Developing nations encounter significant challenges in accessing the necessary finance to meet climate goals. The emerging ‘Data-to-Deal’ approach is a collaborative effort by 60 specialists, which aims to address this by providing a flexible framework of options, tailored to individual country circumstances, aiming to enhance core functions and capabilities; it serves as a basis for concrete action, informing capacity building, technical assistance, and research. This paper argues for the mainstreaming of a holistic approach to accessing climate finance by outlining the components of the Data-to- Deal pipeline and showing the effectiveness of Data-to-Deal through the demonstration of its successful implementation in Costa Rica.
The Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems (CLEWs) approach guides the development of integrated assess-ments. The approach includes an analytical component that can be performed using simple accounting methods, soft-linking tools, incorporating cross-systems considerations in sectoral models, or using one modelling tool to represent CLEW systems. This paper describes how a CLEWs quantitative analysis can be performed using one single modelling tool, the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Although OSeMOSYS was pri-marily developed for energy systems analysis, the tool's functionality and flexibility allow for its application to CLEWs. A step-by-step explanation of how climate, land, energy, and water systems can be represented with OSeMOSYS, complemented with the interpretation of sets, parameters, and variables in the OSeMOSYS code, is provided. A hypothetical case serves as the basis for developing a modelling exercise that exemplifies the building of a CLEWs model in OSeMOSYS. System-centred scenario analysis is performed with the integrated model example to illustrate its application. The analysis of results shows how integrated insights can be derived from the quantitative exercise in the form of conflicts, trade-offs, opportunities, and synergies. In addition to the modelling exercise, using the OSeMOSYS-CLEWs example in teaching, training and open science is explored to support knowledge transfer and advancement in the field.
Energy modelling is the process of using mathematical models to develop abstractions and then seek insights into future energy systems. It can be an abstract academic activity. Or, it can insert threads that influence our development. We argue therefore, that energy modelling that provides policy support (EMoPS) should not only be grounded in rigorous analytics, but also in good governance principles. As, together with other policy actions, it should be accountable. Almost all aspects of society and much of its impact on the environment are influenced by our use of energy. In this context, EMoPS can inspire, motivate, calibrate, and ‘post assess’ energy policy. But, such modeling is often undertaken by too few analysts under time and resource pressure. Building on the advances of ‘class leaders’, we propose that EMoPS should reach for practical goals — including engagement and accountability with the communities it involves, and those it will later affect. (We use the term Ubuntu, meaning ‘I am because you are’ to capture this interdependency). We argue that Ubuntu, together with retrievability, repeatability, reconstructability, interoperability and auditability (U4RIA) of EMoPS should be used to signal the beginnings of a new default practice. We demonstrate how the U4RIA principles can contribute in practice using recent modelling of aspirational energy futures by Costa Rica as a case study. This modelling effort includes community involvement and interfaces and integrates stakeholder involvement. It leaves a trail that allows for its auditing and accountability, while building capacity and sustainable institutional memory.
Paraguay's power system is based entirely on hydropower. It serves as the largest net electricity exporter in Latin America. Nonetheless, the country´s electricity consumption per capita is one of the lowest in the world and the transmission and distribution network has one of the highest losses in Latin America. This paper presents an electricity expansion investment outlook (2018–2040) for Paraguay using OSeMOSYS, analyzing three electricity demand scenarios under different electricity export prices to Brazil. The study identifies the least-cost power generation mix, future investments and the financial requirements to meet the needs of different demand scenarios. We find that Paraguay will need to invest in hydropower plants, by mainly expanding the capacity of Yacyreta to cover its electricity needs and sustain national electricity exports levels. In the High demand scenario, where the electricity demand could approximately double by 2040, the country's overall electricity exports decrease by 50% compared to the Reference scenario. Based on the different scenarios examined, the government spends approximately 18.3–31.2 billion USD on power plant investments for the period 2018–2040 to cover future electricity demand. The findings could be useful in supporting decision-making concerning socio-economic development pathways in the country.
