Heat-related risks pose a significant challenge to public health; therefore, the topic has gained increased attention in science and policy. As climate change accelerates, integrating adaptation strategies into urban planning is essential for risk management. However, urban adaptation plans often underrepresent household adaptive capacities and their priorities regarding adaptation actions. To adequately explore these aspects, the present study assesses the willingness of adaptation decisions undertaken by different socio-economic groups across residential urban structure types (USTs) in Berlin, Germany. A large household survey encompassing 569 households form the basis of this assessment. Descriptive statistics, bivariate correlation, and Poisson regression revealed how USTs, socio-economic factors and heat-specific adaptive capacity influence households' behaviour (e.g., activity patterns and ventilation) and implemented structural adaptation measures (e.g., shading and building insulation). While household previous experience, preparedness and expectations towards authorities influence behavioural adaptation, structural measures are more dependent on USTs, ownership status, household size etc. The empirical data show that households living in (semi-)detached and terraced houses, owners and those living with a family are more likely to implement structural adaptation measures. Existing and future urban adaptation plans focusing on heat-sensitive urban planning can employ this method to plan and monitor adaptation actions across different urban structures.
Current Loss and Damage frameworks remain largely reactive, prioritising post-disaster response. We argue for better integration of ex-ante and ex-post approaches, including building back better strategies, to break recurring cycles of loss and recovery. Drawing on a scoping review, selected case studies, and expert consultations, we identify three enabling conditions- robust knowledge systems, inclusive governance, and flexible finance- to strengthen both short-term recovery and long-term resilience.
Climate change will affect most of the world’s urban population. Developing resilient urban environments requires improved weather and climate modelling. Heterogeneity exists from street (100m) to neighbourhood (1km) to city (10km) scales due to urban form and function. How should it be parameterised, given that it influences atmospheric processes acting over a similar range of scales?To address this challenge, we combine city-scale field observations, resident interviews, high-resolution numerical (LES, NWP) and wind-tunnel (WT) modelling. The focus is on Bristol, UK, as it is compact, has representative land-use, and has coastal proximity and complex terrain. It follows other year-long urbisphere project campaigns in Berlin, Paris, Freiburg, and Heraklion.This talk provides an overview of the WT, LES and NWP modelling and observations thus far in the project. A case study is described where the sub-neighbourhood scale Avon River Gorge influences boundary layer and dispersion processes.
Climate change already affects most of the world’s urban population. Developing resilient urban environments requires improving both weather and climate modelling. Heterogeneity exists from street (100 m) to neighbourhood (1 km) to city (10 km) scales due to urban form and function. Hectometric-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) may be starting to resolve neighbourhood-scale heterogeneity but how can observation networks be designed to capture spatial variation in urban climates (horizontally and vertically) to evaluate these model predictions robustly?To address these challenges, we combine city-scale field observations, resident interviews, high-resolution numerical (Large Eddy Simulation, NWP) and wind-tunnel modelling. Three research projects (ASSURE, urbisphere, and UrbanAIR) have collaborated to design and maintain an urban observation network in the UK. The focus is on Bristol as it is compact, has representative land-use, is close to the coast, and lies in relatively low-lying complex terrain. Bristol City authorities had previously used Met Office climate simulations at 2.2 km resolution to plan for urban heat vulnerability. Both partners were engaged in our design of a network of over 40 lamp-post mounted automatic weather stations that has run since spring 2024. A network of ground-based remote sensing (Doppler wind lidars, automatic lidar ceilometers) was deployed at six sites across the city to observe boundary layer development in response to the urban surface and orography. Other observations included indoor climate, radiation, vegetation, and tracer gas dispersion experiments. The core Bristol field campaign ran from spring 2024-2025 but a sub-set of measurements is ongoing. This follows other year-long urbisphere campaigns in Berlin, Paris, Freiburg, and Heraklion.This talk provides an overview of the observation network in the Bristol project and the data-set obtained. Key findings will be presented where field and modelling approaches were combined to design the deployment, e.g., a Virtual Doppler Lidar approach using LES, lessons learned from a testbed of a high-resolution NWP ensemble.
