Explores rural transformation in Amazônia by (1) reviewing the types of land available in the rural transformation process; (2) emphasizing that land designations impose limits on productive use; (3) examining transformation in agriculture (including crop and livestock production) and its social and environmental impacts; and (4) suggesting implications for policy. Rural transformation in Amazônia remains driven primarily by improved access to markets and increasing demand for agricultural products, but while rural transformation raises incomes overall, it also causes social and environmental disruption. Competitive pressures intensify agricultural production on commercial farms and crowd out smaller, more traditional, less productive farms. Cattle ranching and certain crops prove the main drivers of deforestation. Potential exists for more sustainable production systems, but their adoption currently proves limited in frontier economies. Support for climate-smart and greener agricultural practices therefore remains critical for sustainable rural development. The adoption of diversification options (like agroforestry) in rural Amazônia requires more developed regional markets.

It is often said that Brazil has some of the most advanced forest laws in the world, but this strong legislation has been rarely translated into effective environmental governance. To understand the challenges of implementing environmental policies in Brazil and elsewhere, this study conceptualizes the Forest Code as a socially constructed technology, the effects of which emerge from its specific uses. We find that, in contrast to the prevailing view of this law as having no effects in practice, it produced multiple and contradictory impacts due to its appropriation by different social groups. For the technocrats, the law was a partial success as it represented progress towards science-based territorial planning. For the Rural elite the Forest Code was used as way to block access of poor settlers to fertile public areas to preserve future elite agricultural expansion. Finally, settlers viewed the Code as a way to obtain official clearing authorizations used to substantiate future titling claims. From this examination, the article argues that the prevailing economic and legalist perspectives on the effectiveness of environmental policies need to be complemented by sociological perspectives in order to account for the non-deterministic character of scientific perspectives, laws and the social dynamics behind the multiple appropriations of state apparatuses. By understanding how laws, as technologies, are interpreted and appropriated by different social actors we will be able to contribute by proposing legal apparatuses that are more appropriate for the local context in which they are supposed to function.

Although still the largest expanse of tropical rainforests in the world, the Amazon is suffering a declining capacity to deliver ecosystem services, to which the widespread use of fire is one of the main contributing factors. Even if fires directly affect the timber sector, most current logging practices often tend to increase rather than mitigate the problem. We argue that in order to involve the timber sector in fire mitigation policies in the Amazon it is crucial to assess the economic impact of fire on the sector. This paper describes EcoFire (Economic Cost of Fire), a spatially explicit model for valuing the economic losses to sustainable timber harvest operations in the Brazilian Amazon as a result of fire. To conduct this analysis, we have integrated a set of models that simulate the synergy between logging and fire spread and intensity. Our results show that fire affects roughly 2% of the timber production areas that would be harvested between 2012 and 2041. In burnt areas, fire causes losses on average of US $39 ± 2 ha/year (equivalent annual annuity), which represents a loss of 0.8% of expected rents. Yet losses can reach up to US $183 ± 30 ha/year in areas hit by recurrent fires that are near milling centres. The results indicate that some of the municipalities that are likely to accumulate most economic losses due to fire do not yet have local‐level fire mitigation programmes. We therefore conclude that spatially explicit valuations of the economic impact of fire can pinpoint priorities to better target fire action plans as well as to engage local actors in integrated fire management practices.

Small landholders' contribution to Amazon deforestation in Brazil has been persistent even after government actions have allowed a steep reduction in the overall annual deforestation area since 2004. We investigate land clearing and the incentives to comply versus not to comply with environmental legislation, allowing for selection into compliance or noncompliance due to unobserved perceptions of Forest Code enforcement. Our dynamic land clearing model is empirically tested through an endogenous switching regression method applied to data collected from households in the Transamazon-BR163 region between 2003 and 2014, when Forest Code enforcement supposedly increased. We show that smallholder compliance and noncompliance preferences lead to a selection problem that must be addressed in any land clearing behavior examination. We find that greater marginalization, longer land tenure and transitions to cattle grazing, but not agricultural rents, are major contributors to forest clearance and incentives not to comply with the Forest Code.

