信息流广告飞速发展的同时用户广告回避愈发普遍，然而传统广告回避结论无法平移到该情 境。本研究基于用户动态的信息加工视角，试图探讨(1)动态信息加工状态下(收敛式 vs 发散 式)产生广告屏蔽和广告跳过行为的内在机制；(2)采用归因引导重定向策略，挖掘用户屏蔽 广告的“残留效应”所带来的信号价值；(3)采用广告凸显重定向策略，突破用户跳过广告的“学 习效应”造成的负面影响。丰富现有理论的同时，为信息流广告的响应式优化提供理论和决 策支持。

As an emerging form of online display advertising, in-feed native advertising is increasingly employed in online news feed platforms. While many advertisers have largely embraced this new advertising format, the current research is full of controversy on whether the more native, the better the effect of in-feed native advertising. Based on recent studies on this emerging topic, the authors explore the effective in-feed native advertising persuasion strategies based on consumers' dynamic online browsing modes. In study 1, the authors conducted an archived-data analysis (in co-operation with Baidu company). Results show that the match between in-feed native advertising persuasion style (implicit vs. explicit) and consumers' real-time news feed browsing modes (convergent vs. divergent) can improve ad performance. In study 2, the authors further explained why consumers under different browsing modes respond differently (the mediation effect of self-agency vs. external agency) to specific in-feed native advertising persuasion. Our work explores the boundaries of agency theory from a dynamic perspective and helps advertisers conduct real-time and effective targeting strategies.

本研究旨在探究食品企业社交媒体传播的微博特征对在线口碑的驱动作用.研究基于深度机器学习算法,采用言语行为理论和自然语言处理技术提取了个人食品品牌和产品食品品牌微博中的用户信息、时间信息和文本信息,构建了美食相关的食品企业微博影响力的随机森林预测模型,并对模型进行了训练和评估.实验结果表明整体预测模型(结果)的准确率为87.37％,可以出色完成预测任务,各微博特征均会对预测模型的准确性产生积极影响,相对而言用户信息是最为重要的预测特征.研究结果有助于食品企业了解消费者的关注内容,为食品企业的社交媒体营销实践提供参考,发布更具影响力的微博,为品牌微博发布提供科学的指导.

为探究新冠疫情对消费者畜禽产品购买偏好的影响,本研究运用选择实验的方法,基于网络问卷形式获得湖北武汉、河南郑州、湖南长沙、浙江杭州4个城市934位消费者行为数据,采用混合logit模型进行数据分析.结果表明:从区域上看,不同区域消费者对线上渠道偏好存在差异,相对于轻度疫情区域,重度疫情区域的消费者对线上渠道偏好显著,对时间成本负向偏好明显,且对各属性的支付意愿均较高;从产品上看,消费者对不同产品的支付意愿存在差异,对具有品牌属性的产品支付意愿最高,可追溯信息属性次之,且同一区域内猪肉的支付意愿高于鸡肉.因此,畜禽产品零售企业应促进线上线下协同发力,提高效率吸引消费者;加强与完善可追溯畜禽产品的品牌建设;合理细分产品和区域,逐步拓展可追溯产品市场.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">社会化商务社区中买家对卖家的关系构建具有重要的商业价值。以往的研究多从静态视角探讨买家与卖家关系的构建与维持,忽略了买家与卖家的关系是动态变化的,不同关系状态下的影响机制仍不得而知。针对这一问题,本研究爬取了为期14个月的淘宝帮派用户行为数据,构建出关系涌现和关系维持两个阶段的数据集,基于网络闭包理论从动态视角探讨了社区中买家对卖家的关系演化机制。研究结果表明,在关系涌现阶段,信息性社会影响和状态同质性社会选择是用户选择关注卖家的主要驱动因素;而在关系维持阶段,规范性社会影响比信息性社会影响更能够促进买家对卖家关系的维持,基于价值同质性的社会选择比基于状态同质性的社会选择更能够促进买家对卖家关系的维持。另外,该研究也探讨了买家用户的社区经验在关系演化的不同阶段对上述效应的调节作用。本文从网络动态演化的视角对传统网络闭包理论的作用边界和场景进一步拓展,相关结论对社会化商务社区关系的构建与维护具有一定的指导意义。</span>

