дЕКАБРЬ, 2022, "УГОЛЬ" БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬСтатья посвящена проблеме распознавания промышленных взрывов и слабых природных землетрясений в районах угольных месторождений, где добыча ведется с помощью взрывов (разработка угля открытым способом).Дискриминация взрывов и землетрясений осуществляется на основе анализа сейсмограмм, зарегистрированных региональной сетью короткопериодных сейсмических станций.Для этого использовались различные подходы: визуальный анализ (форма записи, наличие поверхностных волн, полярность первых вступлений продольных волн, соотношение амплитуд продольных, поперечных и поверхностных волн), фильтрация записей по системе узкополосных фильтров в диапазоне от 0,5 до 20 Гц, расчет спектров Фурье и спектрально-временной анализ.Полученные результаты по-

The microseismicity method of ground control enjoys increasingly wider application. It is critical to have an efficiency evaluation procedure for prediction parameters, which can assist in solution of such applied problems as: reasoned selection of threshold values for prediction parameters, necessary adjustment of input data, comparison of efficiency of different parameters and adoption of the most suitable parameters for specific areas with regard to their features. This article presents the related sequential and formalized analysis as a case-study of ore body S-2 in Skalisty Mine. The seismic events cumulative effect parameter S has exhibited sufficient efficiency in the case-study of data from high-active zone A in ore body S-2 in Skalisty Mine. The critical level assumed in the procedure enables efficient prediction of a third of strong seismic events with energy emission of 4500 J and above. Prediction of higher percentage of such events needs lower value of the critical level to be set. The developed approach to the formalized evaluation of efficiency of prediction parameters is recommended for the actual introduction in seismic monitoring of rockburst-hazardous deposits. The authors appreciate participations of experts L. V. Kokoshina, E. V. Rodionova, M. V. Tereshchenko.

The phenomenon of synchronous episodic increase in gravimetric noise at the stations distant by thousands of kilometers from each other is described. The comparison with microseismic noise suggests inertial rather than gravimetric origin of the recorded anomalies. The duration of anomalous enhancement in microvibrations ranges from a few hours to a few days. The nature of synchronous microvibrations involving significant segments of the Earth’s lithosphere is unclear; the probable causes are discussed. The conducted analysis has shown that among the key factors responsible for the increase in the microseismic noise in the European part of Russia is the influence of marginal seas, in particular, the storm-generated microseisms. The allowance for this phenomenon is necessary in planning and conducting high-precision gravity surveys and long-term gravity observations.

Представлены результаты исследований Хубсугульского землетрясения (MW=4,9), произошедшего 5 декабря 2014 г. близ северной оконечности оз. Хубсугул (Монголия). Для этого землетрясения инфразвуковой станцией “Торы” (Россия, ИСЗФ СО РАН) впервые для Байкальской рифтовой системы был зарегистрирован инфразвуковой сигнал. Его длительность составила ~140 с. На основе определения очаговых параметров и механизма очага землетрясения были смоделированы смещения в эпицентральной области Хубсугульского землетрясения. Было показано, что они не способны сгенерировать инфразвуковой сигнал. Использование допустимых значений групповых скоростей инфразвуковых волн (0,28-0,35 км/с) демонстрирует, что источник сигнала находится приблизительно посередине между станцией “Торы” и эпицентром Хубсугульского землетрясения. Это свидетельствует о существовании вторичного источника на указанном расстоянии. По данным об азимуте и времени прихода акустической волны на станцию “Торы” определено положение вторичного источника инфразвукового сигнала, которым являются северные склоны хребта Хамар-Дабан. В качестве наиболее вероятного механизма формирования инфразвукового сигнала рассматривается взаимодействие сейсмических волн от очага землетрясения с горным рельефом.

