Importance:Accumulating evidence links inflammation and atrial fibrillation (AF). Objective:To assess whether markers of systemic and atrial inflammation are associated with incident AF in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants:The Bruneck Study is a prospective, population-based cohort study with a 20-year follow-up (n = 909). The population included a random sample of the general community aged 40 to 79 years. Levels of 13 inflammation markers were measured at baseline in 1990. Findings were replicated in a case-control sample nested within the prospective Salzburg Atherosclerosis Prevention Program in Subjects at High Individual Risk (SAPHIR) study (n = 1770). Data analysis was performed from February to May 2016. Exposures:Levels of 13 inflammation markers. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incident AF over a 20-year follow-up period in the Bruneck Study. Results:Of the 909 participants included in the Bruneck Study, mean [SD] age was 58.8 (11.4) years and 448 (49.3%) were women. Among the 880 participants free of prevalent AF (n = 29) at baseline, 117 developed AF during the 20-year follow-up period (incidence rate, 8.2; 95% CI, 6.8-9.6 per 1000 person-years). The levels of soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) and osteoprotegerin were significantly associated with incident AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; 95% CI, 1.26-1.78; and 1.46; 95% CI, 1.25-1.69, respectively; P < .001 with Bonferroni correction for both), but osteoprotegerin lost significance after age and sex adjustment (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.87-1.27; P > .99 with Bonferroni correction). Matrix metalloproteinase 9, metalloproteinase inhibitor 1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, P-selectin, fibrinogen, receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, adiponectin, leptin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1, and E-selectin all fell short of significance (after Bonferroni correction in unadjusted and age- and sex-adjusted analyses). The HR for a 1-SD higher soluble VCAM-1 level was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.11-1.62; Bonferroni-corrected P = .03) in a multivariable model. The association was of a dose-response type, at least as strong as that obtained for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (multivariable HR for a 1-SD higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26), internally consistent in various subgroups, and successfully replicated in the SAPHIR Study (age- and sex-adjusted, and multivariable odds ratios for a 1-SD higher soluble VCAM-1 level, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.24-2.96, P = .003; and 2.59; 95% CI, 1.45-4.60; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance:Levels of soluble VCAM-1, but not other inflammation markers, are significantly associated with new-onset AF in the general community. Future studies should address whether soluble VCAM-1 is capable of improving AF risk classification beyond the information provided by standard risk scores.

BACKGROUND Routine apolipoprotein (apo) measurements for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are restricted to apoA-I and apoB. Here, the authors measured an unprecedented range of apolipoproteins in a prospective, population-based study and relate their plasma levels to risk of CVD.OBJECTIVES This study sought to measure apolipoproteins directly by mass spectrometry and compare their associations with incident CVD and to obtain a system-level understanding of the correlations of apolipoproteins with the plasma lipidome and proteome.METHODS Associations of 13 apolipoproteins, 135 lipid species, and 211 other plasma proteins with incident CVD (91 events), defined as stroke, myocardial infarction, or sudden cardiac death, were assessed prospectively over a 10-year period in the Bruneck Study (N = 688) using multiple-reaction monitoring mass spectrometry. Changes in apolipoprotein and lipid levels following treatment with volanesorsen, a second-generation antisense drug targeting apoC-III, were determined in 2 human intervention trials, one of which was randomized.RESULTS The apolipoproteins most significantly associated with incident CVD were apoC-II (hazard ratio per 1 SD [HR/SD]: 1.40; 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.17 to 1.67), apoC-III (HR/SD: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.63), and apoE (HR/SD: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.52). Associations were independent of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol, and extended to stroke and myocardial infarction. Lipidomic and proteomic profiles implicated these 3 very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)-associated apolipoproteins in de novo lipogenesis, glucose metabolism, complement activation, blood coagulation, and inflammation. Notably, apoC-II/apoC-III/apoE correlated with a pattern of lipid species previously linked to CVD risk. ApoC-III inhibition by volanesorsen reduced plasma levels of apoC-II, apoC-III, triacylglycerols, and diacylglycerols, and increased apoA-I, apoA-II, and apoM (all p < 0.05 vs. placebo) without affecting apoB-100 (p = 0.73).CONCLUSIONS The strong associations of VLDL-associated apolipoproteins with incident CVD in the general community support the concept of targeting triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins to reduce risk of CVD. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Objective— The enzyme heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) exerts cytoprotective effects in response to various cellular stressors. A variable number tandem repeat polymorphism in the HO-1 gene promoter region has previously been linked to cardiovascular disease. We examined this association prospectively in the general population. Approach and Results— Incidence of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death was registered between 1995 and 2010 in 812 participants of the Bruneck Study aged 45 to 84 years (49.4% males). Carotid atherosclerosis progression was quantified by high-resolution ultrasound. HO-1 variable number tandem repeat length was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Subjects with ≥32 tandem repeats on both HO-1 alleles compared with the rest of the population (recessive trait) featured substantially increased cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 5.45 [2.39, 12.42]; P <0.0001), enhanced atherosclerosis progression (median difference in atherosclerosis score [interquartile range], 2.1 [0.8, 5.6] versus 0.0 [0.0, 2.2] mm; P =0.0012), and a trend toward higher levels of oxidized phospholipids on apolipoprotein B-100 (median oxidized phospholipids/apolipoprotein B level [interquartile range], 11364 [4160, 18330] versus 4844 [3174, 12284] relative light units; P =0.0554). Increased cardiovascular disease risk in those homozygous for ≥32 repeats was also detected in a pooled analysis of 7848 participants of the Bruneck, SAPHIR, and KORA prospective studies (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 3.26 [1.50, 7.33]; P =0.0043). Conclusions— This study found a strong association between the HO-1 variable number tandem repeat polymorphism and cardiovascular disease risk confined to subjects with a high number of repeats on both HO-1 alleles and provides evidence for accelerated atherogenesis and decreased antioxidant defense in this vascular high-risk group.

