We present extensions to the agent-based agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS) model that make it possible to simulate the consequences of agricultural policy reform on farmers' land use decisions and concomitant impacts on landscape mosaic, biodiversity and ecosystem services in a real agricultural region. An observed population of farms is modelled as a multi-agent system where individual farm-agent behaviour and their interactions-principally competition for land-are defined through an optimization framework with land use and landscape impacts resulting as emergent properties of the system. The model is calibrated to real data on the farms and the landscape to be studied. We illustrate the utility of the model by evaluating the potential impacts of three alternative frameworks for the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on landscape values in two marginal agricultural regions. Mosaic value was found to be sensitive to the choice of policy scheme in one of the landscapes, whereas significant trade-offs were shown to occur in terms of species richness by habitat and species composition at the landscape scale in both regions. The relationship between food production and other ecosystem services was found to be multifaceted. Thus illustrating the difficulty of achieving landscape goals in a particular region with simple or general land management rules (such as the current rules attached to CAPs direct payments). Given the scarcity of funding for conservation, the level and conditions for allocating direct payments are, potentially, of great importance for preserving landscape values in marginal agricultural regions (subject to levels of other support).

This paper challenges the uselfullness of the cluster-based development strategy to diversify and increase the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s economy, regarding the case of the country’s agro-food sector. For this it refers to insights of the Austrian Market Process Theory. It is argued that already the theoretical foundations of the cluster concept suffer from severe difficiencies, because it widely neglects the function of competition as a discovery procedure with alert entrepreuneurs as the driving force. Moreover, it ignores the knowledge requirements and limitations in a modern market economy for any outside third party to identify and promote successful industry structures. The closer examination of the implementation of the cluster development program in Kazakhstan’s agro-food sectors shows that cluster facilitation in practice turned out to be another form of social engineering and picking winners. In the light of the Austrian understanding of the market system as an entrepreneurial discovery process the paper suggestes as alternative policy option to concentrate on the establishment of a stable institutional framework for the whole economy that stimulates the entrepreneurial discoveries of profitable businesses. Yet, such an Austrian approach is politically less appealing, for it might bring no quick results due to the prevalence of conflicting informal institutions which in the short run might be difficult to change. JEL: B 53, Q 13, L 22, L 52 Кeywords: Cluster, Kazakhstan, industrial policy, institutional change.

Economies of scale and scope are often not exploited in Western agriculture. A general reason is probably that various types of transaction costs limit coordination among farmers. A more specific explanation is that coordination on land markets or machinery cooperation is difficult to achieve when farmers are heterogeneous as some kind of price differentiation is necessary for a Pareto-superior solution. This paper investigates experimentally such a coordination game with heterogeneous agents using an example inspired by agricultural land markets. The experimental findings suggest that a Pareto-optimal solution may not be found when agents are heterogeneous. The findings provide evidence for market failures and cooperation deficits as reasons for unexploited economies of scale in agriculture. Our findings are consistent with coordination failures that appear to be driven by behavioural factors such as anchoring-and-adjustment, inequity aversion, and a reverse form of winner’s curse.

The paper discusses the impact of the implementation of the EU Common Agricultural Policy on Czech agriculture with a special emphasis given to the effects resulting from the application of current direct payments system. Two approaches were applied: in an ex post analysis we address how accession have so far influenced structural changes income situation and production structure. Secondly, in an ex-ante analysis we apply the agent-based model AgriPoliS to simulate the impacts of decoupling top-ups on structural change and farm income. In the ex post analysis it has been observed that production decisions are strongly influenced by top-ups. Furthermore, the model shows that accession slows down structural change while decoupling of top-ups in 2009 will not lead to significant changes in farm restructuring nor income situation.

