目的 应用自回归求和滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对河南省月度出生缺陷发生率进行预测,为制定科学的出生缺陷防控措施提供参考依据.方法 收集2011年1月至2020年12月河南省37所国家级出生缺陷监测点所有围产儿的出生缺陷监测数据,分别构建总体、城镇和乡村出生缺陷发生率的ARIMA乘积季节模型,对2020年数据进行回代,评价拟合效果,同时利用所构建模型预测2021～2022年月度出生缺陷发生率.结果 分别使用ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12、ARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,0)12、ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型预测2020年河南省总体、城镇和乡村月度出生缺陷发生率,计算2020年预测值和真实值的平均相对误差分别为7.26％、8.80％和10.13％;2020年预测值和真实值动态趋势基本一致,真实值均落在预测值的95％置信区间内;预测2021～2022年河南省月度出生缺陷发生率呈现持续上升趋势.结论 ARIMA模型能对河南省出生缺陷发生率进行较好地预测,有望为出生缺陷防控措施的制定提供科学依据.

高压跌落式熔断器是一种常用的电路保护设备,该设备在应用的过程中可以凭借良好的电路保护作用实现对高压线路的电路保护,对电路故障有很好的阻断限制作用,因此,在当下的电力电网中有深入且广泛的应用.本文为提升高压跌落式熔断器的应用效果,就针对高压跌落式熔断器操作便捷性进行了研究分析.

针对框架—自复位墙结构,将自复位墙假定为刚体,框架简化为多自由度体系,得到了"刚体—多自由度体系"简化分析模型,建立了地震激励下的运动方程,给出了相应的Simulink动态仿真模型.针对典型算例,在多条地震波激励下,分别采用该文提出的方法及ABAQUS有限元软件进行了弹性地震响应分析.总体上,二种方法得到的计算结果差别较小,表明该文所建立的简化分析模型具有较高的计算精度,同时具有很高的计算效率,能进一步应用于框架—自复位墙结构的抗震设计.

The framed self-centering wall (FSCW) structure is a newly-emerged special type of seismic-resistant system. However, the related studies rarely concern the theoretical investigation of the FSCW structures subjected to lateral loading, which is of great importance for seismic design of the FSCW structures. In view of this, the analytical model of the FSCW structures is firstly developed, then the fundamental equations that govern the elastic responses of FSCW structures under lateral loads are formulated and the corresponding analytical solutions are derived. Meanwhile, the developed analytical model is validated by the finite element method, which shows that the developed model has a good reliability in predicting the elastic responses of FSCW structures sustaining lateral loading. Utilizing the proposed method, the effects of the post-tensioned (PT) tendon and dampers on the behaviors of the FSCW structure under lateral loading are investigated. Moreover, a comparative study of mechanical performance between the FSCW structure and conventional structures under lateral loading is conducted. The results show that, in terms of the lateral displacement and shear force responses of the frame, the mechanical performance of the FSCW structure subjected to lateral loading generally falls in between those of the conventional frame-shear wall structure and the moment-resisting frame structure.

学生党建工作的根本落脚点就是培养符合中国特色社会主义要求的建设者和接班人.然而,如何做好大学学生支部的党建工作是高校老师面临的主要问题.本文通过具体论述做好大学学生支部党建工作的策略,旨在增强大学学生支部的党建水平.

为研究框架-自复位墙结构在往复荷载作用下的滞回性能,将自复位墙简化成刚体,框架等效成单质点体系,采用理论分析的方法,重点考察了预应力筋、阻尼器以及框架设计参数的影响.结果表明:框架-自复位墙结构完全卸载后是否存在残余位移与墙体自重、预应力筋初始力、阻尼器屈服力及框架屈服力的大小有关;提高阻尼器或框架的屈服力可以提高框架-自复位墙结构的耗能能力,而增加预应力筋、阻尼器或框架的弹性刚度,均会降低其耗能能力;框架-自复位墙结构的耗能能力与预应力筋初始力关系不大.

