The author used the production data of meat ducks collected by the FAO and the national waterfowl industry technical system statistics, and used the ARIMA model to predict the slaughter volume and meat prices of ducks in China. The results showed that the price of meat ducks will continue to gradually increase from 2017 to 2020, but the price will not reach the historically high level of 10 000 yuan/t. Additionally, the duck slaughter volume of our country will also continue to gradually increase, whose total slaughter volume will be maintained at around 2.3 billion. On the whole, the total stock of meat and duck industry will show a steady growth trend. On the other hand, the growth of meat duck price will be more tortuous than the increase of slaughter volume of meat ducks. Based on this, in order to ensure the stable and sustainable development of the industry and the stable price of meat duck products, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward for future development of the meat duck industry.

利用1991～2014年联合国粮农组织与国家水禽产业技术体系统计的肉鹅生产数据,运用ARIMA模型对我国肉鹅的出栏量、鹅肉产量和活鹅价格进行了预测.综合预测结果表明:2018～2020年鹅出栏量的平均值为5.1亿只,鹅肉产量为312.4万吨,活鹅价格为22 118.8元/吨,相比2014年存栏量、产肉量与活鹅价格都有所增加.基于该综合预测结果,以促进肉鹅产业平稳度过调整期走向更加优化的产业结构为目标,对肉鹅产业今后的发展提出了相关的政策建议.

在分析1991～2016年肉鸭市场数据的基础上,通过对我国肉鸭市场供给与需求的影响因素进行研究,分析相关因素之间的相互影响程度,利用多元线性回归的分析方法,探究各种因素对产肉量的影响程度.结果表明:国内市场价格对于肉鸭产肉量的正向影响最大,其次是国际进口量和国内生产总值,而国际出口量对国内产肉量的影响为负.建议各生产企业或农户可以将市场价格作为未来生产计划的首要参考因素.