ABSTRACT This study re‐examines the assumption that agricultural credit and pesticide‐intensive practices consistently stimulate growth across developing Asia. Using data from eight South and Southeast Asian economies (2002–2022), the analysis identifies a developmental threshold: the marginal productivity of financial and chemical inputs declines sharply once countries reach upper‐middle‐income status. Credit elasticity is positive in lower‐middle‐income South Asia (0.13%–0.27%) but becomes negative and statistically insignificant in upper‐middle‐income Southeast Asia. More notably, despite an average annual increase of 7% in pesticide use across the region, returns to chemical inputs become statistically insignificant and sometimes negative in more advanced agricultural systems such as Malaysia and Indonesia. These patterns show that as economies mature, the input‐intensive growth model encounters biological, regulatory, and structural limits. The findings challenge uniform policy prescriptions and support differentiated strategies: expanding credit access in capital‐constrained smallholder environments while shifting toward precision technologies and integrated pest management where chemical inputs face diminishing effectiveness. It is important to note that pesticide use serves only as a proxy for chemical‐intensive technological change and does not capture broader innovations such as mechanization, improved seed varieties, or digital tools. Overall, the results underscore that the effectiveness of credit and technology is closely tied to a country's position within the agricultural development trajectory, a nuance often obscured in aggregate regional analyses.

The role of foreign aid in economic development has long been a debated topic among scholars of developing economies. This study re-examines the relationship in Bangladesh from 1993 to 2022, employing dynamic ARDL simulations and Kernel Regularized Least Squares analysis. The findings reveal that official development assistance has minimal direct influence on economic progress, with economic growth primarily driven by capital accumulation and foreign direct investment (FDI). Impulse Response Function analysis confirms the negligible impact of aid shocks on output. Based on these results, the study recommends a strategic shift in policy away from reliance on aid and toward strengthening domestic capital formation and creating a more favorable investment climate for FDI. Additionally, improving institutional quality and implementing targeted reforms can enhance resource absorption and long-term economic growth. These insights offer valuable contributions to policy debates within aid-dependent economies.

Climate‑vulnerable economies face a persistent tension: short‑term agricultural gains from rising temperatures can undermine long‑term sustainability. This study examines that balance by analyzing how temperature shifts, investment patterns, and export performance interacted in Bangladesh from 1992 to 2020. It introduces an “adaptive mirage,” a temporal trap in which modest warming temporarily boosts export growth through short‑run adaptability while obscuring vulnerabilities created by fossil‑fuel‑intensive investment a dynamic that differs from static non‑linear models by highlighting investment‑mediated temporal decoupling. Using a two‑stage econometric strategy instrumental variables and Dynamic ARDL simulations the analysis traces how investment indirectly affects exports through temperature. The results show that moderate warming historically increased agricultural export shares, but post‑2016 investment deepened dependence on fossil‑intensive infrastructure, heightening the risk of surpassing adaptive thresholds. What initially appears beneficial thus becomes a climate trap as long‑term warming intensifies. Renewable‑energy‑oriented investments offer mitigation potential but entail short‑term adjustment costs. Overall, the findings provide a threshold‑aware perspective on resilient growth and underscore climatic feedbacks within the investment–export nexus. This graphical abstract depicts the climate–investment–export nexus in Bangladesh from 1992 to 2020 climate–investment–export nexus. On the left, symbolic icons illustrate rising temperatures, shifting investment patterns—fossil versus renewable—and agricultural export performance as the main forces shaping economic outcomes key drivers. At the center, the Adaptive Mirage Mechanism shows how moderate warming can temporarily raise agricultural exports, suggesting short‑run adaptability adaptive mirage. Yet investment has increasingly flowed into energy‑intensive infrastructure, creating an indirect pathway through temperature that obscures deeper vulnerabilities indirect pathway. Dynamic ARDL simulations indicate a post‑2016 structural shift, where growing dependence on fossil‑intensive projects raises the likelihood of crossing adaptive thresholds, reflected by the warning symbol post‑2016 shift. On the right, the thermometer icon represents a threshold‑aware dynamic framework, while the green sprout signals conditional rather than assured resilience threshold‑aware framework. The policy segment highlights the need to prioritize renewable‑oriented investment, manage short‑term adjustment costs, and avoid fossil‑fuel lock‑in policy priorities. Overall, the figure illustrates how short‑term climate‑driven gains can ultimately evolve into a climate trap without climate‑responsive, threshold‑aware policy action climate trap risk. Moderate warming has historically boosted Bangladesh's agricultural export share, a short-run advantage driven by adaptive capacity as identified by robust instrumental variable models. The post-2016 infrastructure investment surge poses a long-term threat as Dynamic ARDL simulations reveal it risks triggering sustained warming that could breach the very climatic thresholds this adaptation relies upon. A critical trade-off emerges in the green transition while renewable energy adoption directly mitigates temperature rise VAR analysis shows it imposes short-term costs by temporarily suppressing agricultural export competitiveness. The study identifies a decisive investment-climate threshold providing empirical grounds to strategically pivot international financing particularly BRI toward clean energy to secure long-term agricultural resilience. These findings crystallize a core policy dilemma navigating the tension between immediate export gains and long-term sustainability requires fully integrated strategies.

Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) aim to solve the holdup problem in international investment by granting foreign investors substantive and procedural rights. The Investor-State Dispute Settlement Clause (ISDS), is the crucial stipulation from an economic and foreign investor's viewpoint, as it provides the mechanism through which the substantive rules of BITs are enforced. A significant shift in China's foreign investment policy provides a quasi-experimental setting for investigating the causal impact of strong ISDS BITs on Chinese outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI). China has made its BITs much more investor-friendly by enhancing substantive clauses and including a far-reaching ISDS clause in new and renegotiated BITs. We use the renewal of the China-Uzbekistan BIT as the treatment within a Synthetic Control approach to isolate the importance of strong ISDS BITs for Chinese OFDI in Belt and Road Initiative countries. Our findings, robust to several sensitivity analyses, indicate that Chinese OFDI to Uzbekistan increased significantly with the ratification of the renegotiated BIT and, thus, even before other policies conducive to FDI were introduced by Uzbekistan. The results underscore the importance of strong ISDS BITs for FDI and highlight that they are an essential intermediate step in creating a firm property rights protection system.

China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants' skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.

Faced with mounting challenges in global export markets, companies and governments actively seek effective strategies to enhance the quality of export products and strengthen international competitiveness. This study investigates the crucial role of labor market integration in achieving these goals in the Chinese context. We first detail that labor market integration is linked with the quality of export products via three channels: (1) innovation efficiency, (2) production efficiency and (3) product market competition. Second, we empirically assess the theoretical links between labor market integration and export product quality using data from Chinese enterprises. We find that labor market integration has an inverted U-shaped impact on export product quality. This impact is mediated through product market competition, innovation and firm production efficiency. From a public policy perspective, our findings stress the importance of speeding up labor market integration to improve export product quality and innovation and production efficiency of firms.

Bangladesh's 2018 National Environmental Policy (NEP) was introduced to reconcile agricultural development with ecological sustainability-an urgent priority given that agriculture accounts for approximately 91 % of national land use. This study investigates the NEP's short-term effects on agricultural productivity and land-use expansion using local projection analysis, PCA-based fertilizer indices, and robust stationarity tests (ADF, PP, Zivot-Andrews) over the period 1981-2022. This timeframe ensures full climate data coverage, captures pre-and post-policy dynamics, and reflects agriculture's 11-13 % annual contribution to national GDP. The analysis reveals a policy paradox. Despite the NEP's sustainability ambitions, agricultural productivity remained statistically unchanged (all *p* > 0.1), whereas agricultural land area expanded significantly (coefficient = 0.027, *p* < 0.01 at the 4-year horizon). This expansion appears to reflect the policy's emphasis on conservation-oriented reforms; however, the precise influence of individual practices-such as agroforestry-can not be disentangled from the current dataset. These outcomes are consistent with Ecological Modernization Theory, which suggests that land-use reforms tend to be institutionally adopted more rapidly than productivity-enhancing measures. Accordingly, our findings underscore the necessity of complementary interventions to ensure that ecological goals are achieved alongside sustained yield growth in Bangladesh's agricultural sector.

