In this study, our aim is to diagnose how two quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) are organized so one can determine the possible role of the city of Chicago, IL, USA, in modifying convective precipitation systems. In this Part I of a two-part study, we employ large-scale analyses, radiosonde soundings, surface observations, and Doppler radar data to diagnose the precursor atmospheric circulations that organize the evolution of two mesoscale convective systems and compare those circulations to radar and precipitation. Several multi-scale processes are found that organize and modify convection over the Chicago metroplex. Two sequential quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS #1 and #2) were organized that propagated over Chicago, IL, USA, during an eight-hour period on 5–6 July 2018. The first squall line (QLCS #1) built from the southwest to the northeast while strengthening as it propagated over the city, and the second (QLCS #2) propagated southeastwards and weakened as it passed over the city in association with a polar cold front. The weak upper-level divergence associated with a diffluent flow poleward of an expansive ridge built over and strengthened a low-level trough and confluence zone, triggering QLCS #1. Convective downdrafts from QLCS #1 produced a cold pool that interacted with multiple confluent low-level jets surrounding and focused on the metroplex urban heat island, thus advecting the convection poleward over the metroplex. The heaviest precipitation occurred just south-southeast of Midway Airport, Chicago. Subsequently, a polar cold front propagated into the metroplex, which triggered QLCS #2. However, the descending air above it under the polar jet and residual cold pool from QLCS #1 rapidly dissipated the cold frontal convection. This represents a case study where very active convection built over the metroplex and was likely modified by it, as evidenced in numerical simulations to be described in Part II.

. Hurricane Florence (2018) was one of the most destructive storms of the 2018 hurricane season. This storm produced a substantial amount of precipitation, which caused immense flooding along the coast. As a result, billions of dollars of damage were done to the coast. This study explored approaches to improve the prediction of the track and intensity of Hurricane Florence (2018) by utilizing the deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and a statistical modeling-based ensemble technique. The Global Forecast System (GFS) data is employed to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hurricane WRF (HWRF) models to produce numerous simulations with various scheme options and starting times. The simulation data from five different NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models including the HWRF, WRF, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), and GFS models, were then interpolated to prepare for the statistical models. With the interpolated data, a hybrid method with multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest, and simple ensemble (SE) was developed. This hybrid method used multiple linear regression and random forest to identify the significant factors for hurricane prediction in the training set, and an averaging ensemble was then applied to the significant factors' data. As verified in the testing data sets, the errors from the hybrid method were reduced, indicating the improvement of the predictability. It is found that our numerical simulations using the HWRF model with a statistical modeling-based ensemble technique improved the accuracy of the track and intensity prediction of Hurricane Florence (2018). Overall, these tools and methods can greatly improve the accuracy of the track and intensity prediction of future hurricanes like Florence and can help ensure better civilian preparedness for a hazardous storm.

California has experienced a surge in wildfires, prompting research into contributing factors, including weather and climate conditions. This study investigates the complex, multiscale interactions between large-scale climate patterns, such as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their influence on moisture and temperature fluctuations, and wildfire dynamics in California. The combined impacts of PDO and BSISO on intraseasonal fire weather changes; the interplay between fire weather index (FWI), relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature in assessing wildfire risks; and geographical variations in the relationship between the FWI and climatic factors within California are examined. The study employs a multi-pronged approach, analyzing wildfire frequency and burned areas alongside climate patterns and atmospheric conditions. The findings reveal significant variability in wildfire activity across different climate conditions, with heightened risks during specific BSISO phases, La-Niña, and cool PDO. The influence of BSISO varies depending on its interaction with PDO. Temperature, relative humidity, and VPD show strong predictive significance for wildfire risks, with significant relationships between FWI and temperature in elevated regions (correlation, r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.05) and FWI and relative humidity along the Sierra Nevada Mountains (r ≤ −0.7, p ≤ 0.05).

