The evaluation of associated credit risk in supply chain is a difficult problem in the current credit risk management practice. Based on graph theory and fuzzy preference theory, we put forward a new evaluation method of associated credit risk in the supply chain. First, the credit risk of enterprises in supply chain are divided into “self-own credit risk” and “credit risk contagion”. Second, the indicator system of self-own credit risk evaluation of enterprises in the supply chain is designed, and the fuzzy comparative judgment matrix of self-own credit risk evaluation indicator is obtained by using fuzzy preference relation, and the evaluation basic model of “self-own credit risk” is established. On the basis, the evaluation derivative model of “credit risk contagion” is established. Furthermore, by integrating the two kinds of evaluation results, the credit risk of enterprises in supply chain is evaluated comprehensively, and the contagion effect of associated credit risk in supply chain based on trade credit risk contagion (TCRC) is revealed.

Associate credit risk is a kind of credit risk among the associated credit enterprises formed by credit-related enterprises. Based on the mean field theory of complex network and the classical model Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) of risk propagation dynamics, this paper explores the influence mechanism of the influence of corporate senior executives' alertness promoted by risk information on the contagion of associated credit risk. The results show that the corporate senior executives' alertness does not change the contagion threshold of associated credit risk. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

关联信用风险及其传染是现代信用风险管理的热点和难点问题.本文基于复杂网络的平均场理论,运用传染病模型刻画关联信用个体之间关联信用风险的传染机制;并考虑潜伏期和感染期均具传染性的双重传播路径,分析了网络中关联信用风险传染的稳定状态;进一步,在一般关联信用个体网络环境中,探讨了关联信用风险传染的影响因素对稳定状态的影响.研究表明:关联信用风险传染的临界值和网络结构有关,与潜伏期和感染期呈反向变化,与潜伏个体和感染个体的相互转化率呈同向变化,与潜伏期传染率和感染期传染率呈同向变化;稳定状态时潜伏个体密度与潜伏期和传染率呈同向变化,与感染期呈反向变化;稳定状态时感染个体密度与感染期和传染率呈同向变化,与潜伏期呈反向变化.本文的研究丰富了信用风险的研究范畴,为企业和银行等信用个体管控信用风险提供了新的视角.

Interpersonal relationship is an important factor affecting the contagion of associated credit risk among enterprises in supply chain.Based on the combination financing channels of bank credit and trade credit, this paper considers the interpersonal relationship between managers in supply chain enterprises, on the basis of revealing the contagion mechanism of associated credit risk in the supply chain under interpersonal relationship and constructing the contagion intensity model, we analyze the influence of interpersonal relationship on the contagion effect of associated credit risk in the supply chain.Combined with the simulation analysis, it is found that interpersonal relationship negatively affects the contagion intensity of associated credit risks in the supply chain, and the level of trade credit and the loan-to-demand ratio of commercial bank negatively regulate the influence of interpersonal relationship on the internal and external financing costs of enterprises in the supply chain.

Under the current situation of complexity and uncertainty of public health risks, the elderly in nursing homes are at the highest risk of being infected.For the research of pension institution of emergent public health risk prevention strategy, this paper constructs the Long-term Care Facilities based on prospect theory of emergent public health risk behavior decision model, analyses the pension agency care personnel and managerial risk behavior strategy, reveals the risk management cost and risk loss and external supervision of pension agency care staff and managers risk behavior decision-making.The study of this paper has important theoretical and practical significance for the prevention and control of novel Coronavirus pneumonia and other emergent public health risks in pension institutions.

Based on the SIRS epidemic model embedded in complex network theory and the COVID-19 spreading characteristics, the influence of prevention & control and treatment on the ontagion of COVID-19 and the stability of social network is analyzed separately in this paper. The results show that the contagion of COVID-19 leads to the risk stability of social network. The number of infected persons is decreased by prevention & control and treatment which drives social network to risk-free stability. The treatment is more effective than prevention & control against COVID-19. Compared with prevention & control, treatment can make social network more risk-free and stable faster.