Purpose-This study investigates the causal impact of pilot free trade zones (PFTZs) on Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Design/methodology/approach-The study uses the concept of ownership advantage (OA) to derive the conceptual link between PFTZs and OFDI. Using Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2022, the study employs various difference-in-difference estimators to estimate homogeneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. Findings-Assuming a homogeneous treatment effect on the treated, implementing a PFTZ spurs OFDI. However, considering heterogeneity in treatment effects over cohorts and time diminishes the evidence for a positive impact. A positive causal effect on OFDI is established only for the Shanghai (China) PFTZ. Practical implications-As China is a leading emerging economy with a state-driven development model, this study has significant implications for other developing and middle-income countries seeking to leverage PFTZs - or similar special economic zones - to stimulate OFDI. Originality/value-This study conceptually links PFTZs to OFDI through the OA framework and explicitly models heterogeneity of effects across batches of PFTZs and over time. The latter is essential, as institutional differences across PFTZs may result in varying degrees of generation and overseas exploitation of OAs.

Brazil has recently adopted a novel approach in investment protection, the Agreements on Cooperation and Facilitation of Investment (ACFIs) which aim inter alia at promoting Brazil's rising outward FDI. Motivated by claims that ACFIs will not achieve this goal - while otherwise tying the hands of policy makers - we use data over the years 2001 to 2022 and apply a Synthetic Control approach to study whether outward Foreign Direct Investment Stock of Brazil in Mexico is spurred by the ratification of the Mexico-Brazil ACFI. The concerns about ACFIs cannot be dismissed as our evidence shows that the ACFI does not promote outward foreign direct investment (FDI), at least for the post-treatment years used in our analysis. The absence of an impact is most likely driven by the omission of substantive provisions and, most notably, of Investor-State Dispute Settlement, which would address the hold-up problem in international investment.

Cyprinoids are important for food security in China, and information about the degree of integration of the markets for cyprinoids is valuable to Chinese policy makers in their attempt to regulate the fisheries and aquaculture industry. This study investigates horizontal and vertical market integration of three species of carps (grass, common and silver) at two stages of the value chain (ex-farm and retail). The study implements a Vector-Error-Correction model, and it uses monthly data ranging from 2015 to 2019. The study shows that with the exception of the markets for common and grass carps at the retail stage, markets are, at best, partially integrated. Horizontally, only the common and the grass carps show significant price transmission. At both value chain stages, the price relationship is bidirectional, and no clear-cut market leadership exists. Vertically, the price relationship is also bidirectional for the common and the grass carp, but the silver carp shows no significant market integration across the value chain.

Croakers are an economically important fish species in Nigeria. Croakers are harvested by artisanal and industrial fisheries, providing a significant source of income and livelihood for coastal communities. Yet, human activities pose a significant threat to the survival of croakers in Nigeria. This study aims to evaluate the sustainability of croakers in the coastal waters of Lagos, Nigeria. The study also examines stakeholders' perceptions of EcosystemBased Fisheries Management (EBFM) as a tool for sustainable fisheries management in Nigeria. Questionnaires are used to collect data, and the Multidimensional Scaling Tool "Rapfish" is used to assess the sustainability level of croakers in three study areas. The results indicate that stakeholders have a positive attitude toward implementing EBFM. The sustainability analysis indicates degrees of sustainability of croakers at the boundary of being "less sustainable". Specifically, the sustainability scores along the five dimensions analyzed are Ecological sustainability (55.69 %), economic (56.35 %), ethical (54.02 %), social (42.31 %), and technological sustainability (57.51 %). Based on these findings, the study derives several policy recommendations to improve the sustainability of croakers in Nigeria.