Background Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis and a major socioeconomic burden. Our study is the first to explore the association between serum microRNA levels and the development of severe osteoarthritis of the knee and hip joint in the general population.Methods We followed 816 Caucasian individuals from 1995 to 2010 and assessed joint arthroplasty as a definitive outcome of severe osteoarthritis of the knee and hip. After a microarray screen, we validated 12 microRNAs by real-time PCR in the entire cohort at baseline.Results In Cox regression analysis, three microRNAs were associated with severe knee and hip osteoarthritis. let-7e was a negative predictor for total joint arthroplasty with an adjusted HR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.96; p=0.021) when normalised to U6, and 0.76 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.97; p=0.026) after normalisation to the Ct average. miRNA-454 was inversely correlated with severe knee or hip osteoarthritis with an adjusted HR of 0.77 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.97; p=0.028) when normalised to U6. This correlation was lost when data were normalised to Ct average (p=0.118). Finally, miRNA-885-5p showed a trend towards a positive relationship with arthroplasty when normalised to U6 (HR 1.24; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.62; p=0.107) or to Ct average (HR 1.30; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.70; p=0.056).Conclusions Our study is the first to identify differentially expressed circulating microRNAs in osteoarthritis patients necessitating arthroplasty in a large, population-based cohort. Among these microRNAs, let-7e emerged as potential predictor for severe knee or hip osteoarthritis.

Stefan Kiechl and colleagues show that blockade of receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB (RANKL) signaling in hepatocytes by cell type–specific genetic deletion of its receptor promotes greater insulin sensitivity in both a genetic and a nutritional model of type 2 diabetes. They also show epidemiological evidence that elevated serum concentrations of soluble RANKL are a risk factor for the development of this disease.

Objective— Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atherosclerotic vascular disease are closely entangled disorders and often coexist. Whether atherosclerosis predisposes to the development of AF has not been fully elucidated. Approach and Results— This study was performed within the framework of the Bruneck Study, a population-based survey with near-complete participation (932 of 1000), long-term follow-up (1990–2010), and thorough assessment of AF. The carotid arteries served as a window to systemic atherosclerosis and were scanned every 5 years. Pooled logistic regression and multistate proportional hazards models were used to identify risk predictors of incident AF and effects of AF on mortality. During follow-up, 118 new cases of AF were detected (incidence per 1000 person-years of 8.1; 95% confidence interval, 6.8–9.6). Individuals with atherosclerosis were more likely to develop AF than individuals without (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–3.1; P =0.021). This finding applied to women and men and to both baseline and incident atherosclerosis during follow-up. Subjects with atherosclerosis and AF were significantly more likely to die than those with either condition alone ( P =0.0034), and mortality in this group was ≈4-fold compared with individuals free of atherosclerosis and AF (hazard ratio, 4.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6–6.8; P <0.0001). Conclusions— We found that subjects with carotid atherosclerosis are at high risk of developing AF.