Associated credit risk is a kind of credit risk among the associated credit entities formed by credit-related entities. Focusing on this hot topic of associated credit risk and the relevant contagion and considering the latent entities and their incubatory period, this paper builds an infectious dynamic model to describe the associated credit risk contagion of associated credit entities based on the mean-field theory of complex networks. Firstly, this paper analyzes the stable state of the associated credit risk contagion in the associated entity network, considering the latent entities and their incubatory period. Secondly, from the perspective of complex network and considering the incubatory period, a SHIS model is built to reveal how the incubatory period influences associated credit risk contagion. Finally, the sensitivity of some parameters is analyzed in the Barabási–Albert (BA) scale-free network. The results show the following: (i) the contagion threshold of associated credit risk is related to the incubatory period of latent entities, the recovery rate and infectivity of infected entities, and the newborn rate of credit entities; (ii) the infectious rate of infected entities, the mortality rate of credit entities, and the important factors stated in (i) are all significantly correlated with the density of infected entities.

关联信用风险及其传染是现代信用风险管理的热点和难点问题.本文基于复杂网络的平均场理论,运用传染病模型,来刻画关联主体网络中关联信用风险的传染机理;并引入潜伏主体及其潜伏期,分析了网络中关联信用风险的传染过程;进一步,在关联主体BA无标度网络中,探讨了关联信用风险特征对传染过程中稳定状态的影响.研究结果表明:潜伏主体的平均潜伏期、感染主体的传染率和恢复率及传染力、信用主体的新生率和死亡率,均会影响关联信用风险传染阈值和稳定状态时感染主体密度.

针对关联信用风险及其传染这一热点和难点问题,本文基于复杂网络异质平均场理论,运用风险传播动力学SIR经典模型,探讨风险信息促成的个体保护意识对关联信用风险传染的影响机理,并在BA无标度网络中进行数值仿真分析.研究结果表明:被感染个体数量、个体反应强度、有保护意识的易感个体比例与关联信用风险传染阈值正相关;考虑个体保护意识、增强易感个体反应强度以及提高有保护意识的易感个体比例能够有效抑制关联信用风险的传染速度和传染规模,并且能够延缓关联信用风险高峰期的到来.

基于嵌入复杂网络的传染病模型,探讨了信息双向传播和个体反应对关联信用风险传染的影响机理.研究表明:关联信用风险的传染阈值与警觉度、救助度和邻居节点数相关,且个体反应对关联信用风险的爆发具有明显的抑制作用;警觉度和救助度均是影响感染个体密度和免疫个体密度的重要因素;警觉度和救助度的强弱会影响关联信用风险的传染规模,对比分析发现“存在关联信用风险”信息对关联信用风险传染规模影响较大,而“如何有效预防关联信用风险”信息只在特定的有效传染率区间,对关联信用风险传染规模产生比较小的影响.

关联信用风险是指某些企业违约,导致与其存在关联关系的企业违约或违约可能性增大的这类信用风险.企业家的社交关系会影响企业之间关联信用风险的传染效应.本文利用双层网络刻画企业家和企业所形成的耦合网络,分析企业家的社交关系对关联信用风险传染的影响路径,构建双层网络中关联信用风险的传染模型,并考察企业家社交网络和双层网络的结构等因素对关联信用风险传染效应的影响.研究结果表明:企业家的社交关系是影响关联信用风险传染的重要因素;企业家社交-企业关联双层网络的拓扑结构也会影响关联信用风险的传染效应;提高双层网络的相似度,可以抑制关联信用风险在关联企业网络中的传染.本文的研究进一步拓展了信用风险的研究视角,为银行等金融机构对信用风险的提供科学的决策依据.

