This paper introduces international trade in intermediate inputs into Clarida et al.(2002) to examine the welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation when the world is hit by cost-push shocks. We find that Clarida et al.(2002)'s prediction is right. Specifically, the introduction of the international trade in intermediate inputs opens a new channel through which the terms of trade at the stage of intermediate-goods production produce the spillover effect. In Clarida et al. (2002), the risk sharing effect and the terms of trade effect cancel out and the welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation disappear when the utility function of consumption is logarithmic. By contrast, in our model, the new channel still works. By internalizing the spillover effect produced through the new channel, the cooperative monetary policymaker achieves the welfare gains which are substantially larger than those found in the literature. In addition, we find that the welfare gains increase with the degree of intermediate-goods trade openness.

Local government debt has long been an important financing tool in China, with heterogeneous effects across regions and over time. Combining prefecture-level empirical evidence with a heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model, this paper studies the macroeconomic and welfare implications of alternative local government debt-to-GDP ratios. The empirical results show that, in the short run, debt exhibits an inverted U-shaped effect on output, consumption, and investment, with stronger nonlinear responses in less developed regions. We then calibrate the model separately for developed and less developed regions to quantify long-run outcomes. The quantitative analysis indicates that, under the current fiscal framework, higher debt ratios lead to monotonic declines in output, consumption, and private investment, rising interest rates, and worsening wealth inequality, resulting in lower household welfare. Regional heterogeneity arises from differences in capital productivity, fiscal capacity, and exposure to crowding-out effects. Overall, the findings highlight that once local government debt becomes a binding constraint, its expansion primarily amplifies macroeconomic distortions rather than supporting growth, providing policy-relevant insights for managing local debt risks in China.

This study examines the impact of structural transformation on income distribution patterns across production factors from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, providing insights for global efforts to optimize industrial structures, narrow income disparities, and achieve dual objectives of efficiency and equity. The research uncovers a cross-national phenomenon where “declining in industrial share exacerbates income inequality”, offering theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidences to explain this trend. It demonstrates that the decline in the industrial share involves two concurrent processes: the contraction of non-skill-intensive industries and the expansion of skill-intensive services, as well as the contraction of labor-intensive industries and the expansion of capital-intensive services. These changes alter production factor demand structures while increasing skill premiums and capital income shares, thereby worsening income distribution patterns and intensifying structural employment contradictions.

We investigate political budget cycles in prefecture-level cities in China by leveraging crossprovince variation in the timing of the Provincial Congress of the Communist Party, which is the most significant event for promoting and reappointing prefecture leaders. Our findings reveal strong evidence of a cyclical pattern, characterized by an increase in government spending leading up to the Congress, followed by a decrease afterward. This trend is particularly pronounced for infrastructure spending, which is a crucial driver of economic growth in China. Additionally, we examine China's multi-layer government hierarchy and explore heterogeneity across prefectures. Our analysis shows that these cycles are especially evident when promotion opportunities for prefecture leaders are most prominent. In terms of revenue sources, we do not observe significant cyclical patterns for in-budget revenues; however, we do find evidence of cycles in revenues from land sales, a vital source of off-budget revenues. Our study contributes to the literature by examining both the size of government and the allocation of public funds in order to uncover distinct political budget cycles at the prefecture level in China and highlighting the vertical incentives within the multi-layer government hierarchy.

The rapid development of the digital economy has highlighted the crucial role of data in economic growth. This study investigates the impact of two types of innovation on long-term growth by incorporating data into a model of creative destruction and knowledge accumulation. Unlike traditional factors, data exhibit nonrivalry between the two research and development (R&D) sectors, thereby influencing the growth rate of economic outputs simultaneously without interference. Our findings reveal the existence of a balanced growth path (BGP) in both the decentralized economy and the social planner's economy. In horizontal innovation, data can be transformed into digital knowledge to promote the economic growth [Cong et al. (2021)]. In addition to horizontal innovation, the utilization of data in vertical innovation also enhances the success rate of innovation, with a gradual decrease in per capita data usage on the BGP. Moreover, as agents accumulate human capital, the economy achieves higher output levels, effectively addressing consumer privacy concerns. However, along the transitional path, insufficient data provision by both R&D sectors leads to lower economic growth rates or more intense economic fluctuations, necessitating policy interventions.

This paper mainly investigates whether emissions trading for pollutant permits more effective. By employing difference-in-differences method and a compressive firm-level dataset, we evaluate the impact of carbon trading system pilot cities policy on enterprises' energy-saving behavior. The findings indicate that after carbon trading system pilot cities policy, enterprises’ coal consumption and coal intensity decreased by almost 34 % and 33 % respectively. The policy effect is more pronounced for larger companies and for firms in energy-intensive sectors. Moreover, the policy effect becomes stronger over time. Our results satisfy the common trend assumption. Meanwhile, the investment in equipment and output are increased, which prove emissions marketization could bring about substantial improvements in productivity.