Currently available water-energy-food (WEF) modelling frameworks to analyse cross-sectoral interactions often share one or more of the following gaps: (a) lack of integration between sectors, (b) coarse spatial representation, and (c) lack of reproducible methods of nexus assessment. In this paper, we present a novel clustering tool as an expansion to the Climate-Land-Energy-Water-Systems modelling framework used to quantify inter-sectoral linkages between water, energy, and food systems. The clustering tool uses Agglomerative Hierarchical clustering to aggregate spatial data related to the land and water sectors. Using clusters of aggregated data reconciles the need for a spatially resolved representation of the land-use and water sectors with the computational and data requirements to efficiently solve such a model. The aggregated clusters, combined together with energy system components, form an integrated resource planning structure. The modelling framework is underpinned by an open-source energy system modelling tool—OSeMOSYS—and uses publicly available data with global coverage. By doing so, the modelling framework allows for reproducible WEF nexus assessments. The approach is used to explore the inter-sectoral linkages between the energy, land-use, and water sectors of Viet Nam out to 2030. A validation of the clustering approach confirms that underlying trends actual crop yield data are preserved in the resultant clusters. Finally, changes in cultivated area of selected crops are observed and differences in levels of crop migration are identified.
The use of biomass for renewable energy production is one alternative to reduce the environmental impacts of energy production worldwide. Sugarcane-based ethanol is one of the most widespread biofuels in the road transport sector and its development has been encouraged by strong incentives on production and use in several countries. The growing realization on the environmental impacts of ethanol production indicates the need to increase the efficient utilization of biomass resources by optimizing the production chain sustainably. This paper evaluates enhancements in the ethanol production chain quantitatively by identifying opportunities for agricultural intensification and investments in advanced biorefineries in a least-cost optimization model. Results of our model show that significant cost and environmental benefits can be achieved by modernizing sugarcane agriculture in Bolivia. Demands for ethanol and sugar can be met cost-effectively by increasing sugarcane yields from the current country-average of 55.34 ton/ha to 85.7 ton/ha in 2030 with a moderate cropland expansion of 11.4 thousand hectares in the period 2019-2030. Our results further suggest that it is cost-optimal to invest in efficient cogeneration in biorefineries to maximize the renewable energy output and the economic benefits of sugarcane ethanol. Finally, biofuel support in the range of 8-10 US$/GJ is required for investments in second-generation ethanol in biorefineries to be cost-competitive in the medium-term..
Population growth, urbanization and economic development drive the use of resources. Securing access to essential services such as energy, water, and food, while achieving sustainable development, require that policy and planning processes follow an integrated approach. The 'Climate-, Land-, Energy- and Water-systems' (CLEWs) framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. The approach was first introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an integrated systems analysis of a biofuel chain. The framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. Its multi-institutional application to the case of Mauritius in 2012 initiated the deployment of the framework. A vast number of completed and ongoing applications of CLEWs span different spatial and temporal scales, discussing two or more resource interactions under different political contexts. Also, the studies vary in purpose. This shapes the methods that support CLEWs-type analyses. In this paper, we detail the main steps of the CLEWs framework in perspective to its application over the years. We summarise and compare key applications, both published in the scientific literature, as working papers and reports by international organizations. We discuss differences in terms of geographic scope, purpose, interactions represented, analytical approach and stakeholder involvement. In addition, we review other assessments, which contributed to the advancement of the CLEWs framework. The paper delivers recommendations for the future development of the framework, as well as keys to success in this type of evaluations.
In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This paper considers hypothetical options for the transformation of the Bolivian power generation system to one that emits less carbon dioxide. Specifically, it evaluates the influence of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) when applying carbon taxation to the power sector. The study is illustrated with a bottom-up least-cost optimization model. Projections of key parameters influence the shape of MACCs and the underlying technology configurations. These are reported. Results from our study (and the set of assumptions on which they are based) are country-specific. Nonetheless, the methodology can be replicated to other case studies to provide insights into the role carbon taxes and lowering finance costs might play in reducing emissions.
