A comprehensive understanding of the evolution of soybean climate potential productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province can offer reference and basis for further tapping soybean pro-duction potential and realizing stable and high yield of soybean in the frigid region.Based on meteorological data from 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020,we estimated photosynthesis,light temperature,and climate potential productivity of soybean by the stepwise correction method,examined the spatio-temporal variations by spatial interpolation and statistical analysis methods,and analyzed the impact of changes in climate factors such as radiation,temperature,and precipitation on climate potential productivity.The results showed that during the study period,the average values of photosynthesis potential productivity(YQ),light-temper-ature potential productivity(YT),and climate potential productivity(YW)of soybean in Heilongjiang Province were 7533,6444,and 3515 kg·hm-2,respectively.The temporal changes of those variables showed significant in-creasing trends,with increases of 125.9,182.9,and 116.1 kg·hm-2·(10 a)-1,respectively.For the spatial dis-tribution,YQ,YT,YW were characterized by high values in plains and lower in the mountains,and gradually de-creased from southwest to northeast.Compared with that during 1961-1990,the high value zone of YW in period 1991-2020 expanded by 7.1％,and the low value zone decreased by 5.1％.YW showed a significant response to cli-mate change.The potential temperature growth period was extended due to climate warming.The continuous in-crease in thermal resources,combined with relatively sufficient precipitation,effectively alleviated the negative im-pact of the decline in light resources on soybean production in Heilongjiang Province.The projected"warm and hu-mid"climate would comprehensively boost climate potential productivity of soybean in Heilongjiang Province.

This paper focuses on the cold damage and drought cross-stress in maize in Northeast China. The WOFOST model based on parameter localization was used to simulate the growth and development process of maize using daily meteorological data from 110 stations in the research area from 1981 to 2020. The experiment determined that the grouting index and the number of drought days were the indicators for identifying the low-temperature and drought cross-stress in maize, as well as the impact assessment indicators for the fluctuation percentage of dry matter weight in storage organs. It also achieved a quantitative assessment of the impact of cross-stress of low-temperature and drought between 1981 and 2020 and typical years. The results indicated that the WOFOST model can effectively simulate the impact of low-temperature and drought on maize growth, and the historical occurrence of cold damage identified by using the grouting index and drought days as indicators of the low-temperature and drought cross-stress in maize is basically in line with the actual situation. Compared with the average temperature from May to September and the regional cold damage index of > 105 °C supplemented by the meteorological industry standard “Technical Specification for Assessment of Cold Damage to Spring Maize in Northern China”, as well as the identification results of the “Drought Grade of Spring Maize in Northern China”, the average identification accuracy of low-temperature drought cross-stress in Northeast China based on the WOFOST model is 82.0

Revealing the temporal and spatial evolution of potato climatic potential productivity in Heilongjiang Province, clarifying the effects of climate change, and understanding the yield increase potential of the dominant potato producing areas can provide basic reference for optimizing potato production layout and ensuring food security in black soil region. Based on daily meteorological data of 80 weather stations and the potato yield data in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020, the spatial and temporal variations of potato productivity were assessed through a step-by-step correction method, and the influential effects of the main climate change factors of radiation, air temperature and precipitation were quantified to optimize potato planting in the west of the Songnen Plain. The results showed that the average photosynthetic, light temperature and climatic potential productivity of potato in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020 were 28885, 25802and 13843 kg/hm~2, respectively. Photosynthetic, light temperature and climatic potential productivity exhibited insignificant upward, downward and downward trend, respectively, and the trends were consistent with the trends of radiation, temperature and precipitation in the potential growth period. The photosynthetic and light temperature productivity of potato increased gradually from north to south, and the high value area was located in the south of the Songnen Plain and the south of Mudanjiang; the climatic potential productivity decreased from the middle to the periphery; the effects of climate change on potato climatic potential productivity were as follows: the radiation effect was positive, while the combined effects of temperature, precipitation and climate change were mainly negative. For areas with low rainfall in the south of the Songnen Plain, the increase of temperature and precipitation had positive effect on the improvement of potato climatic potential productivity,while for areas with high precipitation in the east of the Songnen Plain, the effects were more harmful than beneficial. Because of the superior climate and land resources in the west of the Songnen Plain, there is still a huge increase potential of yield per unit area in potato planting.

