Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering.

The search for life in the Universe is a fundamental problem of astrobiology and modern science. The current progress in the detection of terrestrial-type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favourable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of global (astrospheric), and local (atmospheric and surface) environments of exoplanets in the habitable zones (HZs) around G-K-M dwarf stars including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favourable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro)physical, chemical and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the HZ to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field in light of presentations and discussions during the NASA Nexus for Exoplanetary System Science funded workshop 'Exoplanetary Space Weather, Climate and Habitability' and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology.

This work investigates middle atmosphere effects of the September 2005 solar flares and solar proton events (SPEs). X‐17 and X‐6.2 flares occurred on 7 and 9 September, respectively, while two moderate SPEs occurred on 10 and 15 September. Flare ionization and dissociation were calculated in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) using the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model. Proton measurements from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system were used to compute solar proton ionization. SPEs are shown to have a larger impact than solar flares on the polar stratosphere and mesosphere; however, flares have a larger influence on the sunlit and equatorial lower thermosphere. The two flares differed significantly with respect to photon spectrum. The larger, X‐17 flare was stronger during the impulsive phase, while the X‐6.2 flare was stronger during the gradual phase. This resulted in the X‐17 flare causing more initial ionization but for a shorter duration. The simulated flare impacts also differed because specific wavelengths of the flares influenced the atmosphere above the model top. Model‐measurement comparisons show that WACCM captures the overall timing and spatial distribution of the observed electron enhancements, indicating a reasonable simulation of flare and SPE‐induced ionization. Both the SPEs and flares caused odd nitrogen increases in the mesosphere. Odd hydrogen produced in the lower mesosphere by the SPEs led to short‐lived ozone decreases of nearly 100%. The flares caused small temperature increases in the lower thermosphere but had no effect on the stratosphere.

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

The current explosion in detection and characterization of thousands of extrasolar planets from the Kepler mission, the Hubble Space Telescope, and large ground-based telescopes opens a new era in searches for Earth-analog exoplanets with conditions suitable for sustaining life. As more Earth-sized exoplanets are detected in the near future, we will soon have an opportunity to identify habitale worlds. Which atmospheric biosignature gases from habitable planets can be detected with our current capabilities? The detection of the common biosignatures from nitrogen-oxygen rich terrestrial-type exoplanets including molecular oxygen (O2), ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) requires days of integration time with largest space telescopes, and thus are very challenging for current instruments. In this paper we propose to use the powerful emission from rotational-vibrational bands of nitric oxide, hydroxyl and molecular oxygen as signatures of nitrogen, oxygen, and water rich atmospheres of terrestrial type exoplanets "highlighted" by the magnetic activity from young G and K main-sequence stars. The signals from these fundamental chemical prerequisites of life we call atmospheric "beacons of life" create a unique opportunity to perform direct imaging observations of Earth-sized exoplanets with high signal-to-noise and low spectral resolution with the upcoming NASA missions.

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

The Specified Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and the Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional (GSFC 2-D) models are used to investigate the effect of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on the atmosphere over the 1960–2010 time period. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) computation of the GCR-caused ionization rates are used in these simulations. GCR-caused maximum NOx increases of 4–15 % are computed in the Southern polar troposphere with associated ozone increases of 1–2 %. NOx increases of ∼ 1–6 % are calculated for the lower stratosphere with associated ozone decreases of 0.2–1 %. The primary impact of GCRs on ozone was due to their production of NOx. The impact of GCRs varies with the atmospheric chlorine loading, sulfate aerosol loading, and solar cycle variation. Because of the interference between the NOx and ClOx ozone loss cycles (e.g., the ClO + NO2+ M → ClONO2+ M reaction) and the change in the importance of ClOx in the ozone budget, GCRs cause larger atmospheric impacts with less chlorine loading. GCRs also cause larger atmospheric impacts with less sulfate aerosol loading and for years closer to solar minimum. GCR-caused decreases of annual average global total ozone (AAGTO) were computed to be 0.2 % or less with GCR-caused column ozone increases between 1000 and 100 hPa of 0.08 % or less and GCR-caused column ozone decreases between 100 and 1 hPa of 0.23 % or less. Although these computed ozone impacts are small, GCRs provide a natural influence on ozone and need to be quantified over long time periods. This result serves as a lower limit because of the use of the ionization model NAIRAS/HZETRN which underestimates the ion production by neglecting electromagnetic and muon branches of the cosmic ray induced cascade. This will be corrected in future works.