品牌认知是品牌资产的重要组成部分,但推断品牌认知度的传统方法需要大量手工注释和上下文定制,成本高昂且结果容易过时.研究采用一种全自动、 实时性、 动态化的全新算法对128个食品品牌账户、424个属性示例账户,共5500多万条粉丝数据进行分析,旨在通过企业的社交网络关系推断品牌认知度.研究通过文本分析和因子分析,对食品企业的品牌认知进行识别和细分,使用社交感知得分算法计算出各属性评级,实证检验了各属性评级对产品销量的影响,并将算法的自动评级结果和调研数据进行比较,检验算法的稳健性.结果表明:食品企业的关键认知属性包括营养健康属性、 休闲时尚属性、 口感属性和绿色安全属性;各感知属性评级均会对产品销量产生正向影响;社交感知得分评级结果与线下调研结果具有显著的相关性,算法具有较强的稳健性.

This study explores how the crisis of different agricultural brands impacts on the network spillover effects, and examines the influence of the brand types (strong and weak) and the brand crisis types (incompetence and immorality) on network spillover effects and their mechanisms. The results indicate that, when incompetence negative events occur, compared to the weak brand, the strong brand is more likely to have infectious network spillover effects. When the brand is in immorality crisis, compared to the strong brand, the weak brand is more likely to have comparative network spillover effects. Facing a strong brand of agricultural products, consumers have more protective motives. The protective motivation leads to infectious network spillover effects when incompetence negative events occur. When facing weak brands, consumers show up more accuracy motivations. Accuracy motivations lead to comparative network spillover effects when immorality negative events occur.

The effects of social influence on product adoption have been documented for new products and first-time adoptions. Few investigated whether social influence plays an important role in upgrade adoption. Unlike first-time adoption, consumers have gained product experience, so their perceived risks and uncertainty were less than in first-time adoption. To study the roles that social influence plays in first-time versus upgrade adoption, we implemented two experiments. Study 1 involved a lab experiment on whether social influence works in upgrade adoption. Study 2 implemented a field study to identify the effects of peer adoption of virtual goods, with 897,765 participants: 28,730 first-time adopters and 15,056 upgraders. The results offer four findings. First, the results show that social influence affected consumer upgrade decisions. Second, there were different effects of social influence in upgrade adoption: informative influence decays and normative influence rises from first-time to upgrade adoption. Third, the influential adopters (and upgraders) vary across the stages. Well-connected adopters exerted stronger influence than less-connected ones in first-time adoption, and upgraders with higher homophily relative to non-upgraders exerted influence in upgrade adoption. Fourth, the susceptibility to influence of non-adopters (non-upgraders) also varied in the different stages. Less-connected non-adopters were more susceptible in their first-time adoption, while non-upgraders with higher reciprocity were more susceptible in their upgrade decision. These results extend our understanding of social influence, especially in different adoption contexts. This research also can help marketers identify influential adopters to facilitate online marketing campaigns.

探讨企业如何选择适宜的社会责任沟通策略来缓解产品伤害危机造成的负面影响.共计开展两项实验,结果发现,危机类型与企业社会责任沟通策略之间存在交互作用,具体而言,当危机被消费者认为是有意为之时,反应型企业社会责任沟通策略能够获得消费者更加积极的企业态度;反之,当危机被消费者认为是无意造成时,前瞻型企业社会责任沟通策略能够获得消费者更加积极的企业态度.进一步分析显示,感知企业利他性中介了产品伤害危机类型与企业社会责任沟通策略对消费者企业态度的交互作用.

The author used the production data of meat ducks collected by the FAO and the national waterfowl industry technical system statistics, and used the ARIMA model to predict the slaughter volume and meat prices of ducks in China. The results showed that the price of meat ducks will continue to gradually increase from 2017 to 2020, but the price will not reach the historically high level of 10 000 yuan/t. Additionally, the duck slaughter volume of our country will also continue to gradually increase, whose total slaughter volume will be maintained at around 2.3 billion. On the whole, the total stock of meat and duck industry will show a steady growth trend. On the other hand, the growth of meat duck price will be more tortuous than the increase of slaughter volume of meat ducks. Based on this, in order to ensure the stable and sustainable development of the industry and the stable price of meat duck products, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward for future development of the meat duck industry.

利用1991～2014年联合国粮农组织与国家水禽产业技术体系统计的肉鹅生产数据,运用ARIMA模型对我国肉鹅的出栏量、鹅肉产量和活鹅价格进行了预测.综合预测结果表明:2018～2020年鹅出栏量的平均值为5.1亿只,鹅肉产量为312.4万吨,活鹅价格为22 118.8元/吨,相比2014年存栏量、产肉量与活鹅价格都有所增加.基于该综合预测结果,以促进肉鹅产业平稳度过调整期走向更加优化的产业结构为目标,对肉鹅产业今后的发展提出了相关的政策建议.