利用黑龙江省1981～2014年80个站点气象资料、44个县市的玉米产量资料和31个农业气象站玉米生育期资料,通过气象要素膨化处理,应用积分回归建立5～7月以旬为时间尺度的玉米产量动态评估模型.根据业务需求将全省划分为4个区域,用1981～2010年资料进行模型准确率回代检验,并用2011～2014年资料进行预估.结果表明,全省平均回代准确率为87.4％,Ⅱ区最高为89.9％,Ⅰ区和Ⅳ区次之,分别为89.5％和87.8％,Ⅲ区最低为82.5％;预估平均准确率也达到87.4％Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区模型评估准确率分别为91.5％和92.0％,均好于Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区.

基于1971,2017年黑龙江省松嫩平原40站的逐日气象观测数据及马铃薯发育期观测数据,计算松嫩平原温度、降水、日照及综合气候适宜度,并分析其时空分布特征,揭示其变化规律,以期为马铃薯生产提供科学依据.结果表明:1971,2017年松嫩平原马铃薯各生育阶段温度适宜度分布规律不同,从播种至可收期各生育阶段的平均温度适宜度在0.93以上,且年际间变化微小;降水适宜度地区差异较大、年际间变化剧烈,47年间播种-出苗期、花序形成-开花期为微弱上升趋势,出苗-分枝期、分枝-花序形成期、开花-可收期为略下降趋势;日照适宜度自西北向东南逐渐下降,年际间差异较小,且均呈现略下降的趋势;马铃薯生长发育的大部分时期气候适宜度自西向东逐渐升高,松嫩平原西部气候适宜度较低,基本在0.80以下,而松嫩平原东部气候适宜度相对较高,在0.8以上.松嫩平原的东部和北部相对于西部来说更适宜马铃薯的生长,且影响气候适宜度的主要因子为降水.

针对气候变化背景下高寒区大豆播种期生产布局的需要,利用高寒区140个气象站点1971-2018年逐日平均气温、最低气温和1971-2015年逐日平均0～5 cm土层地温资料,对气温稳定通过8℃初日、0～5 cm土层地温稳定通过8℃、9℃、10℃初日、≥10℃活动积温的变化进行分析,选取适宜高寒区大豆播种期的气象指标,并进行高寒区大豆播种期的空间优化.结果表明:近48年高寒区气温稳定通过8℃初日呈明显提前趋势;1971-2015年0～5 cm土层地温稳定通过8℃、9℃、10℃初日提前,东四盟(内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔、兴安盟、通辽和赤峰)提前幅度最大,辽宁最小,空间上表现为初日由南向北递推,辽宁普遍最早,吉林和东四盟南部次之,黑龙江和东四盟中北部普遍较晚;0～5 cm土层地温稳定通过9℃可作为黑龙江、吉林和辽宁的大豆播种期气象指标,0～5 cm土层地温稳定通过10℃适合东四盟作为大豆播种期气象指标.综合大豆气象指标和品种熟性的高寒区播种期空间优化为应对气候变化及大豆生产布局起到积极的指导作用.

准确及时地监测作物干旱情况可为应对作物受灾减产提供策略,进而降低经济损失.研究基于重建的归一化植被指数(NDVI)和地表温度(LST)数据构建旱地作物生育期内LST-NDVI特征空间,计算温度植被干旱指数(TVDI),结合研究区实地观测数据对TVDI指数进行定量验证.结果表明,构建的NDVI-Ts特征空间散点图符合三角形关系,与前人研究结果相符;旱地作物不同生育阶段TVDI与土壤湿度均呈负相关性,表明TVDI具备反映研究区土壤湿润条件的能力;2017年黑龙江旱地作物生育期内各时段均有干旱状况发生,其中西部地区干旱发生频率和范围整体大于东部地区;TVDI与土壤相对湿度干旱等级判对率一致性达到90％以上.综上所述,基于MODIS数据构建的TVDI指数可以反映黑龙江省旱地作物干旱情况,研究可为作物生育期多时段干旱监测的业务化运行及为黑龙江省制定抗旱减灾策略提供科学参考依据.