This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between farm exit and entry of single-holder farms (SF) in a dualistic farm structure in the Nitra region of the Slovak Republic. Our focus is on economic and noneconomic reasons for farm exit. The impact of varying both the likelihood of succession and the initial farm operator age distributions is studied. An agent-based simulation model of structural change in agriculture is applied, which brings together farm-internal and -external determinants and creates a set of endogenous adjustment reactions. We show that the stepwise introduction of direct payments of the Common Agricultural Policy in Slovakia has a strong impact on its structural development. In the short- to medium-term, the dualistic farm structure together with a specific age structure of farms still persists as a response to the policy. The phasing-in of payments persuades SF to stay and potential successors to enter. In the longer run, the initially heterogeneous farm structure becomes increasingly homogeneous toward larger SF. The prevalence of small SF in the medium- to long-term is not necessarily a given. This may lead decision makers to reconsider the role of individual farms in rural development. Dans le présent article, nous avons étudié la relation entre l'entrée en agriculture de fermes à propriétaire unique et leur sortie dans un contexte d'agriculture dualiste dans la région de Nitra, en Slovaquie. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur les raisons économiques et non économiques qui motivent la sortie. Nous avons étudié l'impact liéà la possibilité de relève et à la répartition par âge des agriculteurs. Pour évaluer le changement structurel en agriculture, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation multi-agent qui réunit les facteurs internes et externes et crée un ensemble de réactions d'adaptation endogènes. Nous avons montré que l'introduction progressive des paiements directs accordés dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune en Slovaquie a des répercussions considérables sur son développement structurel. À court et à moyen termes, l'agriculture dualiste, combinée à la structure de l'âge des exploitations agricoles, demeure une réaction à la politique en place. La mise en place progressive des paiements persuade les exploitations à propriétaire unique de demeurer dans le secteur et encourage les successeurs potentiels à y entrer. À plus long terme, la structure agricole qui était hétérogène au départ devient de plus en plus homogène et compte de plus grandes fermes à propriétaire unique. À court et à moyen termes, la prévalence de petites fermes à propriétaire unique ne va pas nécessairement de soi. Cette situation pourrait amener les décideurs à réexaminer le rôle des exploitations individuelles dans le développement rural.

The decoupling of direct payments from production represents a substantial reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to be entitled to support but only to keep land in Good Environmental and Agricultural Condition. If output declines as a result, there is concern that landscape services produced jointly with commodities will also decline. The aim of this paper is to assess the long-term effects of the 2003 reform on farm structure, landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a sample of EU regions. Impacts are quantified using a spatial agent-based modelling approach by simulating agricultural development with links to indicators of landscape value. Our results demonstrate that eliminating the link between support payments and production has possible negative consequences for the landscape, but only under particular circumstances. It is shown that these effects could be offset by strengthening (Pillar II) agri-environmental schemes. Further the single payment scheme results in higher land rental prices which reduces its ability to achieve its goal of providing income security for farmers. Implications of these results for the direction of continued CAP reform are discussed.

This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between farm exit and entry of single‐holder farms (SF) in a dualistic farm structure in the Nitra region of the Slovak Republic. Our focus is on economic and noneconomic reasons for farm exit. The impact of varying both the likelihood of succession and the initial farm operator age distributions is studied. An agent‐based simulation model of structural change in agriculture is applied, which brings together farm‐internal and ‐external determinants and creates a set of endogenous adjustment reactions. We show that the stepwise introduction of direct payments of the Common Agricultural Policy in Slovakia has a strong impact on its structural development. In the short‐ to medium‐term, the dualistic farm structure together with a specific age structure of farms still persists as a response to the policy. The phasing‐in of payments persuades SF to stay and potential successors to enter. In the longer run, the initially heterogeneous farm structure becomes increasingly homogeneous toward larger SF. The prevalence of small SF in the medium‐ to long‐term is not necessarily a given. This may lead decision makers to reconsider the role of individual farms in rural development. Dans le présent article, nous avons étudié la relation entre l'entrée en agriculture de fermes à propriétaire unique et leur sortie dans un contexte d'agriculture dualiste dans la région de Nitra, en Slovaquie. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur les raisons économiques et non économiques qui motivent la sortie. Nous avons étudié l'impact liéà la possibilité de relève et à la répartition par âge des agriculteurs. Pour évaluer le changement structurel en agriculture, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation multi‐agent qui réunit les facteurs internes et externes et crée un ensemble de réactions d'adaptation endogènes. Nous avons montré que l'introduction progressive des paiements directs accordés dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune en Slovaquie a des répercussions considérables sur son développement structurel. À court et à moyen termes, l'agriculture dualiste, combinée à la structure de l'âge des exploitations agricoles, demeure une réaction à la politique en place. La mise en place progressive des paiements persuade les exploitations à propriétaire unique de demeurer dans le secteur et encourage les successeurs potentiels à y entrer. À plus long terme, la structure agricole qui était hétérogène au départ devient de plus en plus homogène et compte de plus grandes fermes à propriétaire unique. À court et à moyen termes, la prévalence de petites fermes à propriétaire unique ne va pas nécessairement de soi. Cette situation pourrait amener les décideurs à réexaminer le rôle des exploitations individuelles dans le développement rural.