The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to simulate the downscale evolving atmospheric dynamical processes conducive to the intensification and propagation of the Tubbs Fire (2017). This wildfire impacted Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, spreading quickly and erratically through complex mountainous terrain due in large part to downslope Diablo Winds. The Tubbs Fire spread over 36,000 acres and destroyed 5,636 structures, killing 22. The simulations and supporting observations during the pre-Diablo Wind period indicate a well-defined inverted surface trough in Northern California’s Central Valley, along with a strong amplifying trough in the mid-troposphere and attendant cold frontogenesis over the Sierra Nevada. Mid-upper tropospheric jet streak flow, along with simulated and observed soundings from Reno, Nevada, indicate a mid-upper tropospheric jet indirect, exit-region descending, secondary circulation in conjunction with lower mid-tropospheric cold air advection caused by the southwestward low-level jet under the upper level jet’s entrance region. These adjustments enabled the organization of a deepening and ascending inversion over the Sierra Nevada, as well as a self-induced wave critical layer between 850 and 700 hPa prior to Diablo Wind formation. As the organizing jet streak departed, the discontinuously stratified atmosphere over the Sierra Nevada and coastal mountains in Northern California provided a favorable environment for mountain wave amplification. Intensifying leeside sinking motion coupled with wave steepening resulted in strong downslope winds in Northern California. Upward propagating mountain waves are present coinciding with the steepening of the isentropic surfaces consistent with the resonant interaction of nonlinear gravity waves. The model also simulated the development of a hydraulic jump in the lower troposphere on the lee side of the mountain range during Diablo Wind development. The simulation and observations indicate that the favorable environment for Diablo Winds resulted from the baroclinic jet-front system propagating over the Sierra Nevada when it produced a highly discontinuously stratified atmosphere favorable for nonlinear mountain wave amplification. However, the main surge of momentum down the leeside is only indirectly coupled with the jet streak’s exit region, being the result of cold frontogenesis, which allows for vertically differential cold air advection and its attendant discontinuously stratified vertical atmospheric structure.

On 30 June 2013, 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots firefighters were killed fighting a wildfire near Yarnell in the mountains of Central Arizona. They succumbed when the wildfire, driven by erratic winds, blocked their escape route and overran their location. A previous study is extended to simulate and analyze the downscale organization of convective circulations that redirected the wildfire, which started from the scale of the Rossby Wave Breaking over North America to a convective gust front that redirected the wildfire, trapping the firefighters. Five stages are found: Stage I, the initial deep prolonged gust front; Stage II, a front-to-rear jet and its ascending motions that organized high-based convection; Stage III, high-based dry microburst-induced downdrafts organized initially by ascending flow in Stage II that transported mass and entropy to the surface; Stage IV; multiple meso-γ-scale high centers and confluence zones formed that encompassed the firefighters’ location, which established a favorable environment leading to Stage V, canyon-scale circulations formed surrounding the fire. The atmosphere thus transitioned from supporting a deep and long-lived convective density current to elevated dry microbursts with mass and wind outflow into a canyon, redirecting the ongoing wildfire.

The Yarnell Hill Fire, triggered by dry lightning on 28 June 2013, was initiated by hot and dry westerly winds, which rapidly shifted to north-northeast by convective-induced outflows. This sudden wind shift led to the demise of 19 firefighters. This study focuses on the environment and its predictive potential in terms of erratically changing the fire spread. Three numerical sensitivity tests are performed investigating the evolving synoptic-meso-β scale environmental wind flow: (1) deactivating the evaporative cooling, (2) deactivating surface-driven diurnal heating/cooling, and (3) removing the mountain. Results show the strong north-northeasterly wind induced by the density current(s) and the diurnal surface sensible heating played the most significant roles in enhancing the mesoscale environment conducive to the rapid change in the fire spread direction. While the mountain played a less significant role in weakening the magnitude of the airflow affecting the fire, it still had an impact. Additionally, the Hot-Dry-Windy (HDW) index is calculated to determine its predictor role with respect to the atmosphere affecting the fire. The focus is not on feedback from explicit fire heating on the larger environment but rather the role of the environmental physical processes in causing the convectively induced rapid wind shifts.

Numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the upstream environment’s impacts on the airflow over the lee slope of the Cuyamaca Mountains (CM) near San Diego, California, during the Cedar Fire that occurred from 25 to 29 October 2003. The upstream environment was largely controlled by a southwest–northeast-oriented upper-tropospheric jet streak that rotated around a positively tilted ridge within the polar jet stream. Three sequential dynamical processes were found to be responsible for modifying the mesoscale environment conducive to low-level momentum and dry air that sustained the Cedar Fire. First, the sinking motion associated with the indirect circulation of the jet streak’s exit region strengthened the midtropospheric flow over the southern Rockies and the lee slope of the Sawatch and San Juan Ranges, thus modestly affecting the airflow by enhancing the downslope wind over the CM. Second, consistent with the coupling process between the upper-level sinking motion, downward momentum transfer, and developing lower-layer mountain waves, a wave-induced critical level over the mountain produced wave breaking, which was characterized by a strong turbulent mixed region with a wind reversal on top of it. This critical level helped to produce severe downslope winds leading to the third stage: a hydraulic jump that subsequently enhanced the downstream extent of the strong winds conducive to the favorable lower-tropospheric environment for rapid fire spread. Consistent with these findings was the deep-layer resonance between the mountain surface and tropopause, which had a strong impact on strengthening the severe downslope winds over the lee slope of the CM accompanying the elevated strong easterly jet at low levels.

In this study, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was adopted to investigate the mechanical and thermal forcing effects associated with the New Guinea Highland (NGH) on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation and rainfall formation and enhancement mechanisms over the island of New Guinea. Our results show that both forces affect the propagation of the MJO07-08, resulting in orographic rainfall production. Even though each forcing helps produce orographic rainfall, the mechanical forcing of the NGH plays a much larger role in the orographic blocking than the thermal forcing. We also found two flow regimes associated with the propagation of MJO07-08 over the NGH. First, in the flow-around regime, the MJO and its associated convective system split around the NGH due to the strong orographic blocking. We can observe this splitting when looking at the splitting stage. Second, the flow-over regime could occur when the mountain is lower than its original height or the flow has a smaller Froude number. A series of numerical experiments indicate that the maximum orographic rainfall increases with increased mountain height; however, the maximum orographic rain decreases when the flow transitions to the flow-around regime. Finally, some common ingredients for orographic rainfall associated with the MJO07-08 passing over the NGH are consistent with those found for tropical cyclones passing over mountains.

The deadly shift of the Yarnell Hill, Arizona wildfire was associated with an environment exhibiting gusty wind patterns in response to organized convectively driven circulations. The observed synoptic (>2500 km) through meso-β (approximately 100 km) scale precursor environment that organized a mid-upper tropospheric cross-mountain mesoscale jet streak circulation and upslope thermally direct flow was examined. Numerical simulations and observations indicated that both circulations played a key role in focusing the upper-level divergence, ascent, downdraft potential, vertical wind shear favoring mobile convective gust fronts, and a microburst. This sequence was initiated at the synoptic scale by a cyclonic Rossby Wave Break (RWB) 72 h prior, followed by an anticyclonic RWB. These RWBs combined to produce a mid-continent baroclinic trough with two short waves ushering in cooler air with the amplifying polar jet. Cool air advection with the second trough and surface heating across the Intermountain West (IW) combined to increase the mesoscale pressure gradient, forcing a mid-upper tropospheric subsynoptic jet around the periphery of the upstream ridge over Southern Utah and Northern New Mexico. Convection was triggered by an unbalanced secondary jetlet circulation within the subsynoptic jet in association with a low-level upslope flow accompanying a mountain plains solenoidal circulation above the Mogollon Rim (MR) and downstream mountains.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a numerical weather prediction model supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to a worldwide community of users. In recognition of the growing use of cloud computing, NCAR is now supporting the model in cloud environments. Specifically, NCAR has established WRF setups with select cloud service providers and produced documentation and tutorials on running WRF in the cloud. Described here are considerations in WRF cloud use and the supported resources, which include cloud setups for the WRF system and a cloud-based tool for model code testing.