Objectives: Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) has raised considerable interest, as it is an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthesis. While increased plasma levels of ADMA have been reported in different cardiovascular disease states, its association with symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) has not been evaluated in a prospective population-based study.Methods and results: We performed a mass spectrometry-based analysis of ADMA and SDMA in the plasma of 572 participants of the Bruneck study. Levels of ADMA and SDMA were significantly correlated with each other (r=0.189, p<0.001). Age and parameters of renal function, however, showed a stronger influence on SDMA than on ADMA. Both ADMA and SDMA were predictive of cardiovascular disease in multivariate analysis and the associated hazard ratios over the 5-year observation period were of similar strength: 3,86 (1.36-10.9) and 7.91 (1.94-32.3) for ADMA and SDMA, respectively (p=0.011 and 0.004). Separate analyses focused on quintile groups of SDMA revealed that the increase in cardiovascular risk was mainly confined to the top category (>0.80 mu mol/L).Conclusion: This study argues against an exclusive ADMA effect in mediating cardiovascular risk. Instead, SDMA, its supposedly inactive counterpart, has similar diagnostic value in this large prospective cohort. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

AIMS To identify factors that influence plasma levels and assess the prognostic value of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity in a prospective, population-based survey of the epidemiology and pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS The Bruneck study is a prospective, population-based survey initiated in 1990. Lp-PLA2 activity and baseline variables for the current analysis were measured in 765 subjects aged 45-84 years in 1995. Incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and transient ischaemic attack) and rates of non-CVD mortality were assessed between 1995 and 2005. Subjects with incident CVD had higher levels of Lp-PLA2 activity (884 +/- 196 vs. 771 +/- 192 micromol/min/L, P < 0.001). Increased Lp-PLA2 activity was significantly related to incident CVD [age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (95%CI) 2.9 (1.6-5.5); third vs. first tertile group; P < 0.001] and with vascular mortality but not with non-CVD mortality. Lp-PLA2 activity was enhanced in subjects with the metabolic syndrome and showed highly significant positive associations with LDL-C, apoB-100, ferritin, and HOMA-IR, and inverse associations with HDL-C and anti-oxidant levels. CONCLUSION Increased Lp-PLA2 activity is associated with metabolic syndrome and incident fatal and non-fatal CVD, but not with non-CVD mortality. Furthermore, Lp-PLA2 activity is strongly influenced by ferritin levels, LDL-C, and apoB-100 supporting its integral role in lipid peroxidation. Clinical utility of Lp-PLA2 activity for prediction of cardiovascular risk has to be explored in future studies.

OBJECTIVE—The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether insulin resistance is associated to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to understand whether this association can be explained by traditional and novel CVD risk factors associated with this metabolic disorder. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We examined a sample representative of the population of Bruneck, Italy (n = 919; aged 40–79 years). Insulin-resistant subjects were those with a score in the top quartile of the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Risk factors correlated with insulin resistance included BMI, A1C, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), fibrinogen, oxidized LDL, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), and adiponectin. Subjects without CVD at baseline were followed up for 15 years for incident CVD, a composite end point including fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke, transient ischemic attack, and any revascularization procedure. RESULTS—During follow-up, 118 subjects experienced a first symptomatic CVD event. Levels of HOMA-IR were higher at baseline among subjects who developed CVD (2.8) compared with those remaining free of CVD (2.5) (P < 0.05). Levels of HOMA-IR also were significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with most CVD risk factors we evaluated. In Cox proportional hazard models, insulin-resistant subjects had an age-, sex-, and smoking-adjusted 2.1-fold increased risk (95% CI 1.3–3.1) of incident symptomatic CVD relative to non–insulin-resistant subjects. After sequential adjustment for physical activity and classic risk factors (A1C, LDL cholesterol, and hypertension) as well as BMI, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and novel risk factors, including fibrinogen, oxidized LDL, hsCRP, VCAM-1, and adiponectin, the association between HOMA-IR and incident CVD remained significant and virtually unchanged (hazard ratio 2.2 [95% CI 1.4–3.6], P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS—HOMA-estimated insulin resistance is associated with subsequent symptomatic CVD in the general population independently of all classic and several nontraditional risk factors. These data suggest that insulin resistance may be an important target to reduce CVD risk.

Background - Overexpression of receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B ligand (RANKL) is a prominent feature of vulnerable atherosclerotic lesions prone to rupture and was thought to contribute to the transition from a stable to an unstable plaque phenotype in both human and murine atherosclerosis because of its ability to promote matrix degradation, monocyte/macrophage chemotaxis, and vascular calcification.Methods and Results - The Bruneck Study is a prospective, population-based survey of men and women 40 to 79 years of age at the 1990 baseline examination. Levels of soluble RANKL and other variables were assessed in 909 subjects ( 1990). All cases of cardiovascular disease were carefully recorded between 1990 and 2005. During follow-up, cardiovascular disease ( defined as ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, and vascular death) manifested in 124 of the 909 subjects. Baseline serum level of RANKL emerged as a highly significant predictor of vascular risk ( adjusted hazard ratio per 1-unit increase in soluble RANKL, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 1.40; P < 0.001). Predictive significance was independent of that afforded by the classic vascular risk factors, C-reactive protein, osteoprotegerin concentration, and severity of carotid atherosclerosis. Findings were internally consistent and robust in a variety of sensitivity analyses. Notably, soluble RANKL was not associated with carotid or femoral artery atherosclerosis.Conclusions - Our study lends large-scale epidemiological support to a role for RANKL in cardiovascular disease. In the absence of a significant association between RANKL and atherosclerosis, the idea that RANKL promotes plaque destabilization and rupture is a highly appealing concept.

Background and Purpose-If chronic inflammation plays a causal role in atherogenesis, individuals with proinflammatory gene variants would be expected to develop more atherosclerosis. We recently found a synergistic association between 3 functional proinflammatory gene polymorphisms/haplotypes and smoking on carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). We replicated this finding in a second large population and extended the analysis by inclusion of other inflammatory conditions (chronic infection and obesity/abnormal glucose tolerance).Methods-Common carotid and femoral artery IMT was determined in the Bruneck Study population (n=810). Proinflammatory variants were determined in 3 genes (IL-6 [-174C, -572G, -597A haplotype], IL-1-receptor antagonist [VNTR *2], and endotoxin receptor CD-14 [-159C]).Results-There was a significant relationship between gene-variant score and carotid IMT: age- and sex-adjusted mean IMT in subjects with 0, 1, and >= 2 gene variants was 936, 987 and 1047 mu m, respectively (P=0.001), and synergistic effects of gene-variant score and smoking on IMT measurements (P=0.040). Analogous findings were obtained for obesity/abnormal glucose tolerance and chronic infection. Interactive effects of gene-variant score and a risk factor score composed of the acquired inflammatory conditions were highly significant (P < 0.001 each). Results were similar for femoral artery IMT.Conclusions-These results provide support for a causal role of inflammation in carotid atherosclerosis, and emphasize the importance of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in this pathogenic pathway. This may help to explain the substantial variability of disease expression in subjects with proinflammatory risk factors such as smoking, diabetes and chronic infection.

We hypothesized that the formation of foam cells and fatty streaks requires a postsecretory oxidative modification of lipoproteins that targets them for rapid uptake by macrophages. Lipid peroxidation may in part depend on the concentration of tissue iron, one of the major oxidants in vivo. We analyzed the relation between sonographically assessed carotid atherosclerosis and body iron stores in a population sample of 847 men and women aged 40 to 79 years. In a logistic regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, and all major vascular risk markers, ferritin emerged as one of the strongest indicators of carotid artery disease in both sexes (40 to 59 R ecent advances in understanding vascular lipid metabolism have yielded new insights into the mechanisms that determine endothelial injury and plaque development. In particular, the postseCTetory modification of lipoproteins has attracted increasing attention. Oxidative changes in the surface structure of low-density lipoproteins enhance the affinity to macrophage scavenger receptors, giving rise to the formation of foam cells and fatty streaks.Prominent iron stores may promote lipid peroxidation and accelerate atherogenesis and cardiovascular disease. This hypothesis recently received empirical support from a large population study (Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study) that demonstrated an enhanced risk of myocardial infarction in middle-aged men with elevated concentrations of serum ferritin. These findings, however, do not necessarily imply a causal role of iron in atherogenesis. Enhanced reperfusion injury, direct cardiotoxicity of high myocardial iron deposits, vasospastic events, and increased blood viscosity may also be significant. We designed the current study to investigate the relation between sonographically assessed carotid atherosclerosis and body iron stores as estimated by serum ferritin. We also investigated physiologically normal iron status and addressed sex differences in the amount of body iron and the manifestation of atherosclerotic vascular disease. Received November 30, 1993; revision accepted June 29, 1994. From the Department of Neurology (S.K., F.A., F.G., F.S., J.W.) and Department of Laboratory Medicine (EJ.), University Ginic Innsbruck (Austria), and the Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital of Bruneck (G.E., A.M., G.R., F.O.) (Italy). Correspondence to Dr J. Willeit, Department of Neurology, University of Innsbruck, AnichstraBe 35, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria. years; odds ratio, 1.54 per 100 /xg/L; P<.001). The predictive significance of ferritin was found to be synergistic with that of hypercholesterolemia. Variations in body iron stores between sexes may partly explain evident sex differences in the expression of carotid atherosclerosis. In the elderly (£60 years) the predictive significance of ferritin was found to decrease parallel to that of apolipoprotein B. The current study suggests a possible role of body iron in early atherogenesis. (ArUriosder Thromb. 1994;14:1625-1630.)

