Aim: The geography and genesis of diversity remain an enduring topic in ecology and evolution. Mediterranean Climate Ecosystems (MCEs), with their high plant diversities in winter rainfall climates, pose a challenge to popular hypotheses evoking high water availability and temperature as necessary for the evolution of high diversity. We test the hypothesis of environmental stability as a driver for the evolution of regional-scale floristic diversity using speleothem oxygen (delta O-18) and carbon (delta C-13) isotopic values as proxies for past climatic variability in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) and other MCEs.Location: south-western Africa, California, Mediterranean Basin.Taxon: Plantae.Methods: We present new speleothem delta O-18 and delta C-13 records from a cave near Robertson in the western CFR. Stable isotope samples included in the analyses cover the time intervals between 240 and 670 ka BP with hiatuses at 630-500 ka and 360-310 ka. The dispersion of these stable isotope records is used as a measure for climatic variability. We compare our new analyses to speleothem records that cover full glacial and interglacial conditions in other MCEs (California and the Mediterranean Basin) as well as in eastern regions of the CFR. All sites used in this comparison have lower vascular plant biodiversity than the western CFR.Results: Analyses of the dispersion of the delta O-18 and delta C-13 datasets suggest that the highly diverse western CFR experienced climatic stability across several glacial-interglacial cycles, compared with the less diverse regions within and outside of the CFR.Main Conclusion: This result provides support for the hypothesis that lower extinction rates associated with Pleistocene biome stability may explain the higher diversity in the CFR relative to other MCEs.

Restoration of degraded subtropical succulent thicket, via the planting of Portulacaria afra (spekboom) truncheons, is the focus of a public works programme funded by the South African government. The goals of the programme, which started in 2004, are to create jobs, sequester carbon, restore biodiversity, reduce erosion, improve soil water holding capacity and catalyse private sector investment for upscaling of restoration. Here we report on a region-wide experiment to identify factors that can improve project success. Measures of success were survivorship and annual aboveground biomass carbon sequestration (ABCsr) of spekboom truncheons some 33–57 months after planting—starting in March 2008—into 173 fenced plots (0.25 ha) located throughout the global extent of spekboom thicket vegetation. We also collected data for 18 explanatory variables under the control of managers, and an additional 39 variables reflecting soil physical and chemical characteristics and rainfall patterns post restoration, all beyond the influence of managers. Since the latter covariates were available for only 83 plots, we analysed the two data sets separately. We used a prediction rule ensemble to determine the most important predictors of restoration success. There was great variation in percentage survivorship (median = 24, range = 0–100%) and ABCsr (median = 0.009, range = 0–0.38 t C ha −1 yr −1 ). The model using management variables explained less variance (53%) in survivorship than the model incorporating additional soil and rainfall covariates (62%). ABCsr models were better fits (78 and 88% variance explained, respectively). All model configurations identified browse intensity as a highly influential predictor of restoration success. Predicted success was highest for plots located in target habitat; however, only 45% were thus located, suggesting the need for expert input and habitat modelling for improving target habitat identification. Frost exposure was another important predictor influencing all models but was likely a consequence of locating sites off target habitat. Sites planted on equatorward slopes during the warm season showed reduced carbon sequestration, possibly due to elevated soil moisture stress associated with high radiation loads. Physiographic factors associated with improved restoration success were location on sloping ground (reduced frost exposure), increasing longitude (more warm-season rainfall) and increasing latitude (less frost coastwards). Few trends were evident among post-restoration climatic factors beyond the control of managers. Higher rainfall during the year post restoration had a negative impact on carbon sequestration while higher rain during the early months post restoration had a positive effect on both carbon sequestration and survivorship. Soil factors showed little importance for the survivorship model, whereas silt content, % K and Mg CEC emerged as predictors of carbon sequestration. Our results have direct relevance for improving the success of landscape-scale restoration projects envisioned for the ca. 8,930 km 2 of degraded spekboom thicket.

The Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa was critical to the evolution of early modern humans (Homo sapiens) during the Pleistocene. The now submerged continental shelf formed its own ecosystem, the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (PAP), where early humans lived and foraged. Grazing animals living on the plain might have migrated east and west tracking seasonally varying rains—a hypothesis tested here by examining δ13C and δ18O of serially-drilled teeth from seven ungulate genera: Alcelaphus, Connochaetes, Antidorcus, Redunca, Damaliscus, and Hippotragus. Modern observations and paleoecological reconstructions indicate that summer rainfall areas to the east have more C4 grasses while the winter rainfall areas to the west have more C3 grasses, and that summer and winter rains differ in δ18O. Thus, we analyze δ13C and δ18O preserved in herbivore teeth from the site of PP30 (a hyena den dating to ∼151 ka) to infer diet and water source throughout tooth formation. On a generic level, none of the samples exhibit δ13C or δ18O values that differ significantly from a taxon that likely foraged locally through the year (Southern reedbuck, Redunca arundium). Overall, results indicate that the PAP could support herbivore populations year-round without substantial migration, providing an ecosystem ideal for human inhabitants.

The extent to which modern humans relied upon intertidal resources, and the impact that this food source had on their cognitive and social development, remains contentious. An outstanding question is whether such a resource could have provided a sufficiently reliable and essentially continuous supply of resources to support communities during the Middle Stone Age (MSA). The south Cape coast of South Africa contains abundant evidence dating back to 164 000 years ago (Ica) to show that the intertidal zone of this area was highly productive and was intensively used by MSA humans. In this paper we present the results of an experimental approach to answering the question of whether resources could have been sufficiently resilient to support communities similar in size to those of the Middle Stone Age. For a period of 10 months, we monitored the depletion of shellfish in the two dominant types of marine habitat (aeolianite and Table Mountain Sandstone) that occur on the south Cape coast, following intensive harvesting by indigenous foragers every two weeks or every four weeks. We found no evidence of lasting depletion in either type of habitat at either foraging frequency. We also found that replenishment of the foraged areas soon occurred (within two weeks) by repopulation from deeper water rather than by a long-shore movement. The most important prey species in this process was the highly mobile gastropod mollusk Turbo sarmaticus, which made up 81.9% of calorific harvest. Overall, mobile species made up 92.2% of the calorific harvest. Another factor that contributed to the resilience of the system is the nature of the coastline of the south Cape. This is characterised by extended shallow bathymetries of hard substrata that provide "pantries" of mobile invertebrates for restocking depleted intertidal habitats. We argue that the presence of such a reliable, easily procured, and nutritionally beneficial source of food may have played an important role in the development of more complex types of social behaviour than previously existed. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

It has been hypothesised that high-intensity fires prevent fire-dependent fynbos from being replaced by fire-avoiding subtropical thicket on dune landscapes of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR). Recent extensive fires provided an opportunity to test this hypothesis. We posit that (1) fire-related thicket shrub mortality would be size dependent, with smaller individuals suffering higher mortality than larger ones; and (2) that survival and resprouting vigour of thicket shrubs would be negatively correlated with fire severity. We assessed survival and resprouting vigour post-fire in relation to fire severity and pre-fire shrub size at two dune landscapes in the CFR. Fire severity was scored at the base of the shrub and categorised into four levels. Pre-fire size was quantified as an index of lignotuber diameter and stem count of each shrub. Resprouting vigour consisted of two variables; resprouting shoot count and resprouting canopy volume. A total of 29 species were surveyed. Post-fire survival of thicket was high (83–85%). We found that smaller shrubs did have a lower probability of post-fire survival than larger individuals but could detect no consistent relationship between shrub mortality and fire severity. Fire severity had a positive effect on resprouting shoot count but a variable effect on resprouting volume. Pre-fire size was positively related to survival and both measures of resprouting vigour. We conclude that thicket is resilient to high-severity fires but may be vulnerable to frequent fires. Prescribed high-intensity fires in dune landscapes are unlikely to reduce the extent of thicket and promote fynbos expansion.

It has been hypothesised that high-intensity fires prevent fire-dependent fynbos from being replaced by fire-avoiding subtropical thicket on dune landscape of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR).Recent extensive fires provided an opportunity to test this hypothesis.We posit that (1) fire-related thicket shrub mortality would be size dependent, with smaller individuals suffering higher mortality than larger ones; and (2) that survival and resprouting vigour of thicket shrubs would be negatively correlated with fire severity.We assessed survival and resprouting vigour post-fire in relation to fire severity and pre-fire shrub size at two dune landscapes in the CFR.Fire severity was scored at the base of the shrub and categorised into four levels.Pre-fire size was quantified as an index of lignotuber diameter and stem count of each shrub.Resprouting vigour consisted of two variables; resprouting shoot count and resprouting canopy volume.A total of 29 species were surveyed.Post-fire survival of thicket was high (83-85%).We found that smaller shrubs did have a lower probability of post-fire survival than larger individuals but could detect no consistent relationship between shrub mortality and fire severity.Fire severity had a