In order to explore the customer's most concerned product attributes and the differences in the preferences of online comments on cooked food sales,waterfowl cooked food was selected as research object by collecting one month of consumer reviews on 14 kinds of waterfowl cooked food brand.And the attributes of all the comments are classified,and the influence mechanism of the online sales of waterfowl food products is tested on their quantitative attribute score.The results show that:1)Consumers are most concerned about the quality and safety attributes of cooked food products,and the preference differences in waterfowl reviews have a negative effect on sales.2)Word of mouth polarity and reputation weakens the impact of differences in preferences to some extent,thereby increase sales of products.On this basis,suggestions are proposed that the waterfowl cooked food manufacturers need to take into account of product quality,product safety and other aspects to enhance the overall quality of product,improve the product's reputation and word of mouth polarity and thereby enhance product sales.

从情理法的本土视角将农产品伤害危机划分为违情和违法两种类型,并基于三个实验的416份消费者实验数据,采用SPSS22.0的配对样本T检验、独立样本T检验、方差分析等方法分析不同类型的农产品伤害危机事件导致的品类网络溢出效应差异及社会距离和亲社会倾向的调节作用.结果表明:相比于违法型农产品伤害危机,违情型农产品伤害危机会导致更强烈的品类网络溢出效应;社会距离和亲社会倾向两个变量起调节作用,社会距离越近或亲社会倾向越高,违情型农产品伤害危机与违法型农产品伤害危机造成的品类溢出效应差异更大.

As online shopping evolves from being primarily transactional to being more relational, sellers aim to form online relationships. This article investigates online relationship formation, identifies the performance payoffs that result from forming different types of online relationships (unilateral vs. reciprocal), and tests the most effective relationship-building strategies. Study 1, based on a longitudinal buyer-level analysis of an online shopping community, reveals that buyers use community-, seller-, and buyer-generated signals to identify suitable relationship partners and reduce online shopping risk. These signals generally diminish in importance as buyers gain experience but become more important when buyers are forming reciprocal relationships. Study 2 evaluates the dynamic payoffs of online relationship formation (seller-level analysis) on sales; the effect on sales of reciprocal relationships is three times greater and lasts seven times longer than that of seller-initiated, unilateral relationships. Study 3 is a field experiment testing managerially actionable strategies for leveraging relationships to grow online sales. Tenets arising from differences between online and offline relationships, together with the results from the three studies, inform an emerging theory of online relationships.

In the age of social media, an increasing number of firms have begun to host online brand communities (OBCs) to strengthen their relationship with their consumers. Despite the popularity of firm-hosted OBCs, building a successful online brand community is still a challenge for every firm because of the nature of voluntary participation. This paper introduces an organizational socialization approach to promote sustained member participation, a deciding factor for the success of online communities. Based on theory of organizational socialization, this study identifies three typical socialization tactics employed by sponsors of OBCs (i.e., member education, interaction support, and participation feedback). Further, we present an empirical study to examine their effects on members' membership continuance intention using the data collected from several firm-hosted OBCs. The mediator role of community identification and the moderator role of membership duration are investigated, and theoretical and managerial implications for community management are discussed.

近几年我国水禽业得到了迅速发展,但国内肉鸭产品同质化严重,市场风险处于较高的水平.目前水禽产品市场细分中主要面临的难题包括地域性限制,其他禽肉类产品的替代性风险以及良种繁育与多元化市场需求的不匹配.本研究通过对水禽产品消费市场线上线下结合调查的设计实现对水禽消费市场需求的实时监控,包括基于全国各个地区的综合试验站和相关水禽产业主管部门的重点调查和抽样调查以及基于消费者网络评论数据的文本分析和社会网络分析方法,获取水禽消费市场的竞争结构,最终为水禽产品的市场细分提供依据,降低市场风险.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">意见领袖是社会网络中具有重要影响力的节点,比其他人拥有更多的网络关系,以往的研究主要关注的是意见领袖的识别和影响,而对于意见领袖的形成机制却少有探讨。为了回答这一问题,本文首先将意见领袖所依存的网络划分为社交网络和消费咨询网络;与社交网络（例如微信）相比,消费咨询网络（例如美丽说、蘑菇街）信息分享和获取的特点更为突出,并且网络关系不再是现实人际关系反映,而是代表了信息的流动。在这一研究情境下,本文分析了网络节点的信息创造和网络结构对于网络关系构建以及意见领袖形成的影响。基于13年的网络演化数据的实证分析显示,（1）创造和提供信息能够显著地提升关系构建的概率和关系数量的累积,从而推动意见领袖的形成;（2）并且高质量的负面信息所带来的效果更大;（3）偏好连接、结构等价、互惠性和相似性等网络结构变量也能够很好地预测潜在关系建立的概率;（4）从最终网络关系演化的结果看,信息创造和网络结构对意见领袖和非意见领袖的关系构建影响力大小存在差异。</span>