ABSTRACT The 2021 floods in Western Europe caused unprecedented damage, revealing major weaknesses in early warning as well as disaster risk governance. In Germany, the inter‐ and transdisciplinary KAHR project was established to provide science‐based support for climate‐adapted reconstruction. This paper analyzes how KAHR operationalized an expanded Building Back Better (BBB) framework through interdisciplinary collaboration and close engagement with authorities and communities. Key contributions include advanced flood risk modeling to guide catchment‐scale planning, household‐level adaptation, as well as input for the relocation of critical and social infrastructure. Surveys on psychosocial impacts supported the design of mental health services, while new governance structures and planning instruments enabled more effective reconstruction. Our findings show that embedding research into recovery processes can be an effective strategy for translating scientific knowledge into actionable solutions aiming at strengthening climate adaptation during the reconstruction. While the results contribute to international debates on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, they also offer practical insights for implementing BBB in flood risk management under climate change. This article is categorized under: Human Water > Water Governance Science of Water > Water Extremes
A growing body of literature shows that cities are key actors in mitigation and adaptation to climate change. However, there is less knowledge about the approaches and challenges urban planners face in building resilience. Existing studies often focus on specific planning tools in selected cities, while limited attention is given to the wider assessment of challenges and tools used in different world regions and across income classes. This paper explores how urban planning-related challenges and measures for strengthening resilience vary across city sizes, regions, and income groups based on a systematic review of scientific papers applying the ROSES standards. The first analysis included 3410 articles, and following multiple screening iterations, 398 papers were ultimately considered for in-depth review. Data extraction was supported by LLM-based software, and the results were verified through in-person checking. We find that administrative issues (institutional fragmentation and lack of cooperation) are mentioned most frequently as a challenge across regions. In contrast, land-use conflicts differ significantly between world regions, though less so between cities of different size. Differences also emerge, e.g. in terms of the use of nature-based approaches (NbA) and digital tools. NbA are more frequently discussed in the literature that refers to small and very small cities compared to megacities and large cities. NbA are not solely common in Europe, but also in Africa and Small Island States. IT and digital tools are more frequently mentioned in papers that deal with cities in high-income countries. This digital divide points to the fact that the resources available to invest in such tools and technology also depend on income levels and financial resources. Overall, the findings underscore that multi-level governance and development conditions are important factors that influence the challenges faced by urban planning and its capacity to support resilience building.
The international discourse on loss and damages (L&Ds) under the climate convention is ongoing. Significant attention has been given to a dedicated fund to assist vulnerable countries to recover from climate related L&D. While much of the political discussion focuses on the amount of funding needed and who should pay, less attention is given to risk reduction initiatives eligible for the L&D funding mechanisms. There is also an emerging need to link L&D funding with adaptation (funds) which is not yet being given enough consideration. Against this background, the paper presents different dimensions of L&D for example on severity and compensability, and provides a new perspective that goes beyond the current discourse of economic versus non-economic or direct versus indirect L&D. A global analysis is complemented with a set of L&D related case studies to explore both conventional economic dimensions of L&D, and under-represented dimensions, such as population displacement and human mobility, territory and cultural heritage. These cases highlight how different types of L&D are articulated in climate related initiatives. The cases point towards the need to better connect L&D and adaptation strategies and funding to strengthen climate resilience. The paper informs the ongoing international debate on L&D, highlighting the importance of understanding its different dimensions, the effectiveness of climate-related policies across countries and the need to rethink the concept of L&D as compensation, since this falls short of supporting climate resilience. Recommendations emphasize national and local level monitoring, funding tools and international cooperation.