Environmental sustainability rests on human choice and action. Understanding these may assist in determining the factors that predict or influence an individual’s behaviour towards the environment. In South Africa, approximately 80% of the most threatened vegetation types are in the hands of the private agricultural community. In the Little Karoo, which is situated in the Succulent Karoo biodiversity hotspot, unsustainable land-use practices including ostrich flock breeding threaten this region’s lowland biodiversity. We interviewed ostrich farmers in the Oudtshoorn Basin to quantify latent variables thought to represent components of conservation opportunity: environmental attitude, conservation knowledge, conservation behaviour, and willingness to collaborate with agricultural, environmental and conservation organisations. Three groups of land managers were identified: (1) younger land managers (<31 years’ farming experience) with bigger farms (≥2050 ha) who had above-average scores for all four indicators, (2) older farmers (≥31 years’ farming experience) who had above-average scores for environmental attitude and conservation knowledge, average scores for environmental attitude, but low willingness to collaborate, and (3) a large group of younger farmers (<31 years’ farming experience) with smaller properties (<2050 ha) who had low to average scores for all four indicators. Farmers in the first two groups represent the best opportunities for conservation, although different strategies would have to be employed to engage them given the current low willingness to collaborate among older farmers. Land managers were more willing to collaborate with agricultural than conservation organisations, pointing to a need to involve agricultural organisations in championing more environmentally sustainable ostrich breeding practices. Significance: Achievement of biodiversity conservation targets requires stewardship in production landscapes outside protected areas, which necessitates identification of farmers who present conservation opportunity, i.e. who are willing and able to participate in conservation. Plant biodiversity in the Little Karoo has been severely degraded through ostrich flock breeding, but ostrich farmers consider their practices to be ecologically sustainable. In the Little Karoo, land managers with more years of farming experience, and younger farmers with larger properties, represented the greatest opportunity for interventions to promote more biodiversity-friendly ostrich farming practices.

We conducted the first dynamic downscaling of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate over southern Africa using a regional climate model. Eight coupled global climate model (CGCM) projections of LGM climate were downscaled to 8 km resolution, and compared to a downscaling of present-day climate. it is projected that temperatures were significantly lower during the LGM compared to the present-day, with annual average temperatures 4-6 degrees C lower along the eastern escarpment, south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and western escarpment. Southern Africa is projected to have been generally wetter during the LGM, with a significant extension in the northward reach of frontal rainfall. The largest rainfall increases are projected for the south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and the western escarpment of South Africa, but with rainfall decreases projected for the Cape south coast region. Rainfall seasonality is projected to have been significantly different from that of the present-day, with an all-year rainfall region plausibly extending as far north and east as the present-day Free State and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Evaluations of the downscalings against key published proxy records for the LGM from southern Africa suggest good agreement and few deviations. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed ‘recruitment’). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2–3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall.

Local land-use planning procedures are increasingly recognized as potentially crucial to ensure off-reserve biodiversity protection. Mainstreaming systematic conservation planning maps in these decision-making procedures has been proposed as a mechanism to achieve this. However, research is lacking on how to convince officials and politicians to change their behaviour and include the maps in their decision-making. Social marketing is a tool commonly used to effect behaviour change in many sectors but its application in conservation is limited. In the formative research phase of a social marketing study we interviewed locally elected politicians in four coastal municipalities in South Africa. We found that conservation and environmental issues play virtually no role in their work; however, they do attribute value to the natural environment. Land-use planning procedures are considered important but dysfunctional and the role of conservation is perceived negatively in their municipalities. Their information-seeking behaviour is clearly localized. We present a marketing analysis of these results and argue for improving the attractiveness of the product: the maps should be more option- than veto-based and should identify locally relevant ecosystem services. Locally significant information should be provided at a time and location convenient for politicians. We conclude that engagement with councillors should be proactive, refer to land-use planning and services from nature' rather than biodiversity' and use terminology and information that is locally oriented and meaningful from the politician's perspective. The analysis highlights the usefulness of the marketing approach for conservation.