In this study, the dynamics of track deflection associated with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sidr (2007) are explored using a numerical weather prediction model. It is found that (a) the simulated track of Sidr is sensitive to flow, orographic, and model vertical structure that change the environmental steering flow leading to the track deflection. In particular, the track of TC Sidr is deflected northwestward for cases with lower domain height, horizontal domain covering only part of Himalaya mountains, and varying mountain heights; (b) the simulated track of TC Sidr, when compared with GFS reanalysis data, is mainly controlled by its deep-layer environmental steering flow as a point vortex; (c) the northwestward deflection with lower domain height is caused by an artificially larger high pressure at lower levels in the vicinity of the Himalayas, due to the upward propagation of wave energy being reflected by the upper domain boundary; (d) the significant northwestward deflection associated with the varying mountain height cases is due to the cyclone vortex being advected by the northeasterly monsoonal flow, which is blocked by the mountains in the corresponding cases with mountains; (e) the northeastward track deflection after the landfall of Sidr is explained by the addition of the frictional force. In summary, the model vertical domain height and the Himalaya mountain representation play key roles in influencing the accuracy of TC Sidr track simulation, compared with other factors, such as the vertical resolution, at least for TC Sidr.

Relative contributions of common ingredients to heavy orographic rainfall associated with the passage of Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Isabel (2003) over the Appalachian Mountains are examined using a numerical weather prediction model. It is found that the key ingredients for producing local heavy orographic rainfall were: high precipitation efficiency, strong low-level flow, strong orographically forced upward motion associated with strong low-level flow over relatively gentle upslope, concave geometry providing local areas of convergence, high moist flow upstream, a relatively large convective system associated with both tropical cyclones (TCs), and relatively slower movement. In addition, neither conditional instability nor potential (convective) instability is found to play essential roles in producing strong upward motion leading to heavy orographic TC rain. A modified Orographic Rain Index (ORI) is proposed as a predictor for heavy orographic TC precipitation, which includes the upstream incoming horizontal wind speed normal to the local orography, the steepness of the mountain, the relative humidity, the TC moving speed, and the horizontal scale of the TC. It is found that the ORI estimated in regions of local maximum rainfall by using fine-resolution numerically simulated results correlate well with rainfall rates for both hurricanes, indicating that it may serve as a predictor for heavy orographic TC rainfall.

Middle and High School Teacher Professional Development Through University Research Experiences and Curriculum DevelopmentA professional development model for middle and high school STEM teachers has beendeveloped, implemented over two years, and assessed. The model involves a partnershipbetween the middle and high school teachers and administrators, education graduate students andfaculty members, STEM graduate students and faculty members, and a NOAA research center.The highlight of the teacher experience was a three week intensive Summer Research Institute inwhich teachers developed modules connected to Earth systems science research, NASA research,and North Carolina science and mathematics standards-based curricula. Twenty high schoolscience and mathematics teachers participated in the Institute both summers. This arrangementprovided an opportunity for the teachers to explore together how STEM concepts can beintegrated between mathematics and science courses. During the second summer, the high schoolteachers served as mentors for twenty middle school science and math teachers from the sameschool district region. This arrangement provided an opportunity for the teachers to exploretogether how STEM concepts are taught and understood by students as students matriculate frommiddle to high school STEM classes. Web 2.0 technologies were demonstrated and utilized,which resulted in teacher leadership related to technology affordances at the end of the Institute.The professional development model was assessed through surveying and focus group interviewswith the participants along with evaluation of the curriculum developed.

Based on the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM)-measured rainfall and estimated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fields, it is found that 2007–08 Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO07-08) went through blocking, splitting, and merging stages when it passed over the New Guinea Highlands (NGH). The TRMM-estimated OLR fields fail to capture detailed TRMM rainfall field and thus is not suitable to serve as proxy for rainfall, as also found in previous studies. The mechanism of orographic blocking is explained by strong orographic blocking on the incoming, low-Froude number, and moist flow, which belonged to the flow-around regime. This is evidenced by estimating the Froude number by upstream soundings. The strong blocking forced the flow to go around the mountains on NGH, leading to the splitting of flow and MJO precipitating system and the merging at the southeast tip of New Guinea. Orographic, MJO, and cyclone clouds were shown in both observed and model-simulated results. The major differences of the model-simulated and TRMM-measured precipitation are as follows: (a) the model-simulated rainfall area is much larger than that covered by the observed rainfall and (b) even though they both show comparable maximum rainfall rate, the rainfall estimated by TRMM reveals more localized rainfall spots, which is unexpected since the WRF simulation uses a relatively fine resolution (5 km). In summary, during the blocking stage, the mountains have slowed down the MJO propagation and increased the rainfall amount upstream of the local mountains, while during the splitting and merging stages, the mountains have made significant impacts on the MJO rainfall distribution.

