The stability of bioeconomic supply chains is crucial for both national security and environmental sustainability. This study adopts a global supply chain perspective and primarily utilizes the Import Side of Foreign Production Exposure (FPEM) indicator to assess the risk exposure of China’s bioeconomy, based on data from the OECD ICIO tables. The findings indicate that the overall levels of domestic and foreign risk exposure across various sectors of China’s bioeconomy are relatively high, which makes it more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions than the U.S. and the EU. However, the proportion of foreign risk exposure in China’s bioeconomic sectors remains relatively modest, ranging from approximately 7% to 12%. Moreover, the look through foreign risk exposure of China’s bioeconomy consistently exceeds its face value foreign risk exposure, suggesting that certain foreign supply chain risks may be concealed. Notably, the Agriculture sector shows the most significant increase in look through foreign risk exposure, implying a gradual rise in potential risks. While the hidden foreign risk exposure in the Food sector demonstrates relatively low volatility, its underlying external dependencies remain a critical concern that should not be underestimated. Additionally, our research shows that the U.S. and China are each other’s largest actual foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs in the bioeconomy. This study not only provides critical insights for the risk management of China’s bioeconomic supply chains but also offers valuable lessons and implications for the security and sustainable development of global bioeconomic supply chains. Food policy implications are also discussed.

针对农村互联网使用能否有效推动农户农业机械化发展这一现实问题,基于微观数据,采用OLS模型估计农户通过互联网获取农业信息对农机社会化服务采纳的影响,并使用工具变量法和处理效应模型控制内生性,同时进行多种稳健性检验和异质性分析.结果表明:1)通过互联网获取农业信息与农户农机社会化服务采纳为负相关关系,使用2种不同方法控制内生性得出的系数分别为-2.3和-1.8;2)异质性检验显示,互联网信息获取与农机社会化服务采纳的反向关系在老年农户和经营规模极小农户的样本中并不成立;3)机制检验显示,互联网信息获取对农户 自购农机有显著的促进作用.使用互联网获取农业信息在现阶段抑制了农户农机社会化服务采纳,但有助于推动农户 自购农机;在通过互联网获取信息到有效利用网络信息获取收益之间还有更深层次的数字鸿沟.

[目的]在中国土地规模经营和服务规模经营并重推进粮食作物效率提升背景下,进一步探讨农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率提升效应的规模异质性具有现实意义.[方法]文章使用随机前沿分析和门限回归分析,利用2018年全国6省区小麦种植户经营情况,对农机社会化服务影响小麦生产技术效率及影响效果规模异质性进行研究.[结果]农机社会化服务的采用有助于提升小麦生产技术效率;农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率存在门限效应,当农户经营规模低于门限值(0.293hm2)时,农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率不具有显著影响,跨越门限值后,农机社会化服务对小麦生产技术效率则具有正向影响效应.基于农户适度规模经营的情况下,农机社会化服务对中等规模(0.293hm2<Area<3.333hm2)农户的小麦生产技术效率具有显著正向影响.[结论]农机社会化服务有助于提升中国小麦种植户技术效率,但受限于农户规模,推进农机社会化服务发展的同时仍然需要推动土地的适度规模经营.

我国居民食物消费结构不断变化升级,要实现居民"吃得好""吃得营养健康"的目标,我国粮食安全仍然面临着供求结构不平衡、资源约束趋紧、生态环境恶化等一系列挑战.大食物观拓展了传统的粮食安全边界,从传统的粮食安全向食物安全转变.推动构建我国粮食安全的新格局,积极树立大食物观是基本前提,落实藏粮于地、藏粮于技是重要基础,推动供给侧结构性改革是主要路径,用好国际市场国际资源是有益补充,改革完善农业支持政策是重要保障.

为了解中国小麦种植户生产性服务外包对测土配方施肥技术采纳的影响,运用7个粮食主产区826户微观数据,通过内生转换概率模型(ESP)讨论了农户将生产服务外包时对其测土配方施肥技术采纳的影响.结果表明:1)生产性服务外包对测土配方施肥技术采纳有显著正向影响,且农户具有减量施肥需求会更倾向于将服务外包;2)随着服务外包程度的提升,测土配方施肥技术采纳的效果更好;3)此外,生产性服务外包对经营规模较小的农户测土配方施肥技术采纳的带动效果更明显.因此,应当考虑发展各地生产性服务市场,并提升小农户对生产性服务外包的认识,促进中国农业生产减量施肥与可持续发展.