Cattle ranching accounts for 44% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land use sector in Brazil. In response, Brazil has proposed a massive pasture restoration program that aspires to make ranching more competitive while at the same time reducing associated GHG emissions. Pasture restoration, however, is only one of several intensification options that could be employed to achieve these goals. Here we analyze potential production, economic return and GHG emissions from an intensification strategy based mainly on pasture restoration and compare its productive, economic and GHG emissions performances with intensification options more focused on supplemental feeding (grain-feed supplementation of grazing animals and animal finishing in feedlots). To this end, we developed a multi-sectoral, deterministic simulation model of the ranching system and applied it to Mato Grosso state, the largest producer and earliest adopter of intensive production. To account for GHG emissions, we performed a life cycle analysis of a complete beef production cycle. Our results show that an intensification strategy focused more heavily on pasture restoration does reduce GHG emissions but produces the least favorable economic and GHG emissions outcomes when compared with a range of supplemental feeding alternatives. In view of these results, Brazil should seek a more diversified strategies for cattle intensification in its climate mitigation policy.

Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) contribute to the livelihoods of more than 6 million households in the Brazilian Amazon. Of the three most important NTFPs in the Brazilian Amazon - rubber, Brazil nut, and acai - the latter is the least known, but the one with the most potential and fastest growing markets. Here we map the socioecology of acai extractive systems in the Western Amazon state of Acre, Brazil. We interviewed 49 extractivists in settlements and in the emblematic Extractivist Reserve Chico Mendes (RCM) to model ecology (tree density, productivity) and production chain of acai (prices, costs and net revenues) for an area of 164,000 km(2). We estimate a potential annual production of 850 thousand tons for the entire Acre State, which could generate net revenues of US$ 71 million/yr. This is well above the average production of 136 thousand tonnes (over the last 25 years). Net revenues average US$ 57 ha(-1).yr(-1), with acai contributing, on average, to 17% of the annual household income. In two case studies, we found a diversity of livelihoods comprising agriculture, NTFP collection, and livestock rearing that were grouped in two broad types of extractivist livelihoods: "old" and "new" settlers. Our results suggest that old settlers tend to focus on cattle ranching as their main economic activity, even inside extractive reserves (RESEX). The shift from extractivist activities to cattle ranching undermines the conservation role of this type of protected area. We conclude that without significant financial support in the forms of subsidies and other development programs NTFPs will continue to struggle against the economics of cattle ranching.

Brazil recently began granting timber concessions in public forests to promote sustainable forest use. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on the design and implementation of the concessions themselves as well as their competitive position within the logging sector as a whole. There is, however, a lack of information on the competitive interaction between legal and illegal logging and its effects on concessions profits. We address this knowledge gap by using a spatially explicit simulation model of the Amazon timber industry to examine the potential impact of illegal logging on timber concessions allocation and profits in a 30-year harvest cycle. In a scenario in which illegal logging takes place outside concessions, including private and public "undesignated" lands, concession harvested area would decrease by 59% due to competition with illegal logging. Moreover, 29 out of 39 National Forests (≈74%) would experience a decrease in harvested area. This "leakage" effect could reduce concession net rents by up to USD 1.3 Billion after 30 years. Federal and State "undesignated" lands, if not adequately protected, could have 40% of their total volume illegally harvested in 30 years. Our results reinforce the need to invest in tackling illegal logging, if the government wants the forest concessions program to be successful.

The intensification of beef production has become a conservation target based on the idea of land sparing and the assumption that in order to contain deforestation and meet increasing beef demand we must increase productivity. There is also increasing attention and conservation credit being given to supply chain management in beef production. Based on a historical comparison between the US, a fully intensive system, and Brazil, one moving in that direction, we suggest that cattle ranching will intensify as a result of conservation investments (reductions in capital and land subsidies) rather than intensifying in order to produce conservation results. If the comparison holds, the new intensive system, however, will continue to require large natural resource inputs, government subsidies, and be plagued by social and conservation problems. It will also be held in thrall by a few large processing companies, which exert undue influence over both producers and consumers. Therefore, we suggest that closer attention be paid to attribution in the claim of conservation outcomes from intensive beef production.