The effectiveness and feasibility of different risk reduction and adaptation measures are increasingly discussed, however, limited assessments exist on how measures, such as buffer zones and relocation, are perceived in the short- and long-term. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 is an important case to explore how coastal protection measures were perceived after the event and today, 20 years later. The paper examines how post-disaster relocation and buffer zone policies influenced people’s living conditions over 2 decades. Firstly, we assess global patterns of displacement due to natural hazards. The global analysis serves to situate the Sri Lankan case within the broader patterns of disaster-related mobility and displacement. Secondly, we explore short and long-term impacts of relocation and buffer zone policies in Sri Lanka and assess the living conditions and perceptions of these risk reduction and adaptation measures. Thirdly, we examine factors that influence the decision to stay or leave the relocation site, also conducting regression analysis. Fourthly, we propose policy-relevant recommendations in order to improve relocation projects and buffer zone policies. Important factors that influence people’s decision to stay or leave the relocation site encompass the access to land, educational infrastructures, transport options and access to markets or jobs. While many institutions involved in designing and implementing buffer zone and relocation policies view these measures as one-time interventions that primarily need a careful planning in the beginning, we rather argue that challenges associated with relocation and buffer zones change over time and thus require continued monitoring and learning.
Climate change and urbanisation are exacerbating climate risk, including pluvial flooding. Effective risk reduction therefore requires not only accounting for changing hazard patterns under future climate scenarios, but also understanding how land-use change, particularly urban expansion, modifies flood dynamics. This study assesses impact of urban development on pluvial flood exposure in the Stuttgart Region, Germany. We develop and simulate two spatially explicit urban growth scenarios based on current spatial plans: (1) a business-as-usual scenario reflecting current development practices, and (2) a climate-sensitive scenario characterised by more compact development, increased permeable green space, and the integration of blue-green infrastructure. These land-use scenarios are incorporated into a two-dimensional surface runoff model to evaluate their influence on flood extent, maximum depth and maximum flow velocity under an exceptional rainfall event. The results show that urban expansion can both exacerbate or reduce pluvial flooding in existing settlements, including impacts that extend across municipal boundaries. This demonstrates that local and regional planning decisions, as well as policy shaping development, can influence pluvial flood risk. This study’s spatially explicit, regional-level approach, which integrates spatial plans and development strategies, is transferable to other growing regions and can be linked with other modelling and scenario-based approaches. The findings provide further evidence for policy and planning practice of the importance of integrating water-sensitive design measures into new developments and of coordinating cross-boundary impact of plans and developments on flood risk.
The role of vegetation in urban climate has been in the spotlight in recent years, as it can play significant roles in carbon sequestration through photosynthesis as well as in the urban energy balance, mainly through evapotranspiration and shading. Based on these, the green infrastructureof cities is considered as a potential solution to lower the urban net CO2 exchange and lower air temperatures, improving the resilience of cities in the context of climate change.Being part of the general physiological responses of trees, the abovementioned mechanismshave been excessively studied in natural environments. However, the quantification of the different effects of these processes in complex and heterogeneous urban landscapes is challenging. In this study, we demonstrate initial results of a year-long observation period of tree vegetation in a residential area in Berlin, Germany, using PhenoCam and flux-tower observations. The phenology curves were extracted from half-hourly PhenoCam images of trees from the Acer, Aesculus, Fagus, and Pinus genera and analysed in combination with comprehensive observations of thesurface energy balance components, including net radiation, turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as CO2 fluxes and standard meteorological variables. We showcase the agreement between the gradual development of tree foliage fordeciduous vegetation (which dominates the area) with: a) the upward latent heat flux seasonal maxima observations; and b) the decline of upward CO2 flux values. In particular, the timing of the start of season (SOS), peak of season (POS) and end of season (EOS) is assessed and compared to changes detected in the flux trends. Our data indicates a strong connection of the green-up period of deciduous vegetation with the largest rate of decrease of the CO2 fluxes, leading to a change from CO2 source to sink for a constrained time period. These observations highlight the measurable effect of vegetation-related carbon sequestration that can take place in urban areas with significant vegetation cover under specific/average meteorological conditions.
Severe flooding, induced by heavy rainfall in Central and Western Europe in July 2021, particularly affected the Ahr Valley in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. Since flood preparedness and prevention of private households play a crucial role in the risk management cycle and in terms of climate adaptation, a household survey was conducted in the county of Ahrweiler in the aftermath of the disaster to examine the perceptions and actions of private households after such a disaster with regard to flood prevention. We have found that public information, communication, and education play a crucial role for improving flood prevention of private households. Furthermore, we were able to identify approaches for improved flood prevention, also in terms of spatial planning. In addition, we examined enabling factors for the implementation of flood risk reduction measures, where information and assistance from public authorities play a prominent role. Overall, the respondents expect a great amount of state support, both financially and in terms of information. Our results can help public authorities to improve their own flood prevention as well as the flood preparedness of citizens.