In the current complex and uncertainty of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, the elderly in the long-term care facilities are at the highest risk of being affected by COVID-19. There is still uncertain relationship between the identification of this risk and the care management, caring behavior, cannot achieve management optimization. Matrix analysis the change relation between the conditions for the COVID-19 risk identification and risk behavior. The results show that there are N equilibrium points for the risk management of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities. The complexity of the risk of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities and the cognitive deviations caused by the limited rationality of managers and caregivers make the COVID-19, the risk early warning system is not easy to converge to a stable point in the real environment, so as to achieve the best management status of the COVID-19 risk in long-term care facilities. Nursing staff behavior, risk management cost, risk loss and other parameters have different risk management effects for the COVID-19. When the selected parameter is adjusted through the threshold, reflects the stability and selection tendency of the COVID-19 risk management strategy. Promote institutional managers and caregivers to adopt active risk management strategies: Strengthen the awareness of institutional managers and caregivers about the complexity and uncertainty of risks; Optimize the COVID-19 risk management system, process and procedures; Strengthen the research on risk accidents, serious consequences and effective prevention of COVID-19; Strengthen the review and supervision of the risk management of COVID-19 and improve its value perception of the effective prevention of the risk of COVID-19.

Background: With developing nursing ethics education, the traditional methods of teaching could not meet the learning needs of undergraduates. Improving ethical decision-making to undergraduates is necessary toward promoting nursing ethics. Objective: The aim of study is to compare the effect of inquiry-oriented teaching and lecture-based approach on nursing ethics education for undergraduates. Design: A quasi-experimental study was conducted for undergraduate nursing students. Settings: Two nursing schools participated in the study in mainland China. Participants: A total of 97 undergraduate nursing students participated in the study. Methods: The study adopted a quasi-experimental design. Results: The inquiry-oriented teaching group was significantly higher on average scoring than the lecture-based group after intervention in 2 aspects including: professional relationship (P = 0.015) and ethical decision making (P = 0.021). Contrarily, this study also showed that in the lecture-based group the score of foundational theories of nursing ethics was higher than Inquiry-oriented group (P = 0.038). A statistically significant difference was not found between the two groups in 3 scenarios: ethics related to nursing practice, ethics related to nursing research and necessity of learning nursing ethics. Conclusion: Combination of inquiry-oriented teaching and lecture-based approach is suggested as part of design for curriculum of nursing ethics education.

We take the supply chain with a supplier and a retailer as the research objects and study the contagion and spillover effect of the associated credit risk in the supply chain under the scenario of the buy-back guarantee contract. The associated credit risk in the supply chain refers to the phenomenon that the credit default of the retailer causes the credit default of the supplier or increases the probability of default. The buy-back guarantee in the supply chain refers to the assumption by the retailer of the supplier's buy-back contract as a financing mechanism. At present, the buy-back guarantee has become a new channel of contagion for the associated credit risk in the supply chain. Under the dual Stackelberg game analysis framework of the lending institutions, suppliers, and retailers, this paper clarifies the contagion mechanism of associated credit risk in the supply chain under the condition of the buy-back guarantee and constructs mathematical models to explore the contagion and spillover effect of the associated credit risk in the supply chain. The results show that, under the condition of the buy-back guarantee, the contagion effect of the associated credit risk in the supply chain has trigger thresholds, and the probability of triggering the contagion effect is related to the retailer's order quantity, supplier's wholesale price, and product's market price. The contagion effect is positively affected by the buy-back rate, production costs, and loan interest rates and negatively affected by the product's market price. In contrast, the degree of buy-back guarantee aggravates the negative spillover effect of the associated credit risk and raises the risk level of lending institutions.