Large-scale forest restoration is a cornerstone of Brazil's new Forest Code and a key element in its National Determined Contribution (NDC) to emissions reduction. But the path to this target remains unclear due to a lack of information on its economics and implementation challenges. Here, we begin to fill this gap by developing a spatially-explicit model for Minas Gerais state that estimates the costs and benefits of native vegetation regeneration under different restoration approaches. Our results show that 36% (0.7 million ha) of the Forest Code debt in Minas Gerais can be restored using only passive restoration, at a cost of US$ 175 +/- 47 million. Adding lowcost assisted natural regeneration would increase that number to 75% (1.5 million ha) at a cost of US$ 776 +/- 137 million over a 20 yr period. This would result in a potential sequestration of 284 MtCO(2)e. However, including the intensive planting methods needed to restore the remaining 25% of highly degraded areas-to fully solve the Forest Code debt and result in a potential sequestration of 345 MtCO(2)e-would more than double the costs to US$ 1.7 +/- 0.3 billion. Our results emphasize the need to implement regional policies that take advantage of the natural regeneration potential as well as prioritize the restoration of areas key to ecosystem services.

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Brazil faces an enormous challenge to implement its revised Forest Code. Despite big losses for the environment, the law introduces new mechanisms to facilitate compliance and foster payment for ecosystem services (PES). The most promising of these is a market for trading forest certificates (CRAs) that allows landowners to offset their restoration obligations by paying for maintaining native vegetation elsewhere. We analyzed the economic potential for the emerging CRA market in Brazil and its implications for PES programs. Results indicate a potential market for trading 4.2 Mha of CRAs with a gross value of US$ 9.2±2.4 billion, with main regional markets forming in the states of Mato Grosso and São Paulo. This would be the largest market for trading forests in the world. Overall, the potential supply of CRAs in Brazilian states exceeds demand, creating an opportunity for additional PES programs to use the CRA market. This expanded market could provide not only monetary incentives to conserve native vegetation, but also environmental co-benefits by fostering PES programs focused on biodiversity, water conservation, and climate regulation. Effective implementation of the Forest Code will be vital to the success of this market and this hurdle brings uncertainty into the market. Long-term commitment, both within Brazil and abroad, will be essential to overcome the many challenges ahead.

In 2006 Brazil passed legislation allowing concessions for industrial timber harvest in public forests. This decision was part of a broader effort to control deforestation, which had spiked to its second highest level, of about 25,000 km2, in 2004. Specifically, concessions were implemented as a means to control a rampaging timber industry while providing a source of accessible timber for sustainable harvest. Timber concessions, however, are not without their critics worldwide. Here we review the process undertaken to address international concerns over concessions in the policy design, we discuss the process of implementation in Brazil from 2007 to 2014 and then attempt to provide insight into the challenges that lie ahead. Our findings suggest that even though Brazil’s policy designers had the full knowledge of the difficulties with timber concessions, and attempted to design a concession framework to address those concerns, deeper structural problems within the industry and within government itself have prevented the successful scaling up of the concession model. Key hurdles include: government overlap and duplication causing unbearable transaction costs and risks to investors; an industry ill prepared and unwilling to adapt to the stringent requirements set in the policy; and little success in curtailing illegal logging beyond concession borders. While concessions remain a potentially important tool for the management of public forests, additional resources and time will need to be invested to overcome these barriers.

