Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) forms the deepest limb of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and is a key control in global heat, freshwater, and carbon exchanges. AABW originates in part from Dense Shelf Water (DSW) produced in Antarctic coastal polynyas. Prydz Bay and Cape Darnley host several productive polynyas that supply AABW to the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors. However, the pathways by which DSW travels from the shelf to the abyss, and the transformations it undergoes over its first year, remain poorly understood. We use a 10 km circum-Antarctic ocean-sea ice model (the Whole Antarctic Ocean Model) and Lagrangian particle tracking with a novel clustering analysis to examine how DSW from Prydz Bay region is exported and modified before contributing to AABW. Our results reveal that shelf mixing influences DSW’s fate. When DSW flows beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, it mixes with fresher Ice Shelf Water (ISW), becoming less dense and reducing its potential to sink. Along the shelf break, intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) mix with DSW to form modified CDW (mCDW), further altering its properties. We find that the DSW-to-AABW pathway is sensitive to these mixing processes, which can either facilitate or preclude descent. Cluster analysis of Lagrangian trajectories reveals distinct groups of particle pathways and transformations, highlighting the diverse outcomes of DSW export. This Lagrangian approach demonstrates a powerful tool for diagnosing shelf-to-deep water mass transformation, and provides insights into the processes regulating AABW formation in the Prydz Bay region.

Abstract. Societal adaptation to rising sea levels requires robust projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s retreat, particularly due to ocean-driven basal melting of its fringing ice shelves. Recent advances in ocean models that simulate ice-shelf melting offer an opportunity to reduce uncertainties in ice–ocean interactions. Here, we compare several community-contributed, circum-Antarctic ocean simulations to highlight inter-model differences, evaluate agreement with satellite-derived melt rates, and examine underlying physical processes. All but one simulation use a melting formulation depending on both thermal driving (T ⋆) and friction velocity (u⋆), which together represent the thermal and ocean current forcings at the ice–ocean interface. Simulated melt rates range from 650 to 1277 Gt year−1 (m = 0.45 − 0.91 m year−1), driven by variations in model resolution, parameterisations, and sub-ice shelf circulation. Freeze-to-melt ratios span 0.30 to 30.12 %, indicating large differences in how refreezing is represented. The multi-model mean (MMM) produces an averaged melt rate of 0.60 m year−1 from a net mass loss of 842.99 Gt year−1 (876.03 Gt year−1 melting and 33.05 Gt year−1 refreezing), yielding a freeze-to-melt ratio of 3.92 %. We define a thermo-kinematic melt sensitivity, ζ = m/(T ⋆ u⋆) = 4.82 × 10−5 °C−1 for the MMM, with individual models spanning 2.85 × 10−5 to 19.4 × 10−5 °C−1. Higher melt rates typically occur near grounding zones where both T ⋆ and u⋆ exert roughly equal influence. Because friction velocity is critical for turbulent heat exchange, ice-shelf melting must be characterised by both ocean energetics and thermal forcing. Further work to standardise model setups and evaluation of results against in situ observations and satellite data will be essential for increasing model accuracy, reducing uncertainties, to improve our understanding of ice-shelf–ocean interactions and refine sea-level rise predictions.

Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise is deeply uncertain, with subglacial water suspected to play a critical role, yet its impact remains unclear. We demonstrate that water at the base of ice sheets influences sliding behaviour and that its exclusion from models can underestimate sea-level rise projections and delay the predicted onset of tipping points. Here we use an Antarctic Ice Sheet model (Elmer/Ice) to explore how different assumptions about water pressure at the ice base affect sea-level rise projections from 2015 to 2300. Our results indicate that incorporating subglacial water can amplify ice discharge across the Antarctic Ice Sheet by up to threefold above the standard approach, potentially contributing an additional 2.2 metres to sea-level rise by 2300. Notably, a smoothly decreasing basal drag near the grounding line more than doubles grounding line flux by 2300 relative to scenarios where effective pressure is simplified into a spatially constant coefficient. Basin-specific responses vary significantly, with some scenarios advancing tipping points by up to 40 years. These findings underscore the critical need to integrate evolving subglacial hydrology into ice sheet models.

The Antarctic ice sheet is integral to Earth's climate system, influencing global energy and water cycles, and ecosystems. Enough ice is stored in regions most vulnerable to rapid retreat to cause sea levels to rise by ∼15 m if they completely melted, making their stability a key concern. As global temperatures approach and look to surpass 1.5°C (Box 1) above pre-industrial levels, Antarctic ice loss is accelerating, with the potential to trigger significant climatic shifts. Yet, the complex processes governing its stability in a warming climate remain insufficiently understood, limiting society's preparedness. Given the accelerating rate of ice loss and its profound implications, urgent and coordinated efforts to reduce uncertainties around future Antarctic ice changes are essential for policymakers and society, as the resulting melt will have global consequences, especially for coastal areas already facing rising flood risks.

