Global energy crisis and climate change have caused widespread concern about the development of the biomass energy industry. China has committed to exploring feasible policies to promote the development of the biomass energy industry. To analyze the impact of China’s energy tax subsidy policy (ETS) on the development of densified biomass fuel (DBF) industry, this study constructs a partial equilibrium model of the densified biomass fuel industry sector to quantitatively evaluate and optimize the effect of China’s current ETS policy based on the compilation of input–output table for the biomass energy industry sector in China. The results indicate that 1) under the current policy scenario, the price of DBF in China decreased by 15.05%, the supply increased by 40.75%, and the demand increased by 18.62%, while the price of raw biomass (RB) decreased by 14.75%, the supply increased by 42.44%, and the demand increased by 29.41%, and the revenue of enterprises increased by 20.42%. However, compared to China’s 13th Five-Year Plan national DBF development target, there is still a supply and demand gap of 16,560,549 tons. 2) under the optimized policy scenario premised on accomplishing the Chinese government’s DBF development goals, the price of DBF in China decreased by 6.9%, supply increased by 128.5%, and demand increased by 44.5%, while the price of raw biomass decreased by 7.84%, supply increased by 133.34%, demand increased by 45.71%, and corporate earnings rose by 112.1% but required the government to pay extremely high tax benefits and financial subsidies for this, which is not feasible in actual economic operation. Therefore, to support the sustainable development of the DBF industry, relevant departments should not only set the mandatory total target but also pursue production quality and market construction.

从生物质能源电价补贴政策视角出发,构建了政府、企业、中间人和农户为一体的农林生物质发电产业系统动力学模型,通过模拟、对比不同补贴政策组合下的实施效果,对现行补贴政策进行量化评价.结果表明:现行补贴额度无法扭转发电企业亏损状态,且现行的直接退出机制将导致企业出现更为严重的亏损,而适当调整补贴额度并实行逐减退出方式可提高各主体及产业整体利润.因此,为了促进中国农林生物质发电产业的快速发展,就要保障生物质补贴资金优先及时发放,同时推进可再生能源配额制度和绿证交易制度建设,以促进产业快速良序发展,实现生物质资源充分利用.