The government of China merged or disintegrated several municipal districts on a large scale during 2000s. Employing a difference-in-difference approach and the benchmarking data envelopment analysis method, we show that border reorganization within cities significantly improves enterprise resource allocation efficiency. The primary mechanism is that modifying internal city boundaries enables geographically clustered enterprises to achieve agglomeration and specialization within administrative units and help mitigate market segmentation. This implies that borders within cities are important and enable use of border reorganizations as an effective tool in optimizing the quality of urban development.

Modernizing the industrial system is an integral and strategic priority within the broader scope of modernizing the economic system. It demands a focus on boosting China’s labor productivity and self-sufficiency rate of key technology products, with the aim to advance industrial upgrading and optimize the industrial structure. Hence, China must promote the strategy to expand domestic demand and accelerate the creation of a new development pattern from the supply side, coordinate economic development across regions, establish a national unified market, and create a more open industrial system. Specifically, China should increase funding in scientific research and experimental development, enhance the innovation capacity of core technologies in key fields, optimize the digital economy structure, strengthen the modern service industry, raise the labor productivity of the service industry, maximize the market’s decisive role and the government’s function in resource allocation, and build a talent system tailored to the modern industrial system.

马克思对资本主义发展过程及其规律的研究揭示了现代化的内在动因、一般趋势和基本特征,形成了马克思主义关于现代化的基本理论观点.植根于中华优秀传统文化沃土的中国式现代化,借鉴吸收一切人类优秀文明成果,代表人类文明进步的发展方向,展现了不同于西方现代化模式的新图景,是一种全新的人类文明形态,丰富和发展了马克思主义现代化理论.

本文考察了以"新农保"为代表的社会养老保险对老年人隔代抚养行为的影响.研究发现,领取养老金会显著降低老年人的隔代抚养参与率,该负向影响在女性老年人和孙辈数量更多的老年人中更为明显.机制分析表明,养老金对隔代抚养参与率的影响渠道在于代际间联系的弱化,养老金不仅减少了老年人与子女同居的可能性,还会对子女的经济支持产生挤出效应.隔代抚养会提高老年人的抑郁水平,而领取养老金可在一定程度上减弱该负面作用.

The modern industrial system is one of the main elements and strategic focuses of a modern economic system.Construction of a modern industrial system should take improving China’s labor productivity and self-sufficiency rate of core technology products as the core task, promote industrial upgrading and optimize industrial structure, guarantee the promotion of China’s strategy of boosting domestic demand from the supply side, accelerate the construction of a new pattern of development,coordinate regional economic development, promote the construction of a unified national market, and build a more open industrial system. Specifically, we should continuously improve the investment in scientific research and development in China, enhance the innovation capacity in key technologies, improve the structure of China’s digital economy, strengthen the construction of a modern service industry, improve the labor productivity of China’s service industry, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and better perform the role of the government, and build a labor resource system that adapts to the construction of a modern industrial system.

Green credit policy (GCP) has dual attributes of being both an "environmental regulation" and a "financial instrument". Understanding its role in facilitating industrial green transformation is crucial. However, there is limited theoretical and empirical evidence on the impact of GCP on industrial green transformation. This research fills this gap by comprehensively investigating the impacts and mechanisms of GCP on industrial energy intensity (EI) in China, considering both incentive and constraint effects. Theoretically, the environmental and financial impacts of GCP are merged into a unified analytical framework based on a heterogeneous enterprise model. Empirically, diverse empirical methods, including difference-in-differences (DID), difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD), and mediating effects models, are adopted to examine whether GCP can promote green innovation or accelerate financial constraints. Results show that (1) GCP significantly decreases EI, especially among high-polluting enterprises (HPEs). The impact of incentives is far greater than that of constraints. (2) Regarding the incentive effect, energy substitution and innovation offsets exert a primary influence on reducing EI. (3) The constraint effect is caused primarily by rising financing and pollution abatement costs. (4) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibiting effect of GCP is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises, underdeveloped financial markets, and abundant energy endowments. This paper provides a theoretical framework and new empirical evidence for policymakers to design effective policies for promoting industrial green transformation.

作为建设现代化产业体系的重要组成部分和推动力,数字经济发展速度之快、辐射范围之广、影响程度之深前所未有.进入新时代,我国数字经济保持快速增长发展态势、规模不断上升,成为推动经济高质量发展、加快构建新发展格局的重要因素.未来促进我国数字经济发展,需要进一步完善数字经济结构、强化数字人才培养、发展新业态经济、加快培育构建数据要素市场、加强数字经济国际合作,提升我国经济运行质量效益和核心竞争力,拓展经济高质量发展的新空间.