Antarctica is a vital component of Earth's climate system, influencing global sea level, ocean circulation, and planetary albedo. Major knowledge gaps in critical processes-spanning the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets, underlying beds, ice shelves, and sea ice-create uncertainties in future projections, hindering climate adaptation and risk assessments of ice intervention strategies. Antarctica's ice sheet could contribute 28 centimeters to sea level by 2100, and potentially more if we surpass warming thresholds that trigger instabilities and rapid retreat. We review recent advances in understanding the changing stability of the ice sheet margins and identify key processes that require further research. Progress requires high-resolution satellite data, targeted field campaigns, improved modeling, and refined theory. Increased investment and interdisciplinary collaboration are essential to uncovering Antarctica's hidden processes and reducing uncertainties in future projections.

On January 15, 2022, an ongoing eruption at the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano generated a large explosion which resulted in a globally observed tsunami and atmospheric pressure wave. This paper presents time series observations of the event from Australia including 503 mean sea level pressure (MSLP) sensors and 103 tide gauges. Data is provided in its original format, which varies between data providers, and a post-processed format with consistent file structure and time zone. High-pass filtered variants of the data are also provided to facilitate study of the pressure wave and tsunami. For a minority of tide gauges the raw sea level data cannot be provided, due to licence restrictions, but high-pass filtered data is always provided. The data provides an important historical record of the volcanic pressure wave and tsunami in Australia. It will be useful for research on atmospheric and ocean waves associated with large volcanic eruptions.

AbstractThe Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process‐based projections of the ice‐sheet contribution to sea‐level rise over the twenty‐first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice‐flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high‐emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea‐level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea‐level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice‐shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea‐level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea‐level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi‐century projections.

The present-day state and future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet depend on the rate at which the ocean melts its fringing ice shelves. Ocean heat must cross many physical and dynamical barriers to melt ice shelves, with the last of these being the ice-ocean boundary layer. This review summarizes the current understanding of ice-ocean boundary-layer dynamics, focusing on recent progress from laboratory experiments, turbulence-resolving numerical simulations, novel observations, and the application to large-scale simulations. The complex interplay between buoyant meltwater and external processes such as current shear leads to the emergence of several melting regimes that we describe, as well as freezing processes. The remaining challenges include developing new parameterizations for large-scale ice-ocean models based on recent advances and understanding the coevolution of melt and basal topography.

Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss and therefore global sea level rise are hugely uncertain, partly due to how mass loss of the ice sheet occurs at the grounding line. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB), a vast region of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is thought to be particularly vulnerable to deglaciation under future climate warming scenarios. However, future projections of ice loss, driven by grounding-line migration, are known to be sensitive to the parameterization of ocean-induced basal melt of the floating ice shelves and, specifically, to the adjacent grounding line - termed grounding-line melt parameterizations (GLMPs). This study investigates future ice sheet dynamics in the WSB with respect to four GLMPs under both the upper and lower bounds of climate warming scenarios from the present to 2500, with different model resolutions, ice shelf melt parameterizations (ISMPs) and choices of sliding relationships. The variation in these GLMPs determines the distribution and the amount of melt applied in the finite-element assembly procedure on partially grounded elements (i.e. elements containing the grounding line). Our findings indicate that the GLMPs significantly affect both the trigger timings of tipping points and the overall magnitude of ice mass loss. We conclude that applying full melting to the partially grounded elements, which causes melting on the grounded side of the grounding line, should be avoided under all circumstances due to its poor numerical convergence and substantial overestimation of ice mass loss. We recommend preferring options that depend on the specific model context, by either (1) not applying any melt immediately adjacent to the grounding line or (2) employing a sub-element parameterization.