[目的]中国是农产品生产大国,同时也是农产品消费大国和贸易大国.1949—2019年中国农产品对外贸易历经70年的风雨,其在不同的历史阶段扮演着举足轻重的角色,通过回顾与总结农产品贸易发展历史,为未来中国农产品贸易发展提供经验借鉴.[方法]通过查阅历史文献,运用详实的历史统计数据进行分析.[结果]以重大历史事件为节点,将1949年以来农产品贸易发展史划分为3个阶段:即1949年至改革开放前夕、改革开放至入世前夕、入世至今.对应地,农产品贸易在中国经济发展中的主要角色被归纳为出口创汇、出口创汇与调剂余缺、优化资源配置与全面对外开放.文章着重探讨了各个阶段农产品贸易角色变迁的缘由、农产品贸易的特点.[结论]回顾70年农业贸易发展历史,中国农业贸易发展成就瞩目,发展历程艰辛曲折,中国现有农业贸易结构是发挥比较优势的产物,未来农业的发展以及农业贸易的开展,仍需遵循比较优势原理开展.

农业现代化进程,直接关系到社会主义现代化目标的进度和质量.农业现代化是"四化"同步发展的突出短板,没有农业现代化,就没有整个国家现代化.而在农业内部,小农户仍是我国现阶段乃至今后较长时期农业生产经营的基本面,小农户能否与现代农业实现有机衔接,又直接关系到我国农业现代化的实现.因此,小农户衔接现代农业是实现农业现代化的重要基础,是农业高质量发展的必然要求,是新发展理念的重要体现.

本文基于收入最大化理论框架,以测土配方施肥技术为例,结合覆盖所有粮食主产区的微观调查数据,采用PSM模型实证分析了合作社参与对农户测土配方施肥技术的影响.研究结果表明:(1)合作社参与有助于提升农户测土配方施肥技术采纳水平;(2)合作社不仅能够通过技术培训促使农户主动采纳测土配方施肥技术,更主要通过标准化生产让农户被动采纳测土配方施肥技术;(3)合作社促使参与经其销售农产品的农户采用测土配方施肥技术效果更显著;(4)合作社对小农户采用测土配方施肥技术的带动效果更明显.因此,要大力支持合作社发展,并不断提升合作社服务质量以及标准化生产水平,带动小农户参与绿色生产,实现农业可持续发展.

新冠肺炎疫情使粮食等大宗农产品贸易链、供应链受到一定程度的影响,农产品市场供给不确定性增加.面对新冠疫情和非洲猪瘟的叠加,党中央、国务院积极部署粮食、生猪、蔬菜等重要农产品的稳产保供工作,有效保障了农产品供给,保证了农产品市场价格的基本稳定.但必须清醒认识到我国粮食等重要农产品供给仍然处在紧平衡状态,持续抓好农产品稳产保供对全面建设社会主义现代化国家具有重要意义.

脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略直接关系着我国“两个一百年”奋斗目标能否顺利实现.脱贫攻坚是实现乡村振兴的重要基础,乡村振兴是脱贫攻坚的有力保障.乡村振兴是推动农业全面升级、农村全面进步、农民全面发展迈人农业现代化的必由之路,是实现全体人民共同富裕的必然要求.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">为研究不同环节农机社会化服务对粮食生产技术效率的影响,基于2019年国内7个省份早稻种植户的调查数据,运用数据包络分析法的非径向SBM模型测算早稻生产技术效率,并采用Tobit模型和分位数模型分析农机社会化服务对早稻生产技术效率的影响。结果表明:从整体上看,农机社会化服务对早稻生产技术效率存在显著的正向影响。耕地、播种和植保环节农机社会化服务均对早稻生产技术效率具有正向显著影响,而灌溉排水和收获环节农机社会化服务对早稻生产技术效率则并不显著。农机社会化服务对早稻农户种植技术效率提升效果显著,但作用边际效果因原本技术效率水平差异而有所差别,这种差别也体现在各生产环节上。因此,在大力发展农机社会化服务时,应根据其不同环节特性,制定相应的政策措施。</span>