近年来,中国的宏观杠杆率持续上升,对金融安全与稳定造成了一定的负面影响,引起了广泛关注.本文构建一个包含土地金融放大机制的多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,来研究房地产市场发展对杠杆率的放大作用,并评估房地产税在去杠杆过程中所发挥的作用.本文发现,地方政府采用土地金融方式进行融资放大了宏观经济波动,造成宏观杠杆上升.无论是对存量房地产还是流量房地产征税,房地产税均可以降低宏观经济波动和杠杆率.福利分析结果表明:在合理的取值范围内,房地产税税率与消费补偿呈U形关系,当房地产税税率较高时,需要补偿的消费比例较大.

本文构建包含异质性个体的空间一般均衡模型,在居民自主选择居住地与劳动供给时间的情况下给出了政府最优的土地配置和财政政策规则.研究发现,政府会根据目标函数中福利和产出的权重、各个地区的人均产出等变量及人口流动摩擦程度等参数制定各地区土地配置的总体规划.当人口流动摩擦较小或对于产出的关注程度较高时,对于高收入地区,政府应当将更多土地配置到住宅用地上.最优的财政政策组合可以通过对房地产企业征税和对非房地产企业的补贴来实现,且对非房地产企业的政策总是优于房地产企业.由于住宅用地相对工业用地的价差内生于土地配置,当政府使用其最优政策时,可以得到住宅用地的价格将内生高于工业用地价格.

区域收入差距较大是我国在构建新发展格局阶段形成优势互补的区域经济布局面临的重大问题之一.本文构建了一个包含具有稳定收入效应的非齐次偏好和异质性劳动生产率增长率的多部门动态一般均衡量化模型,从产业结构转型的角度理解我国区域收入差距的主要影响因素和形成机制.本文的研究表明,各省三大产业劳动生产率的巨大差异导致了各省不同的结构转型过程,从而导致了较大的区域收入差距.欠发达地区通过提高三大产业劳动生产率增长以及促进二三产业均衡发展可以大幅提高人均收入.本文的研究为提高欠发达地区人均收入、缩小区域收入差距以及在我国全面脱贫初期如何避免返贫提供了重要的政策思路.

作为货币政策领域的基本理论问题之一,已有大量学者对中国货币政策传导的区域异质性问题进行了研究,然而研究结论就异质性的基本特征事实仍存在极大争议.通过文献梳理发现,现有的实证研究主要基于传统的简约VAR模型和递归假设下的SVAR模型两种方法之一,尽管实证结果大多在不同程度上表明了中国货币政策传导存在区域异质性,但在异质性的方向和程度上存在明显分歧.文章表明,以上方法由于存在混合识别、约束条件过强、价格之谜以及变量排序等多方面的问题,难以对中国货币政策冲击进行有效识别,这是导致现存研究争议的主要原因.针对上述不足,文章采用基于符号约束的SVAR模型对中国货币政策传导的区域异质性进行再检验:(1)实证结果证明了中国货币政策传导存在区域异质性;(2)总的来看,货币政策在中西部地区的影响效果要强于东部地区;(3)通过对比,基于符号约束的SVAR模型可以有效解决传统方法的估计识别问题,实证结论表现出较强的稳健性.在此基础上,文章构建了一个包含两区域的DS GE模型,借以探讨导致中国货币政策传导存在上述区域异质性的结构性原因.对模型结构参数的贝叶斯估计结果表明:东部地区和中西部地区在市场调节能力、金融发展水平、地方政府行为等方面存在较为显著的差异,这些区域层面的结构性差异是货币政策传导产生异质性的重要原因.

In the literature on optimal monetary policy in open economies, the presence of local- cur-rency pricing provides a rationale for targeting CPI inflation rather than PPI inflation. In this paper, we reexamine this conclusion by incorporating international trade in intermediate inputs into Engel (2011). We find that the cooperative monetary policymaker should target the final-goods output gaps, the PPI inflation rates at both stages of production, the cur-rency misalignments at both stages of production, and the vertical relative price gaps. Welfare analysis shows that the monetary policymaker should target the weighted average intermediate-goods PPI (WPPI) inflation rather than CPI inflation for most combinations of price stickiness at both stages of production.(c) 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Super-efficiency BCC model is referred to as the variable returns to scale (VRS) model, and widely used in a variety of ways. However, the super-efficiency BCC model may be infeasible for some efficient decision making units (DMUs). In order to obtain the super-efficiency, a feasible super-efficiency evaluation approach is proposed to overcome the infeasibility problem. In this work, the production vector of an activity, which is away from the production possibility set, is obtained from the constraint condition of super-efficiency BCC model. The position relationship of the production possibility set and the line segment joining the activity to the evaluated DMU is analyzed. Moreover, the number of their intersection points is equal to the number of solutions of inequalities which consist of expressions of the production possibility set and the line segment. Super-efficiency of the evaluated DMU depends upon the number of solutions. Finally, the use of the proposed approach is illustrated by means of two examples.