Incidence rates and risk factors for type 2 diabetes in low-risk populations are not well documented. We investigated these in white individuals who were aged 40-79 years and from the population of Bruneck, Italy. Of an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 1,000 individuals who were identified in 1990, 919 underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and an assessment of physiological risk factors for diabetes, including insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment, HOMA-IR), and postchallenge insulin response (Sluiter's Index). Diabetes at baseline by fasting or 2-h OGTT plasma glucose (World Health Organization criteria, n = 82) was excluded, leaving 837 individuals who were followed for 10 years. Incident cases of diabetes were ascertained by confirmed diabetes treatment or a fasting glucose >or=7.0 mmol/l. At follow-up, 64 individuals had developed diabetes, corresponding to a population-standardized incidence rate of 7.6 per 1,000 person-years. Sex- and age-adjusted incidence rates were elevated 11-fold in individuals with impaired fasting glucose at baseline, 4-fold in those with impaired glucose tolerance, 3-fold in overweight individuals, 10-fold in obese individuals, and approximately 2-fold in individuals with dyslipidemia or hypertension. Incidence rates increased with increasing HOMA-IR and decreasing Sluiter's Index. As compared with normal insulin sensitivity and normal insulin response, individuals with low insulin sensitivity and low insulin response had a sevenfold higher risk of diabetes. Baseline impaired fasting glucose, BMI, HOMA-IR, and Sluiter's Index were the only independent predictors of incident diabetes in multivariate analyses. We conclude that approximately 1% of European white individuals aged 40-79 years develop type 2 diabetes annually and that "subdiabetic" hyperglycemia, obesity, insulin resistance, and impaired insulin response to glucose are independent predictors of diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: The present study aimed at evaluating the prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome and at identifying its additional clinical features. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Within a prospective population-based survey examining 888 subjects aged 40–79 y, subjects were identified fulfilling the WHO and the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria for diagnosing the Metabolic Syndrome. In these subjects and in the rest of the sample (controls), several metabolic and nonmetabolic biochemical parameters were compared. RESULTS: The prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome by WHO criteria was 34.1% (95% CI 31.0–37.2) and by NCEP-ATPIII criteria 17.8% (15.5–20.3). The prevalence was significantly higher in older subjects and in those less physically active. Subjects with the Metabolic Syndrome either by WHO or by NCEP-ATPIII criteria showed higher levels of oxidized low-density lipoprotein, apolipoprotein B, urate, leptin, fibrinogen, leukocytes, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, GOT, gamma-GT and soluble endothelial adhesion molecules (E-selectin, vascular adhesion molecule-1 and intercellular adhesion molecule-1) and lower apolipoprotein A concentrations. Insulin resistance, as assessed by the Homeostasis Model Assessment, increased with the increase in the number of traits composing the syndrome found within the single individual. Subjects with insulin resistance had more pronounced abnormalities in several parameters, including the additional features of the syndrome (eg fibrinogen and soluble adhesion molecules). CONCLUSIONS: The Metabolic Syndrome occurs very frequently in the general population aged 40–79 y, and is associated with several additional metabolic and nonmetabolic abnormalities that likely contribute to an increased cardiovascular risk. Insulin resistance seems to play a major role in classic and additional abnormalities featuring the Metabolic Syndrome.

OBJECTIVE - The present study aimed at prospectively evaluating carotid atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD) in subjects with the metabolic syndrome.RESEARCH, DESIGN AND METHODS - Within a prospective population-based survey examining 888 subjects aged 40-79 years, 303 subjects were identified as fulfilling World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and 158 as fulfilling the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)-Adult Treatment Panel (ATP)-III criteria for diagnosing the metabolic syndrome. The 5-year change in carotid status, as assessed by echo-duplex scanning, and incident fatal and nonfatal CHD, as assessed by medical history and death certificates, were compared in subjects with the metabolic syndrome and in the rest of the sample (control subjects).RESULTS - Compared with the control subjects, subjects with the metabolic syndrome by WHO criteria had an increased 5-year incidence and progression of carotid atherosclerosis: 51 vs. 35% developed new plaques (P = 0.021) and 34 vs. 19% developed carotid stenosis >40% (P = 0.002) after adjusting for several confounders. Subjects with the metabolic syndrome by these criteria also had an increased incidence of CHD during follow-up: 8 vs. 3% in control subjects (P = 0.012). Similar results were found when the NCEP-ATPIII criteria were used.CONCLUSIONS - Subjects with the metabolic syndrome are at increased risk for both progressive carotid atherosclerosis and CHD.