黑龙江省春季土壤冻融剧烈,土壤湿度和温度受土壤冻融影响较大,利用黑龙江省64个气象观测站1961—2018年的逐日最高气温、最低气温、平均气温、降水量、地温资料及34个农气观测站人工观测的1981—2018年的土壤湿度资料,分析土壤冻结期间的气象要素变化,研究春季土壤冻融过程中湿度和温度的变化.结果表明:土壤冻结期从北向南缩短,且逐年缩短,冻结期平均气温从北向南升高,逐年上升,降水量西部少、东部和北部多,逐年增加;春季冻融次数平原少、山区多,逐年减少.春季融雪开始日期由北向南提前,并且呈现逐年提前的趋势,融雪期升温速率北部、东部低,中部、南部高;在春季冻融过程中,土壤湿度随着土壤深度的增加而增多,东部土壤湿度受土壤融冻影响最大;在整个冬季土壤冻结期间,北部、中部及东部土壤湿度是增加的,且随着土壤深度的增加,土壤湿度增加的越多,而西部土壤湿度是减少的,且随着土壤深度的增加,土壤湿度减少的越少;春季土壤冻融期间,0 cm平均地温全省平均在-17.3～22.1℃之间,南部与全省变化趋势基本一致,升温趋势明显,而北部升温速度明显慢于南部.

针对农业信息服务中大范围水田、旱田种植面积信息调查业务的现状与需求,以黑龙江省为研究区,通过分析水田、旱田作物发育期特征、MODIS数据植被指数(NDVI、EVI、LSWI)时序特征,引入积温条件分区构建决策规则,提取检测农田与其他、水田与旱田作物种植的空间分布.以实地调查地面验证点对分类结果进行验证,结果表明,分类结果达到了较高的识别精度,分类结果的总体精度为90.68％,Kappa系数为0.81,其中水稻制图精度为81.13％,用户精度为97.73％;旱地制图精度为98.46％,用户精度为87.07％;与不考虑积温条件相比,分类结果总体精度提高了12.77％,水稻制图精度提高了22.57％,旱地制图精度提高了5.94％.本研究通过引入积温条件,提高了大范围水稻、旱地作物提取精度,具有自动化程度高、分类结果稳定的特点.

研究旨在估算黑龙江省典型日光温室气候生产潜力,分析其时空分布特征,以期使有限的气候资源得到充分高效的利用,为设施农业的稳产高产提供科学依据.利用温室内外的观测数据,建立温室内温度预测模型,模拟1961-2020年温室内温度,对黄秉维光合生产潜力估算模型进行修订,得到日光温室内的光合和光温生产潜力模型,计算1961-2020年不同地区的气候生产潜力并分析其分布规律.结果表明:研究时间段内林甸和友谊的天气类型每月晴天居多,其次为阴天,多云天气相对较少;建立了代表站点典型日光温室平均气温预测模型,均通过信度检验(P≤0.05);黑龙江省日光温室1961-2020年温室生产季节光合生产潜力和光温生产潜力时空分布规律基本一致,均是由东北向西南逐渐增大,且逐年减小,5月最高,12月最低.光合生产潜力最小值出现在2015年,最大值出现在2020年,光温生产潜力最小值出现在1995年,最大值出现在2020年.该研究获得了黑龙江省不同地区典型日光温室1961-2020年的气候生产潜力分布,以期为当地日光温室生产布局提供科学依据.

