The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications, and potential future risks based on estimated energy matrixes and policy pathways. The aim of this publication is to assess the risks climate change poses to biodiversity using projected IPCC climate scenarios for the period 2081–2100, combined with key species-sensitivity indicators and variables as a response to climate change projections. In doing so, we address how climate-change-driven pressures may affect biodiversity. Additionally, a novel causal relationship between extreme ambient temperature exposure levels and the corresponding effects on individual species, noted in this paper as the Upper Thermal-Tolerance Limit and Species Sensitivity Distribution (UTTL-SSD), provides a compelling explanation of how global warming affects biodiversity. Our study indicates that North American and Oceanian sites with humid continental and subtropical climates, respectively, are poised to realize temperature shifts that have been identified as potential key tipping-point triggers. Heat stress may significantly affect approximately 60–90% of mammals, 50% of birds, and 50% of amphibians in North American and Oceanian sites for durations ranging from 5 to 84 days per year from 2080. In the humid temperate oceanic climate of European sites, the climate conditions remain relatively stable; however, moderate cumulative effects on biodiversity have been identified, and additional biodiversity-assemblage threat profiles exist to represent these. Both the integration of IPCC-IUCN profiles and the UTTL-SSD response relationship for the species communities considered have resulted in the identification of the projected threats that climate pressures may impose under the considered IPCC scenarios, which would result in biodiversity degradation. The UTTL-SSD responses developed can be used to highlight potential breakdowns among trophic levels in food web structures, highlighting an additional critical element when addressing biodiversity and ecosystem concerns.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects climate change effects based on several scenarios and highlights the potential regional changes of bioclimatic pressures up until 2100. Understanding the effects of climate change on the ecosystems is of utmost importance for nature conservation; biodiversity in riverine and coastal areas is threatened by temperature increase by weather-related events like floods and droughts. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the performance of a given nature-based solution and nature conservation management plan's success (or failure) to account for climate change. For the purpose of the evaluation, management plans are analysed against the UN Sustainable Development Goals targets. The case studies analysed include twelve nature-based solution sites in riverine and coastal areas, distributed across Europe, Oceania and North America. Their sustainable development goals performance is analysed quantitatively for the Sustainable Development Goals-Sustainable Index Score, open-source indicator data and qualitatively for the nature conservation management plans. Sustainable development goals considered include the following: clean water and sanitation (6); industry, innovation & infrastructure (9); sustainable cities and communities (11); responsible consumption and production (12); climate action (13); life below water (14); life on land (15). The International Panel on Climate Change projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways1-2.6 and Shared Socio-economic Pathways5-8.5 scenarios are used to gain evidence of the role nature-based solutions and nature conservation management plans can play in adaptation trajectories for climate change and biodiversity conservation. The results highlight that most nature conservation management plans and the nature-based solution they typically rely upon, do not pay sufficient attention to climate change. The evidence suggests that the studied nature-based solution sites are not on track to achieve selected sustainable development goals when climate change impacts under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways1-2.6 and Shared Socio-economic Pathways5-8.5 scenarios are factored in. Through this evaluation, riverine conservation areas are identified as requiring more rigorous climate adaptation strategies and nature conservation planning to enhance resilience and to have the potential of fulfilling the addressed SDGs.

The long-term sediment demand of the Dutch coast is integral to the current Dutch Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management policy. The Coastal Genesis 2 research programme was initiated to address the sustainability of this policy under sea level rise by focusing on key uncertainties in the conceptual model of the sediment demand of the Dutch coast. The substantive scientific contributions of the Coastal Genesis 2 research programme are analysed in this paper by applying an output-outcome-impact framework. The direct outputs of the programme are categorised in terms of the knowledge types of a 5-element framework, namely measurement data, simulation models, system understanding, conceptual models, and policy and practice. The research outcomes arise from the interactions of these knowledge types. Our analysis of these outcomes highlights that synthesising new scientific insights into shared conceptual models is critical to achieving impact in policy and practice. In the Dutch situation, a new shared conceptual model of the long-term sediment demand enabled the development of four potential nourishment strategies aiming to meet the strategic goals of the Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management policy on a timescale up to 20 years. In 2021, the Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management officially articulated her intention to adopt the advised nourishment strategy from 2024 onwards. This represents a lasting impact of the Coastal Genesis 2 research programme in policy and practice. Further, the insight regarding the pivotal role of shared conceptual models as intermediary between science, policy and practice may prove useful in the design of future research programmes aiming to influence policy.