Urban areas in all world regions are experiencing increasing heat stress and heat-related risks. While in-depth knowledge exists in terms of the urban heat island effect and increased heat stress in cities in the context of climate change, less is known about how individual heat perceptions and experiences differ between urban forms or with different vulnerability profiles of exposed people. It is crucial to identify and assess differences within cities relating to urban form and social structure, as both need to be considered when designing adaptation plans for heat-related risks. Here, we explore linkages between urban structure types (USTs), heat stress perception and different socio-economic groups' experiences in Berlin using a household survey, statistical and earth observation data. Our approach (1) quantifies perceived heat stress across USTs, considering characteristics such as, age, income, vegetation cover and shade, (2) characterises social dimensions of USTs to enhance their application in climate adaptation and (3) benefits from the synergistic disciplinary approach of the urbisphere project with rich social and physical datasets. Although heat stress exposure is higher in the inner-city ring, we find that a higher percentage of vulnerable groups in the outer city (6 to 18 km from the city centre), where 78 % of Berlin's elderly live. We underscore the need for attention in future adaptation plans based on the USTs, human vulnerability profile and adaptive capacities. For example, in densely spaced building blocks 67 % of respondents perceived high heat stress and fractions of vegetation and shade are comparatively very low. The method and findings can inform future adaptation strategies of other cities to consider different profiles of vulnerability and adaptive capacities within and between USTs.
The Stuttgart region in southwest Germany already experiences heat stress and extreme precipitation events. According to German law, spatial planning at the municipal and regional levels has an important role in adapting to such events. However, this is a challenge to achieve alongside other demands on land use. One important resource to support adaptive planning is spatial risk analyses, which can provide justification for prioritising adaptation and information about where and how to prioritise different measures. Such maps should not just consider information on the nature of the hazards but also on the vulnerability of people and exposed areas. While in theory this has been recognised and vulnerability analysis methods have been developed, there is a significant gap in linking this research to planning practice in the German context. In this paper, we use a GIS-based method for mapping quantitative indicators of social vulnerability to heat and pluvial flooding for the region of Stuttgart. We share insights from the process of developing these maps based on the needs of spatial planning and discuss how such information can be used in planning practice. We propose solutions regarding issues such as spatial resolution, indicator selection, aggregation, and complexity; report initial feedback from planners; and make recommendations for further bridging the gap between risk and vulnerability research and planning practice.
The flood disaster of July 2021 claimed the lives of more than 220 people in western and central Europe - particularly severely affected was the Ahr Valley in Germany, where the floods caused at least 135 fatalities, damaged and destroyed more than 9000 buildings, and caused billions of euros in damage. To prevent such a disaster from happening again, it is crucial not only to simply rebuild, but also to build up in a way that strengthens resilience to future events. Since time and money are often critical issues in the reconstruction process, it is important to focus on the most vulnerable groups as well as critical and sensitive infrastructures, as these need particular attention and support for risk reduction and resilience building within the recovery process. This paper systematizes how critical and sensitive infrastructures are defined and explores how the flood risk that a sensitive infrastructure is facing can be determined by an easy-to-use framework for qualitative risk assessment. This assessment can be used as a basis for deciding between on-site (re)construction and resettlement, as well as the protective measures to be taken. A detailed application of the framework assessment is carried out with regard to a school for children with disabilities that is located directly at the river Ahr.