为定量评估黑龙江省大豆气候生产潜力的变化特征,明晰大豆增产潜力,优化大豆种植空间.选取黑龙江省1971-2019年61个气象站点逐日气象资料和对应产量资料,采用逐步订正法、线性趋势分析等方法,研究大豆光合、光温和气候生产潜力的时空变化特征,分析辐射、气温和降水等气候要素变化对大豆气候生产潜力的影响,估算大豆增产潜力.采用自然断点法将大豆增产潜力进行分区,引导黑龙江省大豆种植空间优化.结果 表明:黑龙江省大豆光合、光温和气候生产潜力平均值分别为7121.0,4677.1和3074.3 kg· hm-2;光合生产潜力呈下降趋势-6.4 kg·hm-2 ·10a-1,光温和气候生产潜力表现为极显著的上升趋势,分别为152.3和102.8 kg·hm-2·10a-1;大豆气候生产潜力空间上表现为由南向北递减趋势,高值区集中在松嫩平原东部;气候要素变化对大豆气候生产潜力影响不同,气温变化对大豆气候生产潜力的影响为正效应,辐射和降水变化对大豆气候生产潜力影响空间差异显著,辐射变化对平原地区大豆气候生产潜力为负效应,降水变化对对黑龙江省两大平原表现为正效应;根据气候生产潜力将黑龙江省划分为5个种植潜力区,松嫩平原和三江平原西部为黑龙江省大豆种植的优势和较优潜力区,可适当增加种植规模.

利用黑龙江省80个站1961-2017年器测蒸发量观测资料及常规气象观测资料,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendal突变分析、数理统计和Mexican hat小波分析等方法,分析了黑龙江省年和四季器测蒸发量的时空演变特征,并探讨了其与气候因子的关系.结果 表明:黑龙江省年蒸发量的空间分布的地理特征明显,其值随纬度、经度、海拔高度的增加而递减,递减率分别为55.4 mm/°N、45.2 mm/°°、88.8mm/(100m).1961-2017年,黑龙江省年蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,降幅达13.7mm/(10a),存在8a和24 a周期,全省下降趋势站点比例达70.0％,其中62.5％站点的下降趋势通过0.05的显著性水平检验,远超上升站点比例,总体存在"蒸发悖论".季节间对照发现,春季蒸发量降幅较大且趋势极显著,存在24 a、准2 a周期,有67个站点表现为下降趋势,其中44个站呈显著下降趋势(P＜0.05);夏季、秋季的降幅较小且变化不显著,均存在7 a周期;冬季则表现为小幅不显著的增加趋势,存在24、11、2 a周期,有23站冬季蒸发量呈显著上升趋势.突变检验发现,年、春季、冬季蒸发量存在明显的突变时间,夏季和冬季则无明显突变.年、季节蒸发量与平均温度、风速存在正相关关系,与相对湿度存在负相关关系.风速显著下降是导致年蒸发量显著减少的主导因素,风速显著下降及增湿明显的叠加作用,致使春季蒸发量的下降趋势更显著,而气候的暖干化使得冬季蒸发量呈较弱的上升趋势.

为了合理规避极端降水带来的洪涝灾害,有效保障水稻安全生产.本研究基于黑龙江省69个气象台站1971-2016年降水资料和历史洪涝记载资料,利用方差分析和Mann-Kendall检验方法,分析了黑龙江省水稻生长季极端降水和洪涝时空演变特征.结果 表明:(1)极端降水指数(EPI)5月、6月和9月在2010s最突出,7月和10月在1990s最突出,8月在1980s最突出;(2)根据典型因子,7月多雨时段为1990s,8月多雨时段为1980s;(3)水稻洪涝多发生在7月,7月和8月水稻洪涝历史高发时段分别为1990s和1980s.

利用1981—2005年黑龙江省13个玉米观测站资料,采用聚类分析及典型年分析法,研究玉米播种下限温度指标,并用2006—2018年观测数据及大田分期播种试验数据对指标进行验证.研究表明,地温是玉米大田播种的主要影响因子,日10 cm平均地温可以作为最低温度界限指标的指示值.日10 cm平均地温6.0℃为玉米不能播种的最低界限指标;日10 cm平均地温6.0～8.0℃为玉米可以播种的最低界限指标,少数玉米遭受低温灾害;日10 cm平均地温8.0℃为玉米安全播种的最低界限指标.