As a response to climate change and sea-level rise, new nourishment strategies for low-lying sandy coasts are developed. These interventions affect the habitat quality of coastal ecosystems for benthic communities. Unraveling the relationship between benthic fauna and their environment facilitates the design of sustainable management strategies for the coastal ecosystem. At the ebb-tidal delta of Ameland, The Netherlands, a unique dataset of 166 benthic and sediment samples is collected and allowed for an investigation of the macrobenthic fauna distribution at the spatial scale of morphological features. The benthic community at the ebb tidal delta is composed of species capable of withstanding the dynamic nature of these sandy coastal ecosystems. Despite the dynamic environment, the geomorphology of the ebb-tidal delta is reflected in the benthic species distribution. Distinct species assemblages were identified, covering a gradient of physical stress from extremely exposed to waves or currents, to relatively low energetic environments such as found on the delta plane seaward of the ebb-tidal delta terminal lobe. This gradient is reflected in the median grain size, organic matter content, and oxygenation of the sediment. A second gradient distinguishes well-sorted, mainly wave-exposed sediments from less well-sorted, mainly current-exposed sites. The functional characteristics of the benthic fauna show a clear contrast between the three most exposed, and the three most sheltered assemblages. Small, short-lived, surface deposit-feeding, highly mobile, burrowing organisms dominate in the most exposed sites, whereas with increasing shelter also larger, long-lived, filter-feeding and sessile organisms become more dominant. The functional characteristics suggest that the fauna of the most exposed sites will likely show a fast recovery of disturbance by sand nourishments. A much longer-lasting effect can be expected on sheltered parts of the ebb-tidal delta.

There is a growing interest in systemic adaptation to climate change across all levels of governance. However, little knowledge exists on whether and how systemic adaptation or system approach works at local and sub-national levels. This paper aims to provide reflective and practical insights into this question based on empirical evidence from seven cases in the North Sea Region. We analyse and compare the experience of stakeholders and practitioners in experimenting and evaluating the novel “Cloud to Coast” framework to climate change adaptation. The framework combines a whole-system, inclusive and adaptive approach facilitated with a continuous dialogue in order to accomplish resilient societal outcomes. The stakeholders and practitioners have co-produced knowledge by scrutinising the relevance and applicability of the framework as well as opportunities for its adoption in future adaptation actions. Using a comparative case study research design, we reveal the similarities and differences across seven case studies from six European countries (Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom) and examine the connections across the case studies in adopting systemic adaptation. The paper contributes to the governance of climate change adaptation, particularly in forging a new relationship with wider imaginary spatially and temporally, re-assessing planning practices, and challenging the future norms of adaptation.

The low-lying coastal areas of the countries around the North Sea are exposed to flooding and the influence of sea level rise. The countries in the North Sea Region need to continue to adapt if the associated risk is to be well-managed into the future. In addition to reducing flood risk, adaptation measures can bring development opportunities for those same places. These opportunities, however, are unlikely to be achieved through a ‘defence only’ paradigm, and instead a new approach is needed that simultaneously reduces risk and promotes liveable places, ecosystem health and social well-being. The building blocks of this new approach are promoted here and are based on an adaptation process that is collaborative and takes a whole-system, long-term perspective. The approach developed through the Interreg funded project, C5a, brings together governments, practitioners and researchers from across the North Sea to share policies, practices and the emerging science of climate change adaptation and enabling sustainable development. The new approach reflects a Cloud to Coast management paradigm and emerged through a combination of knowledge exchange and peer-to-peer learning across seven case studies. Central to the case studies was a maturity analysis of existing capabilities across the North Sea countries and their ability to adopt the new approach. This paper presents the results of this analysis, including the common challenges that emerged and the methods and examples of good practice to overcome them. Building upon these findings, the paper concludes by presenting four priority policy directions to support the uptake of the Cloud to Coast approach.

Abstract The use of sediments as soils is an area of interest for Beneficial Use of dredged sediments. In this study the impact of the transition from sediments to soils is researched by looking at the seasonal and long year (10 year) change in pore water metal chemistry of sediments which are considered clean (class A) according to the Dutch soil directive. This study is based on a combination of geohydrological, geochemical and ecotoxicological risk models and validated against measured pore water concentrations for metals over an dry/wet period. The pore water metal concentrations are compared against standards and expressed as at Risk Characterization Ratio’s (RCR) values. The RCR values are high (> 1) during the first 3 years after the application of sediments as soil, especially at the end of the summer. The multi substances Potentially Affected Fraction (ms-PAF) shows a similar trend as the RCR values, although it takes 5 years before the combined calculated potential ecotoxicity is below the legal 40% threshold level. Translated to land use, it is advised to restrict land use for farming on soils where these clean (class A) sediments are applied for a five-year transition period. Article Highlights Beneficial Use of sediments should take into account the different conditions when used as soils. Use of sediments as soils lead to a predicable seasonal and multiple year trend in metal concentrations in pore water. The predicted results in metal pore water concentrations are translated into an advice for temporal land use.

Nature-based solutions (NBSs) are measures reflecting the ‘cooperation with nature’ approach: mitigating fluvial flood risk while being cost-effective, resource-efficient, and providing numerous environmental, social, and economic benefits. Since 2015, the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda has provided UN member states with goals, targets, and indicators to facilitate an integrated approach focusing on economic, environmental, and social improvements simultaneously. The aim of this study is to evaluate the contribution of fluvial NBSs to the UN 2030 Agenda, using all its components: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), targets, and indicators. We propose a four-step framework with inputs from the UN 2030 Agenda, scientific literature, and case studies. The framework provides a set of fluvial flooding indicators that are linked to SDG indicators of the UN 2030 Agenda. Finally, the fluvial flooding indicators are tested by applying them to a case study, the Eddleston Water Project, aiming to examine its contribution to the UN 2030 Agenda. This reveals that the Eddleston Water Project contributes to 9 SDGs and 33 SDG targets from environmental, economic, societal, policy, and technical perspectives. Our framework aims to enhance the systematic considerations of the SDG indicators, adjust their notion to the system of interest, and thereby enhance the link between the sustainability performance of NBSs and the UN 2030 Agenda.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and associated targets focus on a wide range of global issues and can be useful in coastal challenges such as climate change and green economic growth. The aim of this study is to tailor the SDGs, as a universally recognized policy framework, to assess the sustainability performance for coastal flood protection management to enhance climate-resilient and adaptable coastal development. To operationalize this aim, the SDG Sustainability Impact Score (SDG-SIS) framework was developed. Based on system functionalities for the land–sea interface, 38 SDGs were identified in the SDG-SIS framework. Given the availability of public numeric data, only 12 SDG targets are connected with Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The SDG-SIS framework was applied to two different sets of cases, including five coastline and five sand nourishment cases. This study shows that the geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of the two sets of cases should be considered in the selection of system functionalities as well as the consideration of SDG targets. Moreover, cross-linking cumulative consequences of SIS do not directly indicate the level of sustainability, but the individual SDG target data are essential to reveal the underlying details. This stresses the importance of prioritizing SDGs to serve as leverage for policymakers to optimize the climate resilience and adaptation of coastal management. The SDG-SIS framework enables the support of coastal policy by addressing long-term measures and providing a sustainable vision for future implementation.

Variability in muscle force is a hallmark of healthy and pathological human behavior. Predominant theories of sensorimotor control assume ‘motor noise’ leads to force variability and its ‘signal dependence’ (variability in muscle force whose amplitude increases with intensity of neural drive). Here, we demonstrate that the two proposed mechanisms for motor noise (i.e. the stochastic nature of motor unit discharge and unfused tetanic contraction) cannot account for the majority of force variability nor for its signal dependence. We do so by considering three previously underappreciated but physiologically important features of a population of motor units: 1) fusion of motor unit twitches, 2) coupling among motoneuron discharge rate, cross-bridge dynamics, and muscle mechanics, and 3) a series-elastic element to account for the aponeurosis and tendon. These results argue strongly against the idea that force variability and the resulting kinematic variability are generated primarily by ‘motor noise.’ Rather, they underscore the importance of variability arising from properties of control strategies embodied through distributed sensorimotor systems. As such, our study provides a critical path toward developing theories and models of sensorimotor control that provide a physiologically valid and clinically useful understanding of healthy and pathologic force variability.

A large-scale field campaign was carried out on the ebb-tidal delta (ETD) of Ameland Inlet, a basin of the Wadden Sea in the Netherlands, as well as on three transects along the Dutch lower shoreface. The data have been obtained over the years 2017–2018. The most intensive campaign at the ETD of Ameland Inlet was in September 2017. With this campaign, as part of KustGenese2.0 (Coastal Genesis 2.0) and SEAWAD, we aim to gain new knowledge on the processes driving sediment transport and benthic species distribution in such a dynamic environment. These new insights will ultimately help the development of optimal strategies to nourish the Dutch coastal zone in order to prevent coastal erosion and keep up with sea level rise. The dataset obtained from the field campaign consists of (i) single- and multi-beam bathymetry; (ii) pressure, water velocity, wave statistics, turbidity, conductivity, temperature, and bedform morphology on the shoal; (iii) pressure and velocity at six back-barrier locations; (iv) bed composition and macrobenthic species from box cores and vibrocores; (v) discharge measurements through the inlet; (vi) depth and velocity from X-band radar; and (vii) meteorological data. The combination of all these measurements at the same time makes this dataset unique and enables us to investigate the interactions between sediment transport, hydrodynamics, morphology and the benthic ecosystem in more detail. The data provide opportunities to calibrate numerical models to a high level of detail. Furthermore, the open-source datasets can be used for system comparison studies. The data are publicly available at 4TU Centre for Research Data at https://doi.org/10.4121/collection:seawad (Delft University of Technology et al., 2019) and https://doi.org/10.4121/collection:kustgenese2 (Rijkswaterstaat and Deltares, 2019). The datasets are published in netCDF format and follow conventions for CF (Climate and Forecast) metadata. The http://data.4tu.nl (last access: 11 November 2020) site provides keyword searching options and maps with the geographical position of the data.