ABSTRACT In summer 2021, heavy precipitation caused major flooding in central Europe, affecting areas in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. The Ahr Valley in Germany was one of the most adversely affected areas, with more than 135 deaths and major destruction within a 50 km path along the Ahr. The federal government of Germany and the federal states affected established a reconstruction fund of 30 billion euros. The recovery and reconstruction process is still ongoing. Much attention has been given to the analysis of the flood disaster; however, this paper explores and documents how selected scientific recommendations developed within a transdisciplinary project (called KAHR) have influenced decisions within the reconstruction process in terms of strengthening climate‐resilient recovery. We assess factors that increased the uptake and impact of selected scientific recommendations as well as factors that hindered the uptake. We find, for example, that the urgency for rebuilding large parts of the Ahr Valley and the fact that policy processes were open for scientific inputs increased the uptake and impact. Also, the transdisciplinary nature of the KAHR project helped in translating science into practice. In contrast, time pressure to reconstruct rapidly, uncertainties of what is going to be financed by the reconstruction fund, and existing zoning and building regulations hindered the uptake of selected scientific recommendations toward resilience building. Finally, we argue that science needs a formal role in post‐disaster reconstruction processes in order to strengthen resilience, as this allows the latest scientific findings to be incorporated to support resilient reconstruction and allows for a more neutral perspective in discussions and decisions.
Heat stress has been recognised among the key priorities in guiding future climate change adaptation planning. Given the cities’ diverse vulnerability profiles, heat adaptation measures need to be tailored to address the needs of different socio-economic groups and urban settings (IPCC 2022, EEA 2023). To adequately explore this, within the framework of the urbisphere project (coupling dynamic cities and climate) we conducted household surveys in the cities of Stuttgart and Berlin with more than 560 household responses from each city. Both cities have faced an increasing number of hot days and tropical nights in recent years. We explore patterns in perceived heat stress and adaptation options across the two cities through a survey-based analysis while linking the results with different Urban Structure Types (USTs). The questionnaire covers a range of factors, including risk perception and risk awareness, availability of and access to green spaces, and heat adaptation measures employed by residents. By analysing the households’ experience of heat stress and adaptation options in selected areas of the cities and within different USTs, we highlight correlations between building typologies, social structures and perceived heat that influence practical adaptation options in Berlin and Stuttgart. The results highlight that adaptation strategies to buffer heat stress, such as access to shaded green spaces, vary across different socio-economic groups and USTs. We further emphasise that in both cities existing adaptation plans for heat stress need to sufficiently account for interlinkages with human vulnerability and adaptive capacities, which are critical determinants of overall urban heat risk.
Purpose-The interaction between urban development and climate change significantly impacts local public health services. Unfortunately, cities and involved institutions often fail to prioritize and integrate spatial planning when dealing with these unprecedented future challenges. This study aims to offer Health Integrative Climate Resilience and Adaptation Future (HICRAF), an innovative planning framework that systematically operationalizes future climate risks and their impact on local public health services. Design/methodology/approach-HICRAF is developed based on the intermix of explorative and normative scenario planning approaches. Mixed methods of quantitative and qualitative techniques were applied to develop and operationalize the local climate adaptation scenarios through stakeholder participation. The framework demonstrates how different methods and scales (spatial and temporal) can be linked to exhibit climate risk outcomes of different future pathways. Findings-The practicality of HICRAF was demonstrated in Khon Kaen city, where it bridged the gaps between global climate trajectories and local climate adaptation scenarios. It also highlights the need to consider intertwining spatial and systemic risks in local infrastructure operations. Although HICRAF has gained political buy-in and fostered the establishment of stakeholder discourse on climate-resilient futures, further research is needed to enhance its robustness and replicability. Originality/value-This paper proposes a novel planning framework, HICRAF, that can systematically operationalize the future challenges of unprecedented climate change and urban development changes for the local public health service. The demonstration of HICRAF in Khon Kaen city provides empirical evidence of its implement ability and upscaling potential.