This study contributes to the design of public policies for the forestry sector in Madre de Dios, Peru. We developed a timber rent model that estimates optimal stumpage fees and compared three scenarios of harvestable areas access versus two harvest methods to calculate potential revenues to the State. We found that current stumpage fees undervalue timber resources and thus provide windfall profits to loggers. Annual forest revenues to the State could be increased from US$1 million to a maximum annual average of US$23.4±1.4 million over a 20-year period if the fee structure suggested from our estimations were adopted. Similarly, we show that the spatial distribution of current fees encourages timber harvesting outside of timber concessions, in particular from Brazil-nut concessions, which compete with timber concessions to supply timber to markets. Our results suggest that timber harvesting should be limited to a maximum volume of 5m3/ha inside Brazil-nut concessions and that timber harvesting in all Madre de Dios could be increased by up to ~200% over the next 20years without threatening conservation areas. This would in turn provide additional revenues to the State that could be applied to better monitoring and forest management.

☆ Funding for this study was obtained from the National Science Foundation, grant number DEB-0410315. Additional funding was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundations; NASA Large Scale Biosphere and Atmosphere Project; and United States Agency for International Development-Brazil Program. Opinions and errors, however, are the authors'. DOI of original article: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.11.018. ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 540 231 5943; fax: +1 540 231 3698. E-mail address: gamacher@vt.edu (G.S. Amacher).

Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to 200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil's plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO2 emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimates of natural resource harvests often inform rural conservation and development strategies. Retrospective household surveys remain one of the most commonly employed methods for estimating harvests. Pair-wise comparisons of estimates from household surveys versus diary records were performed for household harvests in the Brazilian Amazon. Although diaries and surveys produce similar estimates of mean economic value for different product groups, 33% of product-level estimates showed a three-fold difference between methods with no consistent patterns in discrepancy direction. Significant differences in estimates for highly valued products (cash crops, game animals, and fish) together with higher respondent confidence in diaries may undermine household models based exclusively on surveys.

We use spatially efficient logit models to explore the role of economic incentives on the expansion of cropland in the Mato Grosso region between 2001 and 2004. An empirical measure for agricultural economic rent is used to quantify the desirability of a particular plot of land, which previous research proxies with variables such as distance to roads or urban areas, and simple climatic and edaphic variables. Results indicate that the measure for economic rent provides additional information and explanatory power to one of the most commonly used proxies, distance to roads. As predicted by economic theory, it is not simply access or variation in transportation costs that drives the spatial determinants of agricultural expansion, but the expected total returns from the venture. This suggests that spatially explicit rent models can be used to simulate the location and quantity of land-use change in an economically consistent framework. Such a framework lays the foundation for an enhanced methodology that can evaluate the ability of fiscal policy levers to influence the location of agricultural conversion with the ultimate aim of balancing economic and environmental goals.

Protected areas (PAs) now shelter 54% of the remaining forests of the Brazilian Amazon and contain 56% of its forest carbon. However, the role of these PAs in reducing carbon fluxes to the atmosphere from deforestation and their associated costs are still uncertain. To fill this gap, we analyzed the effect of each of 595 Brazilian Amazon PAs on deforestation using a metric that accounts for differences in probability of deforestation in areas of pairwise comparison. We found that the three major categories of PA (indigenous land, strictly protected, and sustainable use) showed an inhibitory effect, on average, between 1997 and 2008. Of 206 PAs created after the year 1999, 115 showed increased effectiveness after their designation as protected. The recent expansion of PAs in the Brazilian Amazon was responsible for 37% of the region's total reduction in deforestation between 2004 and 2006 without provoking leakage. All PAs, if fully implemented, have the potential to avoid 8.0 +/- 2.8 Pg of carbon emissions by 2050. Effectively implementing PAs in zones under high current or future anthropogenic threat offers high payoffs for reducing carbon emissions, and as a result should receive special attention in planning investments for regional conservation. Nevertheless, this strategy demands prompt and predictable resource streams. The Amazon PA network represents a cost of US$147 +/- 53 billion (net present value) for Brazil in terms of forgone profits and investments needed for their consolidation. These costs could be partially compensated by an international climate accord that includes economic incentives for tropical countries that reduce their carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.