Nitrate ion spikes in polar ice cores are contentiously used to estimate the intensity, frequency, and probability of historical solar proton events, quantities that are needed to prepare for potentially society-crippling space weather events. We use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to calculate how large an event would have to be to produce enough odd nitrogen throughout the atmosphere to be discernible as nitrate peaks at the Earth's surface. These hypothetically large events are compared with probability of occurrence estimates derived from measured events, sunspot records, and cosmogenic radionuclides archives. We conclude that the fluence and spectrum of solar proton events necessary to produce odd nitrogen enhancements equivalent to the spikes of nitrate ions in Greenland ice cores are unlikely to have occurred throughout the Holocene, confirming that nitrate ions in ice cores are not suitable proxies for historical individual solar proton events.

We use data from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere mission and simulations using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to determine the impact of the 23-30 January 2012 solar proton event (SPE) on polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) and mesospheric water vapor. We see a small heating and loss of ice mass on 26 January that is consistent with prior results but is not statistically significant. We also find a previously unreported but statistically significant similar to 10% increase in ice mass and in water vapor in the sublimation area in the model that occurs in the 7 to 14days following the start of the event. The magnitude of the response to the January 2012 SPE is small compared to other sources of variability like gravity waves and planetary waves; however, sensitivity tests suggest that with larger SPEs this delayed increase in ice mass will increase, while there is little change in the loss of ice mass early in the event. The PMC response to SPEs in models is dependent on the gravity wave parameterization, and temperature anomalies from SPEs may be useful in evaluating and tuning gravity wave parameterizations.

Melott et al. [2016] suggest that individual solar proton events (SPEs) are detectable as nitrate ion spikes in ice cores. They use the high fluence, high energy (hard spectrum) SPE of 23 February 1956 to calculate an enhancement of HNO3 from the surface to 46 km that is equivalent to a 120 ng cm-2 nitrate ion spike observed in the GISP2H ice core. The Melott et al. [2016] approach is fundamentally flawed, since it considers only the absolute column burden of SPE-produced nitrate and not the pre-existing nitrate in the stratosphere. Modeling studies supported by extensive observations [Duderstadt et al., 2014, 2016, and this comment] show background HNO3 in the lower and middle stratosphere equivalent to 2000 to 3000 ng cm-2 nitrate. These high levels of background nitrate must also be included when estimating SPE enhancements to the deposition of nitrate ions that might eventually be preserved in an ice core. The 1956 SPE results in less than a 5 atmospheric HNO3, not large enough to explain the nitrate spike seen in the GISP2H ice core. Even extreme SPE enhancements cannot explain nitrate peaks (typically hundreds of percent increases) observed in the ice record [Duderstadt et al., 2016]. Realistic mechanisms linking nitrate ions in ice cores to SPEs have not been established. It is time to move the search for indicators of SPEs away from nitrate ions: Nitrate ions cannot be used as proxies for individual SPEs in the ice core record.

