Forecasting during a volcanic crisis is vital to the preservation of life and mitigation of loss during eruption. Decisions on when, where and how to evacuate, where to send the evacuees, and when they can return, are all informed by forecasts of impending volcanic activity. We review input data and models that underlie short-term forecasts during an eruption crisis, software and tools applied, how forecasts are framed, ways to integrate data during a crisis, and several case studies of forecasting in action. The workflow during a crisis can be simplified by precalculation of possible hazard impacts using long-term forecasting techniques. Short-term forecasts should be evaluated after a crisis in order to improve methodology and utility of forecast information. As data availability increases, computational tools are developed, unrest patterns are identified, and underlying processes better understood, there will continue to be improvements in volcanic crisis forecasting and decision support tools.

In this work we present the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk (CVHR) Volcanic Hazard Maps Database and the accompanying volcanichazardmaps.org website. Using input from a series of IAVCEI CVHR Working Group on Hazard Mapping workshops, we developed a classification scheme and terminology framework for categorizing, discussing, naming, and searching for hazard maps. ≥ The database and website aim to serve as a resource for the volcanology community to explore how different aspects of hazard map development and design have been addressed in different countries, for different hazard processes, and for different intended purposes and audiences. Additionally, they act as a tool for presenting hazard map options to stakeholder groups and serve as a learning resource that can be incorporated into educational materials and training courses. In this work, we present the database and website, discuss the classification scheme, explore the enormous diversity of hazard maps, and suggest ways that the database and website can be used by the volcanic hazard mapping community.

In 1999–2001, Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, produced a series of cyclic explosive and effusive eruptions. Rock samples, including dense blocks and pumiceous clasts collected during the eruption sequence, and ballistic bombs later collected from the crater floor, provide information about magma storage, ascent, decompression, degassing, repressurization, and regassing prior to eruption. Pairs of Fe-Ti oxides indicate equilibrium within 1.2–1.5 log units above the NNO oxidation buffer and equilibrium temperatures from 805 to 905 °C. Melt inclusions record H 2 O contents of 2.7–4.6 wt% and CO 2 contents (uncorrected for CO 2 segregation into bubbles) from 19 to 310 ppm. Minimum melt inclusion saturation pressures fall between 69 and 168 MPa, or equilibration depths of 2.8 and 6.8 km, the lower end of which is coincident with the maximum inferred equilibration depths for the most vesicular breadcrust bombs sampled. Amphibole phenocrysts lack breakdown rims (except for one sample) and plagioclase phenocrysts have abundant oscillatory compositional zones. Plagioclase areal microlite number densities ( N a ) range over less than one order of magnitude (8.9×10 3 –8.7×10 4 mm -2 ) among all samples, with the exception of a dense, low crystallinity sample ( N a = 3.0×10 3 mm −2 ) and a pumiceous sample erupted on 17 December 1999 ( N a = 1.7×10 3 mm −2 ). Plagioclase microlite shapes include tabular, hopper, and swallowtail forms. Taken together, the relatively high plagioclase microlite number densities, the high number of oscillatory zones in plagioclase phenocrysts, the presence of CO 2 in groundmass glass, seismicity, and time-varying tilt cycles provide a picture of sudden evacuation of magma residing at different levels in the shallow conduit. Explosive eruptions punctuate inter-eruptive repose periods marked by time-varying rates of degassing (volatile fluxing) and re-pressurization. Shallow residence time in the conduit was sufficient to allow precipitation of silica-phase in the groundmass, but insufficient to allow breakdown of hornblende phenocrysts, with the one exception of the final dome sample from 2000, which has the longest preceding repose time. These results support a model of cyclic pressure cycling, volatile exsolution and regassing, and magma decompression decoupled from ascent.

<p class="western" lang="en-US">Breadcrust bombs are typical products of Vulcanian eruptions. The exteriors of such pyroclasts experience rapid quenching after fragmentation and hence preserve a dense crust with no or limited textural change. The core of breadcrust bombs can instead stay above the glass transition temperature for a long time and evolve texturally as vesicles nucleate and grow. Breadcrust bombs are thus key pyroclasts that provide information about (i) pre-eruptive textural, chemical, and pressure conditions in the conduit at the time of fragmentation, (ii) the link between radial cooling history of the bomb and dynamics of bubble formation and (iii) transition from closed- to open-system degassing in natural magma at near-atmospheric pressure and in the presence of variable amounts of crystals. We analyzed two breadcrust bombs from 1999 Vulcanian activity at Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, previously described by Wright et al. (2007). We performed a quantitative textural analysis along radial profiles from the exterior surface to the interior of the bombs in two dimensions using Scanning electron microscopy, and in three dimensions using synchrotron-based X-ray micro-tomography. This analysis yielded the porosity and vesicle number density change with radial distance. We coupled this textural analysis to a model of viscosity, bubble growth rate and diffusion timescales to shed light on the timing of vesiculation and cooling across the rim to core profile. Our results revealed three vesicle populations: (i) a pre-existing population of large vesicles with a low vesicle number density that was formed prior to fragmentation, (ii) a halo of small and isolated, syn-eruptive vesicles with high vesicle number density formed around these large vesicles in the crust and (iii) vesicles that did not have time to form in the crust and nucleated and grew after fragmentation in the initially vesicle-free groundmass towards the core. We interpret these textures in the light of pre-eruptive conditions in the conduit prior to Vulcanian eruptions preserved in the crust and post-fragmentation vesiculation and transition from closed- to open-system degassing in the core.</p>

EDITORIAL article Front. Earth Sci., 16 March 2023Sec. Volcanology Volume 11 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1182252

The IAVCEI Working Group on Hazard Mapping has been active since 2014 and has facilitated several activities to enable sharing of experiences of how volcanic hazard maps are developed and used around the world. One key activity was a global survey of 90 map makers and practitioners to collect data about official, published volcanic hazard maps and how they were developed. The survey asked questions about map content, design, and input data, as well as about the map development process and key lessons learned. Here we present the results of this global survey, which are then used to quantitatively describe and summarise current practices in volcanic hazard map development. We received entries related to 89 volcanic hazard maps (78% long-term/background maps and 22% short-term/crisis hazard maps), covering a total of 80 volcanoes across 28 countries. Although most maps captured in the survey are volcano-scale maps of stratovolcanoes that show similar types of content, such as primary hazard footprints or zones, they vary greatly in input data, communication style, format, appearance, scale, content, and visual design. This diversity stems from a range of factors, including differences in map purpose, the methodology used, the level of understanding of past eruptive history, the prevailing scientific and cartographic practice at the time, the state of volcanic activity, and variations in culture, national map standards and legal requirements. Experiences and lessons shared by our respondents can be divided into six main themes: map design considerations; the process of map development; map audience and map user needs; hazard assessment approach; map availability and accessibility; and external (e.g., political) influences. Insights shared included the importance of: visual design elements, map testing and evaluation, working with stakeholders and end users to improve a map’s efficacy and relevance, and considering possible unanticipated uses of hazard maps. These free-form text insights (i.e., responses to open-ended questions) from map makers and practitioners familiar with the maps lend depth and clarity to our results. They provide a rich complement to our more quantitative analysis of design elements and of approaches used to determine and delineate map zones. Results from our global survey of hazard map makers and practitioners, together with insights from other key initiatives of the Working Group on Hazard Mapping such as the Volcanic Hazard Maps Database (VHMD; https://volcanichazardmaps.org/ ), provide a snapshot of the wide variety of volcanic hazard maps generated over the past decades, and improve our understanding of the diversity across volcanic hazard mapping practices. These initiatives represent important steps towards fulfilling the aims of the Working Group, namely, to construct a framework for a classification scheme for volcanic hazard maps and to promote harmonized terminology, as well as to identify and categorise good practices and considerations for volcanic hazard mapping.

Here, we review volcanic risk management at Mount St. Helens from the perspective of the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) experience over the four decades since its 18 May 1980 climactic eruption. Prior to 1980, volcano monitoring, multidisciplinary eruption forecasting, and interagency coordination for eruption response were new to the Cascade Range. A Mount St. Helens volcano hazards assessment had recently been published and volcanic crisis response capabilities tested during 1975 thermal unrest at nearby Mount Baker. Volcanic unrest began in March 1980, accelerating the rate of advance of volcano monitoring, prompting coordinated eruption forecasting and hazards communication, and motivating emergency response planning. The destruction caused by the 18 May 1980 eruption led to an enormous emergency response effort and prompted extensive coordination and planning for continuing eruptive activity. Eruptions continued with pulsatory dome growth and explosive eruptions over the following 6 years and with transport of sediment downstream over many more. In response, USGS scientists and their partners expanded their staffing, deployed new instruments, developed new tools (including the first use of a volcanic event tree) for eruption forecasting, and created new pathways for agency internal and external communication. Involvement in the Mount St. Helens response motivated the establishment of response measures at other Cascade Range volcanoes. Since assembly during the early and mid-1990s, volcano hazard working groups continue to unite scientists, emergency and land managers, tribal nations, and community leaders in common cause for the promotion of risk reduction. By the onset of renewed volcanic activity in 2004, these new systems enabled a more efficient response that was greatly facilitated by the participation of organizations within volcano hazard working groups. Although the magnitude of the 2004 eruptive sequence was much smaller than that of 1980, a new challenge emerged focused on hazard communication demands. Since 2008, our understanding of Mount St. Helens volcanic system has improved, helping us refine hazard assessments and eruption forecasts. Some professions have worked independently to apply the Mount St. Helens story to their products and services. Planning meetings and working group activities fortify partnerships among information disseminators, policy and decision-makers, scientists, and communities. We call the sum of these pieces the Volcanic Risk Management System (VRMS). In its most robust form, the VRMS encompasses effective production and coordinated exchange of volcano hazards and risk information among all interested parties.

Stratovolcanoes are often characterized by cyclic eruptive activity marked by effusive-explosive transitions between dome-forming and Plinian eruptions. Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) has been a location of such cyclicity for the past ~2000 years with recurrent Plinian eruptions in the 1st century, 10th century, and CE 1660 which were separated by dome-forming eruptions such as the recent 1999-2001 eruption. Short time-scale shifts in activity between dome-forming, Vulcanian and Subplinian eruptions also occurred repeatedly in the period September to December 1999. These cycles are therefore a prominent example of effusive-explosive transitions at varying timescales. Here, we investigate the reasons for such shifts in activity, by focusing on degassing and outgassing processes within the conduit, and their roles in pressurization and ensuing eruption dynamics. We have coupled a petrophysical and vesicle textural analysis of dacites from the CE 1660 Plinian eruption and the dome-forming, Vulcanian and Subplinian 1999-2001 eruptions, with percolation models in order to better understand the role of degassing on eruptive style. We demonstrate that the transition from dome-forming to Plinian activity correlates with differences in phenocryst content and consequently in inferred bulk viscosity. A lower initial viscosity is inferred for the Plinian case, consistent with faster ascent, closed-system degassing, explosive fragmentation and eruption. In contrast, dome-forming phases are promoted by a higher magma viscosity, with slower ascent enhancing gas escape and microlite crystallization, yielding effusive activity.

Following rapid decompression in the conduit of a volcano, magma breaks into ashto block-sized fragments, powering explosive sub-Plinian and Plinian eruptions that may generate destructive pyroclastic falls and flows. It is thus crucial to assess how magma breaks up into fragments. This task is difficult, however, because of the subterranean nature of the entire process and because the original size of pristine fragments is modified by secondary fragmentation and expansion. New textural observations of sub-Plinian and Plinian pumice lapilli reveal that some primary products of magma fragmentation survive by sintering together within seconds of magma break-up. Their size distributions reflect the energetics of fragmentation, consistent with products of rapid decompression experiments. Pumice aggregates thus offer a unique window into the previously inaccessible primary fragmentation process and could be used to determine the potential energy of fragmentation.

Despite the common occurrence of heterogeneous andesitic eruptions, few studies have investigated the compositional effects on microlite crystallization and vesiculation in co-erupted natural samples. In 2006, Augustine Volcano erupted compositionally heterogeneous andesites that range from 56.4 to 63.3 wt% SiO 2 and include two endmember lithologic groups: low-silica andesite (LSA) and high-silica andesite (HSA). Textural and compositional differences between LSA and HSA end members are explored for two discrete, sequential vulcanian explosions from January 17 (event 9) and 27 (event 10), 2006. Groundmass glass compositions of pyroclasts within LSA and HSA compositional suites are not colinear and do not correlate with plagioclase microlite crystallinities, indicating eruption from multiple isolated shallow magma reservoirs with various pressure-temperature pathways. HSA pyroclasts have lower crystallinities, 0.02–0.24, than most LSA pyroclasts, 0.16–0.39, demonstrating the influence of composition on crystallinity. Additionally, microlite textural and groundmass glass compositional differences exist between consecutive vulcanian explosions. The event 9 deposits have a typical bimodal density distribution and groundmass glass compositions range from 65 to 78 wt% SiO 2 . Plagioclase microlite number densities (MN V ) are 10 4.6–6.4  mm −3 and crystallinities are 0.02 to 0.28, similar to products from other andesitic vulcanian eruptions. Deposits from the early phase of event 10 have a bimodal density distribution and contain a high proportion of LSA pyroclasts, similar to event 9. Groundmass glass compositions range from 72 to 79 wt% SiO 2 and plagioclase MN V are 10 5.9–6.3  mm −3 , forming narrower ranges compared to event 9. A transition occurred during the later phase of event 10 to a unimodal density distribution, a more homogeneous groundmass glass composition, 75–78 wt% SiO 2 , a higher proportion of HSA pyroclasts, and the highest MN V of 10 5.9–6.7  mm −3 . We interpret this shift to reflect eruption from reservoir depths around 4–6 km and the cessation of pre-eruptive magma staging in the upper conduit, transitioning the eruption to continuous and effusive phases. Attention to heterogeneous andesitic erupted products reveals additional details about heterogeneous shallow magma storage, variable upper conduit magma staging, and a range of pressure-temperature paths prior to fragmentation.

After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. Although the seismic unrest peaked in late September and early October, the volcano did not start erupting until 21 November. The most intense explosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred between 25 and 29 November. Smaller infrequent explosions and extrusions continue through the present (June 2019). The delay between intense unrest and eruption caused considerable challenges to emergency responders, local and national governmental agencies, and the population of Bali near the volcano, including over 140,000 evacuees. This paper provides an overview of the volcanic activity at Mount Agung from the viewpoint of the volcano observatory and other scientists responding to the volcanic crisis. We discuss the volcanic activity as well as key data streams used to track it. We provide evidence that magma intruded into the mid-crust in early 2017, and again in August of that year, prior to intrusion of an inferred dike between Mount Agung and Batur Caldera that initiated an earthquake swarm in late September. We summarize efforts to forecast the behavior of the volcano, to quantify exclusion zones for evacuations, and to work with emergency responders and other government agencies to make decisions during a complex and tense volcanic crisis.

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2weeks to 1year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

At Kawah Ijen (Indonesia), vigorous SO2 and HCl degassing sustains a hyperacid lake (pH ~0) and intensely alters the subsurface, producing widespread residual silica and advanced argillic alteration products. In 1817, a VEI 2 phreatomagmatic eruption evacuated the lake, depositing a widespread layer of muddy ash fall, and sending lahars down river drainages. We discovered multiple types of opaline silica in juvenile low-silica dacite pumice and in particles within co-erupted laharic sediments. Most spectacular are opal-replaced phenocrysts of plagioclase and pyroxene adjacent to pristine matrix glass and melt inclusions. Opal-bearing pumice has been found at numerous sites, including where post-eruption infiltration of acid water is unlikely. Through detailed analyses of an initial sampling of 1817 eruption products, we find evidence for multiple origins of opaline materials in pumice and laharic sediments. Evidently, magma encountered acid-altered materials in the subsurface and triggered phreatomagmatic eruptions. Syn-eruptive incorporation of opal-alunite clasts, layered opal, and fragment-filled vesicles of opal and glass, all suggest magma-rock interactions in concert with vesiculation, followed by cooling within minutes. Our experiments at magmatic temperature confirm that the opaline materials would show noticeable degradation in time periods longer than a few tens of minutes. Some glassy laharic sedimentary grains are more andesitic than the main pumice type and may represent older volcanic materials that were altered beneath the lake bottom and were forcefully ejected during the 1817 eruption. A post-eruptive origin remains likely for most of the opal-replaced phenocrysts in pumice. Experiments at 25°C and 100°C reveal that when fresh pumice is bathed in Kawah Ijen hyperacid fluid for six weeks, plagioclase is replaced without altering either matrix glass or melt inclusions. Moreover, lack of evidence for high-temperature annealing of the opal suggests that post-eruption alteration of pumice is more likely than pre-eruption envelopment of euhedral opal-replaced phenocrysts in dacitic melt. At Ijen and elsewhere, the ascent of magma into hydrous acid-altered mineral assemblages (e.g., opal, kaolinite, alunite) could induce rapid dehydration of hydrous minerals and amorphous materials, generating considerable steam and contributing to magmatic-hydrothermal and phreatomagmatic explosions.