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models are increasingly being developed and applied to important questions pertaining to processes at the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet margins, which play a pivotal role in ice sheet stability and sea level rise projections. One of the challenges of such coupled modelling activities is the timescale discrepancy between ice and ocean dynamics. This discrepancy, combined with the high computational cost of ocean models due to their finer temporal resolution, limits the time frame that can be modelled. In this study, we introduce an "accelerated forcing" approach to address the timescale discrepancy and thus improve computational efficiency in a framework designed to couple evolving ice geometry to ice shelf cavity circulation. This approach is based on the assumption that the ocean adjusts faster to imposed changes than the ice sheet, so the ocean can be viewed as being in a quasi-steady state that varies slowly over timescales of ice geometry change. By assuming that the mean basal melt rate during one coupling interval can be reflected by a quasi-steady-state melt rate during a shortened coupling interval (equal to the regular coupling interval divided by a constant factor), we can reduce the ocean model simulation duration. We first demonstrate that the mean cavity residence time, derived from standalone ocean simulations, can guide the selection of suitable scenarios for this approach. We then evaluate the accelerated forcing approach by comparing basal melting response under the accelerated forcing with that under the regular forcing (without the accelerated forcing) based on idealized coupled ice sheet-ocean model experiments. Our results suggest that the accelerated approach can yield comparable melting responses to those under the regular forcing approach when the model is subjected to steady far-field ocean conditions or time-varying conditions with timescales much shorter than the cavity residence time. However, it may not be suitable when the timescale of the accelerated ocean conditions is not significantly different from the cavity residence time. We have also discussed the limitations of applying the accelerated forcing approach to real-world scenarios, as it may not be applicable in coupled modelling studies addressing climate variability on sub-decadal, decadal, and mixed timescales or in fully coupled climate models with interactive ice sheets. Nevertheless, when appropriately applied, the accelerated approach can be a useful tool in process-oriented coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling or for downscaling climate simulations with a coupled ice sheet-ocean model.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) forms the deepest limb of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and is a key control on global exchanges of heat, freshwater, and carbon. Density differences that drive the MOC have their origin, in part, in coastal polynyas. Prydz Bay polynyas in East Antarctica are a key source of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) that feeds AABW to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, several poorly understood mechanisms influence the pathways and change water mass properties of the DSW on its way to the abyss. To better understand these mechanisms, we release Lagrangian particles in a 10 km resolution simulation of the Whole Antarctic Ocean Model and analyze the resulting tracks using novel cluster analysis. Our results highlight the role of mixing with other water masses on the shelf in controlling the fate of DSW and its eventual contribution to AABW. When advected beneath the ice shelf, DSW can mix with fresh Ice Shelf Water (ISW), becoming less dense and making future AABW formation less likely. This study confirms that towards the shelf break along the Antarctic Slope Current, mixing with circumpolar deep water (CDW) forms modified circumpolar deep water (mCDW) and influences DSW export as AABW. Our findings indicate that the pathway from DSW to AABW is sensitive to mixing with ambient waters on the shelf. An important implication is that with future increase in ice shelf melt and CDW warming, AABW production is likely to decline, even if DSW production in coastal polynyas remains constant.

Water mass transformation (WMT) around the Antarctic margin controls Antarctica Bottom Water formation and the abyssal limb of the global meridional overturning circulation, besides mediating ocean-ice shelf exchange, ice sheet stability and its contribution to sea level rise. However, the mechanisms controlling the rate of WMT in the Antarctic shelf are poorly understood due to the lack of observations and the inability of climate models to simulate those mechanisms, in particular beneath the floating ice shelves. We used a circum-Antarctic ocean-ice shelf model to assess the contribution of surface fluxes, mixing, and ocean-ice shelf interaction to the WMT on the continental shelf. The salt budget dominates the WMT rates, with only a secondary contribution from the heat budget. Basal melt of ice shelves drives buoyancy gain at lighter density classes (27.2 27.6). We found a large sensitivity of the WMT rates to model horizontal resolution, tides and topography within the Filchner-Ronne, East and West Antarctica ice shelf cavities. In the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, an anticyclonic circulation in front of the Ronne Depression regulates the rates of basal melting/refreezing and WMT and is substantially affected by tides and model resolution. Model resolution is also found to affect the Antarctic Slope Current in both East and West Antarctica, impacting the on-shelf heat delivery, basal melt and WMT. Moreover, the representation of the ice shelf draft associated with model resolution impacts the freezing temperature and thus basal melt and WMT rates in the East Antarctica. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale features of the flow and topography, and to include the effects of tidal forcing, to adequately represent water mass transformations on the shelf that directly influence the abyssal global overturning circulation.

Abstract Subglacial freshwater discharge from beneath Antarctic glaciers likely has a strong impact on ice shelf basal melting. However, the difficulty in directly observing subglacial flow highlights the importance of modeling these processes. We use an ocean model of the Totten Ice Shelf cavity into which we inject subglacial discharge derived from a hydrology model applied to Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our results show (a) discharge increases melting in the vicinity of the outflow region, which correlates with features observed in surface elevation maps and satellite‐derived melt maps, with implications for ice shelf stability; (b) the change in melting is driven by the formation of a buoyant plume rather than the addition of heat; and (c) the buoyant plume originating from subglacial discharge‐driven melting is far‐reaching. Basal melting induced by subglacial hydrology is thus important for ice shelf stability, but is absent from almost all ice‐ocean models.

<p>Understanding the processes involved in basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is important to quantify the rate at which Antarctica will lose mass. Current research of ice shelf-ocean interaction highlights deep warm water intrusions and melting along narrow grounding lines. The majority of the ice, however, lies in much shallower waters. Here we analyse the vertical structure of previously published Antarctic-wide estimates of ice shelf basal melting derived from satellites and ice shelf buttressing derived from ice sheet flow modelling. The results show that ice shelf regions with a draft shallower than 500 m account for more than 60 % of the total basal mass loss and more than 30 % of the total buttressing flux response. The oceanic processes that drive melting in shallow regions might be very different compared to the ones at depth and how well these are represented in large-scale models of Antarctic ice shelf-ocean interaction is not clear. This gap should be addressed for more accurate predictions of the Antarctic response to climate change.</p> <p> </p>

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from - 5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice-climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Over the past 50 years, the discovery and initial investigation of subglacial lakes in Antarctica have highlighted the paleoglaciological information that may be recorded in sediments at their beds. In December 2018, we accessed Mercer Subglacial Lake, West Antarctica, and recovered the first in situ subglacial lake-sediment record—120 mm of finely laminated mud. We combined geophysical observations, image analysis, and quantitative stratigraphy techniques to estimate long-term mean lake sedimentation rates (SRs) between 0.49 ± 0.12 mm a–1 and 2.3 ± 0.2 mm a–1, with a most likely SR of 0.68 ± 0.08 mm a–1. These estimates suggest that this lake formed between 53 and 260 a before core recovery (BCR), with a most likely age of 180 ± 20 a BCR—coincident with the stagnation of the nearby Kamb Ice Stream. Our work demonstrates that interconnected subglacial lake systems are fundamentally linked to larger-scale ice dynamics and highlights that subglacial sediment archives contain powerful, century-scale records of ice history and provide a modern process-based analogue for interpreting paleo–subglacial lake facies.

The largest regional drivers of current surface elevation increases in the Antarctic Ice Sheet are associated with ice flow reconfiguration in previously active ice streams, highlighting the important role of ice dynamics in mass balance calculations. Here, we investigate controls on the evolution of the flow configuration of the Vanderford and Totten glaciers – key outlet glaciers of the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB) – the most rapidly thinning region of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). We synthesise factors that influence the ice flow in this region and use an ice sheet model to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment divide location to changes in surface elevation due to thinning at the Vanderford Glacier (VG) associated with ongoing retreat and thickening at the Totten Glacier (TG) associated with an intensification of the east–west snowfall gradient. The present-day catchment divide between the Totten and Vanderford glaciers is not constrained by the geology or topography but is determined by the large-scale ice sheet geometry and its long-term evolution in response to climate forcing. Furthermore, the catchment divide migrates under relatively small changes in surface elevation, leading to ice flow and basal water piracy from the Totten to the Vanderford Glacier. Our findings show that ice flow reconfigurations occur not only in regions of West Antarctica like the Siple Coast but also in the east, motivating further investigations of past, and the potential for future, ice flow reconfigurations around the whole Antarctic coastline. Modelling of ice flow and basal water piracy may require coupled ice sheet thermomechanical and subglacial hydrology models constrained by field observations of subglacial conditions. Our results have implications for ice sheet mass budget studies that integrate over catchments and the validity of the zero flow assumption when selecting sites for ice core records of past climate.

Totten Glacier is a fast-moving East Antarctic outlet with the potential for significant future sea-level contributions. We deployed four autonomous phase-sensitive radars on its ice shelf to monitor ice-ocean interactions near its grounding zone and made active source seismic observations to constrain gravity-derived bathymetry models. We observe an asymmetry in basal melting with mean melt rates along the grounding zone differing by up to 20 m/a. Our new bathymetry model reveals that this melt rate asymmetry coincides with an asymmetry in water column thickness and that the low-melting ice-shelf portion is shielded from the main cavity circulation. A 2-year record yields year-to-year melt rate variability of 7-9 m/a with no seasonal cycle. Our results highlight the key role of bathymetry near grounding lines for accurate modeling of ice-shelf melt, and the importance of sustained multi-year monitoring, especially at ice-shelf cavities where the dominant melt rate drivers vary primarily inter-annually.