CBrF3 (Halon-1301) is a man-made ozone depleting substance that is a major source of bromine in the Earth's stratosphere. Halon-1301 is predominantly removed from the atmosphere by UV photolysis in the stratosphere at wavelengths between 200 and 225 nm. The existing level of uncertainty in the Halon-1301 UV absorption spectrum temperature-dependence directly impacts the ability to model stratospheric ozone chemistry and climate change. In this work, the UV absorption spectrum of Halon-1301 between 195 and 235 nm was measured over the temperature range 210-320 K. An empirical parameterization of the spectrum and its temperature dependence is presented. The present results are critically compared with results from previous studies and the current recommendation for use in atmospheric models. A global annually averaged lifetime for Halon-1301 of 74.6 (73.7-75.5) years was calculated using a 2-D atmospheric model and the present results. The range of lifetimes given in parenthesis represents the possible values due solely to the 2 sigma uncertainty in the Halon-1301 UV spectrum obtained in this work. In addition, the CBrF3 ozone depletion potential was calculated using the 2-D model to be 18.6 (+/- 0.1) using the UV spectrum and 2 sigma uncertainty from this work. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The atmospheric loss processes of N2O and CH4, their estimated uncertainties, lifetimes, and impacts on ozone abundance and long‐term trends are examined using atmospheric model calculations and updated kinetic and photochemical parameters and uncertainty factors from Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) (2013). The uncertainty ranges in calculated N2O and CH4 global lifetimes computed using the SPARC estimated uncertainties are reduced by nearly a factor of 2 compared with uncertainties from Sander et al. (2011). Uncertainties in CH4 loss due to reaction with OH and O(1D) have relatively small impacts on present‐day global total ozone (±0.2–0.5%). Uncertainty in the Cl + CH4 reaction affects the amount of chlorine in radical versus reservoir forms and has a modest impact on present‐day southern hemisphere (SH) polar ozone (~±6%) and on the rate of past ozone decline and future recovery. Uncertainty in the total rate coefficient for the O(1D) + N2O reaction results in a substantial range in present‐day stratospheric odd nitrogen (±20–25%) and global total ozone (±1.5–2.5%). Uncertainty in the O(1D) + N2O reaction branching ratio for the O2 + N2 and 2NO product channels results in moderate impacts on odd nitrogen (±10%) and global ozone (±1%), with uncertainty in N2O photolysis resulting in relatively small impacts (±5% in odd nitrogen, ±0.5% in global ozone). Uncertainties in the O(1D) + N2O reaction and its branching ratio also affect the rate of past global total ozone decline and future recovery, with a range in future ozone projections of ±1–1.5% by 2100, relative to present day.

The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third-most-important human-emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross-section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O(D-1); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 1169years. The observed monthly-to-biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry-transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the period of observation (2005-2010), but all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry-climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.940.01, giving N2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123years) adjusts our best estimates of the human-natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.

We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long‐lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three‐dimensional chemistry‐climate models and a two‐dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate.

The recent 23–30 January and 7–11 March 2012 solar proton event (SPE) periods were substantial and caused significant impacts on the middle atmosphere. These were the two largest SPE periods of solar cycle 24 so far. The highly energetic solar protons produced considerable ionization of the neutral atmosphere as well as HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOx (N, NO, NO2). We compute a NOx production of 1.9 and 2.1 Gigamoles due to these SPE periods in January and March 2012, respectively, which places these SPE periods among the 12 largest in the past 50 yr. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations of the peroxy radical, HO2, show significant enhancements of > 0.9 ppbv in the northern polar mesosphere as a result of these SPE periods. Both MLS measurements and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2-D) model predictions indicated middle mesospheric ozone decreases of > 20% for several days in the northern polar region with maximum depletions > 60% over 1–2 days as a result of the HOx produced in both the January and March 2012 SPE periods. The SCISAT-1 Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE) and the Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instruments measured NO and NO2 (~ NOx), which indicated enhancements of over 20 ppbv in most of the northern polar mesosphere for several days as a result of these SPE periods. The GSFC 2-D model and the Global Modeling Initiative three-dimensional chemistry and transport model were used to predict the medium-term (~ months) influence and showed that the polar middle atmospheric ozone was most affected by these solar events in the Southern Hemisphere due to the increased downward motion in the fall and early winter. The downward transport moved the SPE-produced NOy to lower altitudes and led to predicted modest destruction of ozone (5–13%) in the upper stratosphere days to weeks after the March 2012 event. Polar total ozone reductions were predicted to be a maximum of 1.5% in 2012 due to these SPEs.

We used the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) global two‐dimensional (2D) atmospheric model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a proposed geoengineering activity wherein a reduced top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) solar irradiance is imposed to help counteract a quadrupled CO 2 atmosphere. This study is similar to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Experiment G1. Three primary simulations were completed with the GSFC 2D model to examine this possibility: (A) a pre‐industrial atmosphere with a boundary condition of 285 ppmv CO 2 ( piControl ); (B) a base future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 ( abrupt4xCO2 ); and (C) a perturbed future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 and a 4% reduction in the TOA total solar irradiance ( G1 ). We found huge ozone enhancements throughout most of the stratosphere (up to 40%) as a result of a large computed temperature decrease (up to 18 K) when CO 2 was quadrupled (compare simulation abrupt4xCO2 to piControl ). Further, we found that ozone will additionally increase (up to 5%) throughout most of the stratosphere with total ozone increases of 1–2.5% as a result of a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance (compare simulation G1 to abrupt4xCO2 ). Decreases of atomic oxygen and temperature are the main drivers of this computed ozone enhancement from a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance.