The Cape Hatteras National Seashore (Seashore) is located along the Outer Banks of eastern North Carolina, and is renowned for its prominent historical landmarks and world-class recreation. Seashore managers maintain hundreds of assets that support visitor use. Additionally, and primary to the mission of the National Park Service (NPS), managers steward natural and cultural resources located on public and protected lands. The portfolio of assets managed by NPS within the Seashore carries a high level of risk due to its exposure to both coastal erosion and storm surge inundation. The impacts of Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the importance of examining the physical vulnerability of the entire portfolio managed by NPS within the Seashore. The purpose of this study was to 1) evaluate the functionality of the beta forecast tool available in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (v 5.0); and 2) explore options for using the output to assess the potential physical vulnerability of NPS assets. The study determined that using the 10- and 20-year oceanfront shoreline position forecast provides decision makers with a first order screening tool that can be used to prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies given the unpredictable nature of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and uncertainty associated with sea level rise.

ABSTRACT: Describing historic wildlife communities is important for evaluating changes in ecosystems through time and developing contemporary objectives for conservation and restoration. The early historical record in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem has been analyzed many times using a small number of written accounts, with interpretations vigorously disputed among historians, scientists, and other stakeholders. We compiled a comprehensive narrative of thousands of first-hand accounts of wildlife in the ecosystem during 1796–1881, summarized them in a georeferenced relational database, and categorized and mapped output from queries to clarify conflicting past perceptions and gain insights for contemporary management issues. The historical record indicates large mammals such as bison (Bison bison), elk (Cervus elaphus), pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), and wolves (Canis lupus) were present and widespread in present-day Yellowstone National Park and the larger ecosystem prior to Euro-American colonization. However, casual observations could not be used to estimate population sizes, relative abundances, seasonal movements and migration routes, or periods of occupancy with certainty. Despite these shortcomings, the approach was useful for informing contemporary management issues regarding wolf restoration, seasonal distributions of ungulates, and whether mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were native to the Yellowstone area. Similar evaluations could be conducted elsewhere to clarify historic wildlife conditions and provide reference information for modern conservation decisions.

ABSTRACTGray wolf (Canis lupus) restoration in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem began in 1995 with a small founder population in Yellowstone National Park, USA, which increased and contributed to a fully restored population in the northern Rocky Mountains by 2003. Upon removal as a federally listed, threatened species, wolf management outside the park was conveyed to Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (USA) during 2009–2012; though wolves were relisted in Wyoming in 2014. Subsequent harvests elicited substantial negative reactions from wolf advocates when wolves that lived primarily in the park moved into surrounding states and were lawfully harvested. Conversely, many game managers and hunters advocated for larger harvests of wolves, including those in the park. These divergent viewpoints merit consideration when developing management plans for wolves that move between preserves and areas where hunting is permitted. We describe the history of wolf restoration and hunting in the ecosystem, contrast National Park Service and state management objectives, and characterize the risk to wolves living primarily in the park from hunting in surrounding areas. We recommend a framework for trans‐boundary wolf management that considers population, social structure, and ecosystem objectives on public lands, potential influences of harvests on population growth, depredation risks to livestock, and opportunities for hunters and wildlife watching. We also consider human attitudes and social norms, thereby allowing for differences in values in our prescriptions. This framework has been implemented in a key hunting area along the northern boundary of Yellowstone and is broadly applicable elsewhere for the management of wildlife species held in the public trust. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

The Dry Tortugas Research Natural Area (RNA), a 158-km 2 no-fishing, no-anchor marine reserve, was implemented in 2007 in Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO), Florida to minimize the effects of human activities on marine resources and to enhance the productivity and sustainability of fish populations. The process of establishing the RNA resulted in the development of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the State of Florida and the National Park Service (NPS). The MOU constitutes a roadmap for the roles and responsibilities for a state and federal partnership, collaborative preparation of a research and monitoring plan, and reporting on the progress implementing the plan and preliminary findings. A science plan was developed in conjunction with marine and fisheries scientists from multiple agencies and non-government organizations to: (1) quantify changes in the abundance and size-structure of exploited fish species within the RNA relative to adjacent areas; (2) monitor the immigration and emigration of targeted species; (3) monitor changes in species composition and catch rates of exploited fish species throughout the surrounding region; (4) evaluate the effects on marine benthic biological communities; (5) assess reproductive potential of exploited fish species by evaluating egg production and larval dispersal; and (6) implement social science studies to evaluate visitor experiences. For each topic, performance measures, essential and supplemental activities, and general study recommendations were developed. The plan supported interagency marine resource managers in the structured implementation of a science program by communicating to the public a suite of performance measures and essential and supplementary studies designed to document changes in fisheries resources. Development of collaborative marine science programs are useful for leveraging resources, engaging the public and agency decision-makers, and long-term planning to ensure that research and monitoring data are available for sustainable adaptive management of marine reserves.

Simulating ecological indicator responses to alternate restoration strategies provides decision support tools for resource managers and restoration planners. Our case study provides a methodology for how to utilize hydrologic suitability for native vegetation to evaluate effects of modeled restoration scenarios. We propose that hydrologic suitability of white water lily, Nymphaea odorata, an indicator species of the native Florida Everglades slough vegetation community, be used to evaluate modeled restoration scenarios in the Everglades ridge and slough landscape. Based on experimentally derived mesocosm and field studies and historical evidence, we developed a predictive performance measure to assess hydrologic suitability for N. odorata. We applied the performance measure to predict the hydrologic suitability for slough vegetation in the Everglades ridge and slough landscape using model-simulated hydrology of existing conditions, future conditions with restoration, and the predrainage Everglades. Our results indicate that Everglades restoration will provide the greatest benefits to native slough vegetation in Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife National Refuge (LNWR), Water Conservation Area (WCA) 3B, and Everglades National Park, and may degrade slough conditions within portions of WCA 2 and WCA 3A. Our analysis indicates that additional restoration efforts are needed to fully restore native slough vegetation communities throughout the Everglades ridge and slough landscape. Performance measure results for the predrainage scenario in the WCAs conflict with paleoecological data; these results indicate a need to improve the modeled predrainage topography as well as flow and evapotranspiration rates of the Natural System Model version 4.6.2 (hereinafter NSM).

The efficacy of no-take marine reserves (NTMRs) to enhance and sustain regional coral reef fisheries was assessed in Dry Tortugas, Florida, through 9 annual fishery-independent research surveys spanning 2 years before and 10 years after NTMR implementation. A probabilistic sampling design produced precise estimates of population metrics of more than 250 exploited and non-target reef fishes. During the survey period more than 8100 research dives utilizing SCUBA Nitrox were optimally allocated using stratified random sampling. The survey domain covered 326 km2, comprised of eight reef habitats in four management areas that offered different levels of resource protection: the Tortugas North Ecological Reserve (a NTMR), Dry Tortugas National Park (recreational angling only), Dry Tortugas National Park Research Natural Area (a NTMR), and southern Tortugas Bank (open to all types of fishing). Surveys detected significant changes in population occupancy, density, and abundance within management zones for a suite of exploited and non-target species. Increases in size, adult abundance, and occupancy rates were detected for many principal exploited species in protected areas, which harbored a disproportionately greater number of adult spawning fishes. In contrast, density and occupancy rates for aquaria and non-target reef fishes fluctuated above and below baseline levels in each management zone. Observed decreases in density of exploited species below baseline levels only occurred at the Tortugas Bank area open to all fishing. Our findings indicate that these NTMRs, in conjunction with traditional fishery management control strategies, are helping to build sustainable fisheries while protecting the fundamental ecological dynamics of the Florida Keys coral-reef ecosystem.

This special issue on ‘Science for the management of subtropical embayments: examples from Shark Bay and Florida Bay’ is a valuable compilation of individual research outcomes from Florida Bay and Shark Bay from the past decade and addresses gaps in our scientific knowledge base in Shark Bay especially. Yet the compilation also demonstrates excellent research that is poorly integrated, and driven by interests and issues that do not necessarily lead to a more integrated stewardship of the marine natural values of either Shark Bay or Florida Bay. Here we describe the status of our current knowledge, introduce the valuable extension of the current knowledge through the papers in this issue and then suggest some future directions. For management, there is a need for a multidisciplinary international science program that focusses research on the ecological resilience of Shark Bay and Florida Bay, the effect of interactions between physical environmental drivers and biological control through behavioural and trophic interactions, and all under increased anthropogenic stressors. Shark Bay offers a ‘pristine template’ for this scale of study.

Recreational motor boating in shallow water can damage submerged natural resources through propeller scarring and these impacts represent one of many factors that affect the health of seagrass ecosystems. Understanding the patterns of seagrass scarring and associations with physical and visitor-use factors can assist in development of management plans that seek to minimise resource damage within marine protected areas. A quantification of seagrass scarring of Florida Bay in Everglades National Park, using aerial imagery, resulted in the detection of a substantial number and length of seagrass scars. Geospatial analyses indicated that scarring was widespread, with the densest areas found in shallow depths, near navigational channels, and around areas most heavily used by boats. Modelling identified areas of high scarring probability, including areas that may experience increased scarring in the future as a result of a reallocation of impacts if management strategies are implemented. New boating-management strategies are warranted to protect seagrass in Florida Bay. An adaptive approach focusing on the most heavily scarred areas, should consider a variety of management options, including education, improved signage, new enforcement efforts and boating restrictions, such as non-motorised zones, or temporary closures. These methods and recommendations are broadly applicable to management of shallow water systems before and after resource impacts have occurred.

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.