A growing consensus recognises the need to adapt economic, environmental and social structures of ports for more sustainable models. The fairly new concept of a ‘Port of the Future’ enables policy makers and companies to identify successful strategies they can adopt, and pitfalls they can avoid, when drafting and implementing sustainable port growth policies. The uncertainty and potential impacts of climate change are the primary driving forces behind sustainable actions in coastal protection, port management and operational planning. This study connects the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN and their corresponding targets to key port performance indicators for several representative port masterplans. Utilizing the Green Port Policy (GPP) assessment framework, the SDG targets were linked to sustainability achievements according to the SDGs. The selected SDGs and targets are also used in the critical evaluation of ten port masterplans. A key challenge is the integration of the SDGs into a relevant, measurable and manageable system of 14 representative targets of moderate to high importance targets. The port masterplans inter-comparison is utilized to detect key port related SDGs and targets; thereby linking a subset of 11 SDGs (of the 17 total) to port sustainability. The GPP framework indicators incorporates 24 relevant SDG targets, focusing on globally relevant issues related to port targets. Port service performance indicators were linked to SDG targets which relate to port policy, port operations, and flood defence management. Focusing on the 11 selected port SDGs targets in relation to the 10 port plans considered illustrates a range of sustainability from low to high (e.g. the Port of Ho Chi Minh City and Port of Dar es Salaam to the Port of Rotterdam and Port of Los Angeles, respectively). Moreover, the port masterplans contain evidence for the potential of additional contributions to the selected SDGs targets; it may be possible and indeed applicable to incorporate sustainable goals in the port design processes.

In this study the spatial distribution of dissolved metals in surface water is studied at nine locations in Lake Ketelmeer (the Netherlands). The measured dissolved metal concentrations are combined with the local water quality parameters for salinity, pH, alkalinity and DOC to calculate a FIAM Free Ion Activity Model (FIAM) and the Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) based bioavailable metal concentration. The BLM model is used for Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn and the FIAM model for Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn. To be able to compare the dissolved metal concentration with the FIAM or BLM based bioavailable metal concentration, an accepted reference standard can be used which is also corrected for the bioavailable concentration. Here the Water Framework Directive (WFD) Annual Average Quality Standard (AA-QS) is used, corrected for the FIAM and BLM based bioavailable metal concentration under reference conditions. This yielded a site specific Risk Characterization Ratio (RCRFIAM/RCRBLm). The FIAM model shows an exceedance of the site specific AA-QS for Cu (RCRFIAm of 1.8) and Pb (RCRFIAm of 1.5) in the northern middle part of the lake. This is due to a lower pH in this part of the lake. The BLM model was inconclusive with regard to spatial trends for Cu and Ni due to out of boundary conditions for the model. For locations where the BLM model was within the model boundary conditions, the RCRBLM could be as high as 7.5 for Cu and 3.2 for Ni. The main water quality parameter causing the high RCRBLM was the low DOC concentration. To establish if the locally increased RCR for Cu and Pb (FIAM) or Cu and Ni (BLM) poses an ecotoxicological risk to organisms the multi substances Potentially Affected Fraction (ms-PAF) model is used. The FIAM based ms-PAF indicates that the northern middle part of the lake has the highest chronic metal exposure risk, with an ms-PAF of 27%. The BLM based ms-PAF has a maximum of 45%, but lacks a spatial trend due to the missing BLM corrected Cu and Ni concentrations for some locations.