Innovation is a driver of economic growth, and a substantial body of research shows that capital market development is conducive for firm innovation. Yet, for China, the world's second largest economy with an impressive economic growth record, the empirical evidence linking capital market integration and firm innovation is limited. This paper shows theoretically and investigates empirically the association between capital market integration and firm innovation across Chinese provinces. The paper uses data on about 983,100 Chinese firms ranging from 1998 to 2015. We find that capital market integration has a positive effect on firm innovation. The positive effect works via a reduction in financial constraints and via the reduction of capital misallocation across provinces. The paper also unveils heterogeneity of the effect across regions, industries, and firm ownership structures. Given the still substantial capital market segmentation in China, and given that China is entering the stage of high-quality economic development based on innovation, the findings signal to policy makers the importance of speeding-up the process of capital market integration via capital market liberalization.

Brazil, after signing several traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties without ratifying them, recently shifted towards a different type of bilateral investment agreement, i.e., Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements. Two claims have been made in the literature regarding the transition from traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties to Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements—Claim #1: The non-ratification of the traditional BITs has not harmed Foreign Direct Investment into Brazil, a claim which puts into question the purpose of Bilateral Investment Treaties. Claim #2: While Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements avoid some of the problems of traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties, on balance they are less effective than traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties would have been. We examine the two claims from an empirical economic point of view. We build on the literature about Brazil’s position vis-à-vis Bilateral Investment Treaties, which must be viewed by an amalgamation of (i) a historical legacy; (ii) domestic initiatives, and (iii) a particular U-turn in the political debate. Using empirical evidence on Foreign Direct Investment effects of Bilateral Investment Treaties, the following conclusions emerge: With regard to claim #1, empirical evidence in general as well as specific to Brazil suggests that Brazil has forgone Foreign Direct Investment by not ratifying traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties. Concerning claim #2, while Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements include alternative dispute settlement mechanisms, which aim at a better compliance of states with the Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements’ rules, rather than the compensation of foreign investors, the lower stringency of the State–State dispute settlement mechanism compared to Investor–State dispute settlement mechanism makes Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements less effective. Yet, this weakening effect must be weighed against the effects on Foreign Direct Investment from innovative clauses in Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Agreements, which are absent in many traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties.

Fish products comprise more than 20% of total Ecuadorian exports. Ecuador introduced the "National Green Export Review" (NGER) in 2015, which aims at making Ecuador's fishing industry more sustainable to improve the international market access to Ecuador's fish products. Has this policy achieved its goal? In order to answer this question, this article applies the local projection approach to explore the dynamic impact of the NGER on Ecuador's share of fish exports in the world fish market. Contrary to expectations, the results are consistent with the view that the NGER does not enhance Ecuador's competitiveness. The NGER is also not able to compensate for the fall in Ecuador's share in the world fish market, which has been induced by a change in consumer preferences for tuna and shrimp, Ecuador's main fish products. The concluding section of the paper provides policy advice on how to make the NGER more effective in achieving its goal.

How does the participation of foreign investors on local bond markets impact the volatility of bond prices and yields? An answer to this question is important for policy makers from emerging markets in their attempts to liberalize access to financial markets. However, empirical literature gives inconclusive answers to this question. Reasons are that studies analyze diverse types of bonds and apply their analyses to different samples of countries and for different phases in the opening up of markets. We add to existing knowledge by empirically investigating the impact of foreign investors' participation on the volatility of prices of two types of Chinese bonds, government bonds and policy bank bonds, as well as for three stages in the liberalization of the Chinese bond market. We find that foreign investors' participation does not exert significant effects on volatility until late in the opening of the bond market. In addition, we uncover that those bonds which are more influenced by government policies, policy bank bonds, are also more strongly affected by international capital flows. From a policy perspective, our results emphasize the importance of increasing the openness of China's local currency bond market, of stabilizing foreign investors' expectations and, in turn, international capital flows.

A longstanding concern has been the proposition that the international investment treaty system lacks reform. Governments forgo Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and thus forgo a driver of economic growth, employment and innovation. We assess the validity of this concern in the context of a major home and host country for global foreign direct investment, China, and the major reform of its Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs). Besides other innovations, the so-called 'third-generation' BITs of China introduce a strong dispute resolution mechanism, which makes Chinese BITs more investor-friendly. Our evidence suggests that more investor-friendly BITs exert a positive impact on FDI in China. We argue that the positive impact of reforming BITs in a country like China, which offers a high degree of stability of the legal and political system and a strong culture of informal dispute resolution, points towards the relevance of the enforceability of property rights for investments.