Due to Germany’s specific farm structure, the progressive modulation of direct payments decided within the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is of particular relevance for German agriculture. In this paper we apply the agent-based model AgriPoliS to shed some light on the structural effects of a progressive modulation as evoked in the Health Check (HC) proposal and the final agreement made in November 2008 for two German regions. Furthermore, we analyse whether a progressive modulation will allow for a continuous policy in the case of a reduced hypothetical single area payment of 150 €/ha starting in 2013. Results show that although we could observe substantial income effects in the short and long run, structural effects of the progressive modulation scheme are small but preservative. In contrast, the introduction of a reduced single area payment in 2013 would sharply increase structural change. In case the initial HC proposal is followed by a single area payment the previously observed policy effects would diminish for very large (above € 300,000 premium) and small farms (below € 100,000 premium). Still, although these effects are much less pronounced with the final HC agreement, the progressive modulation would provide farmers with wrong signals, as it is most likely that future reforms will be characterized by less support and thus require a stronger market orientation of farms.

This paper explores the impacts of modulation as suggested by the EU Commission (“Preparing for the “Health Check” of the CAP reform”, 2007). The agent-based model AgriPoliS has been adapted to the case study region Ostprignitz-Ruppin (Brandenburg, Germany). Impacts on farm structures, regional production and the distribution of profits throughout farms are investigated, as well as impacts of the transfer of money coming from modulation to a second pillar measure widely spread in the case study region. The relative gains or losses of farms depending on their modulation groups are documented and potential expectations on such policies discussed.

Land markets play a crucial role in agricultural structural change. The dynamics on land markets mainly depend on the interactions between individual farms. Agent-based modelling (ABM) provides one way to take the specific characteristics of land transactions into account, as it allows to model interactions between different agents as well as spatial relationships in a straightforward manner. However, reviewing the literature one can find only a few attempts of endogenized land markets in ABM. Furthermore, it seems that the allocation mechanisms of these endogenized land markets are chosen rather arbitrarily and not much attention is given to an intensive discussion of the impact of the respective allocation mechanisms to simulation results. To close this gap the aim of this paper is threefold: First we want to give a brief review of existing ABM with endogenized land allocation mechanisms and we identify a theoretical framework which serves as a guidance to develop a suitable and extendable land market (sub-) model. Second, we derive a number of relevant design considerations necessary to endogenize land transactions in an agent based modelling framework. Based on this we propose three different land market implementations which are based on auction mechanisms. In order to be able to evaluate the different implementations not only in relative but also in absolute terms we furthermore propose an approach to create a global optimal allocation in terms of the resulting economic land rent. For this we use a mathematical programming approach to solve the underlying allocation problem and the concept of average shadow prices to price the allocated plots. In the third part we show the practical implications of different allocation mechanisms. This is done using the spatial and dynamic agent-based simulation model AgriPoliS as experimental laboratory. In that way we can analyse the properties of the respective allocation mechanisms in a realistic framework which is based on a detailed empirical calibration.

In this paper several decoupling options are evaluated concerning their impact on structural change especially on farm incomes and their surviving. Therefore, the agent-based model AgriPoliS was used and extended to account the income of leaving farms. This enables the comparison of future incomes of leaving and surviving farms to find out whether leaving farms are losers or not. The disaggregated analysis of farms’ household incomes showed that leaving farmers even benefit from their decision in case that enough off-farm jobs are available. Losers are farms that would have left agriculture under conditions of the Agenda 2000. After decoupling they stay in the sector and cannot increase their income as much as under Agenda conditions. Furthermore, the analysis displayed a persistence of farms in the sector despite it would have been more profitable for them to quit agriculture.

In this paper several decoupling options are evaluated concerning their impact on structural change especially on farm incomes and their surviving. Therefore, the agent-based model AgriPoliS was used and extended to account the income of leaving farms. This enables the comparison of future incomes of leaving and surviving farms to find out whether leaving farms are losers or not. The disaggregated analysis of farms’ household incomes showed that leaving farmers even benefit from their decision in case that enough off-farm jobs are available. Losers are farms that would have left agriculture under conditions of the Agenda 2000. After decoupling they stay in the sector and cannot increase their income as much as under Agenda conditions. Furthermore, the analysis displayed a persistence of farms in the sector despite it would have been more profitable for them to quit agriculture.

This paper analyses the interplay between farm adjustments on individual farms in dualistic farm structures over time using an agent-based simulation approach. In particular, explore the development of individual farms when there are off-farm work opportunities and different propensities of younger farm successors to take over the farm. Results show that despite of large numbers of individual farms leaving agriculture, the impacts on land use, production, and income are independent on different propensities to take over a farm.

This paper investigates the relationship between structural change in agriculture and a policy regime switch at the regional level. Using the agent-based spatial and dynamic simulation model AgriPoliS, we simulate structural change for two different farm structures in response to a policy change. Results show that structural adjustment differs depending on the initial structure.