method, a series of machine experiments was carried out. The elements influencing the realization of the risk of accidents in the H–M–E system of a coal mine were determined. Discussion and Conclusion. For the first time in the domestic practice of research of the H–M–E system, simulation modeling technologies have received an application for the analysis of complex safety indicators during open-pit mining. According to the simulation experiment results, it was found that the main influence on the decrease in the reliability of the "machine" subsystem was exerted by the human factor, which, together with the psychophysiological properties of a person, enhanced the development of the domino effect when implementing various types of risks. The presented results and experimental approbation of simulation modeling technology can have advanced use in the analysis of complex technical systems safety, taking into account the influence of human and man-made factors.

Results of solutions to problems of determining the parameters of anisogrid lattice structures of spacecraft bodies are presented. These problems include analyzing the deformability of a body loaded with transverse inertial forces, determining the fundamental frequency of transverse vibrations of a cantilevered body, studying the deformability of a body loaded with axial compressive force, and analyzing the deformability of a body with an internal fuel tank loaded with transverse inertial forces. The problems under consideration are solved using a continuous model of the lattice structure of a cylindrical body and the finite-element method.

Thermal barrier coatings (TBC) are widely used to protect the hot section structural components, such as aircraft gas turbine, against hot corrosion and large thermal gradients during the service life. The resistance to interfacial debonding (adhesion) is one of the key factors for predicting the TBC durability during operation. The goal of the study is analysis of the existing approaches to quantification of the interfacial adhesion for multi-layered thermal barrier coating systems and thermally-grown oxide on Ni-based superalloys and discussion of the problem regarding the reasons for a large spread of the adhesion characteristics. Theoretical prerequisites for determining the adhesion characteristics are considered to provide a theoretical background for quantification of the interfacial adhesion. The absence of national standard tests applicable to TBC is marked along with a significant scatter of the values obtained using international test-regulating documents and proprietary technologies. The values of the intensity of the strain energy release are found to vary from 0.3 to 230 J/m 2 depending on the method for measuring adhesion, experimental details and type of the system considered. The factors that determine a large spread of the interfacial adhesion values were divided into two groups: 1 — intrinsic, attributed to the features of TBC layer formation and temperature affecting the value and distribution of residual strains and stresses and direction of the failure initiation; 2 — extrinsic, which are related to test conditions and technique of experimental data processing. A complex approach involving both intrinsic and extrinsic parameters is required to address the problem of interfacial adhesion quantification.

ABSTRACT The paper presents results of studies on technological defectiveness, structural and mechanical heterogeneity and crack resistance characteristics of welded joints from lowcarbon and low alloy steels, including tests at low temperatures. The computational and experimental complex for evaluating the strength, reliability and safety of welded structures is described, within the framework of which a number of applied problems are solved based on the fracture mechanics criteria.

Models and assessment methods of anthropogenic risk are analyzed at this article, general basis of mathematical approach for risk analysis is disclosed. Based on multivariate statistic methods, algorithm of analysis for Siberian territories safety is formulated, it allows to define acceptable level of risk for each territorial group (cities with population density more than 70 000, towns with population less than 70 000, and municipals areas).

Using the methodology of assessing the risk from carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic substances to public health, algorithms to estimate the standards for the quality of atmospheric air and potable water are considered. The acceptable levels of risks for various countries and impact groups are analyzed. It is shown that the levels of maximum permissible concentrations of these substances, calculated depending on the acceptable risks, are significantly lower than the current sanitary standards.

В связи с 30-летием научного информационного сборника «Проблемы безопасности и чрезвычайных ситуаций» обобщаются основные направления и результаты фундаментальных научных исследований и практических разработок в нашей стране и за рубежом по трем ключевым проблемам прочность, целостность и безопасность сложных технических систем. Рассмотрение и решение этих проблем в такой последовательности обусловливалось на практике нарастанием во времени уровней их актуальности, сложности и научной обоснованности. Показано, что исходное применение упрощённых модели и методы расчетов компенсировались повышенными значениями коэффициентов запаса. Переход в расчетах от рассмотрения упругих деформаций к анализу упругопластических для наиболее нагруженных зон несущих элементов поставил необходимость решения проблем целостности и трещиностойкости. Повышение рабочих параметров и сложности конструкций технических систем на современном этапе, а также возрастание ущербов от возникновения техногенных аварий и катастроф на таких системах потребовали перехода к количественному определению уровней безопасности по критериям рисков. В решении указанных проблем ключевое место заняли вопросы анализа напряженно-деформированных состояний и построения расчетных уравнений с оценками параметров предельных состояний по критериям прочности, трещиностойкости, безопасности, защищенности и рисков.

The article discusses The methodological aspects and presents the results of the assessment of territorial risks for socio-natural-technogenic (S-N-T) systems are discussed. In work have presented the calculations of individual and material risks emergencies in the Krasnoyarsk territory and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The main techno-dangerous objects of territories are allocated and possible technogenic dangers with an assessment of the main indicators of pollution of natural environment are shown. As an example, the production associated with the production of petroleum products and minerals, reservoirs and tailings. Territorial technogenic risks of emergencies for the Krasnoyarsk territory and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) are analyzed.

Рассмотрен процесс формирования нормативной базы обеспечения механической безопасности зданий и сооружений на основе технических регламентов. Установлены этапы и последовательность создания, степень учёта зарубежного опыта при разработке СНиП и Технических регламентов. Отмечены недостатки, возникшие в ходе их практической реализации, и сформулированы предложения по совершенствованию разработанных нормативных документов.