The study site, Land van Saeftinghe, is an area within the Western Scheldt estuary with Special Protection Area (SPA) status for the EU Birds directive. We used a combination of hydrodynamic and water quality monitoring, hydrodynamic and water quality and modeling, ecotoxicity modeling and observations on the ecological status to correlate the water quality to the observed ecological status of the study site.The monitoring and modeling results show that the copper concentrations are elevated above the Maximum Tolerable Concentration (MTR) during the whole year, while zinc and cadmium show a spring peak (>MTR). Other metals, and all the measured organic contaminants where below the MTR.The peak in the three metals during springtime translates into an increase in the ecotoxicity, as expressed by the calculated multi-substance Potentially Affected Fraction (ms-PAF). The ms-PAF peaked at 25% for all organisms, and 30% for benthic invertebrates. The observed ecological status for the study site at the time of monitoring (2000) was Maximum Ecological Potential (MEP). This result seems to be in contradiction with the exceedance of the MTR for three metals during spring time. However the calculated ms-PAF during the spring peak of 25% is deemed acceptable based on current policy, therefore potential ecotoxic stress is within acceptable boundaries. The ms-PAF results therefore do not contradict the MEP status.The evaluation of the ecological status versus the water quality within the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) can be improved by using the calculated ecotoxicity (ms-PAF) instead of the water quality. We propose an additional step for water bodies which are currently 'at risk', based on their chemical status. In this additional step, the ms-PAF is calculated for all contaminants in the water phase, not discriminating between priority and non-priority substances. The outcome of this calculation defines if the water body is at risk (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The challenge for port developments is to minimize long-term uncertainties associated with port operations, risk of increased costs, and large environmental impacts. The aim of this study is to develop a comparative methodology to assess the sustainability performance of a mixed set of ports (different locations, sizes). This methodology involves ranking various long-term port plans and port vision documents against a set of social, economic, and environmental key performance indicators (KPIs) in order to evaluate and interpret future sustainable port-city development plans. The assessment aims to determine the efficiency and sustainability of each of the case study port plans, relative to other ports. Furthermore, the assessment ranks the considered ports based on comparison of pressures within the ecosystems and society, using publically available data in order to evaluate future changes resulting from these pressures. The classification and ranking of each port have been used to gauge the ability of each port to achieve its sustainability goals for port planning as set out in their port plans. The comprehensive results have been compared with the long-term port plan KPIs to evaluate an array of measures both quantitatively and qualitatively. Most of the highest ranking ports have developed a combination of integrated plans, measures, and regulations for sustainable port developments. This indicates that green port policies need to be interlinked via social, economic, and environmental dimensions utilizing an integrated approach in order to realize maximum potential and strengthen port processes aimed at developing a sustainable port.

The potential ecological hazard, risk and impact of tropical marine sediments from the Tema Harbour (Greater Accra, Ghana) was investigated by integrating Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor whole-sediment toxicity bioassays with data on the metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and As) concentrations of the sediments. The whole-sediment toxicity bioassay results showed that sediments of the Tema Harbour are potentially hazardous to marine benthic invertebrates. C. volutator exhibited a higher vulnerability to the sediment toxicity than H. diversicolor, although the latter showed higher biota-sediment accumulation factors for the investigated metals. Statistically significant correlations were observed between C. volutator mortality and sediment Cd concentration (r = 0.84, p < 0.05; n = 6) and between H. diversicolor mortality and sediment Cu concentration (r = 0.94, p < 0.05; n = 5). Comparison of metal concentrations with international action levels for contaminated sediment disposal indicates that the Tema Harbour sediments contain potentially hazardous concentrations of Cu and Zn. This study shows that sediments from the Tema Harbour are not suitable for disposal at sea without remediation. There is, therefore, a need to improve environmental management and regulate the disposal of dredged material originating from the Tema Harbour.

A generic framework (FW) for the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas (here defined as marine areas subject to a planning and management regime) was developed and tested in nine marine areas of 13 European countries under the EU funded project MESMA (Monitoring and Evaluation of Spatially Managed Areas). This paper describes the lessons learned in the use of the FW and draws conclusions for its future use and development. The selected case studies represented diverse spatial scales, management status and complexity, ranging from sub-national areas to entire national coastlines, and large offshore regions. The application of the FW consisted of seven steps: starting with (i) context setting and (ii) gathering of relevant ecosystem information, human activities and management goals; it continues with (iii) indicator selection and (iv) risk assessment; and the final steps considers the (v) analysis of findings and (vi) the evaluation of management effectiveness, to end up with (vii) the revision and proposal of adaptation to current management. The lessons learnt through the application of the FW in the case studies have proved the value of the FW. However, difficulties rose due to the diversity of the nature and the different stages of development in planning and management in the case study areas; as well as, limited knowledge on ecosystem functioning needed for its implementation. As a conclusion the FW allowed for a flexible and creative application and provided important gap analyses.