For next-generation weather and climate numerical models to resolve cities, both higher spatial resolution and subgrid parameterizations of urban canopy-atmosphere processes are required. The key is to better understand intraurban variability and urban-rural differences in atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics. This includes upwind-downwind effects due to cities' influences on the atmosphere beyond their boundaries. To address these aspects, a network of >25 ground-based remote sensing sites was designed for the Berlin region (Germany), considering city form, function, and typical weather conditions. This allows investigation of how different urban densities and human activities impact ABL dynamics. As part of the interdisciplinary European Research Council Grant urbisphere, the network was operated from autumn 2021 to autumn 2022. Here, we provide an overview of the scientific aims, campaign setup, and results from 2 days, highlighting multiscale urban impacts on the atmosphere in combination with high-resolution numerical modeling at 100-m grid spacing. During a spring day, the analyses show systematic upwind-city-downwind effects in ABL heights, largely driven by urban-rural differences in surface heat fluxes. During a heatwave day, ABL height is remarkably deep, yet spatial differences in ABL heights are less pronounced due to regionally dry soil conditions, resulting in similar observed surface heat fluxes. Our modeling results provide further insights into ABL characteristics not resolved by the observation network, highlighting synergies between both approaches. Our data and findings will support modeling to help deliver services to a wider community from citizens to those managing health, energy, transport, land use, and other city infrastructure and operations. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: A yearlong field campaign with a dense and systematic network of sites provides comprehensive measurements of the atmospheric boundary layer to gain deep knowledge of urban-rural and intraurban variability of surface-atmosphere exchanges. Understanding these is of high relevance for developing next-generation numerical weather prediction and climate models. We showcase the campaign and highlight synergies between ground-based and satellite observations and high-resolution numerical weather prediction modeling on two example days. Our findings show multiscale interactions between city and atmosphere, including urban-induced effects beyond the city's boundaries ("urban plume") and urban impacts under heatwave conditions. These results are important for developing dynamic modeling frameworks, which will help in delivering services to make cities more resilient.
Abstract. The flood disaster of July 2021 claimed the lives of more than 220 people in Western and Central Europe – particularly severely affected was the Ahr Valley in Germany, where the floods caused at least 135 fatalities, damaged and destroyed more than 9,000 buildings, and caused billions of euros in damage. To prevent such a disaster from happening again, it is crucial not to simply rebuild, but to build up in a way that strengthens resilience to future events. Since time and money are often critical issues in the reconstruction process, it is important to focus on most vulnerable groups as well as critical and sensitive infrastructures, as these need particular attention and support for risk reduction and resilience building within the recovery process. The paper systematizes how critical and sensitive infrastructures are defined. It explores – based on the Ahr Valley flood disaster – how sensitive infrastructures can be identified and how they are treated and discussed in the recovery process. In addition, an easy-to-use framework for risk assessment and the subsequent selection of necessary measures is being developed. A detailed application of the framework assessment is carried out with regard to a school for children with disabilities that is located directly at the river Ahr.
Managed retreat, a key strategy in climate change adaptation for areas with high hazard exposure, raises concerns due to its disruptive nature, vulnerability issues and overall risk in the new location. On-site upgrading or near-site resettlement is seen as more appropriate and effective compared to a relocation far from the former place of living. However, these conclusions often refer to only a very limited set of empirical case studies or do not sufficiently consider different context conditions and phases in resettlement. Against this background, this paper examines the conditions and factors contributing to community resilience of different resettlement projects in Metro Manila. In this urban agglomeration reside an estimated 500 000 informal households, with more than 100 000 occupying high-risk areas. In light of the already realized and anticipated climate change effects, this precarious living situation exposes families, already socio-economically vulnerable, to an increased risk of flooding. The response of the Philippine government to the vexing problem of informal dwellers has been large-scale resettlement from coasts, rivers and creeks to state-owned sites at urban fringes. However, only very few resettlement projects could be realized as in-city projects close to the original living space. The study employs a sequential mixed-method approach, integrating a large-scale quantitative household survey and focus group discussions (FGDs) for a robust comparison of resettlement types. Further, it reveals community-defined enabling factors for managed retreat as climate change adaptation strategy. Results indicate minor variations in well-being conditions between in-city and off-city resettlement, challenging the expected impact of a more urban setting on resilience. Instead, essential prerequisites for resettlement involve reduced hazard exposure, secure tenure and safety from crime. Beyond these essential conditions, social cohesion and institutional support systems emerge as significant influencers for the successful establishment of well-functioning new settlements. With this findings, the study contributes to the expanding body of literature on managed retreat, offering a comprehensive evaluation based on extensive datasets and providing entry points for the improvement of retreat as a climate change adaptation strategy.