在当前复杂的社会经济环境中,关联信用风险是当前社会经济面临的重大风险,个人信用风险是我国信用体系建设的重要方面.鉴于关联信用风险与个人信用风险均具有典型的复杂信用风险特征,研究人员依托于国家自然科学基金及四川省科技支撑项目针对上述两类复杂环境中的信用风险度量问题展开了深入和系统的研究,取得的部分研究成果归纳如下:①构建了基于复杂环境中不同关联方式的关联信用风险度量模型;②运用图论和流行病学相关理论,构建了复杂环境中的关联信用风险动态传染模型;③利用复杂网络理论,厘清了关联信用风险的传染机理与演化特征;④应用行为科学理论,研究了公司管理层行为因素对企业信用风险的影响;⑤构建了个人信用风险评估模型;⑥应用仿真技术,揭示了复杂环境中信用卡用户信用风险的行为影响因素;⑦在新个贷背景下,探索了个人信用风险评估方法.

Based on the epidemic model and complex network theory, this paper discusses the impact mechanism of risk information spreading and its lag on the associated credit risk contagion. The results of the study show that the lag of risk information do not affect the stability of risk equilibrium. Moreover, under the condition of risk stability, the density of susceptible individuals with protective awareness, the density of the infected individuals and the cumulative density of risk awareness are independent of the network structure, but are influenced by these 9 parameters such as the recovery rate of the infected individuals and the effective transmission rate of the risk information. Furthermore, the density of protected conscious susceptible individuals and the density of the infected individuals decrease with the increase of the risk awareness transmission efficiency and the effective transmission rate of risk awareness.

随着经济的全球化和金融市场的快速发展,越来越多的企业、金融机构、政府等信用主体之间存在复杂的关联关系.关联信用风险在关联关系的传导作用下,不断地被复制与传染,危害到市场经济的健康发展乃至整个社会的稳定,关联信用风险已经成为信用风险管理领域内的热点问题.本文结合传染病模型和复杂网络理论,探讨了风险信息传播对关联信用风险传染的影响.研究表明:关联信用风险染强度的阈值与整体和局部风险信息的传播效率均无关,但与关联个体网络结构和感染个体的恢复率有关;当关联信用风险传染趋于稳定时,感染个体的密度与整体和局部风险信息的传播效率均存在显著关系,且相较于整体风险信息,感染个体的密度对局部风险信息更加敏感.

结合传染病模型和复杂网络理论,探讨了风险信息和个体反应对关联信用风险传染的影响机理.研究表明:个体反应在风险信息对关联信用风险传染的影响过程中起中介作用;关联信用风险传染强度的阈值与真实和虚假风险信息的传播效率均无关,但与关联个体网络结构和感染个体恢复率有关;当关联信用风险传染稳定时,感染个体的密度与真实和虚假风险信息的传播效率均存在显著关系,且感染个体的密度对真实和虚假风险信息的敏感性相当.

Using the data of Chinese listed companies for 2011-2016 years, on the basis of defining enterprise groups, the relationship between enterprise group, cash holding and credit risk is studied from the perspective of the property property of the final controller of the enterprise group. The research shows that: first, compared with independent companies, the cash holding level of the listed companies belonging to the enterprise group is lower, and the cash holding of the listed companies of the private control group is lower than that of the listed companies of the state-owned control group; secondly, the level of cash holding and the credit wind at the public company level In the end, the negative relationship between cash holdings and credit risk is maintained only in private controlled enterprise groups at the enterprise group level. Besides, this paper also attempts to explore the mechanism behind the relationship between cash holding and credit risk in state-owned enterprises.

Based on KMV model, this paper empirically studies the internal relationship between groups of companies, cash holdings level and credit risk, and tentatively explores the intrinsic mechanism between cash holdings and credit risk of state-owned groups of companies. The research shows that :(1) compared with companies with independent legal persons, the cash holdings level of listed subsidiaries of groups of companies is lower, and the cash holdings level of state-owned and private groups of companies is significantly different;(2) the cash holdings level of listed companies is negatively correlated with the credit risk, but the state-owned ownership property weakens the relationship;(3) at the groups of companies level, the negative correlation between cash holdings level and credit risk is only maintained in the groups of companies with private ownership property.