针对印度政府在RCEP第三次领导人会议期间发布关于推迟签署协议的决定,以及印度生变导致日本“摇摆不定”的可能性,本文设计了印度参与RCEP、印度不参与RCEP以及印度与日本均不参与RCEP三个政策情景,据此考察RCEP对中国、印度以及日本等国的影响.研究结果表明,倘若印度如期加入RCEP,中国、印度、日本等RCEP成员国收益可以实现最大化,但印度所担忧的产业遭受冲击、贸易赤字增加等情况也将会发生.倘若印度不加入RCEP,此种情景下RCEP成员国整体收益有所下滑;印度虽然可以改善其贸易赤字,但将牺牲部分社会福利和经济增长,并非明智选择.倘若日本追随印度暂不加入RCEP,此时RCEP收益将大打折扣;对于日本而言,退出RCEP对其有害而无益:退出RCEP不仅享受不到RCEP所带来的收益,相反,不得不承受RCEP所产生的负面影响.RCEP初衷是通过强化区域交流与合作,维护和扩大全球化成果,为早日达成此目标,建议各方在今后的谈判中,可以适度考虑印度方面的核心关切.

在经济新常态下,我国粮食安全面临诸多挑战.加强农业基础设施建设、推动农业科技进步、促进产业融合发展、统筹国内外资源、创新政策支持是未来我们应对粮食安全挑战的有效措施;同时,我们应努力实现"藏粮于地""藏粮于技"、推进农业供给侧结构性改革、发挥支农惠农政策效果.

Purpose The emergence of mega-farms in middle-income countries like Brazil and Ukraine and the efforts to consolidate small farms into larger ones in China and elsewhere have suggested that new institutional arrangements and technology progress may increase the significant farm economies of size, and therefore challenging the classical inverse relationship (IR) between productivity and farm size. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a research to examine the existence of IR in China’s cereal production and further explore the possible mechanism. Design/methodology/approach Based on the panel data concerning farms from 31 provinces in China in 2009–2014, technology efficiency and allocation efficiency in cereal production were measured based on the Translog production function. Findings In China, an IR exists between wheat, rice and maize production after controlling the related variables. Further, the presence of this IR is due to allocation efficiency rather than technology efficiency. Results of technology efficiency show that there is no significant difference between different size groups; in other words, even the larger size groups enjoy a higher technology efficiency in rice production. Results of allocation efficiency demonstrate that, compared with the larger farms, smaller holders tend to invest more in factors which are beneficial in growing productivity. Hence, yields of small-size farms exceed those of large-size farms, which consequently leads to the IR. Practical implications The scale consolidation of cropland is harmless to the efficiency of factor utilization and, conversely, may contribute in improving the technology efficiency of specific crops (like rice). Based on the results of allocation efficiency estimation, the extent of misallocation in large scales is relatively less due to their less input of fertilizer and pesticide; thus, the size-improving policy of farmland may contribute to the ease of the non-point pollution in agriculture. Originality/value The existing discussions of the IR in the context of recent China mainly focus on the accurate verification of IRs. This paper steps forward from the perspective of technology efficiency and allocation efficiency and explores the exact resources of IR with up-to-date and representative data and hopes to find some new conclusions.

农业产业化联合体在发展适度规模经营和一二三产业融合方面发挥着积极作用,成为带动小农户融入现代化农业的有效组织载体.2018年和2019年的中央1号文件都将培育和发展农业产业化联合体作为发展乡村产业的重要措施,积极鼓励其发展.那么,农业产业化联合体到底是什么?它与以往的农业经营模式有什么区别?为了更好地理解联合体的内涵,本文围绕上述问题,对联合体的产生背景、本质特征以及理论基础进行讨论.

