There is a growing consensus that improving market access for smallholder farmers will help them earn more income and enhance food security. In this respect, we employed system dynamics approach to evaluate interventions to expand market access for the traditional system dairy producers in West Shewa zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia. Investment by dairy cooperatives in milk collection capacity and/or raising the price of milk for producers are the interventions identified in the study. These interventions were assessed ex -ante for impacts on (1) milk collection and dairy enterprise balance for dairy cooperatives and (2) milk production and profitability of dairying for producers. Analysis results show that compared to the baseline, the interventions can increase milk production by 17 to 57 %, milk collection by 24- to 43 -fold, dairy household's profit by 11- to 21 -fold, and cooperatives' dairy enterprise balance by 27- to 55 -fold. In the long-term, both dairy cooperatives and producers are better off under market access improvement than under market access with higher milk price for producers. The findings suggest that continued improvement in market access for the traditional dairy farmers in Ethiopia is necessary to sustain higher gains in milk production, milk marketed, and income from dairying.

Despite having a larger herd size and a favourable climate, Ethiopia generally lags behind developing nations in terms of both production and consumption of dairy products. For the purpose of finding and assessing ways to increase milk production by the traditional dairy system in Ethiopia's West Shewa zone, we integrated system dynamics (SD) modelling with a participatory model building approach. The main objective of the research was to develop SD model for West Shewa dairy value chain and apply it to assess ex-ante milk production and dairy household profit impacts of various interventions. The interventions evaluated in the study include enhanced urea treatment of crops residue, increased production of improved feed, and investment in more dairy cows. Analysis reveals that policies targeting feed development can boost milk production and household profits above the baseline. They also lead to a higher seasonal variability in milk production. Through the feed development strategy producers can achieve a 70 % and 735 % increase in milk production and household profit, respectively. However, the implementation of improved feed policy still leaves a gap in the average feed protein requirement of a dairy cattle in the study area. On the other hand, policy of increasing cow herd is not profitable. In addition, improved feed policy in drought results in reduced herd size, yet it leads to a higher milk output and household profit. Hence, with the feed development options explored in this study, increasing herd size is not a recommended course of action for improvement of the West Shewa dairy value chain. Therefore, future research should explore for further enhancement of the supply as well as quality of feed resources and the potential of investment in improved breeds.

The livestock subsector has contributed little to the remarkable economic growth recorded in Ethiopia in the last decade. In an effort to stimulate livestock production, the Ethiopian government has recently recognized livestock as an important strategic subsector in which to invest. Unlike most studies that focus purely on aspects of livestock production, this study provides a detailed descriptive assessment of the livestock production and marketing behavior of smallholder mixed crop-livestock farmers. The study uses a dataset collected in the Agricultural Growth Program baseline survey from farm households in districts of Ethiopia with high potential in grain crops production, areas which have a significant share of the livestock in the country. Smallholder livestock production is characterized by lower levels of livestock ownership, limited market orientation, and lower productivity. These characteristics restrict the capacity of these livestock systems from taking advantage of the emerging opportunities in both domestic and export livestock markets. We find a high degree of heterogeneity in access to livestock assets, production practices, marketing, and livelihood strategies among farm households. Hence, a single policy recommendation might not work for all farmers. Our assessment apprises the current status of livestock production systems in Ethiopia and highlights potential income sources from livestock, including positive synergies between these income sources to help reduce poverty and to promote economic growth in rural communities.

Wheat for food security in Africa: biophysical potential, economic profitability and competitiveness of domestic production

Institutions and policies to implement the Tanzania livestock master plan

A key staple in Africa, wheat is increasingly in demand in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of income growth and rapid urbanization, but sub-Saharan countries and Africa as a whole respectively produce only about 30% and 40% of their domestic requirements, causing a heavy dependence on imports and making the region highly vulnerable to global market and supply shocks. Conducted jointly by CIMMYT and IFPRI for 12 sub-Saharan African countries, this study used geographic information systems, simulation models, and economic analyses to conclude that the countries are using less than 10% of their potential for profitable wheat production. Unlocking that potential will require changes in attitudes, policy and donor support for adapting farming systems, empowering African farmers, and developing value chains for seeds, input supply, and output markets. ISBN: 978-607-8263-28-8 AGROVOC descriptors: Wheats; Food production; Agricultural development; Economic analysis; Globalization; Markets; Imports; Geographical information systems; Farming systems; Sustainability; Profitability; Simulation models; Africa Additional

