"因灾致贫"与"因灾返贫"是推进我国脱贫攻坚目标、实现农民脱贫致富的一大障碍.保险作为农村经济风险管理的重要手段,能够在风险发生时为农户提供损失补偿,从而为农村居民构筑生产安全网,是实现扶贫事业的重要手段之一.本文从农业保险的风险保障功能出发,通过多重均衡模型来分析农业保险的扶贫效果,并从人口结构、补贴模式和市场组织形式三个角度来探讨保险精准扶贫的效果.研究结果表明:第一,引入全额保险对收入水平较高农户效用的提升最为明显,而对收入水平较低农户的影响不显著.第二,提高保费的补贴比例可以放大农业保险的扶贫作用,能够有效帮助一部分因保费支出而陷入贫困的群体脱离贫困陷阱.第三,自由投保模式的保险脱贫效果要优于强制性投保,并能够更加有效地降低农户破产概率.第四,提高保费补贴可以降低收入水平较低农户跌入贫困陷阱的概率,但随着保费补贴比例的提高,其扶贫脱贫的效果会逐渐降低,即存在边际递减的趋势.

The policy of deferred-tax on commercial endowment insurance is of great importance to the establishment and im?provement of pension system. In this paper, two different individual consumption-saving models, which are named as non-tax deferred model and tax deferred model, are built separately to study the effect of deferred-tax policy on optimal individual choices. Through modeling process, we come to the following conclusions:If the deferred tax rate equals the working period tax rate, individual demand for annuity insurance will increase, and yet the other demand and his/her expected utility will keep sta?ble. In this situation, the deferred tax policy is an Pareto improvement;If it is less than the working period tax rate, individual working period consumption, demand for annuity insurance and his expected utility will increase while individual bank saving will decrease;If it is greater than the working period tax rate, individual working period consumption, demand for annuity in?surance and his/her expected utility will decrease but individual bank savings will increase.

保险投资新政拓宽了保险机构的投资渠道,对全行业的资产负债能力提出更高的要求.在新环境下必须要将保险投资多元化,不断探索与保险负债更匹配的新投资品种.本文着力于探讨新政规定中增加的一类品种——可转换债券,根据当前可转债市场数据进行实证分析,运用修正的Redington免疫得出可转债可增加投资组合的灵活性,并结合B-S公式得出可转债的理论价值,与市场价格进行比较,认为这一投资品种具有较高的投资价值,在资本市场逐渐完善的过程中,可转债将被越来越广泛地应用到投资组合中.

This paper presents simple and fast algorithms for computing very tight upper and lower bounds on the prices of American Asian options in the binomial model. The authors choose two types sets of the actual arithmetic average prices, instead of the simulated values in other existing models, as the representative average prices at each node of the binomial tree. This approach simplifies effectively the computation and reduces the error caused by the linear interpolation. Numerical results show that the approach produces accurate upper and lower bounds compared to the other existing methods based on the binomial tree.

This paper studied the effects of crop insurance on agricultural output with an economic growth model. Based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans (RCK) model, a basic model of agriculture economic growth was developed. Extending the basic model to incorporate uncertainty and insurance mechanism, a risk model and a risk-insurance model were built to study the influences of risk and crop insurance on agricultural output. Compared with the steady states of the three models, the following results are achieved: (i) agricultural output decreases if we introduce uncertainty into the risk-free model; (ii) crop insurance promotes agriculture economic growth if insurance mechanism is introduced into the risk model; (iii) premium subsidy constantly improves agricultural output. Our contribution is that we studied the effects of crop insurance and premium subsidy from the perspective of economic growth in a dynamic framework, and proved the output promotion of crop insurance theoretically.

This paper studied the optimal asset allocation of life insurance companies.Unlike previous studies,this paper,based on an exponential analysis of the distribution of investment yields of life insurance companies,established the asset allocation model of life insurers with full consideration of legal restrictions on the investment of life insurance assets.Firstly,the article set up the insurance company income model and investment percentages and the value at risk model.Secondly,it used the crystal ball software to make a matching test of the risky assets yield sequence and analyzed the total yield sequence distribution assumption.Finally,it applied the MATLAB optimization package to calculate the optimal asset allocation of China Life and made a comparative analysis of its actual portfolio.

本文在固定乘数平衡管理模式下讨论了最低生存保证给付保险(GMLB)和最低死亡保证给付保险(GMDB)两类变额年金的风险管理问题。结果表明,如果采用固定乘数平衡管理模式管理变额年金,适当的最低收益率保证不会带来风险,但当最低收益率超过一定水平时,变额年金业务必然破产。另外当变额年金业务有外部现金流时,保险公司可以综合衡量市场、收益和风险三个因素,决定资本回报率、外部现金流规模和保证收益率。

We give two Frankl-like results of set systems with restrictions on set difference sizes and set symmetric difference sizes modulo prime powers. Based on the similar method, we also give a bound on codes satisfying the properties of Hamming distance modulo prime powers.

Efficiency of insurance regulation not only refers to how efficiently the insurance regulatorybody supervises the insurance market,but also refers to how efficiently the regulated market entities work.Effective insurance regulation should be appropriate and feasible,which means the maximization of the input and output gap of the insurance market,and the optimization of efficiency in insurance market.Presently the domestic research on insurance market efficiency is relatively weak.Some researches just focus on qualitative analysis of insurance regulation regime and in return,the effectiveness of the supervision.The paper proceeded from a qualitative analysis on insurance market regulation efficiency,then made aquantitative appraisal of the result,and finally put forward some policy suggestions on further improvement.