This paper presents a simplified model for dynamic response analysis of the framed self-centering wall (FSCW) structure under seismic excitations. In the analysis model, the frame is equivalent as a single-degree-of-freedom system and collaborates with the self-centering (SC) wall to resist lateral loads. By way of pushover analysis of a typical FSCW structure, the proposed analysis model is validated by comparing the analysis results with those obtained from the finite element analysis method. Using the analysis model, motion equations of the FSCW structure under seismic excitations are established and solved through numerical simulations. Finally, a comprehensive parametric study is conducted to investigate the effects of a variety of design parameters on seismic responses of the FSCW structure. It shows that improving the yield force or elastic stiffness of the frame can help greatly lessen seismic responses of the FSCW structure in terms of the rotation angle of the SC wall.

A pot experiment was conducted, using two rice cultivars Ningjing 1 (TCB sensitive) and Yangfujing 8 (TCB tolerant), with five concentration treatments (0, 10, 20, 40, and 80 mg TCB per kg dry soil) to explore the responses of two rice cultivars to TCB, and provide the basis for the high, stable, and safe production of rice. The results indicated that significant differences were found in the effects of TCB treatments on grain yield and photosynthetic parameters of flag leaf between the two cultivars. Plant height, fresh weight, and yield were significantly increased, chlorophyll content, net photosynthetic rate, intercellular CO2 con- centration, transpiration rate, and qN were slightly increased, while Fv/Fm and Fv/Fo were slightly decreased in the low TCB con- centration (10 mg kg -1 ) treatment of Yangfujing 8. Under the same condition, the net photosynthetic rate, CO2 intercellular con- centration, transpiration rate, ΦPSII, Fv/Fm, Fv/Fo, qp, yield in Ningjing 1 were slightly declined with significant reduction of stomatal conductance. The photosynthetic characteristics, yield, plant height, fresh weight in Ningjing 1 were decreased signifi- cantly, while Yangfujing 8 showed more resistance and adaptation to TCB at 20 mg kg -1 . Both cultivars showed significant de- crease in growth, photosynthesis and yield in treatments with high TCB concentrations (40 and 80 mg kg -1 ), with the greater dec- rements in Ningjing 1. The effect of TCB on photosynthetic characteristics and yield of rice was not only related to TCB concen- tration, but also to cultivars. Low TCB levels slightly promoted the plant height, fresh weight, chlorophyll content, photosynthetic

作为翻译的主体,译者在翻译原著中起到了传递信息、思想与文化的重要作用,然而译者的翻译质量与其自身的主体性息息相关.本文以简爱的两个中文译本为例,对比了译者的主体性对翻译的影响.

或许我还不能读懂她,那种经历过无数悲欢离合的却泰然处之的从容;那份与年代不符敢爱敢恨的丰富情感;那颗饱经沧桑却永不停止跳动的心. 《息夫人》,是一部以女性视角描写的另一个女人的成长过程的书籍,与其他的古代小说不一样的是,其语言更加细腻,笔触鲜活,落脚点更为现实.小说塑造了一个拥有一种个性,两类文化,三段情感,四项功勋的全新形象,她——就是息夫人.

Self -reliance is of irreplaceable importance and specialty as it is not only fundamental to one's entry into society,but also plays an inevitable role of developing independent character.Adopting methods of literature and field visits,this paper explores the physical exercise of students in Mawangping High School and finds that most students neglect to cultivate their self -reliance.This paper wishes to urge students to cultivate their self -reliance through physical exercise.

厚道资产、米牛网、658、铜掌柜、微贷网……数年以前,你可能从未听说过这些名字.但今日,互联网金融以其简明易懂、门槛低、收益高等特点,形成了一波破空而来的创新浪潮,大踏步走进了很多人的视线. 与此同时,学界对这一新生事物的研究也在迅速跟进,甚至抢先一步.2015年4月9日,涵盖了浙江大学管理学院、经济学院、法学院、计算机学院和数学系相关研究力量,针对行业生态,从不同角度聚焦互联网金融的一个新的跨学科研究智库——浙江大学互联网金融研究院成立.

With the development and popularization of information technology, especially the wide use of the Internet and online video, flipped classroom was popularized globally. In view of the insufficient teaching research and practice in domestic universities, this paper put forward to improve the following five aspects: teaching design, online learning platform, the interaction between teachers and students,modern teaching environment, and teaching services. And we try to construct a panoramic teaching environment to support a change from flipped classroom to flipped School based on the theory of constructivism.