黑龙江省现为我国最大的水稻产区和商品稻区,但河流众多,且夏季多大雨、暴雨,较易形成涝灾.为了研究洪涝灾害对寒地水稻产量的影响,于2017年通过田间淹水试验,分析寒地水稻关键生育期不同淹水深度、淹水历时造成的结实率和产量差异.结果表明:龙粳31在拔节孕穗期、抽穗开花期和乳熟期经淹水处理后,产量和结实率均有不同程度的下降,并随着淹水深度的增加和淹水历时的延长而明显下降,淹水深度达植株高度的2/3 - 3/3,淹水历时为3 -7 d,产量损失约31.1％ - 65.2％.方差分析表明:龙粳31和龙稻18在全淹没下的结实率、产量极显著(P＜0.01)低于植株高度2/3、1/3的淹水深度,淹水历时为7d的结实率极显著(P＜0.01)低于3d的淹水历时.水稻在较深的淹水条件下,长时间的淹水胁迫会加速结实率和产量的下降.当田间积水深度达25 cm,且淹水时间超过3d时,会造成水稻结实率和产量的下降,而淹水深度为25 - 50 cm或以上,淹水历时超过3d时,将造成水稻结实率和产量的明显下降.

2018年在黑龙江省庆安县选用寒地水稻龙粳31品种进行淹水试验,在拔节孕穗期、抽穗开花期,分别设定3个淹水深度(1/3株高、2/3株高、3/3株高)、2个淹水历时(3 d、7 d)共12个淹水处理,测定淹水前后的株高、叶面积、干物质及收获后的每穗粒数、结实率、千粒重及产量等.结果表明:水稻淹水后,株高、叶面积指数、干物质平均增长量基本高于同时期对照组,在一定程度上可以说明适度的淹涝胁迫对水稻植株生长具有促进作用,拔节孕穗期各项与对照组相比的增长程度均低于抽穗开花期;不同淹涝胁迫均导致水稻减产,拔节孕穗期全淹没7 d减产最严重,穗结实粒数仅55粒,千粒重16.9 g,远低于对照,减产率高达70％,抽穗开花期全淹没7 d减产也较严重,穗结实粒数为71粒,千粒重略低,但单位面积有效穗数最少,为2.83×106穗,减产率达57％;淹水深度1/3 h、2/3 h、3/3 h处理的平均减产率依次为16％、18％、48％,淹水持续3 d、7 d的平均减产率分别为21％、33％,可见随着淹水深度加深、淹水历时加长,水稻减产幅度加大;淹涝胁迫条件下,拔节孕穗期水稻产量的下降幅度大于抽穗开花期,导致两个发育期减产的主要产量构成因素分别为穗结实粒数、单位面积有效穗数.

基于黑龙江省78个气象站1971-2016年逐日降水资料,综合采用墨西哥帽小波分析、Hurst指数分析等方法,对黑龙江省作物生长季(5-9月)降水量变化和未来趋势进行分析及预测.结果 表明:1971-2016年,黑龙江省生长季、5月、6月降水量存在7a、14 a、7a左右的主周期,7月、8月、9月降水量存在2a、3a、7a左右的第1主周期及6a、11a、21 a左右的第2主周期,各月均存在最近几年降水偏多的趋势;作物生长季降水量年际间为波动式振荡变化,7月、8月振荡幅度相对较大.年代际变化总体存在增加一减少一增加趋势,20世纪80年代、90年代降水量普遍偏多,2010年以来出现急转升高变化;单站各月Hurst指数均在0.5以上,降水存在比较明显的赫斯特现象;降水主要出现在夏季且以7月最为集中,最近几年降水偏多、7月异常降水集中以及主要流域未来7月降水的持续增加趋势在农业防灾减灾上值得关注.