The Heckman two-stage estimation procedure was used to investigate factors influencing the adoption of modern and/or landrace wheat varieties and spatial diversity of wheat varieties in Turkey. In the first stage, the multinomial logit choice model (MNLM) was used to determine factors influencing farmers’ adoption of modern varieties (MVs) and/or landrace varieties (LVs) of wheat. Conditional on the choice of a given wheat variety or combination of MVs and LVs, a Tobit regression model was used to assess the determinants of on-farm spatial diversity of wheat varieties in the second stage. Our empirical approach allows for the analysis of partial adoption decision of wheat varieties and controls for self-selection problem in analyzing the determinants of spatial diversity of wheat varieties. The empirical model was conceptualized based on random utility model(RUM).The analysis was based on cross-sectional survey data collected on 486 sample households in six provinces of Turkey. Results showed that household size, the number of owned cattle, the number of buildings on farm, farm size, farm land fragmentation, the percentage of irrigable farm plots and regional variations are the important factors in determining the farmers’ first-stage choice of wheat variety types. The selfselection problem was significant only in one of the three cases for the landrace wheat varieties. In the second stage, the farm size and land fragmentation were found to be the key variables influencing the level of on-farm spatial diversity of wheat varieties. The results showed that considerable spatial wheat genetic diversity was maintained on-farm at the household level, mainly through the simultaneous adoption of modern and traditional wheat varieties. Growing a combination of modern and landrace wheat varieties was observed to yield significantly higher level of spatial diversity of wheat genetic resources as compared to growing modern varieties alone or landrace varieties alone. This result suggests that the modern and landrace wheat varieties can coexist and could still support more on-farm spatial diversity of wheat genetic resources. This finding has significant implications for future extension, research and policy efforts for on-farm conservation and utilization of wheat genetic resources in Turkey. There is a need for the government and private sector research and extension efforts to support farmers’ use of both modern and landrace varieties, for example, in terms of seed supply, provision of extension and credit services and marketing support instead of just giving undue priority to popularization and adoption of modern varieties alone.

The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II is an initiative to strengthen evidence-based policymaking in Ethiopia in the areas of rural and agricultural development. Facilitated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), ESSP II works closely with the government of Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI), and other development partners to provide information relevant for the design and implementation of Ethiopia's agricultural and rural development strategies. For more information, see The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) Working Papers contain preliminary material and research results from IFPRI and/or its partners in Ethiopia. The papers are not subject to a formal peer review. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their home institutions or supporting organizations. The authors prepared the original version of this paper for a policy workshop in Addis Ababa organized by the Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II). Funded by a consortium of donors, ESSP was established to undertake actionable research to fill knowledge gaps, improve knowledge management, and strengthen national capacity to undertake relevant economic analysis. We are especially thankful to Paul Dorosh for many helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper.

The analysis of value chains has augmented our knowledge on the complexities, inter-linkages, distributional benefits, and institutional arrangements of production and marketing channels in developing countries. However, the analysis remains relatively qualitative and case-specific, with limited ability to rank or assess the impact of alternative interventions or to analyze sufficiently the complex market dynamics and feedbacks present in livestock systems. This paper offers theoretical and applied insights on ways to improve the analytical rigor of the value chain methodology that combines both qualitative and quantitative approaches.

Cereal production and marketing is the single largest sub-sector within Ethiopia’s agriculture. It dominates in terms of its share in rural employment, agricultural land use, and calorie intake, as well as its contribution to national income. The sub-sector accounts for roughly 60 percent of rural employments, about 73 percent of total cultivated land, more than 40 percent of a typical household’s food expenditure, and more than 60 percent of total caloric intake of a typical household in the country.1 The contribution of cereals to national income is also large: according to available estimates, cereals’ contribution to agricultural value added is 65 percent (Diao et al. 2007), which translates to about 30 percent of GDP.2. Thus, it is no surprise that, despite differing political ideologies, all agricultural production and marketing policies since the 1960s have had a focus on the cereals sub-sector. Since 1991, strategies for both growth and poverty reduction have placed a heavy emphasis on cereal production and marketing. The Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy, the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Plan (SDPRP), and the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) all highlight the importance of cereals in Ethiopia’s overall economic development. The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) instituted the Participatory Demonstration and Extension Training System (PADETS), in the mid-1990s with the specific purpose of increasing cereal production through demonstration of seed-fertilizer technology. As part of these strategies, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has undertaken substantial market reforms, accelerated investments in road and communication networks, and initiated programs to increase cereal production through large-scale demonstrations of the benefits of modern seeds and greater fertilizer use. The structure of Ethiopian cereal markets has undergone massive changes since the 1960s due to dramatic shifts in government agricultural production and market policies, vast improvements in marketing infrastructure, and major increases in domestic production. This paper documents these experiences. It begins by giving a historical overview of policies that have directly or indirectly affected cereal production and marketing.

Soaring international food and energy prices and the resulting volatility in markets is alarming many African policy makers. The domestic production of wheat in many countries suffers from lack of policy support and donor neglect resulting from the perception that Africa cannot competitively produce wheat. Given this background, this study examines the biophysical feasibility and economic profitability of rain-fed wheat production in selected Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. The biophysical crop growth simulation model was used to generate wheat yield under three levels of intensification (low, medium and high): using 0%, 50% and 100% of recommended fertilizer rates. The parametric and non-parametric statistical analysis showed significant wheat yield response. Across the selected countries, the wheat yield varied from 742 kg/ha to 3022 kg/ha for no fertilizer use, from 1482 kg/ha to 4149 kg/ha for 50% of recommended fertilizer rate, and from 1838 kg/ha to 4914 kg/ha for 100% of recommended fertilizer rate. The economic analysis also indicated that domestic wheat production can be economically profitable and could be competitive with imports in most of the selected countries. The net economic return per hectare varied from -224 US $/ha to 959 US $ for no fertilizer use, from -58 US $/ha to 1424 US$/ha for the use of 50% recommended fertilizer rate, and from 7 US $/ha to 1728 US$/ha for the use of 100% of recommended fertilizer rate. Thus, given the strategic importance of wheat for food security and the widening gap between demand and domestic production, African governments need to seriously consider investing in wheat production. The priority should be on utilizing existing varieties and technologies through improvements in seed production and supply, agricultural extension, marketing infrastructure to reduce the marketing costs, and improvements in agronomic practices are priority areas for ensuring competitiveness of domestic wheat production.

The analysis of value chains has augmented our knowledge on the complexities, inter-linkages, distributional benefits, and institutional arrangements of production and marketing channels in developing countries. However, the analysis remains relatively qualitative and case-specific, with limited ability to rank or assess the impact of alternative interventions or to analyze sufficiently the complex market dynamics and feedbacks present in livestock systems. This paper offers insights on ways to improve the analytical rigor of the value chain methodology that combines both qualitative and quantitative approaches.

The major objective of this paper is to identify determinants of market prices for cattle, sheep and goat in the export market value chain starting from pastoral markets to export abattoirs and live animal exporters. The study is based on the information generated through a formal survey conducted in the major pastoral livestock markets of Ethiopia with 128 collectors, small and big traders, feedlot operators, live animal and meat exporters. Hedonic price formation model was used to analyze the survey data. This study identified certain occasions such as Christian fasting, Muslim fasting, holidays and other times; time of a situation whether that specific month falls during ban time or not and season described as wet or dry season as important determinants of livestock price formation. Age group and body condition of the traded animals, buyer and seller types are also important observable attributes influencing formation of livestock prices.

The major objective of this paper is to identify determinants of market prices for cattle, sheep and goat in the export market value chain starting from pastoral markets to export abattoirs and live animal exporters. The study is based on the information generated through a formal survey conducted in the major pastoral livestock markets of Ethiopia with 128 collectors, small and big traders, feedlot operators, live animal and meat exporters. Hedonic price formation model was used to analyze the survey data. This study identified certain occasions such as Christian fasting, Muslim fasting, holidays and other times; time of a situation whether that specific month falls during ban time or not and season described as wet or dry season as important determinants of livestock price formation. Age group and body condition of the traded animals, buyer and seller types are also important observable attributes influencing formation of livestock prices.