In September 2022, ECCO Insights published an analysis by the authors of the early status (Day 54) of the Ukraine war and some potential trajectories. Using a “factors and conditions” array called a Zwicky Box, the authors first illustrated the existing operational and strategic environments, and then demonstrated how identifiable shifts in the condition of specific factors could turn the conflict in Ukraine’s favor. We recently asked the authors to update their earlier analysis and provide us with both a snapshot of the current status (Day 460) and their assessment of how Ukraine and its allies have already and might once again move factors in Ukraine’s favor.

It is unlikely that there is one single action that can end the present conflict in Ukraine without it being accompanied by significant unintended consequences. It is, however, highly likely that a particular combination of actions, if executed with precise timing, an acknowledgment of the centrality of the three principal actors—Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the NATO alliance—and an awareness of amplifying effects, could deliver an end to the conflict on terms favourable to Ukraine. This paper analyses the central factors at the operational and strategic levels to highlight purposeful courses of action that could be developed: actions that are linked directly to sought-after changes in the system. This process is complex in the Ukraine situation due to the extraordinary levels of violence, destruction, and offensive actions that are violating the principle of proportionality in military operations. While the United Nations and the Security Council might be included as fourth and fifth actors, these institutions have thus far taken something of a spectator role in the conflict, and are apparently distracted by their own internal and somewhat underperforming mechanisms for arresting conflicts through assertive action, security resolutions, and other legitimate instruments.

Misinformation, disinformation and mal information are part of the information disorder construct, dominating the information warfare domain. These are key enablers associated with grey zone operations, and an integral part of current adversaries' and competitors' hybrid warfare tool kit. Disinformation, in combination with influence operations, also plays an important role within the concept of hybrid warfare; both from a threat–and own resilience perspective. This article reflects on these information warfare tools and their application by Russia in the current Russo‐Ukraine war, offering potentially considerable force multipliers in the information domain for the Russian aggressor. Hybrid warfare and associated threats, specifically focusing on aspects of information warfare, disinformation, deception (typically within the context of political activity or warfare so commonly associated with Russian active measures) and as part of an adversary's grey zone operations approach are all discussed raising awareness towards building resilience by means of a comprehensive approach to counter such threats to national security.

Many (all?) large cities are experiencing traffic congestion in one form or another. This is typically manifested in the morning and afternoon commutes as the largest numbers of public transport passengers (on rail, tram, bus and ferry) and private car users seek to negotiate transport corridors that are not designed for those volumes within those compressed time frames. It has become known as 'gridlock' and is characteristic of a system pushed well beyond a tipping point. The problem has both technological and social origins with one contributing to and indeed magnifying the other. It is a 'wicked, messy' problem and one that has not responded to (and likely never will) conventional planning practices. This paper investigates the utility of General Morphological Analysis to present the causal factors from a systems-based perspective; expose the underlying and unfavourable conditions that conspire in knowable ways to create this congestion; and offer a more favourable set of conditions based on necessary technological and social adjustments that can eliminate, or at least reduce, the congestion. The method outlined encourages planners to appreciate the complexity of the problem space and design meaningful lines of effort based on a deepened appreciation of numerous interdependencies. The research findings can benefit any large city experiencing congestion and low participation levels in public transport.

Despite a strong desire for an organisational design that aligns with the operational environment and is sustainable, many institutions suffer from the combined effects of systemic factors and other elements associated with rigidity and resistance to change. These factors conspire in unusual ways to delay and hinder those important developments that represent the critical transformation to effect meaningful change. These have become known as 'wicked, messy' problems and must be attended to with alternate planning approaches. This paper presents the use of General Morphological Analysis as a method to identify, investigate and successfully manage those systemic factors within a broader effort aimed at resetting the conditions. The research centred on Australian government support to a major nation in the South Pacific and its efforts to establish and maintain security and law enforcement capabilities alongside other nation building endeavours. The organisational design analysis exposed the principal factors that were central to achievements and detailed their associated conditions; it allowed precise specification of the current conditions; it contrasted these with the desired conditions; and it enabled planners to map a series of achievable changes to get from 'here' to 'there'. Several 'tipping' points were also revealed that encouraged planners to sequence their efforts and set the pre-conditions for more ambitious undertakings. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This paper illustrates a case study in the application of systems approaches to securing economic development for a specific group of indigenous people in Australia. The case study combines Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) with Effects-Based Operations (EBO) planning to realise more purposeful actions and endeavours in pursuit of economic development. The approach is a hybrid of Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), Rhyne’s FAR and an advancement of the EBO process emerging from within national security domains. The paper focuses primarily on the use of FAR as a means of understanding an economic development problem space within a present and future orientation, with minor reference to EBO planning as a method of bringing about purposeful change within a combined solution and design space. The paper seeks to demonstrate the utility of ‘soft’ approaches, such as FAR, in the exploration of economic undevelopment and how more purposeful corrective actions can result if they are harnessed to a deepened understanding of the problem space.

This paper explains the use of Field Anomaly Relaxation, a systems approach to futures planning, in a planning unit of a large international security organisation. Seven drivers, major influences which cannot be changed, act to provide the boundaries for five future world situations arrayed on a Faustian tree, a map of interconnected scenarios. These future worlds are further developed into rich narratives that describe 20 individual scenarios. The product of the futures work is linked back to the organisation to provoke creative thought and unconfined dialogue designed to contribute to initiatives for fruitful change.

This paper reinforces the utility of Field Anomaly Relaxation as a key tool for the construction of futures in which to position areas of interest for analysis. Its use here is focussed on the environment occupied by Special Operations as an instrument of national security policy. Seven drivers are examined which provide the boundaries for five future world situations arrayed on a Faustian tree. These future worlds are further developed into rich narratives that describe 20 individual scenarios. The product of the futures work is linked back into the organisation in question to provoke creative thought and unconfined dialogue for change. The past is of no importance. The present is of no importance. It is with the future that we have to deal. For the past is what man should not have been. The present is what man ought not to be. The future is what artists are. Oscar Wilde