The generation and enhancement mechanisms and essential ingredients for the extreme rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009) passing over Taiwan's Central Mountain Range (CMR) were investigated by using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. First, we found that the extreme rainfall was due to the essential orographic rain ingredients: high precipitation efficiency, strong low-level jet, steep terrain, high moisture upstream, large convective system, and slower movement of the typhoon. Second, the Orographic Rain Index (ORI) proposed by Rostom (2015) was modified and tested by twelve (12) TC cases and found it has a good correlation with daily rainfall. Thus it can be used to help the prediction of extreme orographic TC rainfall. Third, we found there are two types of orographic rainfall mechanisms associated with Morakot, namely initiation and enhancement. These rainfall mechanisms may occur simultaneously M different locations, such as in northeast and southwest CMR. The orographic rain in the northeastern CMR was initiated by the high and steep CMR while the typhoon was still 200 km away. The rainfall was enhanced gradually and continually by the CMR when Morakot was approaching it, which produced a maximum rainfall of 265 mm/3 h starting at 1800 UTC August 7. The rain then decreased when the typhoon's eyewall structure and convection were damaged and weakened, respectively, when it invaded the high and steep CMR. Orographic rain was generated in the southwestern CMR initially when the conditionally unstable, southwesterly monsoonal flow impinged on the southern CMR. It was enhanced afterward by the merged monsoonal flow and Morakot's rainband leading to an extreme maximum rainfall of 311 mm/3 h starting 0000 UTC August 8. Later, this region of orographically enhanced TC rain moved northward along the western flank of the CMR. At last, we presented a conceptual model summarizing four key processes associated with the generation and enhancement of orographic TC rain over the southwest of CMR during the passage of typhoon Morakot (2009).

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated by the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model to understand the mechanism of a secondary eyewall formation (SEF) prior to its last landfall. The storm underwent a series of structural changes that were deemed necessary for the concentric cycle to begin, which included (1) increased rainband activity outside the primary eyewall in the hours before, mostly related to an intensifying main feeder band, (2) close to initiation of the SEF, an updraft (explained by a pre-existing hypothesis) emerged outside the primary eyewall near the top of the boundary layer (BL), (3) this updraft then intensified and extended both upward and outward, while the storm intensified and approached SEF, (4) eventually, the updraft coupled with the upward motion associated with rainband-related convection near the SEF radius, and (5) once the alignment occurred, the deep updraft quickly organized to support deep convection that led to SEF within hours of initiation. The coupling of updrafts emanating from the BL with the environmental upward motion associated with the pre-existing rainband activity is proposed to be the key mechanism for the SEF initiation in this case.

This study explores the impact of a nonhydrostatic dynamical core in high-resolution regional climate simulations using an aquaplanet framework. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to conduct simulations with both hydrostatic (H) and nonhydrostatic (NH) solvers at horizontal grid spacings (x) of 36, 12, and 4km. The differences between the H and NH simulated precipitation (P) are notable even at x=12km in the intertropical convergence zone and the transition region to the drier subtropics. At gray zone grid spacing (12km and 4km) over the tropics, P is sensitive to whether a cumulus parameterization scheme is used or not. With an idealized Witch of Agnesi land mountain, differences in the precipitation and circulation (vertical velocity) between the H and NH simulations are significant even at x=36km in the tropics due largely to the strong feedbacks related to moist processes. The differences increase as the model grid spacing and mountain half width (a) are reduced, accompanied by a shift toward a more nonhydrostatic flow regime at a=24km. Latent heat release drastically enhances the differences between the NH and H simulations and extends the effect of nonhydrostatic dynamics to a broader region over the mountain and downstream over the tropics. Overall, differences exist between H and NH simulations even at resolutions between 12 and 36km, but the differences are sensitive to the representations of moist physics and other features such as horizontal diffusion used in the WRF model.