The New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale is a commonly used tool to investigate the degree of ecocentricity of participants, i.e. the extent to which they endorse pro-nature views. Here we used the scale as part of the formative research for a conservation project aimed at persuading land use planning stakeholders associated with municipalities to use the conservation priority maps produced by conservation planners. In order to assess its capacity to differentiate between groups of stakeholders according to their degree of ecocentricity, we applied the NEP scale to 53 participants comprising 16 officials responsible for land use planning issues and 37 locally elected councilors (politicians) from South African municipalities. We also applied the Inclusion of Nature in Self (INS) scale – a single-item graphic measure – to the councilors in our sample who all hold anti-conservation views, in order to explore their connectedness to nature. The NEP scale scores were effective in differentiating councilors and officials, and people of Xhosa and other cultural groups, suggesting that the scale has good potential as a component of a social assessment for conservation projects. We found little concordance between the NEP and the INS scales, owing largely to Xhosa participants who mostly scored low for the former, and high for the latter scale. We recommend the use of both scales for social assessments for conservation projects in multi-cultural contexts.

An accepted criterion for measuring the success of ecosystem restoration is the return of biodiversity relative to intact reference ecosystems. The emerging global carbon economy has made landscape‐scale restoration of severely degraded Portulacaria afra (spekboom)‐dominated subtropical thicket, by planting multiple rows of spekboom truncheons, a viable land‐use option. Although large amounts of carbon are sequestered when planting a monoculture of spekboom, it is unknown whether this is associated with the return of other thicket biodiversity components. We used available carbon stock data from degraded, restored, and intact stands at one site, and sampled carbon stocks at restored stands at another site in the same plant community. We also sampled plant community composition at both sites. The total carbon stock of the oldest (50 years) post‐restoration stand (250.8 ± 14 t C ha−1) approximated that of intact stands (245 t C ha−1) and we observed a general increase in carbon content with restoration age (71.4 ± 24 t C ha−1 after 35 and 167.9 ± 20 t C ha−1 after 50 years). A multiple correspondence analysis separated degraded stands from stands under restoration based on ground cover, floristic composition, and total carbon stock. Older post‐restoration and intact stands were clustered according to woody canopy recruit abundance. Our results suggest that spekboom is an ecosystem engineer that promotes spontaneous return of canopy species and other components of thicket biodiversity. The spekboom canopy creates a cooler micro‐climate and a dense litter layer, both likely to favor the recruitment of other canopy species.

Combining the process of learning and the theory of planned behaviour into a new theoretical framework provides an opportunity to explore the impact of data on waste behaviour, and consequently on waste management, in South Africa. Fitting the data to the theoretical framework shows that there are only three constructs which have a significant effect on behaviour, viz experience, knowledge, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). Knowledge has a significant influence on all three of the antecedents to behavioural intention (attitude, subjective norm and PBC). However, it is PBC, and not intention, that has the greatest influence on waste behaviour. While respondents may have an intention to act, this intention does not always manifest as actual waste behaviour, suggesting limited volitional control. The theoretical framework accounts for 53.7% of the variance in behaviour, suggesting significant external influences on behaviour not accounted for in the framework. While the theoretical model remains the same, respondents in public and private organisations represent two statistically significant sub-groups in the data set. The theoretical framework accounts for 47.8% of the variance in behaviour of respondents in public waste organisations and 57.6% of the variance in behaviour of respondents in private organisations. The results suggest that respondents in public and private waste organisations are subject to different structural forces that shape knowledge, intention, and resultant waste behaviour.

Question: Will the planting of nursery-propagated woody canopy species within severely degraded Arid Subtropical Thicket once dominated by the succulent shrub Portulacaria afra (Spekboom) be an efficient restoration strategy to employ in addition to the current restoration protocol of planting a monoculture of P. afra truncheons?Location: Krompoort, a farm located on the northern footslopes of the Groot Winterhoek mountains, near Kirkwood, Eastern Cape, South Africa.Methods: We planted, in degraded, intact and three differently aged post-restoration (P. afra truncheons) sites, nursery-propagated individuals of two woody canopy dominants (Pappea capensis and Searsia longispina), and two inter-canopy shrubs (Lycium ferocissimum and Rhigozum obovatum) in Sep 2008 (spring). The experiment was repeated again in May 2009 (autumn) and a succulent canopy species (P. afra) was added. We assessed restoration success in terms of the survival of planted individuals after 24 mo (spring planting) and 12 mo (autumn planting). The estimated cost of a restoration effort to establish two woody canopy dominant species with the large-scale planting of P. afra was calculated and compared with that of the already established protocol of planting only P. afra truncheons.Results: Survival after spring (24 mo) and autumn (12 mo) plantings of the two woody canopy species was less than 5%, whereas survival of L. ferocissimum was low (19%), R. obovatum good (70%) and P. afra excellent (100%). Contrary to expectations, survival was not related to a gradient of intactness encompassing degraded, restoration and intact treatments that are associated with increasing biomass and soil carbon. The costs of incorporating the four woody canopy species into the restoration programme's protocol were 2.4 times the costs of restoring with P. afra alone.Conclusions: Planting propagules of canopy species other than P. afra is likely to render the programme economically unfeasible, depending on the price of carbon. We conclude that biodiversity goals for the restoration programme are better achieved via spontaneous recruitment of woody canopy and other species, even though this may take more than 40 yr post restoration.