Climate, Energy, Water and Land-use Systems (CLEWS) are closely integrated. Yet, most related decision and policy making occurs in disparate institutional entities, informed by relatively disconnected assessments of the individual resource systems. This paper presents the added value of an integrated analytical assessment approach. In doing so, it explicitly values various interdependencies and interactions between CLEWS primarily from an energy sector perspective. The island state of Mauritius was identified as a useful case study given its diverse climate, its increasing water stresses, and its policy focus on reshaping agricultural land-use and reducing fossil fuel imports. Several scenarios to 2030 were defined and analysed to demonstrate the tensions around the CLEWS nexus. Results from an assessment of the energy system with no modelled interlinkages to land-use, energy and water systems are first presented. Then, these are compared to those from an integrated CLEWS assessment. This serves to highlight important dynamics that would have been overlooked without such a systems approach. As an example, the added value of this approach is clearly demonstrated when rainfall reductions are taken into account, and where future land-use changes might occur. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cuba is located in the Caribbean Sea to the south of Florida (United Stated of America). Its geographic characteristic, lengthened and narrow, makes it especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather.Extreme events affect all economic sectors, including the energy sector. Depending on the nature of the event, some energy sources may be more adversely affected than others.The projected energy supply scenarios for Cuba foresee development of renewable energy sources up to their maximum potential and also nuclear energy towards end of the study period. Despite this, the energy sector will remain dominated by fossil fuels. Two scenarios, a Business as usual (or reference) and a GHG mitigation were assessed. In the GHG mitigation scenario the expected installed electricity capacity mix in 2030 will be: 62% fossil fuels, 20% wind, 8% biomass, 6% hydro and 4% nuclearThe study carried out an analysis of the vulnerability of these energy sources to the climate change and extreme events, and how climate change and climatic predictions should be taken into account in the country energy planning. A model was developed, based on available data, to identify the most relevant parameters and determine their relevance for the different energy sources and types of climate risk.Pollutant emissions were also assessed, pointing out the influence of the possible different alternatives.
The use of land, energy and water can contribute to climate change, which, in turn, affects the systems that provide those resources. Efficient resource management can limit climate impacts and support adaption practices. An approach integrating resource assessments and policy-making is proposed to manage land, energy and water effectively.
This paper discusses climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interactions in Burkina Faso. It shows that integrated assessments of resource use at the national level can provide important insights and benefits, especially for a resource constrained least developed country. Agricultural policy is shown to have strong implications for energy use, whereas energy policies are found to be strongly interrelated with water constraints. Without an integrated and coordinated approach, strategy and policy formulation efforts to increase energy, food and water security could become both incoherent and counter-productive.
Successfully developing and manufacturing industrial products requires considering the economic- and environmental-factors that span multiple spatial- and temporal-scales. Here, we propose an integrated approach combining an energy-economic model with a life-cycle assessment to analyze the impacts of energy policies on the dynamic changes in the various environmental impacts of a product system. We employ the Market Allocation (MARKAL) framework to foresee the changes in several economic- and technological-parameters over specific periods for different energy policies. Furthermore, we create a dynamic life-cycle inventory database to assess the changes in the future life-cycle environmental impact of a current product/process system. Our proposed method may guide industry to proactively prepare for the possible effects of different energy policies on their current product/process system's environmental profile so that they can make strategic decisions on modifications to, and investments in their production processes thereby to enhance their environmental- and economic-performance while meeting the various emission-abatement targets.
A Clean Energy Standard (CES) is a flexible, market-based policy instrument that could be adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the U.S. electricity system over time. This paper uses several well-known energy system and electricity models to analyze a CES that reflects broad principles outlined in President Obama's January 2011 State of the Union Address and in the Administration's subsequent Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future. 1 In particular, it examines three different design options for a CES that would each lead to approximately 80% clean electricity by 2035. These different design options provide broadly similar economic incentives for clean energy deployment and yield similar overall welfare impacts, but they exhibit different distributional outcomes. The most inclusive CES crediting approach favors producers over consumers in competitive electricity markets as well as regions with larger initial endowments of clean energy. On the other hand, the most restrictive crediting approach favors consumers over producers and reduces preferences for regions with larger initial endowments of clean energy. While specific technology outcomes vary across the four models used in this study, key insights about cost-effectiveness and economic incidence are largely robust to the underlying modeling platform. These insights may be important considerations in future CES policy design efforts.