Social commerce communities connect sellers and buyers and allow them to seek and share product information. Although the extant literature has realized its economic value, there has been little research on the antecedents of network closure in social commerce community with longitudinal network data. Based on the evolving network data from Taobao.com and network closure theory, this research analyzes network closure among sellers and buyers in social commerce community and we find that the drivers of network closure in social commerce communities vary across different types of relationships. Specifically, (1) from the buyers' perspective, they are more likely to follow other buyers and sellers through observational learning and contagion; (2) from the sellers' perspective, the homophily, reciprocity, and structural equivalence are the general mechanisms that drive them following both buyers and sellers; (3) the results from the robustness checks show that the findings would not be affected by the sample size or the duration of the observations.This study contributes to the ongoing study of social networks analysis in social shopping and social commerce. Furthermore, the ties studied in this research connect both sellers and buyers, which are different from the ties of friendship in most social network literatures. Findings from this research will also help marketers better understand how social commerce community networks evolve and adjust their relationship management strategies.

病毒式营销是企业在社会化商务背景下广泛采取的一种社会化营销策略,以往的研究往往基于消费者所嵌入的社会网络,运用ABMS(agent-based model simulation,ABMS)仿真技术模拟社会影响机制下的口碑传播绩效.但在社会化商务背景下逐渐发展起来的交易型社区外在的网络结构(具有双模特性)和内在的成员心理机制(以信息型影响为主导)与传统的社会网络有本质区别.本研究以国内最大的交易型网站(淘宝网)为平台,基于爬虫技术获取其中两个交易型社区(淘宝帮派)中全部成员的人际关系和社区活动数据,通过ABMS仿真实验探讨了社会影响机制(基于人际间的口碑传播)、同质性机制(以社区活动为载体的传播)和社区的网络拓扑结构对这些社区的病毒式营销绩效的影响.研究发现:(1)不考虑每一个社区成员顾客价值的差异,初始节点规模的增加(0.5％～5％)并不会增强扩散传播的效果(因为初始节点影响范围的重叠性);(2)在控制了网络密度的随机网络实验中,基于社会影响机制的扩散与基于同质性机制的扩散效果差异显著;(3)当改变网络拓扑结构为真实网络时,社会影响和同质性影响的扩散差异依然显著.特别要提到的是,同质性机制虽然在初期会显著提升扩散速度,但由于受到社区活动数量的限制,其最终的扩散范围却没有基于社会影响扩散的范围广;(4)探讨初始节点类型的选择对扩散绩效影响的实验表明,相对于随机选取的节点,选择那些在双模网络中同时占据中心位置的成员会显著提升传播扩散的速度直至“饱和效应(saturation effect)”的出现.

Opinion leaders are influential nodes in networks, possessing more links than others. While previous research mainly focuses on identification and consequences of opinion leaders, surprisingly rare research addresses their emergence. To resolve this question, we divide the networks in which opinion leaders thrive into two categories, namely social networks and consumer advice network. Compare with social networks (e.g. Wechat), consumer advice networks (e.g. Meilishuo, Mogujie) have more prominent properties of information sharing and acquisition with network links reflecting information flow instead of interpersonal relations. Based on this context, we investigated the effect of information generating and network structure on link formation and opinion leadership emergence. Empirical analysis derived from 13-year-long network evolution data indicates that (1) information generating and sharing can positively improve the probability of link formation and thus the accumulation of links, resulting in higher opinion leadership; (2) high-quality negative information exerts stronger influence than positive information; (3) network structure variables, such as preferential attachment, structural equivalence, reciprocity and similarity are also good predictors of link formation; (4) the magnitude of effect brought by information generating and network structure varies for opinion leaders and non-opinion leaders.