The stock of robots used in industrial production in the OECD more than doubled over the last two decades. Empirically, the direction of the association between automation and (un-)employment varies across countries. Which factors explain this cross-country variation? We argue that differences in collective bargaining systems play a role. We structure the collective bargaining systems of 37 OECD and EU countries by the degree of coordination of their collective bargaining on the one hand, and by the strength of labor unions on the other hand. These results in four types of collective bargaining systems: highly coordinated with strong unions; highly coordinated with weak unions; weakly coordinated with strong unions and weakly coordinated with weak unions. We use a dynamic panel data approach to investigate whether the association between increased automation and the unemployment rates of different societal groups differs across collective bargaining systems. Our findings are consistent with the view that increased automation is positively associated with unemployment in countries where collective bargaining is weak. In coordinated systems the association is muted, notably for workers with medium skill levels, that is, for the group of workers which is frequently seen to be especially prone to be "automated away". We cannot unveil indications of insider-outsider behavior of labor unions.

This paper develops and uses a system synergy evaluation index which combines the Fisheries industry “outcome subsystem” with its “factors flow subsystem”. The index measures the degree of synergy of these two subsystems of the Chinese Fisheries industry at the provincial level. The index is used in an empirical analysis that aims at modeling the economic development, measured as gross value-added, of the Chinese Fisheries industries in 29 Chinese provinces. Specifically, based on a dynamic panel data model, the econometric part of the paper investigates whether an improved synergy between the subsystems can spur gross value-added per worker of the Fisheries industry. From a policy perspective, the study aims at assisting policy makers in their attempt to empower a high-quality development of the Fisheries industry in China. The results show that the degree of subsystem synergy can effectively boost gross value-added per worker of the Fisheries industry for Chinese inland provinces. These provinces show a low level of system synergy. Thus, they need to put efforts into improving the system synergy to spur the development of their Fisheries industries. For coastal provinces, with already moderate levels of synergies, the paper is unable to isolate an association between improvements in system synergy and economic development.

Factors and motivations that drive individuals’ decisions on seafood consumption vary by population group and geographical locations. These factors may differ from one particular species to the other. The purpose of this study is to understand fish/shrimp consumption frequency and consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) more for shrimp locally farmed in Togo. We used a Poisson model to investigate the socioeconomic factors determining fish/shrimp consumption frequency, and a Heckman Selection model to analyze the extent to which consumers are willing to pay extra for locally produced shrimp. To this end, data on fish consumption were collected through a cross-sectional study that analyzed a quantitative survey of consumers (N = 308). Our results show that the populations sampled attach great importance to the quality of fish they consume. The econometric results indicate that the quality of the fish is positively related to fish consumption frequency while the monthly income and proximity of the sea show negative relationships with the outcome variable. In addition, the factors that influence the WTP for shrimp were consuming shrimp and the amount for expenditure on fish/shrimp consumption. Moreover, consumers are willing to pay, on average, 1.2 U.S Dollars (USD) as an extra amount relative to the average price per kilogram, and the extent of their WTP is positively related to the quality of the fish. However, the age of the respondents shows a negative relationship with the value they are willing to pay. In order to fulfill consumers’ needs and preferences, these findings jointly suggest that exceptional steps by the government are needed to value fish/shrimp in a way that persuades and encourages consumers to consume seafood at any age. More importantly, promoting the consumption of fish and shrimp requires action to help improve their quality. Government should: (a) be communicating and raising awareness more among the population on the nutritional value and health benefits of fish/shrimp consumption; (b) support fish/shrimp production through cost reduction actions for the fishermen who in turn can supply fish/shrimp at reasonable prices that encourage fish and shrimp consumption; (c) take appropriate measures to develop a logistics system as an effort to support fish, especially shrimp, supply in a timely way that might help to keep their good appearance and freshness for the consumers’ benefit.