[目的]在马铃薯主粮化战略提出和马铃薯产业需求快速增长的背景下,研究我国马铃薯生产、消费情况,剖析马铃薯生产格局变化特征及影响因素,为优化马铃薯生产布局提出建议.[方法]利用2000年以来全国及分省马铃薯生产、 消费数据,通过统计描述和对比分析对马铃薯生产形势从总量特征和区域特征两方面进行分析,计算单产和种植面积贡献率,并且从成本收益角度对马铃薯生产格局变动及优化布局作出解释.[结果]我国马铃薯种植面积从2000年的472.3万hm2增加到2015年的551.8万hm2,马铃薯产量从2000年的1325.5万t增长至2015年的1897.2万t.在这个过程中,马铃薯生产集中度不断提高,区域布局进一步优化,其中西南混作区逐渐成为马铃薯优势产区.[结论]马铃薯生产格局的变化既有消费需求的拉动,也有国家产业政策的支持,另外收益驱动和资源比较优势的发挥也是推动马铃薯生产格局变化的重要原因.未来为进一步促进马铃薯生产的健康发展,应重点结合各区域环境资源优势进行区域规划、 降低脱毒种薯成本并加大良种推广力度.

在农业生产基本满足生存需要以及保证粮食安全的基础上,如何促进农民收入增长,提高农业整体效益已成为当前我国农业农村发展面临的重要问题.党的十九大报告中强调要通过构建现代农业产业体系、生产体系、经营体系,促进一二三产业融合发展,使农户充分分享农业产业链条各环节利益,促进农民增收、农业增效.然而现代农业"三大"体系的构建离不开农业产业组织的发展与创新,农业产业组织作为衔接"小农户"与"大市场"的重要平台,是推动农业产业化经营的重要力量.现阶段,农业产业化联合体作为一种农业产业 化经营组织模式新探索在全国范围内逐步推广,借鉴国际发展经验有助于促进现代农业产业组织的协调发展.

Based on a survey data of farmers collected from 11 provinces of China, this paper analyzes the loan demand of rural households by operational scale. A logit model is applied to analyze the associated influencing factors. The study found that 15. 54％ of the households surveyed had an effective loan demand. Among them, 76. 34％ were able to obtain loans successfully, and 60. 28％ of the borrowing needs were met. Moreover, the borrowing demand from large-scale farmers is stronger and more likely be satisfied from formal financial institutions, with high discount of the request, which has become an important factor restricting the further development of large-scale farmers. In addition, the demand for loans is relatively strong and the chance to be satisfied is relatively high for farmers with integrated production in cropping and livestock farming. With more social capital, being young, and highly educated farmers are positively related to loan demand and chance to be satisfied.

马铃薯是世界第四大粮食作物,欧洲是传统的马铃薯生产和消费地区之一,而欧洲马铃薯消费中半数来自欧盟成员国.对欧盟马铃薯需求变动及其原因的分析能够为未来中国马铃薯产业的健康发展提供借鉴.本文对欧盟马铃薯需求总量及结构进行分析,发现:①欧盟马铃薯需求总量及各分项的需求总体都呈下降趋势;②原需求中主要的构成为饲用和食用,由于产业重组使牲畜存栏量减少以及农场变革替代饲料的挤占,欧盟饲用马铃薯需求锐减,进而导致欧盟马铃薯需求的大幅减少;③随着收入水平的提高和饮食结构的优化,马铃薯食用需求虽然整体下降,但是由于饮食习惯、文化等因素影响,欧盟各成员国间食用需求变动存在差异.

Tobacco production in China is influenced by a government-set procurement price for tobacco leaf and an excise tax on tobacco leaf revenue. This study examines the increase in the procurement price needed to keep tax revenue constant in the face of a 50% reduction in the tax rate. This "compensative effect" is important because reductions in the tax rate are contemplated and tobacco tax revenue is a major source of funding for rural communities. Based on an equilibrium-displacement model of China's tobacco sector, results suggest the "Compensated Effect Elasticity" (CEE) is between 1.0 and 2.5. This means a 50% cut in the tax rate would necessitate an increase in the procurement price of between 50% and 125%. Sensitivity analysis indicates CEE is most sensitive to the retail demand and input substitution elasticities and least sensitive to oligopoly power and returns to scale.