The results of study of the Hovsgol earthquake with M w = 4.9, which occurred on December 5, 2014, in the northern part of Hovsgol Lake in Mongolia, are presented. An infrasonic signal of ~140 s long was recorded by the Tory infrasonic station for the first time for the Baikal Rift System. On the basis of the source parameters and focal mechanism of this earthquake determined, displacements in the epicentral zone of the Hovsgol earthquake are modeled. It is shown that they could not have produced an infrasonic sound. The use of acceptable values of group velocities of infrasonic waves (0.28–0.35 km/s) demonstrates that the signal source was located approximately midway between the Tory station and the epicenter of the Hovsgol earthquake, indicating it was a secondary source. Based on the data on the azimuth and arrival time of the acoustic wave at the Tory station, the location of this secondary source is determined to have been on the northern slopes of the Khamar Daban Range. The infrasonic signal formed most likely by interaction between seismic waves from the earthquake and the mountain relief.

Рассмотрен опыт прогноза обрушений на Жезказганском медном

The author analyzes the physical sense of the seismicity characteristics most often used in assessment of failure hazard in mines. Based on the failure mechanics, the modified damage accumulation criterion successfully used in failure prediction in Zhezkazgan copper mine is described and validated.

Physical concepts of strong seismic event forecasting based on laboratory experiments and earthquake seismology investigations are considered. High concentration of events, seismic gaps and seismicity migration can be used as forerunners of strong seismic events. A parameter, which characterises the possibility of weak events interacting and forming a strong seismic event is introduced. The case study of strong event with radiated energy 10(7.1) J which was forecasted in real time mode by analysing only seismic data is considered.

A statistical model for describing the energy scaling of the distribution of inter-event times is described. By considering the diverse region seismicity (natural and induced) on different scale (energy/magnitude) levels the self-similarity of the distribution has been determined. A comparison between the distribution of inter-event times on different scale levels and the most popular distributions of reliability theory has been carried out. The distribution of inter-event times for different scale levels is well approximated by the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution, with parameters which obey the scaling model and the Gutenberg-Richter law, has been tested.

The paper describes the unified scaling theory for distribution functions of temporal and spatial characteristics in seismology. It is based on the scaling of seismological characteristics calculated for various energy–spatial–temporal intervals. The common mathematical methods for the scaling of distribution functions are developed. The means to test possibility of such scaling are found as well. The relationship between the unified scaling theory and other present scaling approaches is determined. The theory is applied to two characteristics of different seismoactive regions. The first characteristic is the waiting time between earthquakes ΔT, the second one is a new space parameter ΔDmin, which is the minimum distance of a current seismic event to the nearest (in space) neighbor in an energy–spatial–temporal interval. The distribution of the characteristics ΔT and ΔDmin allows estimating the time interval to the next earthquake and the distance of the following earthquake from previous earthquakes. Thus, these characteristics are very important for seismic hazard estimations. Scaling of distributions functions is proven to be successful for ΔDmin in all energy–spatial–temporal intervals and for ΔT with variations of energy/magnitude range. The distribution function of ΔT for various time domains was stable in only 60% of the cases, and near to unstable for spatial variations.

In this paper the formalized forecasting technique is developed that based on kinetic approach to description of failure process. The main physical model for constructing of this technique is two-stage model of solids failure. The main states of two-stage model are the fracture or strong seismic event can occur when a critical concentration of weak ones in this area take place and transition between first (weak) and second (strong) stages accompanied by changes of characteristics of failure process. The forecasting procedure are delineation of dangerous areas with high cracks concentration and improving of precision of time to failure estimations by analyzing of characteristics of failure process. It is developed the algorithm for each of these steps. It is obtained the results of application of suggested forecasting technique for experimental data from mines. The estimations of this technique efficiency are obtained. They show good applicability of suggested forecasting technique for rock burst forecasting.

On the basis of concentration criterion of solid body failure, an approach is proposed for identifying and determining the location of failure foci in the rock mass. The efficiency, stability, and possibility of using the approach in question are considered for predicting the rock bursts.