This article uses overlapping generation (OLG) model to study individuals' optimal decision on consumption, investment, insurance, and education expenses. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discuss the individuals' demand for insurance with the consideration of intergenerational transfer payments. In the article, we incorporate insurance into the OLG model to describe individuals' optimization problem on consuming and saving, and we solve the optimal proportions of expenditure on investment, survival insurance, life insurance, and education, with the optimal consumption to be the remaining parts of expenditure. We observe that the numerical outputs are consistent with the actual data. It is also interesting to find that the human capital investment is independent of both risky asset investment and individuals' risk aversion coefficient.

We notice that two combinatorial interpretations of the well-known Catalan numbers $C_n=(2n)!/n!(n+1)!$ naturally give rise to a recursion for $C_n$. This recursion is ideal for the study of the congruences of $C_n$ modulo $2^r$, which attracted a lot of interest recently. We present short proofs of some known results, and improve Liu and Yeh's recent classification of $C_n$ modulo $2^r$. The equivalence $C_{n}\equiv_{2^r} C_{\bar n}$ is further reduced to $C_{n}\equiv_{2^r} C_{\tilde{n}}$ for simpler $\tilde{n}$. Moreover, by using connections between weighted Dyck paths and Motzkin paths, we find new classes of combinatorial sequences whose $2$-adic order is equal to that of $C_n$, which is one less than the sum of the digits of the binary expansion of $n+1$.

Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), recently proposed by Huang et al. (12), appears to be a novel data analysis method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series. By decomposing a time series into a small number of independent and concretely implicational intrinsic modes based on scale separation, EMD explains the generation of time series data from a novel perspective. This paper presents an empirical mode decomposition based on neural network learning paradigm (EMD-NN) for forecasting volatilities of Shanghai A shares (Shanghai) and Shenzhen A shares (Shenzhen). By the criteria of some statistic loss functions, EMD-NN outperforms GARCH family models (GARCH, EGARCH, GJR), moving average and neural network in improving predictive accuracy. Keywords-Empirical Mode Decomposition; GARCH; EGARCH; GJR; Moving average; Neural network.

This paper considers the problem of minimizing the VaR and CTE of an insurer’s retained risk by controlling the combinational quota-share and stop-loss reinsurance strategy. With a constrained reinsurance premium, the authors give the explicit reinsurance forms and the minimal VaR and CTE of retained risk in the case of quota-share after stop-loss reinsurance and the case of stop-loss after-quota-share reinsurance respectively. Finally, the authors conclude that the quota-share after stop-loss is a better reinsurance strategy than stop-loss after quota-share to minimize the VaR and CTE with a same constrained reinsurance premium. And the pure stop-loss reinsurance is preferred for an insurer with a high level regulatory requirement.

本文在分析我国现行企业年金管理模式存在问题的基础上,提出应在我国推行标准年金投资产品。文章分析了香港强制性公积金计划及其管理模式的主要特点,并对我国标注年金产品的设计、审批与报备等相关问题进行了分析,同时给出了政策建议。

本文以中国12个制造行业为研究对象,在对资本存量和产业集群程度进行合理度量的基础上,使用非平稳面板数据分析方法,实证研究了产业集群与经济增长的关系。

<正>在一个有摩擦的证券市场中,交易成本是影响市场流动性和市场质量的不可忽略的重要因素。具体而言,交易成本可分为显性成本和隐性成本两部分。前者包括印花税、交易佣金等费用,后者是交易者为获取流动性所必须承担的成本。关于市场流动性的度量方法很多,其

In China,oligopolistic structure hinders the optimal use of resources in the insurance industry and affects the development of small and medium-sized insurance companies.How to use market forces to break through the oligopoly is a subject worthy of in-depth study.The paper analyzes the current situation and problems of small and medium-sized insurance companies,and sums up their advantages and disadvantages compared with large insurance companies.Finally,it offers some suggestions for the development of small and medium-sized insurance companies from the aspects of market positioning,product innovation,and risk control,etc.

本文基于两阶段的DEA模型对我国保险市场上的26家寿险公司的保险保障业务和投资业务的效率进行了实证研究。实证结果表明:我国寿险公司的效率是逐年提高的;保险保障业务的效率和投资业务的效率高度相关。只有保持两者的协调发展,保险公司才能保持较高的总效率。最后给出了提高保险公司效率的建议。

保险资金运用的组织模式以及投资渠道和投资比例会影响到保险资金的运用效果。文章通过分析全资或控股的资产管理公司、内设投资部门和外部委托等三种组织模式的特点,比较中国与美国、英国、日本在保险资金投资渠道、投资比例方面的差异,并结合目前中外保险资金运用的现状,对我国保险资金运用的组织模式以及投资方向提出了建议。

境外基金会进入我国对我国社会经济发展具有积极作用。目前境外基金会以设立代表机构的方式进入我国,但是境外基金会的资金入境方式没有统一规范,由此导致代表机构会计处理的混乱。境外基金会资金进入的不规范会引起的诸多诟病,建议将代表机构作为境外基金会在中国境内的完全代表,境外基金会入境资金需全部划入代表机构账户,这种举措能够解决资金进入不规范的问题。