Heilongjiang is one of the main growing areas of soybean in China. Due to factors such as natural geographical location and climate, drought is one of primary determinant agro-meteorological disasters which constrains growth, development and the formation of soybean yield in Heilongjiang. Utilizing soil moisture data of 32 stations and soybean growth data of 26 stations from 1981 to 2017, the frequency of different grades of droughts, average intensity of drought, and drought risk indices are calculated. Spatio-temporal characteristics are analyzed from 5 regions in Heilongjiang, based on recognized hazard indicators on disaster grades of droughts for soybean from the meteorological industry standard which is released by China Meteorological Administration in 2018. Assessment and distribution of drought risk on the basis of occurrence frequency and intensity for soybean are pertained. Results show that the occurrence frequency of light drought is higher than that of severe and excessive drought for soybean. West region is an area where drought of soybean occurs frequently, centeral region takes the second place, and the other regions have relatively fewer drought occurrences. As for drought intensity, it's the highest in centeral region, the next is in west region, and the lowest drought intensity is in norht region. Moreover, the drought intensity in three-leaf to pod-bearing stage of soybean is higher than that in early and late growth stages in east, north and west regions. While in west and south regions, drought intensity during pod-bearing to maturity stage exceeds that in early stages. Drought risk indexes are negative. The lower number of risk index correlates with greater drought risk. The highest risk area is west region, the next is centeral region, and the last is norht region. It is an opportunity to seek the use of drought risk index as an indicator of drought risk of soybean. Considering the drought risk in different growth stages of soybean, the highest drought risk periods are flowering to pod bearing stages, and the drought risk of soybean is lowest in sowing to emerging stage. Areas of medium to high drought risk lie in the west of Songnen Plain and southwest of Sanjiang Plain in space through the whole growth period of soybean. And the others are low or slight drought risk regions. These results may provide guidance for soybean drought prevention, loss reduction and planting structure adjustment in Heilongjiang. It is strongly advised to strengthen the prediction and prevention of drought, especially in critical growth stages of soybean in two main plains.

旨在选出一套适合黑龙江不同区域水稻低温冷害预测方法,为相关部门制定粮食生产和调整农作物种植结构提供科学依据.选择黑龙江省11个水稻农气观测站为研究对象,利用1971-2016年的气温资料、74类大气环流资料、水稻发育期数据,将黑龙江省划分为东、西、南3个区域,分别建立逐步回归预测模型、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型和均生函数预测模型,预测黑龙江水稻生育期总热量指数并进行对比分析.结果 表明:建立的3种预测模型通过了残差检验,1971-2010年拟合平均准确率均在95％以上,结果差异不大;2011-2016年的试报准确率为85％～99％,其中GM(1,1)灰色预测模型准确率(97％～99％)高于逐步回归预测模型(91％～97％)和均生函数预测模型(85％～95％).通过3种预测方法对比结果显示,GM(1,1)灰色预测模型模拟效果最好.

本文旨在分析黑龙江省富裕县农田土壤相对湿度对玉米发育期和产量的影响,以期为松嫩平原西部玉米生产提供科学参考.以黑龙江省富裕县为研究区域,利用1982-2017年土壤相对湿度资料、1995-2017年玉米发育期资料、玉米产量资料,采用对比分析、相关分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验法,分析土壤相对湿度变化特征,研究土壤相对湿度对玉米发育期和产量的影响.结果 表明:富裕县近36 a土壤相对湿度呈增加—减小—增加的趋势.播种期—出苗期、拔节期—抽雄期、乳熟期—成熟期土壤干旱平均每4-6 a一遏,抽雄期—乳熟期每2-3 a一遇,出苗期—拔节期土壤基本无旱.各发育期土壤相对湿度减小的突变年在1987年前后,增加的突变年在2013年前后.20世纪80年代土壤较适宜,干旱轻,90年代土壤相对湿度迅速下降,干旱最重,之后随着年代的推移土壤干旱逐渐减轻.玉米主要发育期中播种期—出苗期、出苗期—拔节期土壤干旱对产量影响较小,拔节期—成熟期是土壤干旱影响产量的主要时期.