An empirical study was undertaken with 31 organisations submitting data to the South African Waste Information System (SAWIS) in order to explore the relationship between data and resultant waste knowledge generated through a process of learning. The results show that of the three constructs of knowledge (experience, data/information, and theory), experience has the greatest influence on building waste knowledge, nearly twice that of data/information and three times that of theory. Together the three constructs account for 54.1% of the variance in knowledge. Respondents from municipalities and private waste organisations reflect two distinct sub-groups in the data set. While the theoretical model remains the same for the two sub-groups, the way in which knowledge is constructed, and the variance in knowledge explained by the model, differs for the two. A mixed methods research design, combining quantitative statistical analysis and rich qualitative data, contributes to a comprehensive interpretation of the role of waste data in building knowledge in South Africa. While waste data has a minor influence on building knowledge, respondents acknowledge that waste data does have a positive impact on the way their organisations manage waste. However, it is not the data, but rather the resultant waste knowledge and raised level of awareness that causes the operational response. Experience is obtained predominantly through learning from others. Respondents in municipalities, emphasised learning from consultants, landfill site contractors, and colleagues in city-twinning programmes, while respondents in private waste companies, emphasised learning from experienced, senior colleagues.

Abstract  Spatial prioritization techniques are applied in conservation‐planning initiatives to allocate conservation resources. Although typically they are based on ecological data (e.g., species, habitats, ecological processes), increasingly they also include nonecological data, mostly on the vulnerability of valued features and economic costs of implementation. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of conservation actions implemented through conservation‐planning initiatives is a function of the human and social dimensions of social‐ecological systems, such as stakeholders’ willingness and capacity to participate. We assessed human and social factors hypothesized to define opportunities for implementing effective conservation action by individual land managers (those responsible for making day‐to‐day decisions on land use) and mapped these to schedule implementation of a private land conservation program. We surveyed 48 land managers who owned 301 land parcels in the Makana Municipality of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa. Psychometric statistical and cluster analyses were applied to the interview data so as to map human and social factors of conservation opportunity across a landscape of regional conservation importance. Four groups of landowners were identified, in rank order, for a phased implementation process. Furthermore, using psychometric statistical techniques, we reduced the number of interview questions from 165 to 45, which is a preliminary step toward developing surrogates for human and social factors that can be developed rapidly and complemented with measures of conservation value, vulnerability, and economic cost to more‐effectively schedule conservation actions. This work provides conservation and land management professionals direction on where and how implementation of local‐scale conservation should be undertaken to ensure it is feasible.

African elephant and black rhinoceros – both megaherbivores – impact negatively on the abundance of succulent plants, including tree succulents, in South Africa’s subtropical thicket. We sampled 35 sites in subtropical thicket to assess historical and contemporary impacts of African elephant and black rhinoceros on the population structure of three species of succulent tree euphorbia. Population age structures were highly variable and showed no speciesspecific effects. Almost half the sites had growing populations dominated by young individuals. Sites having contemporary impacts had significantly fewer individuals in the 30–75 years age range, but this effect declined with increasing terrain slope. Eighty-one percent of sites assumed to have been impacted by megaherbivores historically had individuals that predated rhino and elephant extirpation in the region. This and other population age structure data indicate that megaherbivores and tree euphorbias coexisted historically on terrain of low relief. However, in areas not subject to contemporary impacts, euphorbia populations are likely to be much higher now than historically, owing to population relaxation after the extirpation of megaherbivores in the mid 1800s. Given the sensitivity of tree euphorbias to megaherbivore impacts, managers should consider monitoring the population structure of these species in order to identify thresholds of potential concern regarding megaherbivore impacts.